USD/CHF Forecast – Is This Real Break In Dollar To Swiss Franc?

• – The US Dollar made a nice recovery from the 0.9813 low against the Swiss Franc, and approaching 1.00.
• – The USD/CHF is currently attempting to settle above two important bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.9960-80 on the 4-hour chart.
• – The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator for March 2017 released by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research posted a rise from 106.9 (revised) to 107.6.

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator

Today in Switzerland, the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator for March 2017 was released by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research. The market was positioned for a decline from the last reading of 107.2 to 106 in March 2017.

However, the outcome was better, as the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator posted a rise of 107.6. However, the last reading was revised to 106.9 from 107.2. The report added that the current rise indicates “that the Swiss economy should grow at above average rates in the near future”, and the current indicators “stands markedly above its long-term average for the second time in a row”.

Overall, the result was positive, which means it won’t be easy for the USD/CHF pair to continue its rise towards 0.9980 and 1.00.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar declined heavily earlier this week against the Swiss Franc towards 0.9800. The USD/CHF pair traded as low as 0.9813 where it found support and started moving higher. First, it broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0170 high to 0.9813 low.

It prompted a move towards above two important bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.9960-80 on the 4-hour chart. The same trend line resistance is acting as a hurdle, as the pair attempts a move above 0.9980.

The pair has almost closed above 0.9960, but I think the most important resistance is near 0.9990 and 1.0. The stated levels coincide with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0170 high to 0.9813 low. Also, the 100 simple moving average is at 0.9991. So, as long as the pair does not close above 1.00, it’s hard to call the current break attempt as a real upside move.