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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher and is currently placed nicely above 107.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 53.1 to 52.6 in April 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3. All three key areas – Output, new orders and employment increased at a faster rate. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, stated:

     

    Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions.

     

    The USD/JPY pair was not impacted much and it remains in a bullish zone towards the 108.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support above 106.80 against the Japanese Yen, and started an upside move. The USD/JPY pair gained pace, broke many resistances such as 107.00 and 107.50, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. More importantly, it is currently trading a few pips above the last swing high at 107.77.

     

    This means the pair may perhaps continue to move higher and it could test the 1.236 fib extension of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. It could even test the 108.00 resistance level in the near term.

     

    On the downside, there are many supports above 107.50. There is also a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, any dips toward 107.50 remains supported.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is positioned nicely in a bullish trend above 132.20 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 132.20 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for March 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥498.3B as there was a trade surplus of ¥797.3B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for March 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was looking for a trade surplus of ¥498.3B in March 2018 compared with the last surplus of ¥3.4B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of ¥498.3B as there was a trade surplus of ¥797.3B. The last reading was revised down from ¥3.4B to ¥2.6B. Imports of goods and services in March 2018 declined by 0.6%, whereas the market was looking for a rise of 5.4%. Exports of goods and services in March 2018 rose by 2.1%, whereas the market was looking for a rise of 4.7%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is placed nicely above the 132.20-30 support area, and it looks set for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro followed a bullish path above the 132.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair recently declined and tested the 132.10 level where it found support. The pair recovered, and moved back in the bullish zone above 132.20 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 132.20 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The trend line acted as a support, pushed the pair above a bearish trend line with resistance at 132.52 on the same chart.

     

    The pair traded as high as 132.80 recently and it seems like it may continue to rise towards the 133.00 and 133.20 resistance levels.

     

    If there is a downside correction, then the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 132.10 low to 132.80 high at 132.64 may act as a support. However, the most important supports are at 132.40 and 132.20.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Breakdown Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is trading below the 107.00 level and it remains at a risk of more losses against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD.

     

    Japan’s Money Supply M2+CD

    Recently in Japan, the Money Supply M2+CD report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The result was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 3.2% in the Money Supply M2+CD. However, the last reading was revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently struggling to move higher and it seems like it may decline further towards or below 106.60 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled a lot to break the 107.40 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair made many attempts to move past 107.40-50, but buyers failed to gain momentum which resulted in a downside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    On the downside, the 106.65 zone is acting as a strong support. The pair recently traded as low as 106.64 and corrected higher above 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 107.05 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, the pair failed to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.39 high to 106.64 low. The pair is under pressure and it seems like it could retest the 106.65 support.

     

    If sellers remain in control, there is a chance of a downside break in the near term. The next support sits at 106.20. On the upside, there is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 107.25 on the hourly chart, which is a crucial barrier for buyers.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro traded higher and settled above the 131.00 level recently against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial connecting resistance trend line forming with barrier at 131.60 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Customs Office.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥108.7B as there was a trade surplus of ¥188.7B.

     

    Japan’s Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Customs Office. The market was looking for a trade surplus of ¥108.7B in Feb 2018 compared with the last deficit of ¥-666.6B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of ¥108.7B as there was a trade surplus of ¥188.7B. Looking at the current account in Feb 2018, there was a trade surplus of ¥2,076.0B, a bit less than the last ¥2,160.0B.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair remains in an uptrend above the 131.00 support and it may continue to move higher in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a solid upside wave from the 130.20 swing low against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair moved higher and broke a few important hurdles near the 130.80 and 131.00 levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 131.31 before starting a downside correction. It declined and tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 130.22 low to 131.61 high. However, the decline was protected by the 131.05 and 131.00 levels.

     

    It seems like the pair remains well supported above the 131.00 handle. On the upside, there is a crucial connecting resistance trend line forming with barrier at 131.60 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The pair has to break the 131.60 resistance and the trend line to gain upside momentum.

     

    On the downside, the 131.00 support holds a lot of importance. As long as the pair is above the 131.00 support, it could move higher sooner or later and break the 131.60 resistance in the near term. Above 131.60, the Euro might test the 132.00 level.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar traded towards 107.00 before starting a downside move against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%.

     

    Japan’s Monetary Base

    Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 9.6% in the Monetary Base in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%. This was also below the last increase of 9.4%. The overall result was positive, but it missed the expectation.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently correcting higher, but it will most likely face resistance on the upside near the 106.20-25 area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded higher this past week and moved above the 106.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded towards the 107.00 level where it faced selling interest, and later a downside move was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair declined and traded below the 106.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 105.65 and it is currently correcting higher. At the moment, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    More importantly, there is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart. Below the triangle resistance, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is at 106.14 to act as a hurdle.

     

    If the pair corrects further higher, it is likely to face sellers on the upside near the 106.20-25 levels. On the downside, a break below the 105.80 support may call for a retest of 105.65. Below 106.65, the pair may even test the 105.20 level.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Resistance Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Crucial Resistance Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar started a new upside wave from the 104.63 swing low against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 104.85 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.7% as there was a rise in the index by 0.6%.

