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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded higher and moved above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B.

     

    Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥559.8B, compared with the last surplus of ¥112.3B.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B. Exports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 14.1%, less than the forecast of 14.9%. Imports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 12%, less than the forecast of 15%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the near term, but remains supported above 112.70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar gained decent upside momentum this week and traded above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and is currently correcting lower towards 112.80-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. Therefore, if the pair continues to moves down, there are chances of it finding bids near the 112.80-70 levels.

     

    On the upside, the 113.00 handle is an initial resistance followed by the last swing high of 113.08. A close above 113.80 could take the pair towards the next resistance at 113.50. Overall, buying dips in the near term towards the 112.80-70 levels can be considered with a stop below the trend line support.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is in a downtrend and is trading below the 132.80 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a rise of 2% compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 5.3%, which was less than the last +5.4%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization posted an increase of 3.3% in August 2017, which was more than the last decline of 1.8%.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair will most likely continue to move lower towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decent rise above 133.00 against the Japanese Yen found sellers near 133.50. The EUR/JPY pair started a downside wave and broke a couple of important support levels such as 133.00 and 132.80.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair also cleared a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was even a close below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high.

     

    At present, the pair is trading below the 132.25 support and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high. Therefore, there are chances of more declines in the near term, probably towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    On the upside, the broken support at 132.80 is now a major resistance along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 38% as there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%.

     

    Japanese Machine Tool Orders

    Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association. The market was positioned for a rise of around 38% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of 38% since there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%. It was also above the last +36.3%. Earlier, the Machinery new orders figure for August 2017 posted a rise of 4.4% compared with the same month a year ago. It was above the forecast of 0.8% and a lot better than the last decline of 7.5%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might continue to struggle in the short term and could even retest the 112.00 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar recently attempted a break of the 112.80 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum and started a downside move below the 112.60 level.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair declined and traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart. A low was formed at 111.97 before the pair started a correction. It recovered well and traded above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low.

     

    However, a bearish trend line at 112.60 prevented gains along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 112.62 to act as a major hurdle for buyers.

     

    As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 112.60 and the 100 hourly SMA, there is a chance of USD/JPY retesting the 112.00 support area.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Extend Its Decline Vs Japanese Yen

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Extend Its Decline Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The British Pound is under bearish pressure and recently broke the 150.40 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 150.30 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in the UK, the PMI Construction for Sep 2017 was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 50.8 as there was a decline from 51.1 to 48.1.

     

    UK’s Construction PMI

    Today in the UK, the PMI Construction for Sep 2017 was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a minor decline from the last reading of 51.1 to 50.8.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 50.8, as there was a decline from 51.1 to 48.1. The PMI registered a contraction in Sep 2017 the business activity fell for the first time in 13 months. The report added that:

     

    September data revealed a difficult month for the UK construction sector, as a sustained drop in new work led to the first reduction in overall business activity since August 2016. Survey respondents attributed the drop in workloads to fragile confidence and subdued risk appetite among clients, especially in the commercial building sector.

     

    Overall, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to decline and it could even break the recent low of 149.27 in the near term.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound faced a lot of selling pressure recently and started a downside move from the 151.60 swing high against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair declined and broke a few important support levels like 151.20, 151.00 and 150.40.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The pair even traded below the 150.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 149.27 from where a recovery was initiated. The pair moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 150.95 high to 129.27 low.

     

    However, there is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 150.30 on the hourly chart.  The pair is currently struggling to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 150.95 high to 129.27 low.

     

    Therefore, there are high chances that the GBP/JPY pair would break the trend line support at 149.80 support and decline back towards the 149.30 zone.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro faced heavy offers above the 134.30 level against the Japanese Yen and started a downside move.
    • – There was a break below two major bullish trend lines with support near 133.70 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for July 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was an increase of 0.8% in the index.

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for July 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was an increase of 0.8% in the index. Looking at the Corporate Services Producer Price Index for all items excluding International transportation, there was an increase of 0.7% in July 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair under pressure and it is likely to decline further towards the 131.90-80 support levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a nice uptrend this past week and moved above the 134.00 handle against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded towards the 134.30-40 levels where it faced a key resistance, failed to break it and later started a downside move.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The downside move was strong, as the pair broke two major bullish trend lines with support near 133.70 on the hourly chart. There was also a close below the 133.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair traded as low as 131.91 and corrected towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 134.23 high to 131.91 low. The 132.40-50 levels are acting as a hurdle and preventing further recoveries.

     

    The pair is again moving lower and likely to gain pace towards 132.00. It might even break the 132.00 support and trade towards the recent low of 131.91. A break of 131.91 could take the pair towards the 131.80 level.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Eyeing Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September 2017 (Prelim) reading was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 53.4, but there was a rise in the PMI from 52.2 to 52.6.

     

    Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September 2017 (Prelim) reading was released. The market was positioned for a rise from the last reading of 52.2 to 53.4.

