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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar started a correction after trading close to the 0.9840 level against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart of USD/CHF.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
    • – The outcome was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1% (MoM).

     

    Swiss Unemployment Rate

    Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The market was not looking for any change in the unemployment rate from 3.2% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1%. Looking at the Youth unemployment (15 to 24 year olds), there was a decline of -5.6%, and the number of unemployed 50 fell by around 0.5%. The report added that:

     

    133,169 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAV), 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9’506 persons (-6.7%).

     

    The USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a major support at 0.9770, which holds the key for the next move in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar remains in a nice uptrend above 0.9720 against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair recently traded above the 0.9800 handle and posted a high at 0.9836. Later, a correction was initiated from the mentioned high and the pair moved below the 0.9800 handle.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    There was a break below the 23.36% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. However, pair is now trading near a major support area at 0.9770 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There is also a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart aligned with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. Therefore, the mentioned trend line support at 0.9770 holds a lot of importance for the next move.

     

    If the pair holds above 0.9770 and breaks a connecting bearish trend line at 0.9790, there can be more upsides. Alternatively, a downside break of 0.9770 could push USD/CHF towards 0.9720.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Decline Further Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Decline Further Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar after struggling to clear the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc moved down.
    • – The USD/CHF pair is about to settle below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Industrial Production report for Q2 2017 was released by the Swiss Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was an increase in production by 2.9% (QoQ).

     

    Swiss Industrial Production

    Today in Switzerland, the Industrial Production report for Q2 2017 was released by the Swiss Statistics. The market was expecting the Industrial Production to increase by around 1% compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase in production by 2.9%. The last reading was also revised down from -1.6% to -1%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 2.8%, which was more than the last revised -4.2%. The report added that:

    Construction production increased by 6.1% in 2nd quarter 2017 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Production rose by 3.9% in building, civil engineering also registered an increase (+10.4%). Lastly, specialised construction activities registered an increase of 6.0% in their production.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF pair might continue to move down and could even test the 0.9600 handle in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a couple of attempts to break the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc. However, the USD/CHF pair failed to settle above the 0.9700 and started a downside move below the 0.9680 level.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded below the 23.36% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9600 low to 0.9697 high. However, the most important break was below the 100 hourly simple moving average and a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair has also breached the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9600 low to 0.9697 high, which is a bearish sign. If the recent trend line break is real, the pair might continue to trade lower towards 0.9600.

     

    Selling rallies in the short term towards 0.9660-80 can be considered with a stop above 0.9700.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Buy on Dips Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Buy on Dips Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar spiked higher and moved above the 0.9710 resistance against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9690 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.3% in the CPI compared with the previous month.

     

    Swiss CPI

    Today in Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The market was expecting the CPI to decrease by 0.3% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.3% in the CPI, which was more than the last -0.1%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 0.3%, which was more than the last 0.2%. The report added that:

    The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in July 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.6 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF remains supported on the downside near 0.9700 and 0.9690 for more gains.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar mostly traded in a range below the 0.9700 level against the Swiss Franc. Later, the USD/CHF pair gained bids and was able to break the 0.9700-0.9710 resistance area for an upside move above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded as high as 0.9763 before it faced resistance and started correcting lower. It moved below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9670 low to 0.9763 high, but found support near 0.9710.

     

    The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9670 low to 0.9763 high is acting as a decent support. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9690 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 0.9690 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it remains supported for more gains in the near term.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar stated a downtrend after trading close to 0.9699 against the Swiss Franc.
    • – There is a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
    • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was expecting the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $20.3B, compared with the last $1.8B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B. The last reading was also revised up from $1.8B to $9.7B.  On the other hand, the total Net TIC Flows were down from the last revised reading of $74.4B to $57.3B. The report added that:

    The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $57.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private inflows were $87.2 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $29.9 billion.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF may continue to move higher, but it is facing a major resistance zone near 0.9560-70.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled to break above the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc and moved down. During the downside move, the USD/CHF pair broke the 100 hourly simple moving average and a bullish trend line at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.9523 and currently correcting higher. It has managed to move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low.

     

    However, there are many hurdles on the upside such as 0.9565 and 0.9580. There is also a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low is also near the trend line.

     

    So, if the pair continues to move higher, it may face resistance near 0.9565 and 0.9570. Selling rallies can be considered as long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 0.9570.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar made a nice upside move against the Swiss Franc to trade above the 0.9730 resistance.
    • – The USD/CHF pair broke an expanding triangle pattern with resistance at 0.9740 on the hourly chart, which is now acting as a support.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the SECO Economic Forecasts (Bern, 20.06.2017) by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs were mostly positive.

