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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro started an upside correction after trading as low as 1.1507 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1550 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise of 0.1% in the HPI (MoM).

    US Housing Price Index

    Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.3% in the Housing Price Index in April 2018, compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise of 0.1% in the HPI. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June 2018 was also released. It posted a decline from the last reading of 34.4 to 19.9.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher and it seems like it may perhaps move above the 1.1640 resistance zone in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined heavily from well above the 1.1850 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many supports on the way down such as 1.1640 and 1.1550 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded close to the 1.1500 level and formed a low at 1.1507. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1851 high to 1.1507 low.

     

    More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1550 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently trading above the 100 hourly SMA, but it is facing a major barrier near the 1.1640 level.

     

    The 1.1640 level was a support earlier and now it coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1851 high to 1.1507 low. Therefore, a break above the 1.1640 resistance may perhaps open the doors for more gains in the near term.

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  • NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Extending Losses Vs US Dollar

    NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Extending Losses Vs US Dollar

    • – The New Zealand Dollar declined sharply and broke the 0.6900 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a crucial declining channel support at 0.6850 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
    • – Today in New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q1 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as the GDP grew by 0.5% in Q1 2018.

     

    New Zealand Gross Domestic Product

    Today in New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q1 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.5% in the GDP in Q1 2018, compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as the GDP grew by 0.5% in Q1 2018. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 2.7% in the GDP in Q1 2018, less than the last reading of 2.9%. The report added that:

     

    The service industries were up 0.6 percent in the March 2018 quarter, down from a 1.1 percent increase in the December 2017 quarter. An increase in manufacturing was offset by a fall in construction activity, resulting in a flat quarter for the goods-producing industries. The primary industries were up 0.6 percent, rebounding slightly from a 2.6 percent fall in the previous quarter.

     

    The NZD/USD pair remained in a downtrend and it seems like the pair could extend losses below the 0.6830 in the near term.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand Dollar started a major downside move from well above the 0.7020 level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD declined, broke a few important supports such as 0.6980 and 0.6900, and also settled below 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair even traded below the 0.6850 support and recently formed a low at 0.6831. Moreover, there was a break below a crucial declining channel support at 0.6850 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.

     

    At the moment, the pair is consolidating losses with an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6916 high to 0.6831 low. Above the 0.6850 level, the pair is likely to face a strong sell zone near 0.6875.

     

    Moreover, the channel upper trend line is at 0.6880 to prevent upsides. On the downside, the pair could break the 0.6830 level to move towards the 0.6800 level.

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  • Crude Oil Price Recovery Could Be Capped Vs US Dollar

    Crude Oil Price Recovery Could Be Capped Vs US Dollar

    • – Crude oil price recovered after trading below the $63.50 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines formed with resistance at $65.10 and $65.65 on the hourly chart.
    • – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending June 15, 2018 was released.
    • – As per the report, there was a decline in the crude oil inventories by 3.016 million barrels.

     

    API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

    Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending June 15, 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a drop in the crude oil inventories by roughly 1.20 million barrels.

     

    However, the actual result was better as there was a decline in the crude oil inventories by 3.016 million barrels. It was a positive outcome and had an upside impact on oil prices.

     

    The price moved above the $64.50 level, but it seems like it is approaching a couple of important hurdles below the $65.60 level.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

    There was a sharp drop in crude oil price from well above $66.00 against the US Dollar. The price declined heavily and broke the $65.00 and $64.00 support levels. There was also a close below the $65.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price traded as low as $63.35 before a fresh recovery was initiated. The price jumped above the $64.50 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $67.00 high to $63.35 low.

     

    However, there are many barriers above the $65.00 level. There are two bearish trend lines formed with resistance at $65.10 and $65.65 on the hourly chart. Oil price was already rejected once from $65.60 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $67.00 high to $63.35 low.

