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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar failed to move above the 110.90 level and declined against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a short-term contracting triangle with support at 110.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of ¥-235.0B in May 2018, compared with the last surplus of ¥626.0B.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of ¥-235.0B as there was a trade deficit of ¥-578.3B. Imports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 14.0% compared with the forecast of +8.2%. Moreover, the Exports of goods and services in May 2018 increased 8.1% compared with the forecast of +7.5%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading near the 110.50 level and it seems like there is a risk of a downside move in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded towards the 111.00 level recently against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair almost tested the 110.00 level and formed a high near 110.90. Later, there was a downside reaction and the pair declined below the 110.80 and 110.60 levels.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the decline, there was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high. There was even a break below the 110.50 pivot level. However, the decline was protected by the 110.30 level.

     

    Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.91 low to 110.90 high also acted as a support. The pair is currently recovering, but it seems like upsides might be capped by the 110.60 and 110.70 resistance levels.

     

    If there is a failure to move past 110.70, there could be a downside reaction. Supports on the downside are around 110.30 and 110.10, followed by 110.00.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Dips Remain Supported Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is in an uptrend above the 109.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%.

     

    Japan’s Monetary Base

    Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for May 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of around 7.6% in the base compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of +7.6% as the Monetary Base rose 8.1%, which was also higher compared with the last reading of 7.8%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a positive zone and any dips towards the 109.50 level remains supported in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major upside move from the 108.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed higher above the 109.00 and 109.20 resistance levels, and also settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded close to the 109.80 level and a high was formed at 109.76. Later, a downside move and the pair corrected lower towards 106.00. There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 109.60 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high is positioned near the 109.51 level. Therefore if the pair breaks the trend line support, it could test 109.51.

     

    The chances of a downside break below 109.50 are very low. Should there be a break below 109.50, the pair could test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.72 low to 109.76 high at 109.24.

     

    On the upside, the 109.75 level is a short term resistance. Above this, the USD/JPY pair could break the 110.00 level in the near term.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar remained in a downtrend and broke the 109.40 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Jobs/application ratio for April 2018 was released by the Japan Institute of Labor.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 1.60 as the ratio was unchanged from 1.59.

     

    Japan’s Jobs/Application Ratio

    Recently in Japan, the Jobs/application ratio for April 2018 was released by the Japan Institute of Labor. The market was positioned for a rise in the ratio from the last reading of 1.59 to 1.60 in April 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of 1.60 as the ratio was unchanged from 1.59. The unemployment rate also remained at 2.5%, which was in line with the market forecast.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is clearly under pressure and it seems like it could extend the current decline below the 109.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a major downside move from the 110.00 handle against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair declined and broke a few key supports such as 109.60 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.40 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The pair traded below the 109.00 level and formed a new weekly low at 108.92.

     

    At the moment, the pair is consolidating losses and it recently tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 109.46 high to 108.92 low. It may correct a few more pips, but upsides are likely to be capped by the 109.20 and 109.30 levels.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 109.46 high to 108.92 low is at 109.19 to prevent upsides. Further above, there is a bearish trend line with resistance at 109.35, which may act as a strong hurdle for buyers. On the downside, the next major support sits at 108.50.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 128.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 128.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro remained in a downtrend and it recently traded close to the 127.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major expanding triangle forming with current resistance at 128.30 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the CSPI by 0.9% (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.6% in the index in April 2018, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the CSPI by 0.9%. This was also above the increase of 0.5%. Moreover, the Services Producer Price Index excluding International transportation climbed around 0.8% from the previous year.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is currently correcting higher, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break the 128.30 and 128.50 resistance levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined and remained in a major downtrend from the 131.40 resistance against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke a few important support levels such as 131.00, 130.00 and 129.00 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded close to the 127.00 level and a low was formed at 127.14. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 131.34 high to 127.14 low.

     

    The pair is currently testing a major expanding triangle with current resistance at 128.30 on the hourly chart. A break above the triangle resistance, followed by a break above 128.50 is needed for more gains in the near term.

     

    The next hurdle above 128.50 is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 131.34 high to 127.14 low at 129.24. On the downside, supports are at 127.80 and 127.50.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Correcting Lower Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Correcting Lower Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar started a downside correction after trading towards 111.40 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a declining channel in place with resistance at 111.00 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of ¥405.6B as the trade surplus was ¥626.0B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥405.6B in April 2018, compared with the last ¥797.3B.

     

    The actual result was above the market forecast of ¥405.6B as the trade surplus was ¥626.0B. Looking at the Imports of goods and services, there was an increase of 5.9%, less than the forecast of +9.6% (YoY). Exports of goods and services rose 7.8%, less than the market expectation of +8.1%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair seems to be correcting lower towards the 110.60 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar gained a lot of traction during the past few days and moved above the 110.00 and 110.50 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 111.00 level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 111.39 before starting a downside correction. It moved down and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.60 low to 111.39 high. There was even a close below the 111.00 support level.

