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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher from 112.00 and is approaching a major break against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B.

     

    Japan’s Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks

    Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Dec 1, 2017) was released by Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the Foreign investment in Japan stocks to be around ¥-160.0B compared with the last ¥-155.2B.

     

    The outcome was around the market forecast, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks were ¥-167.1B. The last reading was revised from ¥-155.2B to ¥-155.3B. Looking at the Foreign bond investment, it came in at ¥-208.1B, compared with the last revised reading of ¥138.0B.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is preparing for the next move, and it might soon break either 112.50 or move below 112.10.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar made a nice upside move and traded above the 113.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and later started a downside correction. The stated correction was such that the pair moved a few pips below the 112.00 support.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    A low as formed near 111.98 and the pair started moving higher. It has already traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low. However, the 100 hourly simple moving average is protecting gains near 112.50.

     

    It seems like there is a monster contracting triangle forming with resistance at 112.50 on the hourly chart. On the downside, the triangle support is at 112.10. Therefore, we might soon witness a break either above 112.50 or below 112.10 in the near term.

     

    The current market sentiment is positive for USD/JPY, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break 112.50, triangle, 100 hourly SMA and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.86 high to 111.98 low.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Bounce Back Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Bounce Back Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 133.25 swing high against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 132.75 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Oct 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017 (MoM).

     

    German Import Price Index

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Oct 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was around the forecast as there was a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017. However, it was below the last increase of 0.9%. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise in the index by 2.6% in Oct 2017, less than the last +3.0%.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move and traded above the 133.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded as high as 133.25 and later started a downside move. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.22 low to 133.25 high.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 132.75 on the hourly chart. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.22 low to 133.25 high. However, the downside move was prevented by the 132.10 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair is currently recovering and it broke a bearish trend line at 132.25 on the same chart. It needs to gain momentum above the 132.50 level to recover further in the near term.

     

    Overall, the pair might continue to move higher towards 132.50-60 as long as it is positioned above the 132.00 handle and the 100 hourly SMA. The next major resistance above 132.60 is at 132.85.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Retest 111.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Retest 111.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar is trading lower and remains well below the 111.80-112.00 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 111.80 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 0.8% in the index in Sep 2017 (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by 0.8% in Sep 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 0.8% in the index in Sep 2017. However, this was a lit lower than the previous increase of 0.9%. Looking at the Services Producer Price Index for all items excluding International transportation, there was a rise of 0.7% in Sep 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under pressure and it is likely to continue moving down towards the last swing low of 111.06.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major downside move from the 112.70 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded below a couple of important support levels such as 112.20 and 111.80. It traded as low as 111.06 from where a recovery was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.71 high to 111.06 low. However, the upside move is facing many resistances on the upside around the 111.60 and 111.80 levels along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.71 high to 111.06 low acted as a hurdle recently. There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 111.80 on the hourly chart.

     

    Therefore, any major upsides might face sellers near the 111.80 and 112.00 levels in the near term. On the downside, the recent low of 111.06 could be tested followed by 111.00.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro declined recently and traded below the 132.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s All Industry Activity Index

    Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.4% in the index compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index. It was also well below the last increase of 0.1%. The Indices of Construction Industry Activity was down by 2.3% in Sep 2017, and the Indices of Industrial Production was down by 1%.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a major downside move from the 133.88 swing high against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair declined and broke a couple of important support levels such as 132.60 and 132.00. It even traded below the 131.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 131.17 and later started an upside correction. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low. However, the broken support near 132.40-50 is now acting as a resistance. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low is near 132.55 and the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, there are many resistances on the upside for EUR/JPY and it won’t be easy for the pair to move past 132.60.

     

    In the short term, selling rallies can be opted near 132.45 and 132.60 as long as there is break and close above the 100 hourly SMA.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar To Trade Higher Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar found support near 113.10 against the Japanese Yen and moved higher.
    • – There was a break above two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Oct 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by 3.1% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of +3.1% as there was an increase in the index by 3.4%, which is also better than the last +3%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.3% in the index, which was better than the forecast of +0.1% and also above the last +0.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the positive zone, and if it moves above 113.75, there can be more gains in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after a slow and steady decline traded below the 114.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded toward the 113.00 handle and formed a low at 113.08 before starting an upside correction

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low and cleared two bearish trend lines with resistance near 113.40 on the hourly chart. At present, the pair is trading near the 113.70-75 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.73 high to 113.08 low is near 113.71. Therefore, a close above 113.75 is needed for more gains in USD/JPY.

     

    On the upside, the next upside target could be 113.95 and the 114.10 levels. On the downside, the 113.50 level is a decent support followed by the 113.10 swing low.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro declined recently, but found support near 132.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 132.10 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Labor Cash Earnings report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5%, as there was an increase of 0.9% in the Labor Cash Earnings (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings

    Today in Japan, the Labor Cash Earnings report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.5% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +0.5%, as there was an increase of 0.9% in the Labor Cash Earnings in Sep 2017. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down from 0.7% to 0.9%.