     

    Therefore, if the price continues to move higher, it could face a strong barrier near the $65.50-60 zone. As long as it the price is below this, it could move down once again below the $64.50 level. On the flip side, above $65.60, the price may move towards the $66.00 level in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar declined heavily and broke the 0.7480 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance near 0.7430 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
    • – Recently in Australia, the House Price Index for Q1 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of -1.0% as there was a decline of 0.7% in the index (QoQ).

    Australia’s House Price Index

    Recently in Australia, the House Price Index for Q1 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of around 1.0% in the HPI in Q1 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of -1.0% as there was a decline of 0.7% in the index. The yearly change in the GDP was also above the forecast of +1.7%, as there was a rise of 2.0% in the HPI. However, the current reading was well below the last reading of +5.0%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently in a bearish zone and it seems like the pair may accelerate declines below 0.7400 in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar faced a solid selling interest above the 0.7520 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a major downside move and traded below the 0.7500 and 0.7480 resistance levels to move into a bearish zone below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The decline was such that the pair even broke the 0.7440 and 0.7400 support levels. A low was formed near 0.7392 before the pair started upside correction. It traded higher above the 0.7400 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7453 high to 0.7392 low.

     

    However, the upside move was capped by the 0.7425 resistance. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7453 high to 0.7392 low acted as a barrier.

     

    The pair is again trading lower and it may perhaps break the recent low near 0.7392 for more losses in the near term. On the upside, there is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance near 0.7430 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar failed to move above the 110.90 level and declined against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a short-term contracting triangle with support at 110.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of ¥-235.0B in May 2018, compared with the last surplus of ¥626.0B.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B. Imports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 14.0% compared with the forecast of +8.2%. Moreover, the Exports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 8.1% compared with the forecast of +7.5%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near the 110.50 level and it seems like there is a risk of a downside move in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded towards the 111.00 level recently against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair almost tested the 110.00 level and formed a high near 110.90. Later, there was a downside reaction and the pair declined below the 110.80 and 110.60 levels.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the decline, there was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high. There was even a break below the 110.50 pivot level. However, the decline was protected by the 110.30 level.

     

    Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high also acted as a support. The pair is currently recovering, but it seems like upsides might be capped by the 110.60 and 110.70 resistance levels.

     

    If there is a failure to move past 110.70, there could be a downside reaction. Supports on the downside are around 110.30 and 110.10, followed by 110.00.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Might Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Might Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro traded towards the 1.1840 level recently before correcting lower against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a major ascending channel with support at 1.1810 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit report for April 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of $13.75B as the Consumer Credit change came in at $9.26B.

    US Consumer Credit Change

    Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit report for April 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was looking for a change in the credit by $13.75B, more than the last change of $11.62B.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of $13.75B as the Consumer Credit change came in at $9.26B. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims also posted a decline from the last revised reading of 223K to 222K for the week ending June 2.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently correcting lower and it may decline further towards the 1.1760 and 1.1750 levels in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro gained traction this week from the 1.1650 low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved higher and traded above a couple of important resistance levels such as 1.1700 and 1.1750 to place itself well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.1800 level and traded as high as 1.1838. Later, a downside correction was initiated and the pair declined below the 1.1820 and 1.1800 levels. There was also a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1714 low to 1.1838 high.

     

    More importantly, there was a break below a major ascending channel with support at 1.1810 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. At the moment, it seems like the price may continue to decline towards the 1.1770-60 support zone in the near term.

     

    On the downside, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1714 low to 1.1838 high could act as a support around 1.1770. Below this, the next support sits around the 1.1740 and 1.1730 levels.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bullish above 1.3400 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bullish above 1.3400 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is gaining pace and is currently trading nicely above 1.3400 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bullish trend line formed with support at 1.3375 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for April 2018 was by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $-49.0B, as there was a trade deficit of $-46.2B.

