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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar found support near 113.10 against the Japanese Yen and moved higher.
    • – There was a break above two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by 3.1% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4%, which is also better than the last +3%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.3% in the index, which was better than the forecast of +0.1% and also above the last +0.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the positive zone, and if it moves above 113.75, there can be more gains in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after a slow and steady decline traded below the 114.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded toward the 113.00 handle and formed a low at 113.08 before starting an upside correction

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low and cleared two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart. At present, the pair is trading near the 113.70-75 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low is near 113.71. Therefore, a close above 113.75 is needed for more gains in USD/JPY.

     

    On the upside, the next upside target could be 113.95 and the 114.10 levels. On the downside, the 113.50 level is a decent support followed by the 113.10 swing low.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar remains in an uptrend above 113.50 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Retail Trade

    Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a retail trade to increase by 2.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2%, but this was more than the last revised 1.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.8% in the retail trade in Sep 2017, which was better than the last decline of 1.7%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair declined a few pips, but the pair remains well supported above the 113.50 level in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar is following a decent uptrend above 112.80 and 113.50 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 114.49 before starting a short-term correction towards 113.50.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair broke the 114.40 support and moved towards 113.50. At present, a major ascending channel with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair is acting as a key barrier for sellers and preventing further declines.

     

    The channel support might produce a bounce towards 114.00 in the short term. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.49 high to 113.52 low at 113.74. Above the mentioned 113.74, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 113.80 to act as a resistance.

     

    It seems like there can be a couple of swing moves between 113.50-114.00 before the pair moves higher and challenge the channel resistance once again.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded higher and moved above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B.

     

    Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥559.8B, compared with the last surplus of ¥112.3B.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B. Exports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 14.1%, less than the forecast of 14.9%. Imports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 12%, less than the forecast of 15%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the near term, but remains supported above 112.70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar gained decent upside momentum this week and traded above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and is currently correcting lower towards 112.80-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. Therefore, if the pair continues to moves down, there are chances of it finding bids near the 112.80-70 levels.

     

    On the upside, the 113.00 handle is an initial resistance followed by the last swing high of 113.08. A close above 113.80 could take the pair towards the next resistance at 113.50. Overall, buying dips in the near term towards the 112.80-70 levels can be considered with a stop below the trend line support.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 38% as there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%.

     

    Japanese Machine Tool Orders

    Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association. The market was positioned for a rise of around 38% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of 38% since there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%. It was also above the last +36.3%. Earlier, the Machinery new orders figure for August 2017 posted a rise of 4.4% compared with the same month a year ago. It was above the forecast of 0.8% and a lot better than the last decline of 7.5%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might continue to struggle in the short term and could even retest the 112.00 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar recently attempted a break of the 112.80 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum and started a downside move below the 112.60 level.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair declined and traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart. A low was formed at 111.97 before the pair started a correction. It recovered well and traded above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low.

     

    However, a bearish trend line at 112.60 prevented gains along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 112.62 to act as a major hurdle for buyers.

     

    As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 112.60 and the 100 hourly SMA, there is a chance of USD/JPY retesting the 112.00 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September 2017 (Prelim) reading was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 53.4, but there was a rise in the PMI from 52.2 to 52.6.

     

    Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September 2017 (Prelim) reading was released. The market was positioned for a rise from the last reading of 52.2 to 53.4.

     

    The outcome was below the forecast of 53.4, but there was a rise in the PMI from 52.2 to 52.6. This is a new four-month high, and the Flash Manufacturing Output Index jumped to 53.5, which is a lot more than the last 52.5 and strongest growth for four months. Commenting on the same, the Principal Economist at IHS Markit, Annabel Fiddes, stated:

     

    Latest data signalled a further improvement in growth momentum across Japan’s manufacturing sector with the PMI rising to a four-month high in September.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might attempt further gains in the near term and could even break 112.60-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar remained in a nice uptrend and traded above the 111.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even managed to break the 112.00 handle and traded towards the 112.70 level

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair was seen struggling near the 112.70-60 resistance levels and started a downside move. It corrected below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.10 low to 112.71 high. However, the downside move was protected by the 111.0 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.10 low to 112.71 high also prevented further losses along with a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.10 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently following the trend line support and trading above 112.15. Buyers need to gain momentum and take the pair above 112.50 to challenge 112.70 again. A close above 112.70 is needed for further gains in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend and recently traded towards 110.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.8% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8%. Looking at the yearly change in the production, there was a rise of 4.7% in July 2017, similar to the last +4.7%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization declined by 1.8% in July 2017, compared with the last increase of 2.1%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips towards 110.00, but downsides remain supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a decent ground this week and moved above the 110.00 resistance level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 110.72 where it faced sellers and currently consolidating gains.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high. Moreover, there is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like sellers might succeed in breaking the channel support at 110.40. In the mentioned scenario, the next immediate support sits at 110.20, which is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high.

