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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar In Trouble Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar In Trouble Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar declined this week vs the Canadian dollar and moved below 1.3100 support.
    • – There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of USD/CAD with support at 1.2960.
    • – Today’s US nonfarm payrolls release by the US Department of Labor might impact the USD/CAD pair since it is approaching a break with resistance at 1.3050.

     

    US Non-farm Productivity and NFP

    Recently, the Non-farm Productivity, which shows the output per Hour of labor worked was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting an increase of 1% (preliminary) in the Non-farm Productivity in Q4 2016, compared with the previous quarter.

     

    However, the result was better, as there was a rise of 1.3% in Q4 2016. The last reading was also revised up from 3.1% to 3.5%. Moreover, the report added that “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.3-percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2016”. So, overall, the result was positive. Today, there is a major release, as the US nonfarm payrolls report will be published by the US Department of Labor.

     

    The market is looking for a stable reading of 175K, up from the last 156K. A positive outcome may help USD/CAD in breaking the 1.3050 resistance, else there can be a downside break as well.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure against the Canadian dollar this week, and traded towards 1.2960. The USD/CAD somehow recovered from 1.2968, but currently finding sellers near 1.3030.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair is facing resistance mainly near a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with hurdle at 1.3030-1.3050. Since the pair broke the last swing low of 1.3018, there are chances of the pair heading towards the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 1.3018 low to 1.3387 high.

     

    So, there is a possibility of the pair finding sellers and moving down towards 1.2950-1.2930. Only a break and close above the 1.3050 resistance may open the doors for more gains. The next resistance in that case would be near 1.3100, coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (H4).

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  • Gold Price – Chances of More Upsides Emerge Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price – Chances of More Upsides Emerge Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price was recently seen trading higher vs the US Dollar for a move past $1165.
    • – There was a break above a bearish trend line on the daily chart of Gold price at $1135.
    • – In the US, the recent nonfarm payrolls release by the US Department of Labor was disappointing, as it came in at 156K vs the 178K forecast.

     

    US Nonfarm Payrolls

    In the US this past Friday, there was a major release, as the nonfarm payrolls report was published by the US Department of Labor. The forecast was 178K in Dec 2016, compared with the last 178K.

     

    However, the result was on the lower side, as the US NFP came in at 156K. It was even counted less, as the last reading was revised up from 178K to 204K. Overall, there was a difference of around 50K in Dec 2016. The report added that the “number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million in December and accounted for 24.2 percent of the unemployed. In 2016, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 263,000“.

     

     

    In short, the result failed to push the price of Gold down, which means there are chances of upsides in the near term towards $1200.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price started a recovery from the $1122 low against the US Dollar, and moved above $1150. The price during the recent upside move broke a bearish trend line on the daily chart at $1135, which opened the doors for more gains.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1352 high to $1122 low where it is facing resistance. However, there is a shift in the technical indicators towards north, suggesting an upside move above $1180.

     

    The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1352 high to $1122 low. A bearish trend line is also positioned near the same fib level at $1237. However, there are many intermediate resistances before that like $1200, and it won’t be easy for Gold buyers to break these levels.

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  • EUR/USD – Euro Turning Bullish Against the US Dollar?

    EUR/USD – Euro Turning Bullish Against the US Dollar?

    • – The Euro traded higher against the US Dollar and moved above the 1.0640 resistance area.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD with support on the downside at 1.0620-00.
    • – Today, the US employment, NFP and unemployment figures will be released by the US Department of Labor, which may impact the EURUSD pair.

     

    US NFP and Spanish Unemployment Change

    Today in the US, the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and unemployment figures will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is aligned for positive numbers in Nov 2016. Let us wait and see how the actual result is, and its impact on the greenback.

     

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Spanish Unemployment Change, which shows the number of unemployed workers added during the previous month was released by the Spanish Government. The market was expecting a chance of -25.8K in Nov 2016, compared with the last change of 44.7K.

     

    However, the result was disappointing, as the Spanish Unemployment Change came in at 24.8K. The report added that the “number of permanent contracts increased by 16.6% year on year, more than double what they grow temporary contracts, 7.9%. The cumulative decrease of unemployment since the beginning of the year is 303,685 unemployed, most of the historical series in November”.

