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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar started to decline from the 110.25 high and moved below 109.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for the index to increase from 55.9 to 56.5.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9. The last reading was revised up from 55.9 to 56.0. The report added that:

     

    This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it seems like it could extend declines below 108.50 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded above the 110.00 level this past week against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 110.43 and later it started a downside wave. An intermediate high was formed at 110.26 from where the pair crashed below 109.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart. The pair broke the 109.00 and 108.80 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 108.53 and it currently remains at a risk of more declines.

     

    An initial resistance on the upside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 110.26 high to 108.53 low. It seems like the pair may extend declines and it could even break the 108.50 support.

     

    On the upside, the pair faces important resistances near the 109.00 and 109.20 levels.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is struggling to move above the 111.00-111.20 resistance area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.44, but there was an increase from the last reading of 0.11 (revised) to 0.27.

     

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index

    Recently in in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for the index to increase from 0.15 to 0.44.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.44 as the index posted a reading of 0.27. Moreover, the last reading was revised down from 0.15 to 0.11. However, there was an overall increase of more than 0.10 points.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near a major support area of 110.65, which must hold to avoid further declines in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was mostly seen trading in a range above the 110.50 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded above the 111.00 level, but is struggled to break the 111.20 resistance level and declined.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded lower and broke the 111.80 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 110.53 from where the pair started an upside recovery. The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart. The pair is holding the triangle support at 110.65, but it is struggling to move higher.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near 110.85. It is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly SMA is also at 110.88. Therefore, it won’t be easy for the pair to move above 111.00, and it remains at a risk of a downside break.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure recently and it moved below 111.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by around 0.4% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index. Looking at the yearly change, the index increased by 3.1%, which was less than the forecast of 3.2%. It was also less than the last reading of 3.5%.

     

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the bearish zone, and it will most likely decline further if it fails to move above 111.20.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure from the 113.40 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started a fresh downside wave and moved below the 112.00 and 111.00 support levels. The decline even accelerated below the 111.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.32 and is currently correcting higher. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low.

     

    However, there are many resistances on the upside around 111.00 and 111.20. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low at 111.00 is acting as a hurdle for buyers.

     

    Overall, it seems like USD/JPY may continue to face sellers in the near term around 111.00-111.20. On the downside, the pair could test 110.20.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar has formed a decent support base around 112.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74.

     

    US NAHB Housing Market Index

    Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders. The market was positioned for the index to remain stable at 70 in Dec 2017.

     

    The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down to 69 from 70. Therefore, the overall increase was of 6 points in Dec 2017 to 74.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in the positive zone, but it has to break above 112.70 to gain upside traction.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after trading lower formed a base around the 112.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 112.30 resistance and a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair also succeeded in breaking the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. However, the pair is currently facing a major resistance around 112.70 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 112.70 resistance also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. There is also a bearish trend line at 112.65, acting as a barrier for more gains in the near term.

     

    Once there is a break above the 112.70 resistance and the pair closes above the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more upsides in the near term. On the downside, the 112.30 and the 112.10 levels are decent supports.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher from 112.00 and is approaching a major break against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B.

     

    Japan’s Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks

    Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the Foreign investment in Japan stocks to be around ¥-160.0B compared with the last ¥-155.2B.

     

    The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B. The last reading was revised from ¥-155.2B to ¥-155.3B. Looking at the Foreign bond investment, it came in at ¥-208.1B, compared with the last revised reading of ¥138.0B.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is preparing for the next move, and it might soon break either 112.50 or move below 112.10.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a nice upside move and traded above the 113.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and later started a downside correction. The stated correction was such that the pair moved a few pips below the 112.00 support.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    A low as formed near 111.98 and the pair started moving higher. It has already traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low. However, the 100 hourly simple moving average is protecting gains near 112.50.

     

    It seems like there is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart. On the downside, the triangle support is at 112.10. Therefore, we might soon witness a break either above 112.50 or below 112.10 in the near term.