     

    Later today, the Euro Zone’s retail sales figure for Sep 2017 will be released. An increase of more than 1% in sales (MoM) could help the Euro and EUR/JPY pair in gaining momentum in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro failed to break an important resistance area near 133.10-133.12 against the Japanese Yen and started a downside move. The EUR/JPY pair declined and broke a few important supports like 132.40-50 and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded towards 132.00 where buyers appeared. Moreover, a major bullish trend line with support near 132.10 on the hourly chart also protected further losses. It is currently recovering and trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.12 high to 131.99 low.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near the 132.40 level followed by the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.12 high to 131.99 low at 132.56. The 100 hourly simple moving average is also at 132.65 to act as a resistance.

     

    Therefore, the pair might correct higher, but it will most likely face heavy sell offers near the 132.50 and 132.60 levels.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Holding Uptrend Support Vs Japanese Yen

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Holding Uptrend Support Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The British Pound surged higher recently and moved above 151.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at 151.20 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 44.0 as there was a rise from 43.9 to 44.5.

    Japan’s Consumer Confidence

    Today in Japan, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a minor rise in the index from the last reading of 43.9 to 44.0.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 44.0 as there was a rise from 43.9 to 44.5. Looking at the overall livelihood index, there was a rise from 42.5 to 43.0, and the income growth index was up from 41.8 to 42.5. The report added that:

     

    This survey was conducted on October 15th, 2017. It covered 8,400 households (Households of two or more persons are 5,712, One-person households are 2,688). The response rate was 69.7% (Households of two or more persons: 74.7%, One-person households: 59.3%).

     

    Overall, the GBP/JPY pair is likely to move higher as long as there is no break below the 151.00 support.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a nice upside move from the 149.00-149.20 support area against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair surged higher and broke a few key resistance levels such as 150.00, 150.40 and 151.00 and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 151.94 from where a minor correction was initiated. It declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 149.19 low to 151.94 high. However, the pair is currently holding a short-term bullish trend line with support at 151.20 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is important at 151.20. As long as the pair is above 151.20 and 151.00, it would resume its uptrend. A break of the 151.00 support would ignite a downside wave towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 149.19 low to 151.94 high near 150.55.

     

    On the upside, the 151.50 level is an initial resistance. Above 151.50, the pair might retest 151.90.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Following Bullish Channel Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar remains in an uptrend above 113.50 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2% (YoY).

     

    Japanese Retail Trade

    Today in Japan, the Retail Trade report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a retail trade to increase by 2.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The outcome was below the forecast of +2.5% as there was an increase in the trade by 2.2%, but this was more than the last revised 1.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.8% in the retail trade in Sep 2017, which was better than the last decline of 1.7%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair declined a few pips, but the pair remains well supported above the 113.50 level in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar is following a decent uptrend above 112.80 and 113.50 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded as high as 114.49 before starting a short-term correction towards 113.50.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair broke the 114.40 support and moved towards 113.50. At present, a major ascending channel with support at 113.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair is acting as a key barrier for sellers and preventing further declines.

     

    The channel support might produce a bounce towards 114.00 in the short term. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 114.49 high to 113.52 low at 113.74. Above the mentioned 113.74, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 113.80 to act as a resistance.

     

    It seems like there can be a couple of swing moves between 113.50-114.00 before the pair moves higher and challenge the channel resistance once again.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded higher and moved above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B.

     

    Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥559.8B, compared with the last surplus of ¥112.3B.

     

    The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B. Exports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 14.1%, less than the forecast of 14.9%. Imports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 12%, less than the forecast of 15%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the near term, but remains supported above 112.70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar gained decent upside momentum this week and traded above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and is currently correcting lower towards 112.80-70.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. Therefore, if the pair continues to moves down, there are chances of it finding bids near the 112.80-70 levels.

     

    On the upside, the 113.00 handle is an initial resistance followed by the last swing high of 113.08. A close above 113.80 could take the pair towards the next resistance at 113.50. Overall, buying dips in the near term towards the 112.80-70 levels can be considered with a stop below the trend line support.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is in a downtrend and is trading below the 132.80 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a rise of 2% compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 5.3%, which was less than the last +5.4%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization posted an increase of 3.3% in August 2017, which was more than the last decline of 1.8%.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair will most likely continue to move lower towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decent rise above 133.00 against the Japanese Yen found sellers near 133.50. The EUR/JPY pair started a downside wave and broke a couple of important support levels such as 133.00 and 132.80.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair also cleared a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was even a close below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high.

     

    At present, the pair is trading below the 132.25 support and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high. Therefore, there are chances of more declines in the near term, probably towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    On the upside, the broken support at 132.80 is now a major resistance along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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