     

    Overall, the outcome was not as the market expected, which may push the EURUSD pair a few pips down in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after struggling a lot around the 1.0640 resistance area against the US Dollar finally broke higher. There was a break above the resistance area and the 100 simple moving average (H4).

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

     

    The EUR/USD pair traded as high as 1.0689, and started correcting lower. The pair is currently finding bids near the 100 simple moving average (H4). Any further declines may take the pair towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0552 low to 1.0689 high.

     

    Moreover, the broken resistance area above 1.0600 may now act as a support if the pair moves down. Overall, it looks like the EUR/USD pair remains supported on the downside and could face bids around 1.0620-40.

     

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  • US NFP, Presidential Elections and the US Dollar

    US NFP, Presidential Elections and the US Dollar

    • – The US Dollar was seen under bearish pressure against the Japanese yen, as it fell below the 103.50 support area.
    • – There was a trend line break noted near 103.60 on the daily chart of USDJPY, igniting a downside move.
    • – There are many important events lined up in the US, which may impact the US Dollar.

     

    US NFP and Presidential Elections

    If you are looking to trade the US Dollar, then you need to be careful, as there are few crucial releases like the US NFP and the presidential elections are lined up.

     

    Today, the US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and the Average Hourly Earnings figure will be published by the US Department of Labor. The US NFP is slated for a rise to 175K, and the unemployment rate may decline to 4.9%. If the outcome fails to impress, then the dollar may come under further bearish pressure.

     

    The most important event is the US presidential elections, which are slated on 8th Nov 2016. There is a chance of swing moves once the results are out. Recent events in the US were not that good. Like, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted a decline from the last reading of 57.1 to 54.8 in Oct 2016, and ignited a downside move in the US Dollar.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    As mentioned, the US Dollar was under a bearish pressure against the Japanese yen, and traded below the 103.50 support area. During the downside move, the USDJPY pair broke another important support at 103.60 around a bullish trend line formed on the daily chart.

     

    USDJPY Technical Analysis

     

    The pair is currently finding buyers near the 100-day simple moving average aligned at 102.50-80. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it may find sellers near the broken trend line at 103.60.

     

    On the downside, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 100.07 low to 105.57 high may be tested. Then, it mostly depends on the incoming data in the US, which may impact the US Dollar vs the Japanese yen and other dollar pairs.

     

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  • USDJPY – How Dollar Gained Ground Versus Japanese Yen?

    USDJPY – How Dollar Gained Ground Versus Japanese Yen?

    • The US Dollar gained a lot of traction against the Japanese yen recently and moved above the 103.00 resistance.
    • Currently, the USDJPY pair is trading near a major resistance trend line, acting as a hurdle for more gains.
    • Today, the US Nonfarm payrolls report will be released, which could impact the pair to a great extent.

     

    Japanese Consumer Confidence Index and US NFP

    This week was good so far for the US Dollar versus the Japanese yen. The fed’s Janet Yellen comments sparked a rally in the US Dollar, which result in a break of the 102.00-103.00 resistance in the USDJPY pair.

     

    Today in Japan, the Consumer Confidence index was released by the Cabinet Office. It captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity and was expected to increase from 41.3 to 41.6 in August 2016.

     

    However, the result exceeded the forecast with an increase in the Consumer Confidence index from 41.3 to 42.0. However, there was no help for the Japanese yen buyers as it continued to decline.

     

    Today in the US, there is a major economic release. The US Nonfarm payrolls figure along with the unemployment rate will be published by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting an increase of around 180K in August 2016. The result may impact the US Dollar and might create volatility.

     

    USDJPY Pair Analysis

    The US Dollar after moving towards 100.00 in August 2016 found support against the Japanese yen and started to move higher. The USDJPY pair gained traction recently, as the greenback was bid across the board and enjoyed decent upsides.

     

    USDJPY Pair Technical Analysis

     

    The pair recently traded near a major resistance area near a crucial bearish trend line on the daily chart of the USDJPY pair. The highlighted trend line is acting as a major hurdle and preventing an upside move in the near term.

     

    Today’s NFP results hold the key. If they exceed the forecast, then there is a chance of a break of the trend line in USDJPY. On the other hand, any disappointing reading might push the pair back lower.

     

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