EUR/USD Forecast – Euro At Risk of More Declines Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro At Risk of More Declines Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro declined recently and broke the 1.1675 support area against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Goods Trade Balance for June 2018 was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of $-67.00B as there was a trade deficit of $-68.33B.

US Goods Trade Balance

Recently in the US, the Goods Trade Balance for June 2018 was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market was looking for a trade deficit of around $-67.00B compared with the last deficit of $-64.85B.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of $-67.00B as there was a trade deficit of $-68.33B, up $3.6 billion from $64.8 billion in May. The report added:

 

Exports of goods for June were $141.9 billion, $2.2 billion less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $210.3 billion, $1.3 billion more than May imports.

 

The EUR/USD pair found support near the 1.1640 level recently and is currently correcting towards the 1.1675 and 1.1690 resistance levels.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro was in a decent uptrend from the 1.1580 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded above the 1.1700 resistance level, but it faced a strong resistance near the 1.1740-50 resistance zone.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

As a result, the pair declined and broke the 1.1700 and 1.1675 support levels. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. There was also a close below 1.1675 and the 100 hourly SMA. It tested the 1.1640 support area where buyers emerged.

 

At the moment, the pair is correcting higher towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1743 high to 1.1637 low. However, there are many resistances on the upside near the 1.1680 level.

 

Furthermore, there is a bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1690, which coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1743 high to 1.1637 low. Therefore, upsides are likely to be capped by the 1.1680-90 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.1640, the pair could test the 1.1600 level.


Also published on Medium.

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