     

    However, the most important support is near 110.00, which is just around the 50% Fib level of the same wave. The overall trend is still bullish for USD/JPY, but there can be a few downside corrections in the short term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar after trading as high as 110.94 against the Japanese Yen found sellers and moved down.
    • – There was a break below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 110.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥392.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥418.8B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥392.0B, compared with the last surplus of ¥439.9B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of ¥392.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥418.8B. Similarly, the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance posted a better than expected trade surplus of ¥337.4B, more than the forecast of ¥195.3B and the last was ¥81.4B. Imports of goods and services in July 2017 (YoY) increased 16.3%, less than the forecast of 17%.  Exports of goods and services in July 2017 (YoY) increased 13.4%, less than the forecast of 13.6%.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, and may continue to weigh on the USD/JPY pair as long as it is below 110.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded nicely earlier this week and moved above the 110.50 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average against the Japanese yen. Later, the USD/JPY pair after trading as high as 110.94 found sellers and started a downside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 110.94 high. During the downside move, there was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair even traded below the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 110.94 high.

     

    At the moment, buyers are protecting losses below a major support area of 109.65-60. There is a chance of a minor bounce in USD/JPY before the pair dives down one more time. On the upside, the broken support at 110.00 is a crucial resistance going forward.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Broke Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Broke Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar after trading close to the 111.00 handle found sellers and moved down against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Trade Balance figure for June 2017 was released by the Customs Office.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥549.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥518.6B.

     

    Japan’s Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Trade Balance figure for June 2017 was released by the Customs Office. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥549.0B, compared with the last deficit of ¥115.1B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of ¥549.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥518.6B. On the other hand, the Current Account was positive, as there was a trade surplus of ¥934.6B, more than the forecast of ¥814.0B, but less than the last ¥1,653.9B.

     

    Overall, the result was neutral, and there are chances of USD/JPY declining in the near term below the 110.50 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar mostly traded with a positive bias and traded towards the 111.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 111.04 recently from where a correction wave below the 111.00 level was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair moved down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.84 low to 111.04 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.65 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair also moved below a contracting triangle pattern with support at 110.70. The downside move found support near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.84 low to 111.04 high and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There is a chance of a minor upside move towards 110.75, but the pair is likely to face sellers in the near term. Selling rallies towards the 110.75 and 110.90 levels may be considered for a move towards the 110.40 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Poised for More Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Poised for More Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar faced a lot of sellers lately and moved below the 110.90 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 110.70 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for May 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +1.7%, as there was an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous month.

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for May 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was expecting an increase of 1.7% in the production compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast, as there was an increase of 1.6%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 4.9% in May 2017, which was well below the last rise of 6.5%. There was a decline of 2.1% in inventories in May 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair may correct a few pips towards the 110.70-80 levels, but likely to remain in a downtrend in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was under a lot of pressure lately and moved below the 111.25 support area against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 111.00 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards 110.30.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair after trading as low as 111.30 started a correction and currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.28 high to 110.30 low. On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 110.70 forming on the hourly chart.

     

    The same trend line also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.28 high to 110.30 low. So, if the pair corrects towards 110.70 or 110.80, it is most likely to face sellers in the near term.

     

    On the downside, the recent low of 110.30 is a decent support. Below 110.30, the all-important 110.00 handle could be challenged.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar recently traded lower to test the 111.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was expecting a trade surplus of ¥439.8B compared with the last deficit of ¥203.4B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B, and the last reading was revised up from ¥203.4B to ¥204.2B. Imports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 15.5%, more than the forecast of 14.6%. Exports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 9.7%, more than the forecast of 9.5%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair has a chance to recover in the short term, but it faces resistances such as 112.30 and 112.80 on the upside.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar declined during the past few days and traded below the 112.80 and 112.30 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 112.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards 111.50.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair after trading as low as 111.54 started a recovery and broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart. It is currently attempting a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low.

     

    The pair faces a monster hurdle on the upside near 112.30. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned at 112.30.

     

    Above 112.30, the next hurdle is at 112.80, which was a support earlier and now a resistance. So, if the pair has to continue higher, it has to break 112.30 and 112.80 for sustained gains.

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