Crude Oil Price To Consolidate Above $48.60 Vs US Dollar

• – Crude oil price is finding it hard to stay above the all-important $50 resistance against the US Dollar.
• – There is a major contracting triangle pattern with resistance near $49.70 forming on the hourly chart.
• – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (08, August 2017) report was released.
• – According to the report, the Crude Oil Stock decreased by -7.839M compared with the last 1.779M.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Figure

Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report (08, August 2017) was released by the American Petroleum Institute industry. The market was positioned for a decline of around 4 million barrels on a weekly basis compared with the last 1.779M.

However, the actual result was on the lower side, as there was a decline of 7.839 million barrels. Next up is the petroleum report by the Energy Information Administration later today at 10:30 a.m. ET. The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles is forecasted to decline by -2.800M, compared with the last -1.527M.

Overall, the market may trade cautiously, and crude oil price may continue to range trade below $50 in the near term.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

After trading close to the $50.50 level crude oil price faced offers against the US Dollar. The price failed to remain above the $50 handle for a long time and later moved down. There was a close below the $50 handle and the price traded as low as $48.40.

Later, the price started consolidating in a range and moved above the $49.00 level. However, the price is struggling to trade above $49.50 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a major contracting triangle pattern with resistance near $49.70 forming on the hourly chart.

The price recently traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $48.62 low to $49.87 high. On the upside, there is a connecting bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at $49.20.

As long as the price is below the $49.60 level and faces sellers near 100 hourly simple moving average, it may continue to consolidate in a range in the near term.

Crude Oil Price May Resume Its Decline Vs US Dollar

• Crude oil price after trading towards $52.00-52.05 against the US Dollar found sellers and moved down.
• There was break below a major bullish trend line with support at $51.60 on the hourly chart.
• Recently in the US, the Baker Hughes Rig Counts posted a reading of 722, up from the last 720.

US Baker Hughes Rig Counts and GDP

Recently in the US, there were a few important releases like the Baker Hughes Rig Counts and US GDP for Q1 2017. The Baker Hughes Rig Counts was expected to post a rise to 725, but it came in at 722, up from the last 720.

The US Gross Domestic Product preliminary reading for Q1 2017 was above the forecast, as there was a rise of 1.2%, more than the last 0.7%. The report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis also mentioned that the “price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent“.

Overall, the results were positive, and helped the US Dollar, and pushed oil price below the $51.60-50 support zone.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

This past week, there were good upsides in crude oil price as it moved above the $51.00 and $51.50 resistance levels against the US Dollar. However, the price was seen struggling above the $52.00 level, and made a short-term top near $52.05.

The price started a decline and broke a major area at $51.60-50 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The decline was such that the price even broke the $50 support and traded towards $48.40-20. A low was formed at $48.21 before the price started a recovery and moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.04 high to $48.21 low.

At the moment, the price is trading above $49.50, but struggling to trade above a major pivot area at $50.00-50.10. The stated area also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.04 high to $48.21 low. So, it won’t be easy for buyers to break it, and price may move down back towards $49.00-49.20 in the near term.