     

    SECO Economic Forecasts

    Today in in Switzerland, the SECO Economic Forecasts (Bern, 20.06.2017) were published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. The market was expecting the agency to project the gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by around 1.3% in 2017, and by 1.9% in 2018.-

     

    The actual result was mostly in line with the forecast, as the GDP is likely to grow by 1.4%, and by 1.9% in 2018. The report mentioned that “Although growth in the Swiss economy has steadily accelerated over the past two quarters, it has nevertheless fallen short of expectations”. The report also projected the unemployment rate of 3.2% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

     

    Overall, the USD/CHF may remain elevated, and there are high chances of a push above the recent high of 0.9762 in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started an upside move after trading towards the 0.9650-40 support against the Swiss Franc. The upside move was strong, as the USD/CHF pair was able to break a few resistances such as 0.9680, 0.9700 and 0.9730.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair also managed to break an expanding triangle pattern with resistance at 0.9740 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 0.9762 before starting a correction.

     

    The pair is currently testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9695 low to 0.9762 high. There is a chance of an extended correction towards the 0.9730 support or the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The next major support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9695 low to 0.9762 high. Furthermore, there is also a bullish trend line on the same chart with support at 0.9720. Overall, any dips towards 0.9740 or 0.9720 can be considered as buying opportunities in the near term.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar to Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar to Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar struggled a lot near 1.0099 against the Swiss Franc, and started a downside move.
    • – The USD/CHF pair broke two important bullish trend lines at 1.0070 on the hourly chart to initiate a downside move.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the Producer and Import Prices for April 2017 provided by the Federal Statistical Office posted a decline of 0.2%.

     

    Swiss Producer and Import Prices

    In Switzerland today, the Producer and Import Prices for April 2017 was provided by the Federal Statistical Office. The market was positioned for the Index to post no major change from the last increase of 0.1%.

     

    However, the result was on the lower side, as the Producer and Import Prices declined by 0.2% in April 2017, compared with the previous month. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 0.8%, which was lower than the last 1.3%. The report added that the “Producer and Import Price Index fell in April 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.1 points (base December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and machinery”.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is bearish for USD/CHF and may ignite more declines towards 0.9950-40 in the near term.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was in nasty uptrend, as it moved above 1.0050 against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair traded close to the 1.0100 level at 1.0099, and started a downside move with a break below the 21 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    The pair declined and broke two important bullish trend lines at 1.0070 on the hourly chart. Later, the pair cleared the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9858 low to 1.0099 high.

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near a major support at 0.9980-70. The stated level was a resistance earlier, and now acting as a support along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9858 low to 1.0099 high. However, it is very likely that the pair will break 0.9970 soon for further declines towards 0.9950, which is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9858 low to 1.0099 high. Overall, more losses are likely once there is a break below 0.9970.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Struggle To Recover Vs Swiss Franc Continues

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Struggle To Recover Vs Swiss Franc Continues

    • – The US Dollar after declining as low as 1.0007 against the Swiss Franc started a recovery, but struggled near 1.0040 and 1.0060.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines with resistance at 1.0040 on the hourly chart of USD/CHF, acting as a hurdle for an upside move.
    • – Earlier today, the US total Net TIC Flows for Feb 2017 released by the US Department of Treasury posted $19.3B, compared with the last revised reading of $121.2B.

     

    US Total Net TIC Flows

    Today in the US, the total Net TIC Flows for Feb 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for a reading of around $80-$85B in Feb 2017, compared with the last $110.4B.

     

    The outcome was on the lower side, as total Net TIC Flows came in at $19.3B. The last reading was revised up from $110.4B to $121.2B. On the other hand, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $53.4B, compared with the last revised reading of $5.9B. The report added that “Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in February; net purchases were $35.9 billion.  Net purchases by private foreign investors were $41.1 billion, while net sales by foreign official institutions were $5.2 billion”.

     

    Overall, the US Dollar is struggling, and it looks like it won’t be easy for USD/CHF to gain pace above the 1.0040 and 1.0060 resistance levels.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar recently fell close to the 1.00 handle against the Swiss Franc, and traded as low as 1.0007. Later, the USD/CHF pair started a recovery, and moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0089 high to 1.0007 low.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    However, the recovery could not last long, as the pair faced sellers near two bearish trend lines with resistance at 1.0040 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0089 high to 1.0007 low also acted as a resistance at 1.0058 and prevented further gains.

     

    At the moment, the pair is slowly moving down along with the trend lines and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the current trend continues, there is a chance of USD/CHF retesting the last swing low of 1.0010.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – Is This Real Break In Dollar To Swiss Franc?

    USD/CHF Forecast – Is This Real Break In Dollar To Swiss Franc?

    • – The US Dollar made a nice recovery from the 0.9813 low against the Swiss Franc, and approaching 1.00.
    • – The USD/CHF is currently attempting to settle above two important bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.9960-80 on the 4-hour chart.
    • – The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator for March 2017 released by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research posted a rise from 106.9 (revised) to 107.6.

     

    KOF Swiss Leading Indicator

    Today in Switzerland, the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator for March 2017 was released by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research. The market was positioned for a decline from the last reading of 107.2 to 106 in March 2017.

