US NFP, Presidential Elections and the US Dollar

US NFP, Presidential Elections and the US Dollar

  • – The US Dollar was seen under bearish pressure against the Japanese yen, as it fell below the 103.50 support area.
  • – There was a trend line break noted near 103.60 on the daily chart of USDJPY, igniting a downside move.
  • – There are many important events lined up in the US, which may impact the US Dollar.


US NFP and Presidential Elections

If you are looking to trade the US Dollar, then you need to be careful, as there are few crucial releases like the US NFP and the presidential elections are lined up.


Today, the US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and the Average Hourly Earnings figure will be published by the US Department of Labor. The US NFP is slated for a rise to 175K, and the unemployment rate may decline to 4.9%. If the outcome fails to impress, then the dollar may come under further bearish pressure.


The most important event is the US presidential elections, which are slated on 8th Nov 2016. There is a chance of swing moves once the results are out. Recent events in the US were not that good. Like, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted a decline from the last reading of 57.1 to 54.8 in Oct 2016, and ignited a downside move in the US Dollar.


USD/JPY Technical Analysis

As mentioned, the US Dollar was under a bearish pressure against the Japanese yen, and traded below the 103.50 support area. During the downside move, the USDJPY pair broke another important support at 103.60 around a bullish trend line formed on the daily chart.


USDJPY Technical Analysis


The pair is currently finding buyers near the 100-day simple moving average aligned at 102.50-80. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it may find sellers near the broken trend line at 103.60.


On the downside, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 100.07 low to 105.57 high may be tested. Then, it mostly depends on the incoming data in the US, which may impact the US Dollar vs the Japanese yen and other dollar pairs.


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