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  • Gold Price Forecast – Here Is Why $1240-43 Is Crucial Resistance

    Gold Price Forecast – Here Is Why $1240-43 Is Crucial Resistance

    • – Gold price after trading close to the $1225 support vs the US Dollar found bids.
    • – The price is once again moving higher, but likely to face resistance near a monster resistance near $1240-43.
    • – The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics for Feb 2017 (Preliminary) registered a decline from 55.00 to 54.3.

     

    US Manufacturing PMI

    Recently, the US saw the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by the Markit Economics for Feb 2017 (Preliminary). The forecast was aligned for a minor rise from the last reading of 55 to 55.3.

     

    The result was a few points on the lower side, as the US Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3 in Feb 2017 (Preliminary), but still registered an expansion, which was a positive sign. Commenting on the outcome, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated “The drop in the flash PMI numbers for February suggest that the post-election upturn has lost some momentum. Growth of business output, new orders and hiring all waned, as did inflationary pressures”.

     

    Overall, the result was lower than the forecast, but was not bearish for the US Dollar.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price struggled many times near the $1240-43 resistance area against the US Dollar. The recent downside towards $1225 was also a result of the same resistance. The price thankfully found support near a bullish trend line at $1226 and started moving higher.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    It has moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1243 high to $1226 low. However, it was seen struggling to stay above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1243 high to $1226 low. So, there is a chance of a minor dip in Gold price before it makes a recovery.

     

    On the upside, the highlighted resistance area $1240-43 remains the key. A break above it is needed for further gains. As long as the price is below it, buyers might struggle. On the downside, the trend line support at $1230 is important since the 100 simple moving average is also positioned near it. Overall, it looks like the price has a major support at $1230 and resistance at $1240-43, and we may soon witness a break.

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  • NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Following An Uptrend

    NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Following An Uptrend

    • – The New Zealand is enjoying a decent upside move from the 0.6900 low against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel pattern with support at 0.7200 formed on the 4-hours chart of NZD/USD.
    • – The New Zealand Consumer Price Index will soon be released by the Statistics New Zealand, which may impact the NZD/USD going forward.

     

    US Manufacturing PMI and NZ CPI

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by the Markit Economics for Jan 2017 (preliminary). The forecast was of an increase to 54.5 from 54.3.

     

    However, the result was better, as the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 from 54.3 in Jan 2017 (preliminary). Commenting on the positive result, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated “US manufacturers are seeing a bumper start to 2017, with production surging higher in January on the back of rising inflows of new orders”.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which is why the recent upside move struggled in NZD/USD near 0.7270-0.7280. However, there is a major release in New Zealand lined up tomorrow, as the CPI figure will be published by the Statistics New Zealand. The forecast is +1.2% in Q4 2016 (YoY). The actual NZ CPI result may impact the NZD/USD pair a lot, and could ignite the highlighted channel beak as well.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand dollar was seen in an uptrend as it formed a base near 0.6900 against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair traded higher during the past few weeks, and managed to break the 0.7200 resistance, and the 100 simple moving average.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US

     

    It looks like the pair is following a crucial ascending channel pattern with support at 0.7200 on the 4-hours chart. The pair recently found sellers near 0.7275 and moved lower. It may soon test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7128 low to 0.7276 high where it can find support.

     

    In short, the pair may move down a few pips, but as long as the channel support at 0.7200 is intact, it remains in an uptrend. On the upside, the next major resistance is near 0.7300.

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