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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    • – The Euro started a downside move and traded below the 1.2360 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4.

    German IFO Business Climate Index

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group. The market was looking for the index to decline from the last reading of 117.6 to 117.0 in Feb 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4. The German IFO Current Assessment index also posted a decline from the last revised reading of 127.8 to 126.3. Moreover, the IFO Expectations index fell from the last revised reading of 108.3 to 105.4.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is facing sellers after it broke the 1.2400 and 1.2360 support levels, which could increase pressure in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a fresh downside wave from well above the 1.2450 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below a couple of support levels such as 1.2400 and 1.2360 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2259. It started an upside correction and moved above the 1.2300 level. However, the pair is struggling to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2551 high to 1.2259 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line resistance near 1.2330 is also around the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, a break above the 1.2330 level won’t be easy for buyers.

     

    On the downside, the 1.2280 level is a decent support followed by 1.2250. Below 1.2250, the pair may retest the 1.2200 level.

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  • Gold Price Poised to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    Gold Price Poised to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    • – Gold price declined recently and broke the $1,340 support level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1,328 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2018 (Prelim) was released by Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the index from 53.3 to 55.9.

     

    US Services PMI

    Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2018 (Prelim) was released by Markit Economics. The market was slated for a rise in the PMI from the last reading of 53.3 to 54.0 in Feb 2018 (Prelim).

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the index from 53.3 to 55.9. Moreover, the US Composite PMI index rose from the last reading of 53.8 to 55.9, which was better than the forecast of 54.4.

     

    There was an increase in bearish pressure on gold, which resulted in a downside push in the price below $1,330.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    After trading above the $1,355 level, gold price faced sellers against the US Dollar. A major top was formed around the $1,360 level and the price declined. It moved down and broke a couple of important support levels such as $1,350 and $1,340 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

     

    The price even moved below the $1,330 level and traded as low as $1,322. At the moment, the price is consolidating losses with an initial resistance on the upside near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,343 high to $1,322 low.

     

    On the upside, there is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1,328 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. However, the most important resistance is near the $1,340 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    Overall, it seems like the price continue to move down and it may perhaps break the $1,320 support level. On the upside, recoveries could be capped by the $1,330 and $1,340 resistance levels.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar is currently under pressure and it recently declined below 0.7900 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7880 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -10.0% as there was a decline of 19.4% in the work done.

    Australia’s Construction Work Done

    Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of around 10% in the work done in Q4 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -10.0% as there was a decline of 19.4% in the work done. Moreover, the Wage Price Index for Q4 2017 was also released today. It posted an increase of 0.6% (QoQ), more than the forecast of 0.5%. The report added that:

     

    The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.6% in the December quarter 2017. This continued the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years.

     

    The AUD/USD pair failed to move higher and it seems like there is a lot of pressure on the pair since it is below the 0.7900 level.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar after trading above the 0.7950 level found sellers against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair formed a top near the 0.7988 level and started a downside move. It declined and traded below the 0.7920 and 0.7900 support levels.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7772 low to 0.7988 high. It is now trading well below the 0.7880 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7880 on the hourly chart. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, it is likely to face sellers near 0.7880 and 0.7900.

     

    On the downside, the next major support is near the 0.7820 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7772 low to 0.7988 high.

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  • NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar to Retest 0.7300 Vs US Dollar

    NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar to Retest 0.7300 Vs US Dollar

    • – The New Zealand Dollar traded as high as 0.7436 before starting a downside correction against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.7365 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
    • – Today in New Zealand, the Producer Price Index Input figure for Q4 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 0.3% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the input PPI (QoQ).

     

    New Zealand Producer Price Index

    Today in New Zealand, the Producer Price Index Input figure for Q4 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a rise of 0.3% in the PPI Input in Q4 217 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of 0.3% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the input PPI. Moreover, the output index rose 1% in Q4 2017, which was more than the forecast of 0.4%. The report added that:

     

    Output prices for the mining industry increased 9.3 percent, influenced by higher crude oil prices received by gas and oil extraction producers. Input prices paid by petroleum and coal product manufacturers rose 12 percent in the December 2017 quarter, influenced by higher imported crude oil prices.

     

    The NZD/USD pair struggled to move higher and is currently trading below the 0.7370 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand Dollar made a nice upside move this past week and traded above the 0.7400 level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7436 where it faced a strong selling interest and started a downside move.

     

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair declined and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7239 low to 0.7436 high. More importantly, there was a break below the 0.7370 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    At the moment, there is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.7365 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair. The pair may decline a few more pips in the short term towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7239 low to 0.7436 high.

     

    On the downside, the 0.7300 level is a strong support and a buy zone. On the upside, a break above 0.7370 and the 100 hourly SMA could ignite an upward move.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound started a downside correction after trading as high as 1.4146 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018.