     

    The current market sentiment is positive for USD/JPY, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break 112.50, triangle, 100 hourly SMA and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar found support near 113.10 against the Japanese Yen and moved higher.
    • – There was a break above two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by 3.1% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4%, which is also better than the last +3%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.3% in the index, which was better than the forecast of +0.1% and also above the last +0.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the positive zone, and if it moves above 113.75, there can be more gains in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after a slow and steady decline traded below the 114.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded toward the 113.00 handle and formed a low at 113.08 before starting an upside correction

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low and cleared two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart. At present, the pair is trading near the 113.70-75 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low is near 113.71. Therefore, a close above 113.75 is needed for more gains in USD/JPY.

     

    On the upside, the next upside target could be 113.95 and the 114.10 levels. On the downside, the 113.50 level is a decent support followed by the 113.10 swing low.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar remains in an uptrend above 113.50 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Retail Trade

    Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a retail trade to increase by 2.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2%, but this was more than the last revised 1.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.8% in the retail trade in Sep 2017, which was better than the last decline of 1.7%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair declined a few pips, but the pair remains well supported above the 113.50 level in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar is following a decent uptrend above 112.80 and 113.50 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 114.49 before starting a short-term correction towards 113.50.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair broke the 114.40 support and moved towards 113.50. At present, a major ascending channel with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair is acting as a key barrier for sellers and preventing further declines.

     

    The channel support might produce a bounce towards 114.00 in the short term. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.49 high to 113.52 low at 113.74. Above the mentioned 113.74, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 113.80 to act as a resistance.

     

    It seems like there can be a couple of swing moves between 113.50-114.00 before the pair moves higher and challenge the channel resistance once again.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded higher and moved above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B.

     

    Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥559.8B, compared with the last surplus of ¥112.3B.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B. Exports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 14.1%, less than the forecast of 14.9%. Imports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 12%, less than the forecast of 15%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the near term, but remains supported above 112.70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar gained decent upside momentum this week and traded above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and is currently correcting lower towards 112.80-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. Therefore, if the pair continues to moves down, there are chances of it finding bids near the 112.80-70 levels.

     

    On the upside, the 113.00 handle is an initial resistance followed by the last swing high of 113.08. A close above 113.80 could take the pair towards the next resistance at 113.50. Overall, buying dips in the near term towards the 112.80-70 levels can be considered with a stop below the trend line support.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 38% as there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%.

     

    Japanese Machine Tool Orders

    Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association. The market was positioned for a rise of around 38% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of 38% since there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%. It was also above the last +36.3%. Earlier, the Machinery new orders figure for August 2017 posted a rise of 4.4% compared with the same month a year ago. It was above the forecast of 0.8% and a lot better than the last decline of 7.5%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might continue to struggle in the short term and could even retest the 112.00 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar recently attempted a break of the 112.80 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum and started a downside move below the 112.60 level.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair declined and traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart. A low was formed at 111.97 before the pair started a correction. It recovered well and traded above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low.

     

    However, a bearish trend line at 112.60 prevented gains along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 112.62 to act as a major hurdle for buyers.

     

    As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 112.60 and the 100 hourly SMA, there is a chance of USD/JPY retesting the 112.00 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend and recently traded towards 110.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.8% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8%. Looking at the yearly change in the production, there was a rise of 4.7% in July 2017, similar to the last +4.7%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization declined by 1.8% in July 2017, compared with the last increase of 2.1%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips towards 110.00, but downsides remain supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a decent ground this week and moved above the 110.00 resistance level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 110.72 where it faced sellers and currently consolidating gains.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high. Moreover, there is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like sellers might succeed in breaking the channel support at 110.40. In the mentioned scenario, the next immediate support sits at 110.20, which is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high.

     

    However, the most important support is near 110.00, which is just around the 50% Fib level of the same wave. The overall trend is still bullish for USD/JPY, but there can be a few downside corrections in the short term.

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