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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher and is currently placed nicely above 107.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 53.1 to 52.6 in April 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3. All three key areas – Output, new orders and employment increased at a faster rate. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, stated:

     

    Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions.

     

    The USD/JPY pair was not impacted much and it remains in a bullish zone towards the 108.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support above 106.80 against the Japanese Yen, and started an upside move. The USD/JPY pair gained pace, broke many resistances such as 107.00 and 107.50, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. More importantly, it is currently trading a few pips above the last swing high at 107.77.

     

    This means the pair may perhaps continue to move higher and it could test the 1.236 fib extension of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. It could even test the 108.00 resistance level in the near term.

     

    On the downside, there are many supports above 107.50. There is also a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, any dips toward 107.50 remains supported.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is trading below the 107.00 level and it remains at a risk of more losses against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD.

     

    Japan’s Money Supply M2+CD

    Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The result was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD. However, the last reading was revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently struggling to move higher and it seems like it may decline further towards or below 106.60 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled a lot to break the 107.40 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair made many attempts to move past 107.40-50, but buyers failed to gain momentum which resulted in a downside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    On the downside, the 106.65 zone is acting as a strong support. The pair recently traded as low as 106.64 and corrected higher above 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 107.05 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the pair failed to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. The pair is under pressure and it seems like it could retest the 106.65 support.

     

    If sellers remain in control, there is a chance of a downside break in the near term. The next support sits at 106.20. On the upside, there is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart, which is a crucial barrier for buyers.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded towards 107.00 before starting a downside move against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%.

     

    Japan’s Monetary Base

    Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 9.6% in the Monetary Base in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%. This was also below the last increase of 9.4%. The overall result was positive, but it missed the expectation.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently correcting higher, but it will most likely face resistance on the upside near the 106.20-25 area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded higher this past week and moved above the 106.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded towards the 107.00 level where it faced selling interest, and later a downside move was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair declined and traded below the 106.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 105.65 and it is currently correcting higher. At the moment, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    More importantly, there is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart. Below the triangle resistance, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is at 106.14 to act as a hurdle.

     

    If the pair corrects further higher, it is likely to face sellers on the upside near the 106.20-25 levels. On the downside, a break below the 105.80 support may call for a retest of 105.65. Below 106.65, the pair may even test the 105.20 level.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Resistance Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Resistance Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar started a new upside wave from the 104.63 swing low against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 104.85 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.7% as there was a rise in the index by 0.6%.

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% in the CSPI, similar to the last reading.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of +0.7% as there was a rise in the index by 0.6%. Moreover, looking at the Services Producer Price Index (All items <excluding International transportation>), it posted an increase of 0.6% from the previous year.

     

    The USD/JPY pair remains in a decent uptrend, but the pair is now approaching a crucial barrier near the 105.75-85.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support after a major decline towards the 104.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 105.00 resistance level to set the pace for more gains.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently also traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.63 high to 104.63 low. The upside move was positive since the pair broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near 104.85 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair also succeeded in trading above 105.20 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. At the moment, the pair is flirting with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.63 high to 104.63 low.

     

    On the upside, the previous support area at 105.75 is likely to act as a major hurdle along with another bearish trend line with current resistance at 105.85. The overall bias is positive above 105.00, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break the 105.75-85 resistance.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar is in a downtrend below the 106.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of -¥99.6B in Feb 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up to ¥-944.1B from ¥-943.4B. Looking at the Exports of goods and services in Feb 2018, there was a rise of 1.8%, which was less than the forecast of 1.9%. Moreover, the Imports of goods and services in Feb 2018 rose 18.5%, which was less than the forecast of 17.1%.

     

    The USD/JPY remains in a downtrend and it seems like the pair may break the 105.60 support for more losses in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was under a lot of pressure and started a downside move from well above the 106.50 level. The USD/JPY pair declined and moved below the 106.20 and 106.00 support levels to settle well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 105.59 before started an upside correction. It moved higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low. However, the upside move was protected by the 106.20 level.

     

    More importantly, there is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The recent upside move faced sellers near the channel resistance and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low.

