EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Facing Major Challenge Near 125.0 Vs Yen

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Facing Major Challenge Near 125.0 Vs Yen

  • – The Euro recovered well from the 122.56 low against the Japanese Yen, and settled above 124.00.
  • – The EUR/JPY pair broke a major bearish trend line at 123.80 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2017 released by the Ministry of Finance posted a trade surplus of ¥481.7B, less than the forecast of ¥520.7B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

In Japan today, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥520.7B in April 2017, compared with the last ¥614.7B.

 

However, the result was below the forecast, as the Merchandise Trade surplus was ¥481.7B, less than the forecast of ¥520.7B. Imports of goods and services in April 2017 were 15.1%, compared with the forecast of 14.8%. Exports of goods and services in April 2017 were 7.5%, less than the forecast of 7.8%. Looking at the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, there was a surplus of ¥97.600B, less than the last ¥172.202B.

 

Overall, the EUR/JPY pair is correcting lower, but likely to find support near 124.00-124.10 in the near term.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro dropped towards 122.60 against the Japanese Yen, and traded as low as 122.56 where it found support. Later, the EUR/JPY pair started a recovery and moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 125.81 high to 122.56 low.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

During the upside, the pair broke a major bearish trend line at 123.80 on the hourly chart. Moreover, there was a break above the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 125.81 high to 122.56 low.

 

Clearly, the pair gained traction, but the upside found resistance near 124.90. The pair is currently correcting lower, and finding bids near the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, the 124.00 handle is a major support now. It should protect further losses towards 123.60. On the upside, a close above 125.00 is needed for the pair to gain momentum for a move towards 125.60-80 in the near term.

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