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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro In Downtrend Below 134.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro In Downtrend Below 134.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is following a downtrend and is currently trading below 134.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a declining channel forming with resistance at 133.10 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Machinery New Orders report for Dec 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.2% as there was a decline in order by 5% (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Machinery New Orders

    Today in Japan, the Machinery New Orders report for Dec 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was looking for a 2.2% rise in orders in Dec 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of +2.2% as there was a decline in order by 5% (YoY). It was well below the last increase of 4.1%. Moreover, the monthly change posted a decline of 11.9%, whereas the market was looking for -2.3%. This was a lot worse compared with the last increase of 5.7%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair may correct a few pips in the short term, but it remains in a downtrend below the 133.40 resistance.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from well above 134.50 and declined by more than 100 pips recently against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair faced a lot of selling pressure and moved below the 134.00 and 133.80 support levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair is now trading below the 133.50 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 131.59 and recovered recently. However, the upside move was capped by 133.30 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at 133.10 on the hourly chart. On the downside, an initial support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.59 low to 133.38 high.

     

    There are chances of a couple of swing moves in EUR/JPY around 133.00 in the near term. Once there is a close above the 133.50 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, the pair could gain upside momentum.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Decline Below 148.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Decline Below 148.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The British Pound is under a lot of pressure and it recently declined below 149.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 149.30 and 149.80 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.2% as there was a rise in the GDP by 0.1% in Q4 2017.

    Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

    Today in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.2% in the GDP in Q4 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 0.2% as there was a rise in the GDP by 0.1% in Q4 2017. This was well below the last reading of 0.6%. In terms of the yearly change, the preliminary reading suggests a rise of 0.5% in the GDP, less than the forecast of 0.9%.

     

    The GBP/JPY pair is currently declining, but there could be a minor upside correction towards the 149.30 and 149.80 resistance levels.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a fresh downside move from well above the 154.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair declined, broke the 152.00 and 150.00 support levels, and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The fell below the 149.00 support as well and traded as low as 148.70 recently. It seems like the pair could decline further towards the 1.236 Fib extension of the last wave from the 148.91 low to 150.82 high at 148.46. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 149.30 and 149.80 on the hourly chart.

     

    If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, the 149.30 and 149.80 resistance levels are likely to act as a strong barrier.

     

    Overall, the pair decline below 148.50 and if sellers remains in control, it could even test the 1.618 Fib extension of the last wave from the 148.91 low to 150.82 high at 147.73.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar started to decline from the 110.25 high and moved below 109.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for the index to increase from 55.9 to 56.5.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9. The last reading was revised up from 55.9 to 56.0. The report added that:

     

    This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it seems like it could extend declines below 108.50 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded above the 110.00 level this past week against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 110.43 and later it started a downside wave. An intermediate high was formed at 110.26 from where the pair crashed below 109.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart. The pair broke the 109.00 and 108.80 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 108.53 and it currently remains at a risk of more declines.

     

    An initial resistance on the upside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 110.26 high to 108.53 low. It seems like the pair may extend declines and it could even break the 108.50 support.

     

    On the upside, the pair faces important resistances near the 109.00 and 109.20 levels.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend above 135.30 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend above 135.30 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is struggling to move above the $136.15-20 resistance area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 135.60 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for January 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 54.4 as there was a rise in the PMI to 54.8.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for January 2018 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from 54.4 in Jan 2018.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 54.4 as there was a rise in the PMI to 54.8. This is the third consecutive month of an increase in Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. The report added:

     

    The Japanese manufacturing sector gained further momentum at the start of 2018. Output and new order growth rates accelerated, while businesses raised employment amid rising backlogs of work. Robust demand also encouraged firms to pass on part of the sharp rise in cost burdens to customers.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is stable above the 135.30 and 135.00 support levels, but it has to clear sell offers near 136.15 to gain further momentum.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro remains in a decent uptrend above the 135.00 handle against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair recently traded higher and tested an important resistance at 136.15-136.20. The mentioned 136.20 resistance is significant and it recently stopped an upside break on many occasions.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair failed to gain pace and started a downside correction. It moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 134.12 low to 136.03 high.

     

    However, the downside move was limited by 135.50 and a key bullish trend line with support at 135.60 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The pair is well supported above the 135.50-60 levels. However, it has to move past 136.20 to further accelerate higher.

     

    Once there is a proper close above 136.20, the pair could trade towards the 137.00 level in the near term. On the downside, below 135.50, the next major support is around the 135.00 handle.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Short-term Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is struggling to move above the 111.00-111.20 resistance area against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.44, but there was an increase from the last reading of 0.11 (revised) to 0.27.

