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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher and is currently placed nicely above 107.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 53.1 to 52.6 in April 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3. All three key areas – Output, new orders and employment increased at a faster rate. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, stated:

     

    Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions.

     

    The USD/JPY pair was not impacted much and it remains in a bullish zone towards the 108.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support above 106.80 against the Japanese Yen, and started an upside move. The USD/JPY pair gained pace, broke many resistances such as 107.00 and 107.50, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. More importantly, it is currently trading a few pips above the last swing high at 107.77.

     

    This means the pair may perhaps continue to move higher and it could test the 1.236 fib extension of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. It could even test the 108.00 resistance level in the near term.

     

    On the downside, there are many supports above 107.50. There is also a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, any dips toward 107.50 remains supported.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move and traded below 1.2360 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line at 1.2355 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for April 2018 was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 20.1 as there was a rise in the index from 22.3 to 23.2.

    Philadelphia Fed Survey

    Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for April 2018 was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The market was looking for a decline in the index from the last reading of 22.3 to 20.1 in April 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 20.1 as there was a rise in the index from 22.3 to 23.2. This means that there could be continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The report added that:

     

    Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases. The indexes for current new orders and shipments remained positive but fell 17 points and 9 points, respectively.

     

    The EUR/USD moved down and broke a major support area near 1.2360 to move into a bearish zone in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded nicely above the 1.2350 level this week against the US Dollar until it found sellers around the 1.2400 level. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.2360 support level, and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the downside move, there was a break below a key bullish trend line at 1.2355 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even traded below the 1.2340 level and moved to a new intraday low at 1.2329.

     

    It is currently consolidating losses above the 1.2330 level and is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2399 high to 1.2329 low. To the topside, the broken support at 1.2360 and the 100 hourly SMA are likely to act as major hurdles for buyers.

     

    On the downside, a break below the 1.2330 level could open the doors for further losses toward the 1.2300 level in the near term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar bounced back from the 1.2530 support level against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2590 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (March 2018) was announced by the Bank of Canada.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was no change in the interest rates from 1.25%.

     

    BoC Interest Rate Decision

    Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (March 2018) was announced by the Bank of Canada. The market was positioned for no change in the interest rates from 1.25% in March 2018.

     

    However, the actual result was around the forecast as there was no change in the interest rates from 1.25%. The Bank Rate was kept at 1.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 1 per cent. The report added that:

     

    Inflation in Canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected. In Canada, GDP growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 per cent average growth in the first half of 2018.

     

    The USD/CAD pair moved higher after the report, but the upside was capped by the 1.2660 level.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar formed a decent support near the 1.2520-30 area against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair bounced sharply and traded above the 1.2550 and 1.2580 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2590 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD. The pair traded close to the 1.2660 level where it faced a strong selling interest.

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and testing the 1.2620 support along with the 38% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2548 low to 1.2659 high. However, there is a strong support at 1.2600 and the 50% Fib level of the stated wave.

     

    Therefore, if the pair corrects lower further, it is likely to find buyers near the 1.2600 level in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains at Risk Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains at Risk Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar made a short-term top near the 0.7810 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +6.7% as there was a rise in the GDP by 6.8% (YoY).

    China’s GDP

    Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a rise of 6.7% in GDP in Q1 2018 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +6.7% as there was a rise in the GDP by 6.8%. Looking at the quarterly change, there was a rise of 1.4% in the GDP, which was less than the forecast of 1.5%. Moreover, the Chinese Industrial output posted a rise of 6% in Feb 2018 (YoY), less than the forecast of 6.2%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently moving lower and it seems like it remains at a risk of a downside break below the 0.7750 support.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar traded nicely higher this past week and moved above 0.7750 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even traded above the 0.7800 handle, but it failed to hold gains above the stated level. A short-term top was formed at 0.7809 and the pair started a downside correction.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    It declined and traded towards the 0.7750 support, which prevented declines. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    The pair is currently holding the 0.7750-60 support, but there are a few bearish signs. To initiate an upside move, the pair has to move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7809 high to 0.7751 low.

     

    On the flip side, a break and close below the 0.7750 support may perhaps open the doors for a downside push in the near term.

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  • Gold Price Remains Supported above $1,338 Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Remains Supported above $1,338 Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price corrected lower recently after trading as high as $1,365 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,338 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in China, the new loans report for March 2018 was released by People’s Bank of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 1,200.0B as the new loans figure came in at 1,120.0B.

    China’s New Loans

    Recently in China, the new loans report for March 2018 was released by People’s Bank of China. The market was slated for a reading of 1,120.0B compared with the last reading of 839.3B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 1,200.0B as the new loans figure came in at 1,120.0B. However, the result was positive when compared with the last reading of 839.3B. The M2 Money Supply in March 2018 rose 8.2% (YoY), which was less than the forecast of +8.9% and also less than the last +8.8%.

     

    Gold price may consolidate in the short term before it makes the next move above the $1,350 level in the near term.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    There was a decent upside move in gold price this past week as it moved above the $1,360 level against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $1,365 before a downside correction was initiated. It declined and traded below the $1,350 level.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    There was even a spike down below the 100 hourly simple moving average, but the downside move was contained by the $1,332 support. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with current support at $1,338 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

     

    The price is now back above the 100 hourly SMA and broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,365 high to $1,333 low. Buyers need to gather pace above $1,350 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,365 high to $1,333 low for further gains.

     

    On the downside, the price remains supported above the $1,338 level. A close below $1,338 and $1,335 may open the doors for more losses.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2340 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2340 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro declined after trading as high as 1.2395 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – China’s Trade Balance report for March 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $27.21B as there was a trade deficit of $-4.98B.

