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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Pound Turned Bearish Below 0.8720

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Pound Turned Bearish Below 0.8720

    • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8851 against the British Pound faced strong offers.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair moved down, broke the 0.8750 support and a bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart.
    • – Earlier today, the UK Claimant Count Change reported by the National Statistics posted a change of -10.1 in Dec 2016, better than the forecast of +5K.

     

    UK Employment Report

    Today, the UK saw the release of the employment figures by the National Statistics. The expectation was a chance of 5K in the Claimant Count Change in Dec 2016, and the unemployment rate was forecasted to remain at 4.8%.

     

    However, the result was better than the forecast, as the change was -10.1K in Dec 2016, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.8%. The report added that “There were 31.80 million people in work, little changed compared with June to August 2016 but 294,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 23.25 million people working full-time, 209,000 more than for a year earlier“.

     

    Overall, the result was better than the market forecast, which may help the British Pound in gaining bids. It means the EUR/GBP pair recent break may put further pressure on buyers as long as the pair is below 0.8750.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro gained a lot earlier this week against the British Pound, and traded past the 0.8800 level. However, it faced strong selling interest near 0.8850, which resulted in a sharp downside move recently.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

     

    The EUR/GBP pair moved down, and broke a few key support levels. First, there was a close below 0.8800, then there was a break below the 0.8750 support along with a bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart.

     

    There was also a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8451 low to 0.8851 high. However, the pair just managed to hold the downside near 0.8600, and the 100 simple moving average (H4).

     

    It is currently moving back higher, but most likely to face sellers near the broken support levels like 0.8700 and 0.8750. The highlighted trend line was clearly a major support, and a break below it can be seen as a bearish drift.

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  • GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

    GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

    • – The British Pound declined recently towards 140.00 against the Japanese yen.
    • – The GBP/JPY pair after finding support started a recovery, but faced sellers near 141.20.
    • – In the UK, the Industrial Production released by the National Statistics posted a rise of 2% in Nov 2016, more than the forecast of 0.6%.

     

    UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production

    In the UK today, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures were released by the National Statistics. The market was aligned for an increase of 0.6% in the Industrial Production in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was a rise of 2% in the UK Industrial Production. Similarly, the UK Manufacturing Production posted a rise of 1.2% in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago, better than the forecast of 0.4%. The report mentioned that the “increase in production was due to an increase in mining and quarrying output following the end of a maintenance period in the oil and gas industry and an increase in manufacturing”.

     

     

    Overall, the result was positive, but seems like the GBP buyers are not impressed, and as a result, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to decline back towards 140.00.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound was under a lot of bearish pressure against the Japanese yen recently, as it fell close to the 140.00 handle. The GBP/JPY pair somehow managed to find support near the stated level, and started correcting higher.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis Pound Yen

     

    The pair moved higher, and broke the 141.00 resistance area. However, it failed to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 144.04 high to 140.17 low. There was no H4 close above the stated fib level.

     

    It looks like the pair is struggling during the current recovery wave and may decline back towards 140.00. Even if it manages to move further higher, there are a couple of bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart, waiting to act as a resistance near 142.00. Overall, the trend is bearish in GBP/JPY, and any major rallies may be seen as selling opportunities.

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  • GBP/USD – Double Bottom In Making For British Pound

    GBP/USD – Double Bottom In Making For British Pound

    • – The British Pound recently traded near 1.2200 twice against the US Dollar, but failed to break it.
    • – It looks like a double bottom pattern is forming near 1.2200, looking at the 4-hours chart of GBP/USD.
    • – In the UK, the PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics posted an increase from 52.8 to 54.2 in Dec 2016.

     

    UK Construction PMI

    In the UK today, the PMI Construction that shows business conditions in the UK construction sector was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics.

     

    The market was expecting no change from the last reading of 52.8 in Dec 2016. The result was better than the forecast, as there was an increase from 52.8 to 54.2 in Dec 2016. Commenting on the report, the Senior Economist at IHS Markit and author of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Tim Moore, stated “December’s survey data confirmed a solid rebound in UK construction output during the final quarter of 2016. All three main areas of construction activity have started to recover from last summer’s soft patch, but in each case growth remains much weaker than the cyclical peaks seen in 2014”.

     

     

    Overall, the market trend and sentiment are positive for the British Pound, which may lift it towards 1.2300 against the US Dollar.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made a couple of downside moves, and tested the 1.2200 support area. The stated level acted as a barrier and prevented downside moves on more than two occasions. So, there is a chance that the GBP/USD is forming a double bottom pattern near the same area.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis Pound Dollar

     

    The pair is already trading higher, and broke a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 1.2250. Moreover, the pair is also above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2387 high to 1.2200 low.

     

    So, there is a chance that the pair may head towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2387 high to 1.2200 low at 1.2293. If the British Pound buyers remain in charge and the double bottom pattern plays well, there can be more upsides with a possible test of 1.2300-10.

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  • EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

    EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

    • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8667 against the British Pound found sellers, and moved down.
    • – The EUR/GBP moved down sharply, and broke a major support trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart.
    • – The Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    The markets are mostly closed today, so there is no major release. In the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by the Markit Economics.

     

    The market was expecting no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016. The result was in line with the forecast, as there was no increase from the last reading of 54.9. Commenting on the report, the Chief Business Economist at HIS, Chris Williamson, stated “Eurozone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production. Policymakers will be doubly-pleased to see the manufacturing sector’s improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures”.

     

     

    There was no negative market sentiment for the Euro, so there is a chance that the shared currency may bounce back from the 0.8500 support against the British Pound.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice attempt to break the 0.8680 barrier against the British Pound, but failed near 0.8660. The EUR/GBP pair started moving down, and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

     

    The pair recently traded below a major bullish trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart. However, the pair is currently finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

     

    So, there is a chance that the recent break is false, and the pair may bounce back from the 0.8500 support. The EUR/GBP pair is also above the 100 simple moving average (H4 chart), which is a positive sign. If at all there are more declines, then the pair can test the 0.8460 support area in the short term. The H4 RSI has moved below the 50 level, calling for a bearish break.

     

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