     

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index

    Recently in in the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for the index to increase from 0.15 to 0.44.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.44 as the index posted a reading of 0.27. Moreover, the last reading was revised down from 0.15 to 0.11. However, there was an overall increase of more than 0.10 points.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near a major support area of 110.65, which must hold to avoid further declines in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was mostly seen trading in a range above the 110.50 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair recently traded above the 111.00 level, but is struggled to break the 111.20 resistance level and declined.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded lower and broke the 111.80 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 110.53 from where the pair started an upside recovery. The pair has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with current resistance at 111.10 on the hourly chart. The pair is holding the triangle support at 110.65, but it is struggling to move higher.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near 110.85. It is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.22 high to 110.53 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly SMA is also at 110.88. Therefore, it won’t be easy for the pair to move above 111.00, and it remains at a risk of a downside break.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Break Past 136.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Break Past 136.00 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro is gaining pace above the 135.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 135.50 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Machinery New orders figure for Nov 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of -1.4% as there was a rise in orders by 5.7% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Machinery New Orders

    Today in Japan, the Machinery New orders figure for Nov 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a decline of 1.4% in orders in Nov 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of -1.4% as there was a rise in orders by 5.7%. Looking at the yearly change, there was an increase of 4.1% in the Machinery New orders, which was a lot better than the forecast of -0.7%. It was even better than the last reading of 2.3%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair remains in an uptrend and it is very likely to break the 136.00 resistance area for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started an upside wave from the 133.00 swing low against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded higher and was able to move above the 134.50 and 135.00 resistance levels. It even traded a few pips above the 136.00 level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair formed a high at 136.09 from where it corrected lower towards 135.00. A low was formed at 134.97 from where a fresh upside wave was initiated. The pair is now above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 136.09 high to 134.97 low.

     

    On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 135.50 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The trend line support at 135.50 is a decent buy zone in the short term.

     

    On the upside, the pair is likely to break the 136.00 level and the 136.09 high for more gains. Above 136.09, the pair could accelerate toward the 136.50 level.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar in Downtrend below 111.20 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure recently and it moved below 111.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for the index to increase by around 0.4% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index. Looking at the yearly change, the index increased by 3.1%, which was less than the forecast of 3.2%. It was also less than the last reading of 3.5%.

     

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently in the bearish zone, and it will most likely decline further if it fails to move above 111.20.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure from the 113.40 swing high against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started a fresh downside wave and moved below the 112.00 and 111.00 support levels. The decline even accelerated below the 111.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 110.32 and is currently correcting higher. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low.

     

    However, there are many resistances on the upside around 111.00 and 111.20. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 111.10 and 111.15 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 111.69 high to 110.32 low at 111.00 is acting as a hurdle for buyers.

     

    Overall, it seems like USD/JPY may continue to face sellers in the near term around 111.00-111.20. On the downside, the pair could test 110.20.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Bullish above 135.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Bullish above 135.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is in a nice uptrend and is currently above the 135.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 135.20 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 54.2 as there was a decline in the PMI to 54.0 in Dec 2017.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI in Dec 2017 from the last reading of 54.2.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 54.2 as there was a decline in the PMI to 54.0 in Dec 2017. However, the overall result was very positive since output gathered momentum and new orders posted a sharp upside increase. The report added that:

     

    Japanese manufacturers marked the final month of 2017 with the greatest improvement in operating conditions since February 2014. Output growth quickened for the fifth successive month amid a broad-based rise in new orders.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the short term, but it remains supported on the downside near 135.00.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a decent upside move from the 134.00-134.10 support area against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair moved above the 134.80 and 135.00 resistance levels to register a close above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 135.63 before it started a downside correction. It traded lower and tested the 135.00 support area. It moved back higher and there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 135.20 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is now above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 135.63 high to 134.80 low. Therefore, it seems like the pair might continue to move higher toward 135.60 or even 136.00.

     

    On the downside, the broken resistance area near 135.20 and 135.00 are decent supports levels. Should the pair correct lower from the current levels, it will most likely find buyers above the 135.00 handle.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Gain Momentum above 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar has formed a decent support base around 112.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74.

     

    US NAHB Housing Market Index

    Recently in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders. The market was positioned for the index to remain stable at 70 in Dec 2017.

     

    The outcome was above the market forecast of 70 as there was a rise in the index to 74. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down to 69 from 70. Therefore, the overall increase was of 6 points in Dec 2017 to 74.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in the positive zone, but it has to break above 112.70 to gain upside traction.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar after trading lower formed a base around the 112.00 level against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 112.30 resistance and a major bearish trend line at 112.30 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair also succeeded in breaking the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. However, the pair is currently facing a major resistance around 112.70 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The 112.70 resistance also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.74 high to 112.02 low. There is also a bearish trend line at 112.65, acting as a barrier for more gains in the near term.

     

    Once there is a break above the 112.70 resistance and the pair closes above the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more upsides in the near term. On the downside, the 112.30 and the 112.10 levels are decent supports.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Start Downtrend Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Start Downtrend Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro is finding it hard to break the 133.80-90 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 133.70 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.2% as there was a rise in the index by 0.4% in Nov 2017 (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise in the index by 0.2% in Nov 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +0.2% as there was a rise in the index by 0.4% in Nov 2017. It was also above the last increase of 0.3%. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise in the index by 3.5% in Nov 2017, more than the forecast of 3.3% and better than the last +3.4%.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded nicely from the 132.20-30 support area against the Japanese Yen, and moved above the 133.00 handle. The EUR/JPY pair traded as high as 133.88 where it faced a strong resistance. The pair is currently struggling to retain the bullish bias above 133.80 and is currently moving lower.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair has already started a downside reaction and there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 133.70 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 132.25 low to 133.88 high.

     

    If the recent trend line break is real at 133.70, there are chances of more declines in EUR/JPY in the near term. The next major support is near 133.10 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 132.25 low to 133.88 high is also at 133.06.

     

    Overall, there can be more downsides in EUR/JPY, but the 133.10-20 levels are major supports, which will most likely prevent sellers from taking control.

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