     

    US Trade Balance

    Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for April 2018 was by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of $-49.0B in April, similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast o of $-49.0B, as there was a trade deficit of $-46.2B. Moreover, the last reading was revised down to $-47.2B.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating gains with a minor corrective formation, but it remains in an uptrend above the 1.3400 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    After a major decline, the British Pound found support around the 1.3250 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 1.3300 and 1.3350 resistance levels to settle nicely above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.3400 resistance and settled above the same. It traded as high as 1.3449 and is currently consolidating gains. On the downside, an initial support is around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3332 low to 1.3442 high.

     

    More importantly, the previous resistance near the 1.3400 level is likely to act as a strong support in the near term. There is also a crucial bullish trend line formed with support at 1.3375 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

     

    Overall, the pair remains well supported near 1.3400, the trend line, and the 50% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3332 low to 1.3442 high. On the upside, a break above the 1.3450 level may open the doors for more gains towards 1.3500 in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar traded higher recently and settled above 0.7640 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7630 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.9% as the GDP grew by 1% in Q1 2018 (QoQ).

    Australia’s Employment Change

    Recently in Australia, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.9% in the GDP in Q1 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 0.9% as the GDP grew by 1% in Q1 2018. The yearly change in the GDP was also above the forecast of 2.8%, as there was a rise of 3.1% in the GDP, which was also a lot higher than the last 2.5%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair moved higher and it is currently placed nicely in a bullish zone above the 0.7600 and 0.7640 support levels.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar started a solid upside move from the 0.7550 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair jumped above a few resistance levels and settled above 0.7600 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    During the upside, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7630 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair. The pair also succeeded in breaking the 0.7640 resistance, opening the doors for more gains.

     

    The recent high was at 0.7664 before the pair started consolidating gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7594 low to 0.7664 high at 0.7647.

     

    However, there are many supports on the downside near 0.7620 and a bullish trend line on the same chart. On the upside, a break above the 0.7660 level may open the doors for more gains, possibly towards the 0.7700 handle in the near term.

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  • Crude Oil Price is Back in Downtrend Vs US Dollar?

    Crude Oil Price is Back in Downtrend Vs US Dollar?

    • – Crude oil price started a downside move from well above $68.00 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial declining channel in place with resistance near $65.25 on the hourly chart.
    • – Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for May 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was no change from the last reading of 52.9.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for May 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a no change from the last reading of 52.9 in May 2018.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as there was no change from the last reading of 52.9. Moreover, China’s Composite Output Index also was unchanged from April’s reading of 52.3.

     

    Overall, the outcome was neutral and it seems like crude oil price current recovery may be capped near $65.25 and $65.50.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

    After a decent upside move, crude oil price formed a short-term top near the $68.40 level against the US Dollar. The price started a downside move and broke a few important supports such as $68.00, $67.40 and $66.00.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price settled below the $66.00 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is also following a crucial declining channel with resistance near $65.25 on the hourly chart. The recent low was $64.52 from where the price started an upside correction.

     

    The price has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $65.97 high to $64.52 low. However, there is a major hurdle on the upside near $65.25, channel, and the $65.50 barrier.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $65.97 high to $64.52 low is also near $65.25 to act as a key resistance. If there is an upside break above the $65.25 level and $65.50, there is a chance of a recovery towards $66.00. On the other hand, if the price fails to move higher, it could resume its downtrend and it may perhaps break the last low of $64.52 to extend its decline.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend above the 109.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%.

     

    Japan’s Monetary Base

    Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of around 7.6% in the base compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%, which was also higher compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a positive zone and any dips towards the 109.50 level remains supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major upside move from the 108.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed higher above the 109.00 and 109.20 resistance levels, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded close to the 109.80 level and a high was formed at 109.76. Later, a downside move and the pair corrected lower towards 106.00. There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high is positioned near the 109.51 level. Therefore if the pair breaks the trend line support, it could test 109.51.

     

    The chances of a downside break below 109.50 are very low. Should there be a break below 109.50, the pair could test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high at 109.24.

     

    On the upside, the 109.75 level is a short term resistance. Above this, the USD/JPY pair could break the 110.00 level in the near term.

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