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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar corrected higher recently, but it faced resistance near 111.20 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 111.08 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q2 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as the GDP increased 0.7% in Q2 2018 (QoQ).

     

    Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

    Recently in the US, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q2 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.7% in the GDP in Q2 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as the GDP increased 0.7% in Q2 2018. This was much better than the last reading of 0.5%. Looking at the annual change, there was a rise of 3% in the GDP, better than the forecast of 2.6% and much more than the last 1.9%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair recently struggled to break the 111.20 resistance area and it seems like it could decline in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a top this past week around the 111.75 level and declined against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair fell, broke a major bullish trend line with support at 111.25 and traded below the 110.50 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.37 and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. Later, the pair started an upside correction and moved above the 111.00 level plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.75 high to 110.37 low.

     

    However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 111.20 level and a key bearish trend line with current resistance at 111.08 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.75 high to 110.37 low acted as a resistance.

     

    The pair failed to gain traction and moved down below 111.05. It seems like buyers are struggling to gain traction, which could result in more losses towards 111.80 or 110.65 in the near term. On the flip side, a break above 111.20 may push the pair towards 111.50.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyes More Gains Above 111.40 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyes More Gains Above 111.40 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar formed a strong support near 110.94 level and climbed higher against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance at 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2018 was released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as the index declined from the last revised reading of 0.48 to 0.13.

     

    US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

    Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2018 was released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The market was positioned for a decline from the last reading of 0.43 to 0.13 in July 2018.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as the index declined from the last revised reading of 0.48 to 0.13. The last reading was revised up from 0.43 to 0.48, which means the net decline was more than the market’s expectation.

     

    The USD/JPY pair remains supported and it seems like the pair is currently positioned for more gains above the 111.30 and 111.40 levels.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar tested a major pivot level near the 110.94 level on a couple of occasions against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair failed to break the 110.94 and 110.90 support levels and later started an upside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair climbed higher and broke the 111.00 resistance and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance at 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    The pair also broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.47 high to 110.93 low. It has opened the doors for more gains and it seems like the pair may well climb towards the 111.40 and 111.50 level.

     

    It could even test the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last decline from the 111.47 high to 110.93 low at 111.60. If there is a downside correction, the broken resistance near 111.15 is likely to act as a support in the short term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Facing Key Resistances Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Facing Key Resistances Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar tested the 111.10-15 support zone and recovered against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.55 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Overall Household Spending for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -1.6% as there was a 1.2% decline (YoY) in the spending.

     

    Japan’s Overall Household Spending

    Recently in Japan, the Overall Household Spending for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The market was positioned for a decline of around 1.6% in the spending compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of -1.6% as there was a 1.2% decline (YoY) in the spending. This was also better than the last decline of 3.9%. Moreover, the labor cash earnings in June 2018 increased 3.6% (YoY), more than the market forecast of 1.7%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently recovering, but it is facing a tough hurdle near the 111.40 and 111.55 levels.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar declined recently and broke the 111.80 support level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 111.50 support and traded as towards the 111.10-15 support zone where buyers appeared.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair started an upside move and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.87 high to 110.11 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 111.50 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the same decline.

     

    It seems like there is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near 111.35 on the hourly chart. Above this, the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned near the 111.55 level. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.55 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    Therefore, if the pair moves further higher, it is likely to face a strong resistance near 111.50-55. Above this, the pair may well rise towards the 112.00 level. On the flip side, if there is a downside move, the pair could revisit the 111.10 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Break Higher Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Break Higher Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is placed nicely in a positive bias above the 110.72 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Retail Trade report for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +0.1% as there was a 1.5% (MoM) rise in the Retail Trade.

     

    Japan’s Retail Trade

    Recently in Japan, the Retail Trade report for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.1% in the Retail Trade compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +0.1% as there was a 1.5% (MoM) rise in the Retail Trade. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.8%, which was more than the forecast of +1.6% and also more than the last +0.6%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently well supported on the downside, and it seems like the pair may perhaps make an attempt to break above 111.15 and 111.30.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar dipped towards the 110.60 level this past week against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair formed a support base and climbed above the 110.72 and 110.90 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    However, the upside move was capped by the 111.15 and 111.20 resistance levels. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The pair recently climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.25 high to 110.79 low.

     

    Therefore, there are high chances of it gaining momentum above the trend line, 111.20, and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Above this, the pair could trade towards 111.35 and the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last decline from the 111.25 high to 110.79 low.

     

    Overall, USD/JPY remains well supported on the downside near the 110.70 level and it could move higher above the 111.15-20 levels in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Testing Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Testing Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in a major uptrend and it recently traded above 113.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a short-term bearish trend line formed with resistance near 112.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of ¥534.2B as there was a trade surplus of ¥721.4B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥534.2B compared with the last reading of ¥578.3B.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of ¥534.2B as there was a trade surplus of ¥721.4B. The last reading was also revised up from ¥578.3B to ¥580.5B. Imports of goods and services in June 2018 increased 2.5% (YoY), less than the forecast of 5.3%. Exports of goods and services in June 2018 increased 6.7% (YoY), less than the forecast of 7.0%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently correcting lower is trading near a major support area at 112.65 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar climbed higher recently and broke the 112.80 and 113.00 resistances against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.13 before sellers appeared. The pair started a downside correction and moved below the 112.80 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the decline, the pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.21 low to 113.13 high. However, the pair reached as crucial support area near 112.65 and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.21 low to 113.13 high is acting as a support near the 112.67 level. Below this, the next key support is near the 112.55 level, which was a resistance earlier.