     

    The outcome was below the forecast of 53.4, but there was a rise in the PMI from 52.2 to 52.6. This is a new four-month high, and the Flash Manufacturing Output Index jumped to 53.5, which is a lot more than the last 52.5 and strongest growth for four months. Commenting on the same, the Principal Economist at IHS Markit, Annabel Fiddes, stated:

     

    Latest data signalled a further improvement in growth momentum across Japan’s manufacturing sector with the PMI rising to a four-month high in September.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might attempt further gains in the near term and could even break 112.60-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar remained in a nice uptrend and traded above the 111.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even managed to break the 112.00 handle and traded towards the 112.70 level

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair was seen struggling near the 112.70-60 resistance levels and started a downside move. It corrected below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.10 low to 112.71 high. However, the downside move was protected by the 111.0 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.10 low to 112.71 high also prevented further losses along with a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.10 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently following the trend line support and trading above 112.15. Buyers need to gain momentum and take the pair above 112.50 to challenge 112.70 again. A close above 112.70 is needed for further gains in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Hold This Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend and recently traded towards 110.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production report for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.8% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a decline in the Industrial Production by 0.8%. Looking at the yearly change in the production, there was a rise of 4.7% in July 2017, similar to the last +4.7%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization declined by 1.8% in July 2017, compared with the last increase of 2.1%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips towards 110.00, but downsides remain supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a decent ground this week and moved above the 110.00 resistance level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 110.72 where it faced sellers and currently consolidating gains.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high. Moreover, there is a major ascending channel forming with support at 110.40 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like sellers might succeed in breaking the channel support at 110.40. In the mentioned scenario, the next immediate support sits at 110.20, which is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.35 low to 110.72 high.

     

    However, the most important support is near 110.00, which is just around the 50% Fib level of the same wave. The overall trend is still bullish for USD/JPY, but there can be a few downside corrections in the short term.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro traded higher and gained pace above the 130.50 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two major bullish trend lines forming with support at 130.10 and 129.80 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Business Confidence for August 2017 was released by the Istat.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was an increase in the index from the last revised reading of 107.8 to 108.1.

     

    Italian Business Confidence

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Business Confidence for August 2017 was released by the Istat. The market was positioned for a rise from the last reading of 107.7 to 108.0.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase in the index from the last revised reading of 107.8 to 108.1. The Consumer Confidence also posted a solid increase to 110.8 from the last revised reading of 106.9, whereas the market was only looking for 106.9. The report added that:

    All components improved: economic, personal, current and future (from 123.1 to 128.1, from 101.6 to 105.6, from 106.3 to 109.3 and from 108.4 to 114.0, respectively). The balance concerning expectations on unemployment lowered from 37.1 to 32.3.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair is likely to resume its uptrend and may soon retest the 130.70 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro surged higher recently above 129.50 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair gained traction and was able to break the 130.00 and 130.50 resistance level to post a new short-term high at 130.70.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    Later, the pair started a correction and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 129.10 low to 130.70 high. On the downside, there are two major bullish trend lines forming with support at 130.10 and 129.80 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.

     

    The pair recently tested the first trend line and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 129.10 low to 130.70 high, and found support.

     

    The pair is once again moving higher and likely to gather bids above the 130.40 level to challenge the 130.70 swing high. Overall, buying dips in the short term towards 130.00 or 129.80 can be considered with a tight stop.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar after trading as high as 110.94 against the Japanese Yen found sellers and moved down.
    • – There was a break below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 110.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥392.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥418.8B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for July 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥392.0B, compared with the last surplus of ¥439.9B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of ¥392.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥418.8B. Similarly, the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance posted a better than expected trade surplus of ¥337.4B, more than the forecast of ¥195.3B and the last was ¥81.4B. Imports of goods and services in July 2017 (YoY) increased 16.3%, less than the forecast of 17%.  Exports of goods and services in July 2017 (YoY) increased 13.4%, less than the forecast of 13.6%.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, and may continue to weigh on the USD/JPY pair as long as it is below 110.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded nicely earlier this week and moved above the 110.50 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average against the Japanese yen. Later, the USD/JPY pair after trading as high as 110.94 found sellers and started a downside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 110.94 high. During the downside move, there was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair even traded below the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 110.94 high.

     

    At the moment, buyers are protecting losses below a major support area of 109.65-60. There is a chance of a minor bounce in USD/JPY before the pair dives down one more time. On the upside, the broken support at 110.00 is a crucial resistance going forward.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains In Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains In Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    • The Euro after trading towards 128.00 against the Japanese Yen started an uptrend and moved above 130.00.
    • There is an ascending channel pattern forming with support at 129.80 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • Today in the Euro Zone, the preliminary Gross Domestic Product figure for Q2 2017 was released by the Eurostat.
    • The outcome was above the forecast of +2.1%, as there was a rise of 2.2% in the GDP (YoY).

     

    Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product

    Today in the Euro Zone, the preliminary Gross Domestic Product figure for Q2 2017 was released by the Eurostat. The market was positioned for a rise of 2.1% in the GDP compared with the same quarter a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +2.1%, as there was a rise of 2.2% in the GDP. In terms of the quarterly change, the GDP came in at +0.6%, just as the market expected and similar to the last reading. The report added that:

    Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2017, after +1.9% and +2.1% respectively in the previous quarter.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair remains in an uptrend and likely to move higher towards the 130.40-50 levels in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro was under a lot of pressure this past against the Japanese Yen and traded below 130.00. The EUR/JPY pair broke the 129.00 and 129.50 support levels to trade as low as 128.04 where it found buyers.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The recovered sharply and moved above the 129.50 resistance area and the 100 hourly simple moving average. At the moment, the pair is following an ascending channel pattern with support at 129.80 on the hourly chart.

     

    There was a minor dip recently towards 129.60, but the pair quickly recovered above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 130.39 high to 129.58 low.

     

    The pair may soon break 130.20 for further gains in the near term. On the downside, dips towards the 129.80-130.05 levels remain supported. One may even consider buying dips with a stop below 129.75.

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