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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Turned Bearish Below 1.1725 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Turned Bearish Below 1.1725 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move and broke a major support at 1.1725 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1710 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Durable Goods Orders report for August 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 2.0% as there was a rise in orders by 4.5%.

    US Durable Goods Orders

    Recently in the US, the Durable Goods Orders report for August 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for an increase of 2.0% in orders in August 2018.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of 2.0% as there was a rise in orders by 4.5%. Looking at the Durable Goods Orders ex transportation, there was a rise of 0.1% in orders, less than the forecast of +0.5%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair traded towards the 1.1640 support area and it is currently correcting higher towards the 1.1660 resistance area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro failed to move above the 1.1800 resistance area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.1780 and 1.1750 support levels, and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar Chart

     

    The pair even broke the 1.1725 and 1.1700 support levels and traded towards 1.1640. A low was formed at 1.1632 and the pair is currently correcting higher. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1756 high to 1.1632 low.

     

    Above 1.1660, there are many hurdles near the 1.1700 level. There is also a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1710 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. An intermediate resistance is 1.1694 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1756 high to 1.1632 low.

     

    Therefore, if the pair corrects higher from the current levels, it is likely to face a strong selling interest near the 1.1700 handle. On the downside, a break below the recent low could push EUR/USD towards the 1.1600 level in the near term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Gains Above 1.2950 Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Gains Above 1.2950 Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar formed a decent support at 1.2880 and moved higher against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2928 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2018 was released by the Statistics Canada.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a rise in the CPI by 2.8% (YoY).

     

    Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2018 released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for an increase of around 2.8% in the CPI in June 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was around the forecast as there was a rise in the CPI by 2.8% (YoY). Looking at the Core CPI, there was a rise of 1.7% (YoY), compared with the last reading of 1.6% and more than the forecast of 1.4%.

     

    The USD/CAD pair is currently trading with a positive angle and it seems like it could rise towards the 1.2950 and 1.2975 levels in the near term.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar found bids near the 1.2880 level after a strong decline against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair traded as low as 1.2885, started an upward move, broke the 1.2900 resistance, and moved into a positive zone.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    During the rise, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2928 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD. At the moment, the pair is testing the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3064 high to 1.2885 low.

     

    If there is a break above the 1.2935 level, the pair could rise towards the 1.2950 level. Above this, buyers may push the pair towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3064 high to 1.2885 low at 1.2975.

     

    On the flip side, if the pair dips from the current levels, the 1.2900 and 1.2885 levels may act as supports. Below 1.2885, the pair will most likely drop towards the 1.2850 level in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Eyeing More Gains Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Eyeing More Gains Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move and traded above 0.7280 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 0.7285 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Sep 15, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was better than the forecast of 210K as there was a decline in claims to 201K.

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Sep 15, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a rise from the last reading of 204K to 210K.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast of 210K as there was a decline in the Initial Jobless Claims to 201K. The report added that:

     

    The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 208,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

     

    The AUD/USD pair was not impacted much and the pair seems to be placed nicely in a positive zone above the 0.7280 support.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support near the 0.7150 level and started an upside move against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained traction, broke the 0.7200 and 0.7250 resistances, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair cleared the 0.7280 resistance and it recently traded as high as 0.7297. At the moment, the pair is correcting lower and it already broke the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7254 low to 0.7297 high.

     

    Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 0.7285 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair. The trend line support is well above the 50% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7254 low to 0.7297 high.

     

    Therefore, if the pair corrects lower from the current levels, it is likely to find support above 0.7280. Below this, AUD/USD could retest the 0.7250 support. On the upside, a break above 0.7300 could push the pair towards 0.7340.

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  • NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Surging Higher Vs US Dollar

    NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Surging Higher Vs US Dollar

    • – The New Zealand Dollar is placed nicely above the 0.6600 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bullish trend line in place with support at 0.6605 on the hourly chart of the NZD/USD pair.
    • – Recently in New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.8% as there was a rise in the GDP by 1% (QoQ).

    New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product

    Recently in New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.8% in the GDP compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 0.8% as there was a rise in the GDP by 1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of around 2.8% in Q2 2018, more than the forecast of 2.5% and better than the last revised reading of 2.6%.