    China’s Trade Balance

    Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for March 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of $27.21B compared with the last surplus of $33.74B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $27.21B as there was a trade deficit of $-4.98B. Moreover, the last reading was revised from $33.74B to $33.75B. Imports of goods and services in March 2018 increased 14.4%, more than the forecast of 10%. Exports of goods and services in March 2018 decreased 2.7% compared with the forecast of +10%

     

    The EUR/USD is currently under pressure, but it may hold the 1.2320 support and it could trade higher in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro found a strong selling interest below the 1.2400 level against the US Dollar and started a downside move. The EUR/USD pair formed a top at 1.2395 and declined below 1.2360 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The downside move was sharp and the pair traded as low as 1.2299. Later, it found support and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2395 high to 1.2299 low.

     

    Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently moving higher, but it is struggling to break the 100 hourly SMA and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2395 high to 1.2299 low.

     

    The pair has to break the 1.2335 resistance and a bearish trend line at 1.2340 on the same chart to start an upside move. On the other hand, a break below the 1.2320 support could push EUR/USD below 1.2300.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is trading below the 107.00 level and it remains at a risk of more losses against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD.

     

    Japan’s Money Supply M2+CD

    Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The result was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD. However, the last reading was revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently struggling to move higher and it seems like it may decline further towards or below 106.60 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled a lot to break the 107.40 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair made many attempts to move past 107.40-50, but buyers failed to gain momentum which resulted in a downside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    On the downside, the 106.65 zone is acting as a strong support. The pair recently traded as low as 106.64 and corrected higher above 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 107.05 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the pair failed to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. The pair is under pressure and it seems like it could retest the 106.65 support.

     

    If sellers remain in control, there is a chance of a downside break in the near term. The next support sits at 106.20. On the upside, there is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart, which is a crucial barrier for buyers.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound To Surge above 1.4200 Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound To Surge above 1.4200 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is trading in a bullish zone and is currently well above 1.4150 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.4170 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for March 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.5% as there was a decline in the CPI by 1.1% (MoM).

     

    China’s CPI

    Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for March 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.5% in the CPI in March 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual was below the forecast of -0.5% as there was a decline in the CPI by 1.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 3.1% in the CPI in March 2018, which was also below the forecast of +3.2%, and also below the last increase of 3.7%.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently placed nicely in a bullish trend and it may continue to rise towards 1.4200 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a nice upside move from well below the 1.4100 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained upside momentum, traded above the 1.4150 resistance, and it also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded close to the 1.4190 level where it found resistance. It corrected lower and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.4077 low to 1.4188 high. However, the downside move was protected by the 1.4130-40 zone.

     

    The pair is now back in a bullish zone above 1.4150 and it looks set for more gains above 1.4180. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.4170 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

     

    Therefore, the pair remains well supported above the 1.4150-60 levels. On the upside, a break above the 1.4188 high could open the doors for a push above the 1.4200 level in the near term.

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  • NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Eyes Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Eyes Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    • – The New Zealand Dollar is trading nicely and is currently above the 0.7300 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7320 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
    • – Today in New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence for Q1 2018 was released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -12% as the NZIER Business Confidence declined 11%.

     

    New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence

    Today in New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence for Q1 2018 was released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The market was looking for a decline of around 12% in the index in Q1 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of -12% as the NZIER Business Confidence declined 11%. This was also better than the last -12%, but we cannot discard the fact that there was a decline of 11%. The report stated:

     

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows businesses continue to expect a deterioration in economic conditions over the coming months. Business confidence had fallen sharply in the December 2017 quarter in the wake of the new Labour-led Government taking office, and this pessimism has carried over into the first quarter of 2018.

     

    The NZD/USD pair was not affected much and it seems like the pair may continue to rise above 0.7320 in the near term.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand Dollar started a nice bullish wave from the 0.7250 swing low against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair moved higher and it was successful in moving past a major hurdle near 0.7300 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair even succeeded in breaking the last swing high of 0.7321, which is a positive signs. It means there is a chance of it trading towards the 1.236 Fib extension of the last drop from the 0.7321 high to 0.7242 low.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is correcting lower with an initial support near the 0.7321 level. Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7320 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair. As long as the pair is above the 0.7300 level, it remains supported for more gains.

     

    On the upside, the next hurdles could be 0.7340 and 0.7350. Above 0.7350, the pair may even trade towards the 0.7400 level in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Downtrend Below 1.2280 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Downtrend Below 1.2280 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2345 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2275 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $-56.8B as there was a trade deficit of $-57.6B.

    US Personal Income

    Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The market was looking for a trade deficit of $-56.8B similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $-56.8B as there was a trade deficit of $-57.6B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up from $-56.6B to $-56.7B. Overall, the result was neutral and did not impact the USD.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in a downtrend and it seems like the pair may continue to decline as long as it is below 1.2275.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro found sellers above the 1.2350 level against the US Dollar and started a downside move. The EUR/USD traded lower and declined below a few important support levels such as 1.2300 and 1.2280 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded close to the 1.2200 level and formed a low near 1.2217. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last downside move from the 1.2314 high to 1.2217 low.

     

    However, there are many barriers on the upside around 1.2300. There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2275 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last downside move from the 1.2314 high to 1.2217 low is at 1.2266.

     

    Therefore, if the pair moves higher, it is likely to face hurdles near the 1.2280 and 1.2300 levels. On the downside, the 1.2220 level is a decent support followed by the 1.2200 handle.

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