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  • Gold Price Remains at Risk Below $1310 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Remains at Risk Below $1310 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price started a downside move from the $1340 swing high against the US Dollar and traded below $1310.
    • – There is a declining and contracting triangle pattern forming with resistance at $1310 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for July 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $42.3B, as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows were $1.3B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for a rise in flows from the last reading of $34.4B to $42.3B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $42.3B, as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows were down to $1.3B. The total Net TIC Flows were $-7.3B, down from the last revised reading of $5.9B. , The report added that:

     

    The sum total in July of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $7.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private inflows were $6.0 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $13.3 billion.

     

    Overall, gold price might continue to struggle in the short term and could even break the $1300 handle.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    After an impressive run, Gold price found sellers above $1350-60 levels against the US Dollar and started correcting lower. The price declined and broke a couple of important support levels like the 100 hourly simple moving average, $1340, $1325 and $1310.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price recently traded as low as $1304.56 and attempted a minor correction. However, it is struggling to even test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1334.21 high to $1304.56 low. There are many hurdles on the upside, and it seems like there is a declining and contracting triangle pattern forming with resistance at $1310 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    The price might continue to face sellers and it is most likely to decline below the recent low of $1304.56. Above $1310, the $1315 level and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1334.21 high to $1304.56 low are key hurdles.

     

    To sum up, gold price remains in the bearish zone and sellers might soon attempt a break of the $1300 handle in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Correcting From $1325 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Correcting From $1325 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price rocketed higher recently and traded above the $1320 level against the US Dollar before starting a correction.
    • – The price has moved down and broke a bullish trend line with support at $1310 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in China, the NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was a rise from the last reading of 51.4 to 51.7.

     

    China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in China, the NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The market was positioned for a minor decline from the last reading of 51.4 to 51.3.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there was a rise from the last reading of 51.4 to 51.7. The non-manufacturing PMI on the other hand, posted a decline from the last reading of 54.5 to 53.4. The CLIP report added that:

    From the 13 sub-index, compared with the previous month, the production index, the new order index, purchase index, import index, purchase price index, ex-factory price index, production and business activities expected to rise, the remaining six indices fell slightly The In the upside index, the purchase price index, the ex-factory price index rose more than 1 percentage point, the other index rose less.

     

    Overall, gold price might continue to correct lower in the near term, but remains supported around the $1290 level.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    There was a sharp rise in Gold price above the $1300 level against the US Dollar. The price rocketed higher and broke the $1310 and $1320 resistance level to trade towards the $1325 level where it founds selling interest.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price later started a correction from the $1325.91 high and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.91 low $1325.91 high. The downside move was such that the price even broke the $1315 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The price even traded below a bullish trend line with support at $1310 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. At the moment, it is finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.91 low $1325.91 high.

     

    However, there is a bearish trend line on the upside waiting to act as a resistance near $1305 for another downside push towards the $1300 and $1292 support levels.

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  • Gold Price Testing Crucial Support of $1264 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Testing Crucial Support of $1264 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price remained in an uptrend and traded towards $1275 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line with support at $1264 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July 2017 was published.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast, as there was a decrease from the last reading of 57.8 to 56.3.

     

    US ISM Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July 2017 was published. The market was positioned for a minor decline from the last reading of 57.8 to 56.5.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast, as there was a decrease from the last reading of 57.8 to 56.3. The New Orders Index was down by around 3.1 percentage points to 60.4 percent, and the Production Index also posted a decline of a 1.8 percentage point to 60.6. The report added that:

    The Employment Index registered 55.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the June reading of 57.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.4 percent, a 1.6 percentage point decrease from the June reading of 57 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the June reading of 49 percent.

     

    Overall, gold price dips remains supported as long as the $1264 support is intact in the near term.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    There were continuous gains in Gold price as it moved above the $1265 resistance against the US Dollar. The upside move was gained traction, as the price was also able to surpass $1270 for a high near $1273.92.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price later started a correction from a bearish trend line at $1274 on the hourly chart and traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1261.51 low $1273.92 high. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line with support at $1264 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    At the moment, the price is finding support near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1261.51 low $1273.92 high and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Overall, it seems like the $1264-62 area is a major support and can be considered as a buy zone in the near term.