     

    There is also a declining channel in place with resistance at 111.00 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The pair may continue to trade towards the 110.70 support, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.60 low to 111.39 high, and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    However, the most important support is near the last swing low of 110.60. Therefore, any further declines in USD/JPY are likely to find supports on the downside near 110.70 and 110.60.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Remains in Uptrend above 110.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Remains in Uptrend above 110.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar placed nicely in a bullish zone above the 110.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 110.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0% (QoQ) (Prelim) as there was a decline in the GDP by 0.2%.

     

    Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

    Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for no change in the GDP in Q1 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The result was below the market forecast of 0% (QoQ) (Prelim) as there was a decline in the GDP by 0.2%. In terms of the yearly change, Japan’s GDP declined by 0.6% (Prelim), which was below the forecast of 0%.

     

    The USD/JPY pair is trading with a positive bias above the 110.00 level and it may continue to move higher in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a support base near the 109.30 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 109.50 and 110.00 resistance levels. It even settled above 110.00 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 110.45 before it faced sellers. It started a downside correction and declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.81 low to 110.45 high. However, there are many supports on the downside above 110.00.

     

    There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 110.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.81 low to 110.45 high is currently acting as a support near 110.20.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is above 110.00, it remains in an uptrend. On the upside, an initial resistance is at 110.45, followed by the 110.80 level. On the downside, supports are at 110.20, 110.00 and 109.80.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro started a nice upside move and traded above the 130.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.1% in the index in April 2018, compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 2% in the index, which was same as the forecast, but less than the last +2.1%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is currently moving higher and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00 in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined below 130.00 this past week against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded as low as 129.20 before buyers appeared and protected more declines. The pair started an upside move and traded above the 129.50 and 130.00 resistance levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    It settled above the 130.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a minor downside correction once, but a key bullish trend line with current support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY prevented declines.

     

    The pair is now trading higher and is currently above the last swing high at 130.75. It means it may test the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low.

     

    The overall bias is very positive and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00. It could even test the 1.618 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low at 131.23. On the downside, supports are at 130.40 and the 100 hourly SMA.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Key Break Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Approaching Key Break Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is trading with a positive bias above the 109.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 109.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for April 2018 was published.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 53.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.3 to 53.8.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for April 2018 was published. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 53.3.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 53.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.3 to 53.8. More importantly, Output growth quickens to three-month high in April 2018. The report added:

     

    A twenty-first consecutive month of rising production in the Japanese manufacturing sector was recorded in April. The rate of growth in output was solid overall and the fastest since January.

     

    The USD/JPY pair remains in an uptrend and it seems like the pair is approaching a crucial upside break above 109.50 in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar started a decent upside move from the 107.60 swing low against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded higher and broke many hurdles such as 108.00 and 109.00 to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 109.54 before starting a downside correction. It declined below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.53 low to 109.54 high. However, the decline was protected by the 109.00 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 108.53 low to 109.54 high.

     

    It seems like the pair is forming a breakout pattern with resistance near 109.50 and support at 109.00. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 109.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

     

    The current price action suggests that the pair is likely to move above the 109.50 resistance to register further gains in the near term. The next hurdle on the upside is at 110.00.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Test 108.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar is moving higher and is currently placed nicely above 107.70 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3.

     

    Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in Japan, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April 2018 (Prelim) was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 53.1 to 52.6 in April 2018.

     

    The result was above the market forecast of 52.6 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.1 to 53.3. All three key areas – Output, new orders and employment increased at a faster rate. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, stated:

     

    Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions.

     

    The USD/JPY pair was not impacted much and it remains in a bullish zone towards the 108.00 level in the near term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar formed a decent support above 106.80 against the Japanese Yen, and started an upside move. The USD/JPY pair gained pace, broke many resistances such as 107.00 and 107.50, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair recently traded above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. More importantly, it is currently trading a few pips above the last swing high at 107.77.

     

    This means the pair may perhaps continue to move higher and it could test the 1.236 fib extension of the last drop from the 107.77 high to 106.88 low. It could even test the 108.00 resistance level in the near term.

     

    On the downside, there are many supports above 107.50. There is also a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 107.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, any dips toward 107.50 remains supported.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Gains Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is positioned nicely in a bullish trend above 132.20 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 132.20 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for March 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥498.3B as there was a trade surplus of ¥797.3B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for March 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was looking for a trade surplus of ¥498.3B in March 2018 compared with the last surplus of ¥3.4B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of ¥498.3B as there was a trade surplus of ¥797.3B. The last reading was revised down from ¥3.4B to ¥2.6B. Imports of goods and services in March 2018 declined by 0.6%, whereas the market was looking for a rise of 5.4%. Exports of goods and services in March 2018 rose by 2.1%, whereas the market was looking for a rise of 4.7%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is placed nicely above the 132.20-30 support area, and it looks set for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro followed a bullish path above the 132.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair recently declined and tested the 132.10 level where it found support. The pair recovered, and moved back in the bullish zone above 132.20 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 132.20 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. The trend line acted as a support, pushed the pair above a bearish trend line with resistance at 132.52 on the same chart.

     

    The pair traded as high as 132.80 recently and it seems like it may continue to rise towards the 133.00 and 133.20 resistance levels.

     

    If there is a downside correction, then the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 132.10 low to 132.80 high at 132.64 may act as a support. However, the most important supports are at 132.40 and 132.20.

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