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  • USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Broke Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Broke Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The US Dollar after trading close to the 111.00 handle found sellers and moved down against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.65 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Trade Balance figure for June 2017 was released by the Customs Office.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥549.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥518.6B.

     

    Japan’s Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Trade Balance figure for June 2017 was released by the Customs Office. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥549.0B, compared with the last deficit of ¥115.1B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of ¥549.0B, as the trade surplus was ¥518.6B. On the other hand, the Current Account was positive, as there was a trade surplus of ¥934.6B, more than the forecast of ¥814.0B, but less than the last ¥1,653.9B.

     

    Overall, the result was neutral, and there are chances of USD/JPY declining in the near term below the 110.50 support area.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar mostly traded with a positive bias and traded towards the 111.00 handle against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 111.04 recently from where a correction wave below the 111.00 level was initiated.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair moved down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.84 low to 111.04 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 110.65 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair also moved below a contracting triangle pattern with support at 110.70. The downside move found support near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.84 low to 111.04 high and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There is a chance of a minor upside move towards 110.75, but the pair is likely to face sellers in the near term. Selling rallies towards the 110.75 and 110.90 levels may be considered for a move towards the 110.40 support area.

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  • USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

    USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The US Dollar recently traded lower to test the 111.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
    • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B.

     

    Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was expecting a trade surplus of ¥439.8B compared with the last deficit of ¥203.4B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B, and the last reading was revised up from ¥203.4B to ¥204.2B. Imports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 15.5%, more than the forecast of 14.6%. Exports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 9.7%, more than the forecast of 9.5%.

     

    Overall, the USD/JPY pair has a chance to recover in the short term, but it faces resistances such as 112.30 and 112.80 on the upside.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar declined during the past few days and traded below the 112.80 and 112.30 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 112.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards 111.50.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

     

    The pair after trading as low as 111.54 started a recovery and broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart. It is currently attempting a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low.

     

    The pair faces a monster hurdle on the upside near 112.30. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned at 112.30.

     

    Above 112.30, the next hurdle is at 112.80, which was a support earlier and now a resistance. So, if the pair has to continue higher, it has to break 112.30 and 112.80 for sustained gains.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Faces Downside Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Faces Downside Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro remained under a bearish pressure vs the Japanese yen and traded below 120.50.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 120.65 formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – The Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance posted a trade deficit of ¥-1,086.9B in Jan 2017, more than the forecast of ¥-636.8B.

     

    Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

    Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance report for Jan 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was aligned for the balance amount between import and export to post a deficit of ¥-636.8B in Jan 2017, compared with the previous reading of ¥641.4B.

     

    The result was below the forecast, as the trade deficit was ¥-1,086.9B in Jan 2017. Exports increased by 1.3% in Jan 2017, which were lower than the forecast of 4.7%. Imports were more than the forecast, and registered a rise of 8.5%, vs the +4.7% forecast. Looking at the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, there was a trade surplus of ¥155.5B, less than the forecast of ¥356.7B.

     

    Overall, the result not as the market expected. It gives an edge to the Euro for a short-term upside move towards 120.50 vs the Japanese yen.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro was seen struggling near 121.50 against the Japanese yen, as it represents a major resistance area. It is a confluence zone formed with three things. First, a crucial bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of EUR/JPY. Second, the 100 simple moving average, and the last one is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 123.30 high to 119.33 low.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Yen

     

    So, it is a clear hurdle for EUR/JPY. As a result, the pair failed and moved down towards 119.70 before starting a recovery. The pair is once again correcting higher, but likely to face sellers near the same trend line at 120.65.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 121.25 high to 119.67 low is also around the same trend line resistance. So, if the pair continues to move higher, it could face sellers near 120.60 and 120.80.

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