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Recently in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% in the CSPI, similar to the last reading.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of +0.7% as there was a rise in the index by 0.6%. Moreover, looking at the Services Producer Price Index (All items <excluding International transportation>), it posted an increase of 0.6% from the previous year.

     

    The USD/JPY pair remains in a decent uptrend, but the pair is now approaching a crucial barrier near the 105.75-85.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support after a major decline towards the 104.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 105.00 resistance level to set the pace for more gains.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently also traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.63 high to 104.63 low. The upside move was positive since the pair broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near 104.85 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair also succeeded in trading above 105.20 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. At the moment, the pair is flirting with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.63 high to 104.63 low.

     

    On the upside, the previous support area at 105.75 is likely to act as a major hurdle along with another bearish trend line with current resistance at 105.85. The overall bias is positive above 105.00, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break the 105.75-85 resistance.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar is in a downtrend below the 106.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of -¥99.6B in Feb 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up to ¥-944.1B from ¥-943.4B. Looking at the Exports of goods and services in Feb 2018, there was a rise of 1.8%, which was less than the forecast of 1.9%. Moreover, the Imports of goods and services in Feb 2018 rose 18.5%, which was less than the forecast of 17.1%.

     

    The USD/JPY remains in a downtrend and it seems like the pair may break the 105.60 support for more losses in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was under a lot of pressure and started a downside move from well above the 106.50 level. The USD/JPY pair declined and moved below the 106.20 and 106.00 support levels to settle well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 105.59 before started an upside correction. It moved higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low. However, the upside move was protected by the 106.20 level.

     

    More importantly, there is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The recent upside move faced sellers near the channel resistance and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low.

     

    It seems like the pair may continue to move down, and below 105.60, it could head towards the 105.00 handle in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Weaken Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Weaken Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar formed a short-term top near 107.10 against the Japanese Yen, and declined.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 106.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q1 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 5.0 as there was a decline in the index from 9.7 to 2.9.

     

    Japan’s Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing

    Recently in Japan, the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q1 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the index to decline from 9.7 to 5.0.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 5.0 as there was a decline in the index from 9.7 to 2.9. Looking at the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Non-Manufacturing index, there was a decline from the last reading of 4.5 to 3.4.

     

    The USD/JPY seems to be trading below a major support at 106.90 and it may decline further in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar was in a nice uptrend as it moved above the 106.50 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. However, the USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum above the 107.00 level and it formed a short-term top near 107.05.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair started a downside move and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 105.45 low to 107.05 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 106.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    The pair seems to be moving in a bearish zone and it could decline further towards 106.25. The mentioned level is a decent support since it is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 105.45 low to 107.05 high.

     

    On the upside, the 106.90 level is an initial resistance. However, the next major resistance is around the 107.00 and 107.05 levels. A break and close above the 107.10 level is needed for buyers to gain traction.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Remains Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Remains Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The British Pound formed a short-term bottom near 145.00 and recovered against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 146.85 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Foreign exchange reserves for Feb 2018 were released by Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast of $1,260B as the reserves in Feb 2018 were $1,261.7B.

    Japan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Today in Japan, the Foreign exchange reserves for Feb 2018 were released by Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for the forex reserves to be around $1,260B in Feb 218.

     

    However, the actual result was around the market forecast of $1,260B as the reserves in Feb 2018 were $1,261.7B. This was a bit lower than the last reading of $1,268.5B. There was no major impact on the Yen pairs, but today’s Halifax House Price Index release in the UK may perhaps impact the GBP/JPY pair.

     

    The GBP/JPY pair recovered nicely recently above the 146.20 level and it seems like the pair may continue to trade higher.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after a major decline found support near the 145.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair traded as low as 144.98, started an upside move, and traded above the 145.50 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The upside move was positive as the pair was able to settle above the 146.00 handle. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 146.85 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY. The pair traded as high as 148.03 before starting a correction.

     

    The pair corrected lower and it recently tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 144.98 low to 148.03 high. At the moment, it seems like the 146.50 level is acting as a decent support along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 146.50-40 levels, it remains supported for more gains. On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 147.40 level, followed by the 148.00 handle.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro declined recently and traded below the 131.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 130.25 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for Feb 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the PMI from 54.0 to 54.1.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Today in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for Feb 2018 was released. The market was looking for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 54.0 in Feb 2018.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the PMI from 54.0 to 54.1. Moreover, the Capital Spending report for Q4 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance Japan. The market was looking for a rise of 3.1% in the Capital Spending, but the result was positive, as there was a rise of 4.3% in the Capital Spending in Q4 2017, which was also more than the last +4.2%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair may correct a few pips higher in the short term, but it is likely to face sellers on the upside near 130.25 and 130.50.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a new downside wave from well above the 131.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded lower and broke a couple of important support levels such as 131.20, 131.00 and 130.50.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair even traded below the 130.00 level and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 129.84 from where the pair started an upside correction. It is back above the 130.00 level, but there are many resistances on the upside.

     

    First, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 130.25 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The next resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 132.18 high to 129.84 low.

     

    There can be a minor upside correction in EUR/JPY in the near term, but the pair is likely to face hurdles near the 130.25 and 130.50 levels.

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