     

    The NZD/USD pair made a nice upside move and it is currently placed nicely above the 0.6600 and 0.6610 support levels.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand Dollar started a decent upside move from the $0.6530 swing low against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair gained traction, traded above the 0.6600 resistance, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 0.6625 and 0.6630 resistance levels. The recent high was 0.6651 before the pair started trading in a range. An initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6600 low to 0.6651 high.

     

    During the rise, the pair broke a connecting bearish trend line at 0.6620, which could now act as a support. Moreover, there is a crucial bullish trend line in place with support at 0.6605 on the hourly chart of the NZD/USD pair.

     

    An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6600 low to 0.6651 high at 0.6626. Therefore, dips remains supported above the 0.6600 level in the near term. On the upside, a break above 0.6650 could push the pair towards 0.6675.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Supported On Dips Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Supported On Dips Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro jumped higher recently and broke the 1.1640 and 1.1650 resistances against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Sep 8, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 210K as there was a decline in claims to 204K.

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Sep 8, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a minor rise from the last reading of 203K to 210K.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of 210K as there was a decline in claims to 204K. However, the last reading was revised up from 203K to 205K. The report added that:

     

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 1 was 1,696,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remained in a nice uptrend and it recently cleared a couple of hurdles near 1.1650 to move into a bullish zone.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro formed a solid support near the 1.1560 level and started a nice upward move against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair climbed higher, broke the 1.1620 and 1.1650 resistances, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The upside move was strong as the pair even broke the 1.1680 resistance and traded as high as 1.1700. At the moment, the pair is consolidating gains above the 1.1680 level. An initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1606 low to 1.1700 high.

     

    Below the 1.1675-80 support area, the next major support is near the 1.1650 zone, which was a resistance earlier. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1606 low to 1.1700 high is also around 1.1654.

     

    Therefore, any dips from the current levels towards the 1.1650 level are likely to find a strong buying interest. On the upside, a break above 1.1700 could push EUR/USD towards 1.1740.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast –British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Above 1.3080 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast –British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Above 1.3080 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is trading nicely above the 1.3000 support area against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 1.3020 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in China, the new loans figure for August 2018 was released by People’s Bank of China.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 1,300B as the new loans came in at 1,280B.

     

    China’s New Loans Report

    Recently in China, the new loans figure for August 2018 was released by People’s Bank of China. The market was positioned for the new loans figure to be around 1,300B in August 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of 1,300B as the new loans came in at 1,280B. This was also below the last reading of 1,450B. Looking at the M2 Money Supply, there was a rise of 8.2% in August 2018 (YoY), less than the forecast of 8.5%.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently placed nicely in an uptrend above the 1.3000 handle and it seems like the pair could make an attempt to climb above 1.3100.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound recently found support near the 1.2910 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started an upside move, broke the 1.2950 and 1.3000 resistance levels, and finally settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.3050 resistance and traded as high as 1.3082. Later, there was a downside correction and the pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2979 low to 1.3082 high.

     

    However, there are many supports on the downside near the 1.3030 and 1.3020 levels. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2979 low to 1.3082 high is an initial support near the 1.3030 level.

     

    Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 1.3020 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. The trend line support is also above the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.3000 handle. Therefore, if the pair corrects lower, it could find support near 1.3020. On the upside, it may soon make an attempt to break the 1.3080 and 1.3100 resistance levels.

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  • Crude Oil Price Could Gain Above $70 Vs US Dollar

    Crude Oil Price Could Gain Above $70 Vs US Dollar

    • – Crude oil price is gaining momentum above the $68.00 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above two bearish trend lines with resistance at $67.50 and $67.75 on the hourly chart.
    • – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending September 7, 2018 was released.
    • – As per the report, the US crude oil inventories declined by around 8.636 million barrels.

     

    API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

    Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending September 7, 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the US crude oil inventories by around 5 million barrels.

     

    However, the actual result was above the market forecast as the US crude oil inventories declined by around 8.636 million barrels to 395.9 million barrels.

     

    The price gained upside momentum after the release and it moved above the $68.00 and $69.00 resistance levels.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

    There was a decent support base formed near the $66.70 level by crude oil price against the US Dollar. The price partially formed a double bottom pattern near $66.70 and started an upside move above the $67.00 resistance.

     

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price climbed above the $68.00 resistance and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above two bearish trend lines with resistance at $67.50 and $67.75 on the hourly chart.