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  • Gold Price To Continue Higher Towards $1260 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price To Continue Higher Towards $1260 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price maintained a bullish tone and traded above $1250 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a connecting bullish trend line with support at $1252 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for July 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was an increase from the last reading of 52.0 to 53.2.

     

    US Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for July 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 52.0.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there is an expectation of an increase from the last reading of 52.0 to 53.2 in the PMI. Moreover, the US Composite Output Index posted a new month high of 54.2. The report added that:

    The pickup in business activity growth was driven by a steeper increase in manufacturing production in July (‘flash’ output index at 54.3, up from 52.6 in June). Meanwhile, service providers indicated that activity growth was unchanged from June’s five-month peak.

     

    Overall, there can be minor corrections in Gold price, but it remains supported above the $1250-52 levels.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    There were good gains in Gold price since it traded above the $1245 and $1250 level recently against the US Dollar. The upside move was decent, as there was a new monthly high formed at $1258.76 from where a correction was initiated.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1242.61 low $1258.76 high. The downside move was prevented by a connecting bullish trend line with support at $1252 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1242.61 low $1258.76 high also acted as a support zone. The price is already recovering from $1253 and may continue to move higher.

     

    On the upside, a retest of $1258 is most likely in the near term. Above $1258, the price may break $1260 for further gains in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Looks Poised For Gains Above $1238 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Looks Poised For Gains Above $1238 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price continued to decline and moved below the $1218 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is an ascending channel pattern with resistance at $1238 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Today in China, the hosing price index for June 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was neutral, as there was an increase of 10.2%, just below the last 10.4%.

     

    Chinese Housing Price Index

    Today in China, the hosing price index for June 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of about 10% in June 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was neutral, as there was an increase of 10.2%, just below the last 10.4%. Recently, there was a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, titled “Steady and Sound Development Momentum of National Economy was More Visible in the First Half Year”. It highlighted a few positive points such as a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percent in the GDP by 38,149.0 billion yuan in Q1 2017, and acceleration in the Industrial Production.

     

    Overall, there can be more gains in Gold price in the near term above $1238-1240 if it stays above $1220.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    It seems like Gold price has a good bullish run recently as it moved above $1225 and $1230 against the US Dollar. The upside move was solid, as there was a H4 clove above the $1230 resistance, suggesting buyer’s strength.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price is following an ascending channel pattern with resistance at $1238 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the price is trading near the channel resistance at $1238. So, there is a chance of a minor dip towards $1236-35 in the short term.

     

    On the downside, an initial support is around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1232.71 low to $1238.21 high.

     

    The price remains supported near buy zones at $1235 and may soon resume its upward movement. A break above $1238 could open the doors for more gains above $1240 in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Maintains Bearish Bias Below $1230 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Maintains Bearish Bias Below $1230 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price continued to decline and moved below the $1218 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines with resistance at $1218 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for June 2017 released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China posted a decline of 0.2% (MoM).

     

    Chinese Consumer Price Index

    Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for June 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the CPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was on the lower side, as the Chinese CPI posted a decline of 0.2% (MoM). In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.5%, which was in line with the forecast and same as the last reading. The Chinese Producer Price Index also posted an in line forecast increase of 5.5% in June 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    Overall, the result was neutral and might not help Gold to recover above the $1220-1230 resistance in the near term.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    In the last analysis, we discussed that selling rallies in Gold price near $1240 may be considered as long as it is below $1248. The price failed to gain momentum and extended its decline below $1235 to break the $1230 support area.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    During the downside move, the price broke an important support area near $1218-1220, which may now act as a resistance if the price corrects higher. It recently traded as low as $1207.26 and currently attempting a recovery.

     

    The price is currently above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1228.31 high to $1207.26 low. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines with resistance at $1218 forming on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    The trend line resistance also coincides with the $1218 pivot and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1228.31 high to $1207.26 low. So, as long as the price is below $1220, it may resume the downtrend and could retest $1207 in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Remains Supported Near $1252 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Remains Supported Near $1252 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price is facing hurdles near $1258 against the US Dollar, but remains supported on the downside.
    • – There is a decent bullish trend line with support at $1252 forming on the hourly chart of Gold price vs USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June 2017 (Prelim) released by the Markit Economics posted a decline from 52.7 to 52.1.

     

    US Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a minor increase from the last reading of 52.7 to 53.0.