     

    On the upside, there is a short-term bearish trend line formed with resistance near 112.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. A break above this could open the doors for a fresh upward move towards the 113.00 level in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Gaining Momentum Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Gaining Momentum Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is placed in a bullish trend above the 110.80 support area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 110.85 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Machinery New Orders figure for May 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +8.6% as there was a rise in orders by 16.5% (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Machinery New Orders

    Recently in Japan, the Machinery New Orders figure for May 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of around 8.6% in orders in May 2018 compared with the last same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +8.6% as there was a rise in orders by 16.5%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 3.7% in orders, which was less than the forecast of -5.5%. However, it was well below the last reading of +10.1%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is moving higher and it seems like the pair may perhaps continue to move higher above the 111.20 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a nice upside move from the 110.40 swing low against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair jumped above the 110.80 and 111.00 resistance levels to move into a bullish zone above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 111.35 before starting a downside correction. It declined and tested the 110.80 support area where buyers appeared. It again started moving higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.35 high to 110.76 low.

     

    The pair is placed nicely in a bullish zone and it seems like it could move above the 111.20 level soon to retest the 111.35 high. Above this, the pair will most likely test 111.50. An initial resistance sits around the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.35 high to 110.76 low at 111.21.

     

    On the downside, the pair remains supported near the 111.00 level and a key bullish trend line with support at 110.85 on the hourly chart.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar In Major Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar In Major Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is positioned nicely above the 110.60 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 110.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure for Q2 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +9.3% as there was a rise in the Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure by 13.6%.

     

    Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure

    Recently in Japan, the Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure for Q2 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of around 9.3% in the index in Q2 2018 compared with the last reading of 2.3%.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +9.3% as there was a rise in the Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure by 13.6%. Looking at the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, there was a rise from the last reading of 23 to 24 in Q2 2018.

     

    The USD/JPY pair made a nice upside move above the 110.50 pivot level and is currently placed in an uptrend above the 110.60 level.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support base around the 110.20 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 110.50 and 110.60 resistance levels to move into a bullish zone.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average and formed a high at 111.05. At the moment, the pair is correcting lower and is trading around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.66 low to 111.05 high.

     

    On the downside, there are many supports around the 110.70 level. There is also a major bullish trend line in place with support at 110.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The same trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.66 low to 111.05 high.

     

    Overall, the pair remains well supported above the 110.70 level and it could continue to move higher towards 111.20 level in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar failed to move above the 110.90 level and declined against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a short-term contracting triangle with support at 110.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of ¥-235.0B in May 2018, compared with the last surplus of ¥626.0B.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B. Imports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 14.0% compared with the forecast of +8.2%. Moreover, the Exports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 8.1% compared with the forecast of +7.5%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near the 110.50 level and it seems like there is a risk of a downside move in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded towards the 111.00 level recently against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair almost tested the 110.00 level and formed a high near 110.90. Later, there was a downside reaction and the pair declined below the 110.80 and 110.60 levels.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the decline, there was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high. There was even a break below the 110.50 pivot level. However, the decline was protected by the 110.30 level.

     

    Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high also acted as a support. The pair is currently recovering, but it seems like upsides might be capped by the 110.60 and 110.70 resistance levels.

     

    If there is a failure to move past 110.70, there could be a downside reaction. Supports on the downside are around 110.30 and 110.10, followed by 110.00.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend above the 109.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%.

     

    Japan’s Monetary Base

    Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of around 7.6% in the base compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%, which was also higher compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a positive zone and any dips towards the 109.50 level remains supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major upside move from the 108.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed higher above the 109.00 and 109.20 resistance levels, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded close to the 109.80 level and a high was formed at 109.76. Later, a downside move and the pair corrected lower towards 106.00. There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high is positioned near the 109.51 level. Therefore if the pair breaks the trend line support, it could test 109.51.

     

    The chances of a downside break below 109.50 are very low. Should there be a break below 109.50, the pair could test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high at 109.24.

     

    On the upside, the 109.75 level is a short term resistance. Above this, the USD/JPY pair could break the 110.00 level in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar remained in a downtrend and broke the 109.40 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Jobs/application ratio for April 2018 was released by the Japan Institute of Labor.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 1.60 as the ratio was unchanged from 1.59.

     

    Japan’s Jobs/Application Ratio

    Recently in Japan, the Jobs/application ratio for April 2018 was released by the Japan Institute of Labor. The market was positioned for a rise in the ratio from the last reading of 1.59 to 1.60 in April 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of 1.60 as the ratio was unchanged from 1.59. The unemployment rate also remained at 2.5%, which was in line with the market forecast.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is clearly under pressure and it seems like it could extend the current decline below the 109.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major downside move from the 110.00 handle against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair declined and broke a few key supports such as 109.60 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The pair traded below the 109.00 level and formed a new weekly low at 108.92.

     

    At the moment, the pair is consolidating losses and it recently tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 109.46 high to 108.92 low. It may correct a few more pips, but upsides are likely to be capped by the 109.20 and 109.30 levels.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 109.46 high to 108.92 low is at 109.19 to prevent upsides. Further above, there is a bearish trend line with resistance at 109.35, which may act as a strong hurdle for buyers. On the downside, the next major support sits at 108.50.

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