     

    Furthermore, there was a break above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $71.13 high to $66.70 low. It opened the doors for more gains and the price moved above the $69.20, $69.40 and $69.50 resistance levels.

     

    The next resistance for buyers is near the $70.00 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $71.13 high to $66.70 low. Once there is a break above the $70.00, $70.08 and $70.20 levels, the price is likely to surge towards the $71.00 level. If buyers remain in control, the price may even test the $71.13 high in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Is At Risk of More Losses Below $1,190 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Is At Risk of More Losses Below $1,190 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price started a downside move from well above the $1,200 pivot level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a short-term breakout pattern in place with resistance at $1,195 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit Change figure for July 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $13.00B as the Consumer Credit Change came in at $16.64B.

    US Consumer Credit Change

    Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit Change figure for July 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was looking for a change of around $13.00B compared with the last reading of $10.21B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $13.00B as the Consumer Credit Change came in at $16.64B. However, the last reading was revised down from $10.21B to $8.46B.

     

    Gold price recently moved below the $1,200 support level and it seems like it remains at a risk of more declines below the $1,190 level.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price recently faced a strong selling interest near the $1,205-1,206 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a downside move, broke the $1,200 pivot level, and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price traded as low as $1,191 and later started an upward correction. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $1,206 high to $1,191 low. However, the upside move was capped by the $1,198 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $1,206 high to $1,191 low also acted as a resistance. At the outset, there is a short-term breakout pattern in place with resistance at $1,195 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    Therefore, the price is likely to make the next move either above $1,195 or below $1,191. On the upside, above $1,195, the price could move back above $1,200. On the other hand, a break below $1,191 may push the price towards the $1,180 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar corrected higher recently, but it faced resistance near 111.20 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 111.08 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q2 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as the GDP increased 0.7% in Q2 2018 (QoQ).

     

    Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

    Recently in the US, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q2 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.7% in the GDP in Q2 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as the GDP increased 0.7% in Q2 2018. This was much better than the last reading of 0.5%. Looking at the annual change, there was a rise of 3% in the GDP, better than the forecast of 2.6% and much more than the last 1.9%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair recently struggled to break the 111.20 resistance area and it seems like it could decline in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a top this past week around the 111.75 level and declined against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair fell, broke a major bullish trend line with support at 111.25 and traded below the 110.50 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.37 and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. Later, the pair started an upside correction and moved above the 111.00 level plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.75 high to 110.37 low.

     

    However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 111.20 level and a key bearish trend line with current resistance at 111.08 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.75 high to 110.37 low acted as a resistance.

     

    The pair failed to gain traction and moved down below 111.05. It seems like buyers are struggling to gain traction, which could result in more losses towards 111.80 or 110.65 in the near term. On the flip side, a break above 111.20 may push the pair towards 111.50.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Is Near Make or Break Levels Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Is Near Make or Break Levels Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro recovered recently and moved above the 1.1600 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two major bearish trend lines formed with resistance at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2018 was released by Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 55.2 as there was a decline in the PMI from 55.2 to 54.8.

    US Services PMI

    Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2018 was released by Markit Economics. The market was looking for no change in the PMI from 55.2 in August 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of 55.2 as there was a decline in the PMI from 55.2 to 54.8. Moreover, both output and new business expand at softer rates in August 2018. The report added that:

     

    The latest survey data signalled a weaker rise in business activity across the U.S. service sector. Output growth softened to a four-month low and dipped below the long-run series trend. The rate of new business growth softened to an eight-month low, despite remaining strong overall.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely above the 1.1600 support, but it is facing a tough resistance near the 1.1650 zone.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro found a decent support near the 1.1540 level and recovered against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded above the 1.1580 and 1.1600 resistance levels plus settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    However, the upside move was capped by the 1.1650-60 resistance area. Moreover, there are two major bearish trend lines formed with resistance at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair corrected lower and traded below the 1.1630 level.

     

    There was also a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1542 low to 1.1658 high. However, the pair is finding bids near the 1.1600 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    Additionally, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1542 low to 1.1658 high is also at 1.1600. Therefore, the 1.1600 support could play a major role in the near term. Overall, it seems like the pair is preparing for the next move either above 1.1650 or below 1.1600. Above 1.1650, it could test 1.1700 or below 1.1600, it may test 1.1550.

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