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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar started to decline from the 110.25 high and moved below 109.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for the index to increase from 55.9 to 56.5.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9. The last reading was revised up from 55.9 to 56.0. The report added that:

     

    This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it seems like it could extend declines below 108.50 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded above the 110.00 level this past week against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 110.43 and later it started a downside wave. An intermediate high was formed at 110.26 from where the pair crashed below 109.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart. The pair broke the 109.00 and 108.80 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 108.53 and it currently remains at a risk of more declines.

     

    An initial resistance on the upside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 110.26 high to 108.53 low. It seems like the pair may extend declines and it could even break the 108.50 support.

     

    On the upside, the pair faces important resistances near the 109.00 and 109.20 levels.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is struggling to move above the 111.00-111.20 resistance area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.44, but there was an increase from the last reading of 0.11 (revised) to 0.27.

     

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index

    Recently in in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for the index to increase from 0.15 to 0.44.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.44 as the index posted a reading of 0.27. Moreover, the last reading was revised down from 0.15 to 0.11. However, there was an overall increase of more than 0.10 points.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near a major support area of 110.65, which must hold to avoid further declines in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was mostly seen trading in a range above the 110.50 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded above the 111.00 level, but is struggled to break the 111.20 resistance level and declined.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded lower and broke the 111.80 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 110.53 from where the pair started an upside recovery. The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart. The pair is holding the triangle support at 110.65, but it is struggling to move higher.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near 110.85. It is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly SMA is also at 110.88. Therefore, it won’t be easy for the pair to move above 111.00, and it remains at a risk of a downside break.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure recently and it moved below 111.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by around 0.4% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index. Looking at the yearly change, the index increased by 3.1%, which was less than the forecast of 3.2%. It was also less than the last reading of 3.5%.

     

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the bearish zone, and it will most likely decline further if it fails to move above 111.20.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure from the 113.40 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started a fresh downside wave and moved below the 112.00 and 111.00 support levels. The decline even accelerated below the 111.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.32 and is currently correcting higher. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low.

     

    However, there are many resistances on the upside around 111.00 and 111.20. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low at 111.00 is acting as a hurdle for buyers.

     

    Overall, it seems like USD/JPY may continue to face sellers in the near term around 111.00-111.20. On the downside, the pair could test 110.20.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar has formed a decent support base around 112.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74.

     

    US NAHB Housing Market Index

    Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders. The market was positioned for the index to remain stable at 70 in Dec 2017.

     

    The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down to 69 from 70. Therefore, the overall increase was of 6 points in Dec 2017 to 74.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in the positive zone, but it has to break above 112.70 to gain upside traction.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after trading lower formed a base around the 112.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 112.30 resistance and a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair also succeeded in breaking the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. However, the pair is currently facing a major resistance around 112.70 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 112.70 resistance also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. There is also a bearish trend line at 112.65, acting as a barrier for more gains in the near term.

     

    Once there is a break above the 112.70 resistance and the pair closes above the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more upsides in the near term. On the downside, the 112.30 and the 112.10 levels are decent supports.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher from 112.00 and is approaching a major break against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B.

     

    Japan’s Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks

    Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the Foreign investment in Japan stocks to be around ¥-160.0B compared with the last ¥-155.2B.

     

    The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B. The last reading was revised from ¥-155.2B to ¥-155.3B. Looking at the Foreign bond investment, it came in at ¥-208.1B, compared with the last revised reading of ¥138.0B.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is preparing for the next move, and it might soon break either 112.50 or move below 112.10.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a nice upside move and traded above the 113.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and later started a downside correction. The stated correction was such that the pair moved a few pips below the 112.00 support.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    A low as formed near 111.98 and the pair started moving higher. It has already traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low. However, the 100 hourly simple moving average is protecting gains near 112.50.

     

    It seems like there is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart. On the downside, the triangle support is at 112.10. Therefore, we might soon witness a break either above 112.50 or below 112.10 in the near term.

     

    The current market sentiment is positive for USD/JPY, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break 112.50, triangle, 100 hourly SMA and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Retest 111.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Retest 111.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar is trading lower and remains well below the 111.80-112.00 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 111.80 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 0.8% in the index in Sep 2017 (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by 0.8% in Sep 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 0.8% in the index in Sep 2017. However, this was a lit lower than the previous increase of 0.9%. Looking at the Services Producer Price Index for all items excluding International transportation, there was a rise of 0.7% in Sep 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under pressure and it is likely to continue moving down towards the last swing low of 111.06.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major downside move from the 112.70 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded below a couple of important support levels such as 112.20 and 111.80. It traded as low as 111.06 from where a recovery was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.71 high to 111.06 low. However, the upside move is facing many resistances on the upside around the 111.60 and 111.80 levels along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.71 high to 111.06 low acted as a hurdle recently. There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 111.80 on the hourly chart.

     

    Therefore, any major upsides might face sellers near the 111.80 and 112.00 levels in the near term. On the downside, the recent low of 111.06 could be tested followed by 111.00.

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