     

    It seems like the pair may continue to move down, and below 105.60, it could head towards the 105.00 handle in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Weaken Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Weaken Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar formed a short-term top near 107.10 against the Japanese Yen, and declined.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 106.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q1 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 5.0 as there was a decline in the index from 9.7 to 2.9.

     

    Japan’s Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing

    Recently in Japan, the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q1 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the index to decline from 9.7 to 5.0.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 5.0 as there was a decline in the index from 9.7 to 2.9. Looking at the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Non-Manufacturing index, there was a decline from the last reading of 4.5 to 3.4.

     

    The USD/JPY seems to be trading below a major support at 106.90 and it may decline further in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was in a nice uptrend as it moved above the 106.50 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. However, the USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum above the 107.00 level and it formed a short-term top near 107.05.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair started a downside move and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 105.45 low to 107.05 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 106.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    The pair seems to be moving in a bearish zone and it could decline further towards 106.25. The mentioned level is a decent support since it is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 105.45 low to 107.05 high.

     

    On the upside, the 106.90 level is an initial resistance. However, the next major resistance is around the 107.00 and 107.05 levels. A break and close above the 107.10 level is needed for buyers to gain traction.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar started to decline from the 110.25 high and moved below 109.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for the index to increase from 55.9 to 56.5.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9. The last reading was revised up from 55.9 to 56.0. The report added that:

     

    This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it seems like it could extend declines below 108.50 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded above the 110.00 level this past week against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 110.43 and later it started a downside wave. An intermediate high was formed at 110.26 from where the pair crashed below 109.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart. The pair broke the 109.00 and 108.80 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 108.53 and it currently remains at a risk of more declines.

     

    An initial resistance on the upside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 110.26 high to 108.53 low. It seems like the pair may extend declines and it could even break the 108.50 support.

     

    On the upside, the pair faces important resistances near the 109.00 and 109.20 levels.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is struggling to move above the 111.00-111.20 resistance area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.44, but there was an increase from the last reading of 0.11 (revised) to 0.27.

     

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index

    Recently in in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for the index to increase from 0.15 to 0.44.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.44 as the index posted a reading of 0.27. Moreover, the last reading was revised down from 0.15 to 0.11. However, there was an overall increase of more than 0.10 points.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near a major support area of 110.65, which must hold to avoid further declines in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was mostly seen trading in a range above the 110.50 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded above the 111.00 level, but is struggled to break the 111.20 resistance level and declined.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded lower and broke the 111.80 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 110.53 from where the pair started an upside recovery. The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart. The pair is holding the triangle support at 110.65, but it is struggling to move higher.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near 110.85. It is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly SMA is also at 110.88. Therefore, it won’t be easy for the pair to move above 111.00, and it remains at a risk of a downside break.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure recently and it moved below 111.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by around 0.4% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index. Looking at the yearly change, the index increased by 3.1%, which was less than the forecast of 3.2%. It was also less than the last reading of 3.5%.

     

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the bearish zone, and it will most likely decline further if it fails to move above 111.20.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure from the 113.40 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started a fresh downside wave and moved below the 112.00 and 111.00 support levels. The decline even accelerated below the 111.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.32 and is currently correcting higher. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low.

     

    However, there are many resistances on the upside around 111.00 and 111.20. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low at 111.00 is acting as a hurdle for buyers.

     

    Overall, it seems like USD/JPY may continue to face sellers in the near term around 111.00-111.20. On the downside, the pair could test 110.20.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar has formed a decent support base around 112.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74.

     

    US NAHB Housing Market Index

    Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders. The market was positioned for the index to remain stable at 70 in Dec 2017.

     

    The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down to 69 from 70. Therefore, the overall increase was of 6 points in Dec 2017 to 74.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in the positive zone, but it has to break above 112.70 to gain upside traction.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after trading lower formed a base around the 112.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 112.30 resistance and a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair also succeeded in breaking the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. However, the pair is currently facing a major resistance around 112.70 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 112.70 resistance also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. There is also a bearish trend line at 112.65, acting as a barrier for more gains in the near term.

     

    Once there is a break above the 112.70 resistance and the pair closes above the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more upsides in the near term. On the downside, the 112.30 and the 112.10 levels are decent supports.

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