     

    However, the actual result was on the lower side, as the preliminary reading posted a decline from 52.7 to 52.1. The report added that “U.S. private sector firms recorded a further solid expansion of business activity in June, but there was a loss of momentum since May“.

     

    Overall, gold price remains supported as long as above $250 and likely to trade higher in the near term.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price traded nicely during the past few days and closed above the $1250 resistance against the US Dollar. There was a test of the $1258-60 zone where buyers struggled to retain the bullish momentum, and a result, a correction wave was initiated.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    A downside wave was initiated and the price moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1246 low to $1258 high. Furthermore, there is a decent bullish trend line with support at $1252 forming on the hourly chart of Gold price vs USD.

     

    The same trend line support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1246 low to $1258 high. So, if the price continues to move down, it is likely to face buyers near the trend line support at $1252.

     

    Only a break and close below $1250 would ignite further losses towards $1245. On the upside, the price needs to break the $1260 resistance in order to gain momentum towards the next major resistance, which is at $1264.

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  • Gold Price Forecast – New Downtrend Initiated Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Forecast – New Downtrend Initiated Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price after an impressive run towards $1264-65 against the US Dollar struggled to retain momentum.
    • – The price moved down, and broke a major bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at $1258.50.
    • – Recently in the US, the number of New Home Sales for April 2017 released by the US Census Bureau posted 0.569M, less than the forecast of 0.621M.

     

    US New Home Sales

    The US recently saw the release of the number of New Home Sales for April 2017 by the US Census Bureau. The market was positioned for the New Home Sales to be 0.621M in April 2017, compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast, as the number of New Home Sales for April 2017 were 0.569M. Basically, there was a decline of -11.4%, compared with the previous month. On the other hand, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) posted an increase to 54.0 from 53.1 in May 2017 (Prelim). The report stated “Faster business activity growth was driven by the service sector (‘flash’ index at 54.0 in May), which more than offset the weakest rise in manufacturing production since September 2016 (‘flash’ output index at 53.3)“.

     

    Overall, the US Dollar may gain pace, and gold prices could decline back towards $1240 in the near term.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    During the past few days, gold price gained and moved above the $1240 and $1260 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The upside move was strong, as it moved towards $1265. However, the stated level is a major hurdle, as $1264-65 was a support earlier, and now prevented an upside break.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price started a downside move, and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1214.23 low to $1264.85 high. The most important move was below a major bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at $1258.50.

     

    The highlighted trend line break below $1260 has increased the chances of further declines. The next stop for the price could be near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1214.23 low to $1264.85 high at $1245. However, the most important support is near $12396 since it coincides with the 100 SMA.

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  • Gold Price Forecast – More Gains Likely Towards $1245

    Gold Price Forecast – More Gains Likely Towards $1245

    • – There were sharp gains in Gold price recently, as it traded above $1230 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a solid ascending channel pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with support at $1225.
    • – Recently in the US, the JOLTS Job Openings figure published for Dec 2016 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics posted 5.501M, compared with the 5.568M forecast.

     

    US JOLTS Job Openings

    Recently, the US JOLTS Job Openings number, which represents a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to evaluate job vacancies was released for Dec 2016. The market was aligned for 5.568M in Dec 2016, compared with the last reading of 5.522M.

     

    However, the result on the lower side, as the US JOLTS Job Openings came in at 5.501M in Dec 2016. Moreover, the last reading was revised down to 5.505M. The report added that “Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.0 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent“.

     

    On the other hand, the Economic Optimism Index, released by The Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) posted a rise from 55.6 to 56.4 in Feb 2017. Overall, there was nothing fundamentally to stop gold price from moving higher, which means it might soon test $1245.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    There was a nice uptrend initiated from the $1180 low in gold price against the US Dollar. The price gained pace, and broke many hurdles on the way up like $1200 and $1220. The price traded with a bullish bias, and settled above the 100 simple moving average (H4 chart).

     

    Gold Price US Dollar Forecast

     

    There is currently an ascending channel pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with support at $1225. It may continue to take the price higher. It is already above the last swing high of $1220 and the 1.236 extension of the last decline from the $1220 high to $1180 low.

     

    So, the chances are high of gold price testing the 1.618 extension of the last decline from the $1220 high to $1180 low at $1244. Overall, the price may continue to trade higher as long as the $1220 support is active.

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