     

    UK Rightmove House Price

    Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% in the index in Feb 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018, which was similar to the last reading. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.5% in the index in Feb 2018, more than the last 1.1%. The report added:

     

    Average price of property coming to market is up 0.7% (+£2,067) this month on Rightmove, tracking over 90% of the UK property market, similar to the 0.6% rise at this time a year ago with virtually identical number of properties coming to market.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently holding the 1.4000 support, but it remains at a risk of a downside push in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made a nice upside move this past week and traded above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.4146 before it started a downside correction and traded below 1.4100.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair declined and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high. Moreover, there was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart.

     

    However, the downside move was protected by the 1.4000 support. The pair is currently trading above the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Below 1.4000, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high at 1.3973 is a nice support.

     

    Overall, the price action is positive as long as the pair is above 1.3970-1.4000. A break below 1.3970 could ignite more losses in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro made a nice upside move this week and traded above 1.2500 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B.

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was looking for the flows to be around $50.3B, down from the last $57.5B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B. Looking at the total Net TIC Flows, the market was looking for $-37.0B, but it came in at $-119.3B. This was also well below the last revised reading of $33.5B.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely above the 1.2500 support and it may continue to rise in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decline towards the 1.2260 level found support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move, traded above the 1.2350 and 1.2480 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.2500 level and traded as high as 1.2546 recently. It may correct a few pips in the near term, which an initial support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    However, the pair remains supported on the downside above 1.2500. There is also an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart. Below the channel support, the next major support is at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    On the upside, the pair may soon break the 1.2540-50 resistance area and trade towards 1.2600 in the near term, which is the next major resistance.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support base at 0.7760 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018.

    Australia’s National Australia Bank Business Confidence

    Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the index from 11 to 10 in Jan 2018.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018. However, the last reading was revised down from 11 to 10. Moreover, the National Australia Bank Business Conditions index rose from the last reading of 13 to 19. Commenting on the report, the NAB Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, stated:

     

    The large rise in the NAB Monthly Business Survey business conditions index provides further confirmation of robust business activity in Australia. While the index can bounce around from month-to-month due to changes in seasonal patterns, conditions remain elevated on a trend basis.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently gaining upside momentum and it seems like the pair could trade above the 0.7880 level in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7760 level after a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 0.7800 resistance to gain upside momentum in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair also moved above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    The pair is now placed nicely above the 0.7840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Once there is a break above 0.7880 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low, there could be more gains.

     

    On the downside, the 0.7840 and 0.7830 levels are decent support levels.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar is likely forming a short-term top near the 1.2685 level against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K.

     

    Canadian Net Employment Change

    Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for a change of 10K in Dec 2017 compared with the last change of 78.6K.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K. Moreover, the last reading was also revised down from 78.6K to -2.4K. More importantly, there was a rise in the employment rate from 5.7% to 5.9%. The report added that:

     

    Following two months of increases, employment fell by 88,000 in January. Part-time employment declined (-137,000), while full-time employment was up (+49,000). At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%.

     

    The USD/CAD pair spiked above the 1.2650 level, but it faced sellers near 1.2685 level and declined later.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar was in a major uptrend this past week as it moved above the 1.2600 level against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair gained traction and traded as high as 1.2685 where it faced a strong selling interest.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair started a downside move and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair traded below the 1.2560 support and is currently testing the 100 hourly simple moving average. It may soon test or even break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high at 1.2540.

     

    Below 1.2540, the pair may decline further and it could retest the 1.2500 support area. On the upside, the 1.2580 and 1.2600 levels are important resistances for an upward move.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside wave and moved below the 1.2280 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018 (MoM).

    Chinese Consumer Price Index

    Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking for a rise of 0.6% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018. In terms of the yearly change, the Chinese CPI rose 1.5%, which was in line with the forecast, but it was below the last 1.8%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, and it seems like the pair could even break the 1.2200 support for more declines.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading above the 1.2500 level found sellers against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.2400 and 1.2320 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2211 low recently and is currently correcting higher. It already tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low. However, there was no follow through and the pair is now back below the 1.2270 support.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low is near the trend line resistance.

     

    Therefore, a break above the 1.2290 and 1.2300 levels won’t be easy. If EUR/USD fails to move higher, it could soon break the 1.2200 support area and decline further may be towards the 1.2150 level.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is under pressure and it recently broke the 1.4000 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018.

     

    UK RICS Housing Price Balance

    Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for a rise of 5% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the last reading of 8%.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018. This was similar to the last reading of 8%. The report added:

     

    In January, new buyer enquiries, instructions and sales all continued to drift lower, while the three month expectations for agreed sales points to a flat picture in the coming months.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure and it must stay above the 1.3850 support to avoid further declines.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a downside move from the 1.4280 swing high against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and steadily to move below the 1.4200 and 1.4100 support levels. More importantly, it traded below the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.3850 and is currently consolidating losses. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

     

    However, on the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. The pair struggle to break the 1.3900 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

     

    On the downside, the 1.3850 support holds a lot of importance, and the pair must stay above 1.3850 to avoid further declines. On the upside, a break and close above 1.3900 could decrease the bearish pressure.

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