     

    However, the outcome was better, as the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator posted a rise of 107.6. However, the last reading was revised to 106.9 from 107.2. The report added that the current rise indicates “that the Swiss economy should grow at above average rates in the near future”, and the current indicators “stands markedly above its long-term average for the second time in a row”.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which means it won’t be easy for the USD/CHF pair to continue its rise towards 0.9980 and 1.00.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar declined heavily earlier this week against the Swiss Franc towards 0.9800. The USD/CHF pair traded as low as 0.9813 where it found support and started moving higher. First, it broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0170 high to 0.9813 low.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis Dollar Swiss Franc

     

    It prompted a move towards above two important bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.9960-80 on the 4-hour chart. The same trend line resistance is acting as a hurdle, as the pair attempts a move above 0.9980.

     

    The pair has almost closed above 0.9960, but I think the most important resistance is near 0.9990 and 1.0. The stated levels coincide with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0170 high to 0.9813 low. Also, the 100 simple moving average is at 0.9991. So, as long as the pair does not close above 1.00, it’s hard to call the current break attempt as a real upside move.

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  • USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

    USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

    • – The US Dollar fell sharply against the Swiss Franc recently after clearing the 1.0060 support area.
    • – The USD/CHF pair broke a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0080 on the 4-hours chart.
    • – The Swiss Trade Balance for Feb 2017 released by the Federal Customs Administration posted a trade surplus of 3.11B, less than the forecast of 3.850B.

     

    Swiss Trade Balance

    Today in Switzerland, the Trade Balance for Feb 2017 was released by the Federal Customs Administration. The market was expecting the balance amount between import and export to post a surplus of 3.850B in Feb 2017, compared with the previous 4.73B.

     

    The outcome a bit lower than the forecast, as the Swiss trade surplus in Feb 2017 was 3.11B. The last reading was revised to 4.83B. The Swiss Exports of goods and services in Feb 2017 declined by 2.2%, compared with the last -3.6%. Moreover, the Swiss Imports of goods and services in Feb 2017 increased 2.9%, compared with the last -3.9%.

     

    Overall, the result neutral, and might not have a negative impact on the Swiss franc, which means USD/CHF might continue heading lower towards 0.9920.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was under a lot of bearish pressure recently against the Swiss Franc, as it moved below 1.00. Earlier, the USD/CHF failed to hold an important support area near 1.0060. It resulted in a sharp drop of more than 100 pips.

     

    USD/CHF Technical Analysis Dollar Franc

     

    During the downside move, the pair broke a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0080 on the 4-hours chart. It also moved below the 100 simple moving average on the same chart at 1.0085. It traded as low as 0.9942 from where it recovered. However, the recovery failed near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0170 high to 0.9942 low.

     

    The pair is once again moving down, and might retest the recent low of 0.9942. And, if the US Dollar sellers remain in action, there is even a chance of a break below 0.9940 for a move towards 0.9920 or 0.9900. On the upside, the 1.00 is the most important resistance area where sellers might appear.

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  • EUR/CHF – Euro To Extend Gains Vs Swiss Franc?

    EUR/CHF – Euro To Extend Gains Vs Swiss Franc?

    • – The Euro traded higher against the Swiss Franc, and moved above the 1.0720 resistance.
    • – The EUR/CHF pair is currently above 100 simple moving average and a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
    • – Today in Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator was released by UBS.

     

    UBS Consumption Indicator

    Today in Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator, which is a leading indicator of private consumption trends and the most important component of Swiss GDP was released by UBS. The market was aligned for no major increase from the last reading of 1.49 in Nov 2016.

     

    However, the result was mixed and mostly on the lower side. The UBS Consumption Indicator for Nov 2016 came in at 1.43. And, the last reading was revised down from 1.49 to 1.39.  The report added that “Another strong month in domestic tourism and the positive trend on the automobile market made the rise possible. Initially a solid start is to be expected for 2017, but momentum is expected to subside”.

     

    The result may have a short-term impact on the Swiss Franc, but judging at the technical analysis, the EUR/CHF pair may trade higher. The most important resistance on the upside is near 1.0800.

     

    EUR/CHF Technical Analysis

    The Euro recently declined towards 1.0677 against the Swiss Franc from where a recovery mode was initiated. The EUR/CHF pair moved higher and cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0897 high to 1.0677 low.

     

    EUR/CHF Technical Analysis Euro Swiss Franc

     

    Moreover, the pair also closed above a bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/CHF at 1.0720. Lastly, the pair also broke the 100 simple moving average on the same chart to open the doors for more gains.

     

    At the moment, the pair is facing sellers near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0897 high to 1.0677 low. A break above the stated level could trigger more gains in the near term. The market sentiment is positive for the pair, suggesting more upsides towards 1.0800. The H4 RSI has also moved above the 50 level, which is a bullish sign in the short term for EUR/CHF.

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