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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro likely made a short-term top near 1.1878 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1% (MoM).

     

    German CPI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in the CPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 1.8% in the CPI, and the actual was similar to the forecast and the last increase of 1.8%. The report added:

     

    Food prices in September 2017 rose 3.6% year on year, their increase being even larger than that of energy prices. In September 2017, above all edible fats and oils (+34.2%) were more expensive than a year earlier.

     

    The result was neutral, but might hold heavy losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1800 support in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro slowly and steadily moved higher and traded above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1840-1.1850 resistance before forming a short-term high at 1.1878.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently trading near another bullish trend line with support at 1.1840 on the same chart. If sellers succeed in breaking the second bullish trend line, there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high at 1.1817.

     

    Overall, the pair remains supported for more gains as long as there is no close below the 1.1800 support area.

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  • EUR/JPY – 114.00 is Significant Resistance for Euro

    EUR/JPY – 114.00 is Significant Resistance for Euro

    • The Euro managed to recover against the Japanese yen recently, but remain below a major resistance of 114.00.
    • There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/JPY, which may stop the upside move.
    • The German consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a rise of 0.3% in July 2016, just as the market expected.

     

    German CPI

    Earlier during the London session, the Germany consumer price index figure was reported by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was expecting the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes to increase by 0.3% in July 2016, compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual was as expected, as there was a rise of 0.3% in the CPI. In terms of the yearly change, the Germany consumer price index rose 0.4%, which was again in line with the market forecast.

     

    There were a few other releases as well in the Euro Zone, including German GDP and France Nonfarm Payrolls. All reports were positive, and helped the Euro to gain traction.

     

    The Euro is currently trading with a positive bias vs yen, but we need to keep a close watch as there are a couple of important resistance levels aligned on the upside.

     

    EUR/JPY Pair Analysis

    The EUR/JPY pair recently traded as low as 112.33 versus the Japanese yen where the Euro bulls appeared and defended the downside. The pair started recovering and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 116.91 high to 112.33 low.

     

    EUR/JPY Pair Analysis Euro

     

    No doubt, there are positive signs for the Euro at the moment. However, when I look at the 4-hours chart of the EUR/JPY pair, there is a monster bearish trend line. It can be seen as a resistance and act as a hurdle for more gains in EUR/JPY.

     

    As long as the pair is below the trend line, it may start a reversal. On the other hand, if the Euro bulls succeed in breaking it, then a move towards the 114.60 level is possible.

     

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