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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar started a correction after trading close to the 0.9840 level against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart of USD/CHF.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
    • – The outcome was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1% (MoM).

     

    Swiss Unemployment Rate

    Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The market was not looking for any change in the unemployment rate from 3.2% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1%. Looking at the Youth unemployment (15 to 24 year olds), there was a decline of -5.6%, and the number of unemployed 50 fell by around 0.5%. The report added that:

     

    133,169 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAV), 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9’506 persons (-6.7%).

     

    The USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a major support at 0.9770, which holds the key for the next move in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar remains in a nice uptrend above 0.9720 against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair recently traded above the 0.9800 handle and posted a high at 0.9836. Later, a correction was initiated from the mentioned high and the pair moved below the 0.9800 handle.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    There was a break below the 23.36% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. However, pair is now trading near a major support area at 0.9770 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There is also a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart aligned with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. Therefore, the mentioned trend line support at 0.9770 holds a lot of importance for the next move.

     

    If the pair holds above 0.9770 and breaks a connecting bearish trend line at 0.9790, there can be more upsides. Alternatively, a downside break of 0.9770 could push USD/CHF towards 0.9720.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Decline Further Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Decline Further Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar after struggling to clear the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc moved down.
    • – The USD/CHF pair is about to settle below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Industrial Production report for Q2 2017 was released by the Swiss Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was an increase in production by 2.9% (QoQ).

     

    Swiss Industrial Production

    Today in Switzerland, the Industrial Production report for Q2 2017 was released by the Swiss Statistics. The market was expecting the Industrial Production to increase by around 1% compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase in production by 2.9%. The last reading was also revised down from -1.6% to -1%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 2.8%, which was more than the last revised -4.2%. The report added that:

    Construction production increased by 6.1% in 2nd quarter 2017 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Production rose by 3.9% in building, civil engineering also registered an increase (+10.4%). Lastly, specialised construction activities registered an increase of 6.0% in their production.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF pair might continue to move down and could even test the 0.9600 handle in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a couple of attempts to break the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc. However, the USD/CHF pair failed to settle above the 0.9700 and started a downside move below the 0.9680 level.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded below the 23.36% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9600 low to 0.9697 high. However, the most important break was below the 100 hourly simple moving average and a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair has also breached the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9600 low to 0.9697 high, which is a bearish sign. If the recent trend line break is real, the pair might continue to trade lower towards 0.9600.

     

    Selling rallies in the short term towards 0.9660-80 can be considered with a stop above 0.9700.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Buy on Dips Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Buy on Dips Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar spiked higher and moved above the 0.9710 resistance against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9690 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.3% in the CPI compared with the previous month.

     

    Swiss CPI

    Today in Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The market was expecting the CPI to decrease by 0.3% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.3% in the CPI, which was more than the last -0.1%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 0.3%, which was more than the last 0.2%. The report added that:

    The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in July 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.6 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF remains supported on the downside near 0.9700 and 0.9690 for more gains.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar mostly traded in a range below the 0.9700 level against the Swiss Franc. Later, the USD/CHF pair gained bids and was able to break the 0.9700-0.9710 resistance area for an upside move above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded as high as 0.9763 before it faced resistance and started correcting lower. It moved below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9670 low to 0.9763 high, but found support near 0.9710.

     

    The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9670 low to 0.9763 high is acting as a decent support. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9690 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 0.9690 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it remains supported for more gains in the near term.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar stated a downtrend after trading close to 0.9699 against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
    • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was expecting the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $20.3B, compared with the last $1.8B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B. The last reading was also revised up from $1.8B to $9.7B.  On the other hand, the total Net TIC Flows were down from the last revised reading of $74.4B to $57.3B. The report added that:

    The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $57.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private inflows were $87.2 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $29.9 billion.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF may continue to move higher, but it is facing a major resistance zone near 0.9560-70.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled to break above the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc and moved down. During the downside move, the USD/CHF pair broke the 100 hourly simple moving average and a bullish trend line at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.9523 and currently correcting higher. It has managed to move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low.

     

    However, there are many hurdles on the upside such as 0.9565 and 0.9580. There is also a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low is also near the trend line.

     

    So, if the pair continues to move higher, it may face resistance near 0.9565 and 0.9570. Selling rallies can be considered as long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 0.9570.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar made a nice upside move against the Swiss Franc to trade above the 0.9730 resistance.
    • – The USD/CHF pair broke an expanding triangle pattern with resistance at 0.9740 on the hourly chart, which is now acting as a support.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the SECO Economic Forecasts (Bern, 20.06.2017) by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs were mostly positive.

     

    SECO Economic Forecasts

    Today in in Switzerland, the SECO Economic Forecasts (Bern, 20.06.2017) were published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. The market was expecting the agency to project the gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by around 1.3% in 2017, and by 1.9% in 2018.-

     

    The actual result was mostly in line with the forecast, as the GDP is likely to grow by 1.4%, and by 1.9% in 2018. The report mentioned that “Although growth in the Swiss economy has steadily accelerated over the past two quarters, it has nevertheless fallen short of expectations”. The report also projected the unemployment rate of 3.2% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF may remain elevated, and there are high chances of a push above the recent high of 0.9762 in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started an upside move after trading towards the 0.9650-40 support against the Swiss Franc. The upside move was strong, as the USD/CHF pair was able to break a few resistances such as 0.9680, 0.9700 and 0.9730.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair also managed to break an expanding triangle pattern with resistance at 0.9740 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 0.9762 before starting a correction.

     

    The pair is currently testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9695 low to 0.9762 high. There is a chance of an extended correction towards the 0.9730 support or the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The next major support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9695 low to 0.9762 high. Furthermore, there is also a bullish trend line on the same chart with support at 0.9720. Overall, any dips towards 0.9740 or 0.9720 can be considered as buying opportunities in the near term.

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