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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently struggling to recover above 1.1800 against the US Dollar, and remains at risk.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8% (YoY).

     

    German Retail Sales

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in sales by 3.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.4% in sales, whereas the market was positioned for a 0.5% rise. The report added:

     

    According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in August 2017 was in real terms 2.8% and in nominal terms 4.7% larger than that in August 2016. The number of days open for sale was 27 in August 2017 and in August 2016.

     

    The result was negative and most likely to impact the EUR/USD pair and could push it below the 1.1750 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2000-1.1980 swing area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1860 and 1.1800 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1717 before starting a short-term correction. The pair has recovered and moved above the 1.1750 level. However, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2004 high to 1.1717 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart. The trend line resistance is just below the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.1800 level.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1800 level and the 100 hourly SMA, it might decline once again below 1.1750.

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  • EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

    EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

    • – The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar from the 1.0400 low, and moved towards 1.0600.
    • – The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a major resistance near 1.0600 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart.
    • – In the Euro Zone today, the German Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted an increase of 3.2% in Nov 2016.

     

    German Retail Sales

    In the Euro Zone today, the Retail Sales figure, which is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland for Nov 2016.

     

    The market was expecting no major increase in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the result was positive, as there was a rise of 3.2%, which was a lot more than the last decline of -0.8% (revised). In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 2.5%, which was disappointing. The report added that the “estimation is based on data for the first eleven months of 2016. In this period retail turnover was in real terms 1.9% and in nominal terms 2.2% larger than that in the corresponding period of the previous year”.

     

    Overall, the result was not impressive enough to lift the Euro further against the US Dollar, as it continued to face sellers near 1.0620.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded positively recently against the US Dollar after forming a bottom near 1.0339. The EUR/USD pair moved higher, and broke the 100 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart for a move above 1.0500.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

     

    The pair is currently facing a major hurdle near 1.0600-20 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart. The trend lines are important, as a break above them may open the doors for an upside move towards 1.0700.

     

    I think there is a chance that the pair may correct towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0339 low to 1.0614 high where it may find support. Overall, the trend is positive for the Euro and any major dips from the current levels may find support near 1.0550 and 1.0520.

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  • EURUSD – Is It Right Time To Buy Euro?

    EURUSD – Is It Right Time To Buy Euro?

    • Euro recovered well recently against the US Dollar, and broke a major resistance area of 1.1060.
    • There is a descending channel pattern formed on the daily chart of EURUSD, which may act as a reason for the next move.
    • The German Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland today posted a decline of 0.1% in June 2016, compared with the forecast of no change.

     

    German Retail Sales

     

    Earlier during the European session, the German Retail Sales, which is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.

     

    The forecast was slated for no change in sales in June 2016, compared with the previous month. However, the result was disappointing, as the sales declined by 0.1% in June 2016.

     

    When we look at the yearly change, then the German Retail Sales grew 2.7%, which was a lot higher compared with the forecast of 1.2%. Moreover, the report added that “Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first six months 2016 in real terms 2.3% and in nominal terms 2.4% larger than in the corresponding period of the previous year.”

     

    Overall, the Euro gained traction after the release, but was seen struggling around a major resistance area of 1.1120.

    EURUSD Pair Analysis

     

    The EURUSD pair after tumbling towards the 1.0900 against the US Dollar found bids and recovered. However, the upside was contained by the 200-day simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Pair Analysis

     

    There is also a descending channel pattern formed on the daily chart of EUR/USD. The channel resistance area is positioned with the 200-day SMA, and both combined acting as a major barrier for further gains in EUR/USD.

     

    Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1426 high to 1.0917 low is also presenting offers to the bulls.

     

    No doubt, the last few daily candles are pretty bullish. So, if there is a break above the channel resistance, then one may consider a buy trade with a tight stop.

     

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