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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Looking To Outperform Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Looking To Outperform Yen

    • – The US Dollar after a downside wave towards 111.60 against the Japanese yen found support.
    • – The USD/JPY pair started a recovery, and currently looking to break a bearish trend line at 114.00 on the 4-hours chart.
    • – The Japanese Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office posted an increase of 1% in Q4 2016 (annualized and preliminary), less than the forecast of 1.1%.

     

    Japanese Gross Domestic Product

    Today in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product report was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was expecting the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan to increase by 1.1% in Q4 2016 (preliminary), compared with the same quarter a year ago.

     

    However, the result was below the forecast, as the Japanese GDP grew by 1% in Q4 2016. When we look at the quarterly change, the Japanese GDP grew by 0.2% in Q4 2016 (preliminary), compared with the previous quarter. This was again below the forecast of 0.3%.

     

    Overall, the result was not as the market expected, resulting in a minor bearish pressure on the Japanese yen and a push for USD/JPY towards 114.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was seen trading lower this past week against the Japanese yen, as it fell towards 111.60. Later, the USD/JPY pair found support and consolidated above the 111.60 confluence area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    Once the consolidation pattern was complete, there was an upside move in USD/JPY. The pair traded higher, and broke a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 112.60. Moreover, the pair also broke the 100 simple moving average (H4), and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 115.37 high to 111.60 low.

     

    At the moment, the pair is facing sellers near another bearish trend line at 114.00. The same area also coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 115.37 high to 111.60 low. So, it won’t be easy for the US dollar buyers to break 114.00. However, the USD/JPY pair is currently trading with a positive bias, which means there is a chance of a break higher for a move towards 114.50.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains Supported Near 112.40 Vs Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains Supported Near 112.40 Vs Yen

    • – The Euro after moving as high as 123.30 against the Japanese yen started a correction.
    • – The EUR/JPY pair is currently moving down, but may find support near 122.40 and a triangle lower trend line on the 4-hours chart.
    • – Today, the Spanish Gross Domestic Product released by the National Institute of Statistics posted a growth of 3% in Q4 2016, compared with Q4 2015.

     

    Spanish GDP

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Spanish Gross Domestic Product report was released by the National Institute of Statistics. The market was aligned for the total value of all goods and services produced by Spain to increase by 3% in Q4 2016, compared with Q4 2015.

     

    The result was in line with the forecast, as the Spanish GDP grew by 3%. In terms of the quarterly change, the Spanish Gross Domestic Product grew 0.7% in Q4 2016, which was again in line with the forecast. Later, Greece Retail Sales figure was released by the National Statistics Service. It posted an increase of 3.6% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015. It was way better than the last revised increase of 2.6%.

     

    The results were positive, but it looks like the market sentiment is not favoring gains in EUR/JPY at the moment, and it may extend its current decline towards the 122.40 where it is likely to find support.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro moved higher this past week and traded close to the 123.30 resistance area against the Japanese yen. Later, the EUR/JPY pair started a correction, and moved down below 123.00. The pair also settled below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 121.12 low to 123.30 high.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro yen

     

    The pair is moving down, but it is likely to find support near 122.40, as there is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart. Its lower trend line might act as a support at 122.40-122.20.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 121.12 low to 123.30 high might come into play as a support. Lastly, the 100 simple moving average on the same chart is at 122.08. So, if the pair continues to move down, it is likely to find support for a bounce back.

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  • USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

    USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

    • – The US Dollar declined recently against the Japanese yen, and even traded below the 115.00 support area.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line on the upside at 115.40-155.60 on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.
    • – Earlier today, the Japanese New Machinery orders, released by the Cabinet Office posted an increase of 10.4% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

     

    Japanese New Machinery Orders

    There were no major economic releases in the US lately, and none lined up today due to Martin L. King’s Birthday bank holiday. In Japan today, the New Machinery orders figure was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was expecting an increase of 8.1% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

     

    However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was an increase of 10.4% in the total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decrease of 5.1%, which missed the mark when compared with the forecast of -1.7%.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, but there was not major impact on the Japanese yen. It continued to gain traction vs the US Dollar, and was seen trading towards 114.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled a lot lately against the Japanese yen, as it fell below the 116.00 and 115.00 support area. The most important thing was a break below the 115.30 support area, which later acted as a resistance and prevented an upside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

     

    The pair already tested the 1.618 extension of the last wave from the 115.06 low to 117.54 high, but there is no sign of a major recovery. There are many hurdles on the way up like near 115.40-155.60 in the form of a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.

     

    Furthermore, an initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low. However, the most important hurdle is near 115.30, coinciding with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low.

     

    In short, the pair looks like heading lower, and may head towards 113.60 once again.

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  • GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

    GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

    • – The British Pound declined recently towards 140.00 against the Japanese yen.
    • – The GBP/JPY pair after finding support started a recovery, but faced sellers near 141.20.
    • – In the UK, the Industrial Production released by the National Statistics posted a rise of 2% in Nov 2016, more than the forecast of 0.6%.

     

    UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production

    In the UK today, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures were released by the National Statistics. The market was aligned for an increase of 0.6% in the Industrial Production in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was a rise of 2% in the UK Industrial Production. Similarly, the UK Manufacturing Production posted a rise of 1.2% in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago, better than the forecast of 0.4%. The report mentioned that the “increase in production was due to an increase in mining and quarrying output following the end of a maintenance period in the oil and gas industry and an increase in manufacturing”.

     

     

    Overall, the result was positive, but seems like the GBP buyers are not impressed, and as a result, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to decline back towards 140.00.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound was under a lot of bearish pressure against the Japanese yen recently, as it fell close to the 140.00 handle. The GBP/JPY pair somehow managed to find support near the stated level, and started correcting higher.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis Pound Yen

     

    The pair moved higher, and broke the 141.00 resistance area. However, it failed to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 144.04 high to 140.17 low. There was no H4 close above the stated fib level.

     

    It looks like the pair is struggling during the current recovery wave and may decline back towards 140.00. Even if it manages to move further higher, there are a couple of bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart, waiting to act as a resistance near 142.00. Overall, the trend is bearish in GBP/JPY, and any major rallies may be seen as selling opportunities.

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  • USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

    USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

    • – The US Dollar after a decline towards the 116.04 level against the Japanese yen started correcting higher.
    • – The USD/JPY pair is currently moving higher, but facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.
    • – This week in Japan, the National Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Bureau posted an increase of 0.5% in Nov 2016 (YoY).

     

    Japanese National Consumer Price Index

    This week in Japan, there were a few important economic releases. The most important one was the National Consumer Price Index by the Statistics Bureau. The market was not expecting any major increase above 0.2% in the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services in Nov 2016 (YoY).

     

    However, the result was better compared with the forecast, as there was a rise of 0.5%. However, when we have a look at the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, there was no chance in the index. The last reading was +0.5%. So, we can say that the result was mixed, but the Japanese yen gained traction during the past few days.

     

    There can be a correction phase initiated in Japanese yen, but the USD/JPY pair is currently facing sellers near 116.85-90. So, it would be interesting to see how the pair will trade in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US dollar made a downside move recently against the Japanese yen to break the 117.00 support area. The USD/JPY pair during the downside also broke a bullish trend line at 117.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 116.04 where it found buyers and started correcting higher. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. However, the pair is facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.

     

    The stated level was a support earlier, and now acting as a resistance. The same level also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. There are already two rejections near the same area, and the pair may soon attempt a break above it. If the bulls succeed, there can be a move towards 117.20. Else, there can be a downside move back towards 116.45.

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