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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined sharply recently and moved below the 1.3150 support against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 52.7 to 51.5.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6. Looking at the Composite Output Index, there was a sharp decline from 52.4 to 51.4 in September 2017, which is a new a three-month low. The report added that:

     

    The slowdown was driven by weaker increases in output at both manufacturing and services companies. A drop in the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index from 52.7 to 50.6 in September pointed to only a marginal increase in services activity that was the slowest for 21 months.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is favoring the US Dollar and that’s why the GBP/USD pair recoveries are likely to be capped by the 1.3150-1.3200 resistance levels.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remained under a lot of bearish pressure and recently moved below the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3150 support, settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average and traded as low as 1.3026.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting higher and just moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could continue to correct higher and may test another bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at 1.3105. However, the most important resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low at 1.3150.

     

    Any major upsides could face sellers on the topside near 1.3150 and 1.3180. Selling rallies remain a good deal as long as there is no daily close above 1.3200.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher this week and traded as high as 1.3328 against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K.

     

    UK’s Claimant Count Change

    Recently in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.6K in the Claimant Count.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K. The ILO Unemployment Rate also posted a decline in July 2017 (3M) from 4.4% to 4.3%. The report added that:

     

    There were 1.46 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 75,000 fewer than for February to April 2017 and 175,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might correct a few pips towards 1.3250-40 in the near term, but remains supported on the downside.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound is in a major uptrend as it traded above the 1.3250 level this week against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3300 handle today and traded as high as 1.3328 before facing tiny sell offers.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Moreover, the pair broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could correct further towards 1.3250, which is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Furthermore, there is a bullish trend line on the same chart at 1.3255.

     

    Therefore, an extension of the current correction is likely to find support near 1.3250. Only a close below the 1.3240 level would call for a test of the 1.3200 support. On the upside, the pair faces an immediate resistance at 1.3310, followed by the last high at 1.3328.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound traded in a range below the 1.2915 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B.

     

    UK’s Net Borrowing

    Recently in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for the Net Borrowing to post £-0.200B, compared with the last £-6.218B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B. On the other hand, the last reading was revised from £-6.218B to £5.673B. When we exclude public sector banks, the Public sector net borrowing declined by £27.0 billion to £45.1 billion. The report added that:

    Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,758.3 billion at the end of July 2017, equivalent to 87.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £143.9 billion (or 4.5 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on July 2016.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might recover a few pips in the near term, but the 1.2900-1.2915 levels are likely to prevent gains.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound mostly trading in an expanded range with a monster resistance near 1.2915 against the US Dollar. Recently, the GBP/USD pair traded close to the 1.2915 level where it faced sellers and moved down below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded below the 1.2880 support and formed a low at 1.2841. There is a chance of a minor correction towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low.

     

    However, there is a connecting bearish trend line at 1.2900, which is likely to act as a major hurdle. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average at 1.2878 is also a major resistance.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2900-10 levels with a stop above a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 on the hourly chart.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined recently and moved below a key support of 1.2950 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6% (YoY).

     

    UK’s CPI

    Recently in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of 2.7% in the CPI compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6%. In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.1%, whereas the forecast was 0%. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index posted an increase of 3.2% in July 2017 compared with the same month a year ago, which was more than the forecast of +3.1%. The report added that:

    Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.2% on the year to July 2017, from 3.3% in June 2017, which is a 0.5 percentage points decline from their recent peak of 3.7% in February and March 2017.

     

    Overall, the result was negative and could add further bearish pressure on GBP/USD, resulting in declines towards 1.2900.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound consolidated for a long time above the 1.2970 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair failed to hold the 1.2970-50 support area and declined sharply below the 1.2950 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2910 and currently attempting a recovery. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

     

    An initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low. However, the broken support near 1.2950 is a major resistance since it is also the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2950-70 level for a test of the 1.2900 handle.

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  • GBPUSD – Brexit Final, What’s Next For Pound?

    GBPUSD – Brexit Final, What’s Next For Pound?

    • British Pound dropped like a stone against the US Dollar today due to the outcome of the UK referendum in which the UK voted to leave the EU.
    • Is it the beginning of the end for the EU Zone? Many say other members will follow the same path soon.
    • The GBP/USD collapsed and traded down by more the 1600 pips earlier during the Asian and European session.

    Brexit

    Today, the UK voted to leave the European Union, and Brexit is now a done deal. There were a lot of moves noted in the European currencies, and mostly suffered heavy losses.

     

    The Euro and the British Pound collapsed, and were seen dropping like a stone. Later, during the NY session today, the Durable Goods Orders figure was published by the US Census Bureau. The forecast was slated for the orders received by manufacturers for durable goods to decrease by 0.5%.

     

    However, the result was horrible, as there was a decline of 2.2% in May 2016, compared with the last increase of 3.3%. The report stated that the “New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $5.3 billion or 2.2 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 3.3 percent April increase”.

     

    The US dollar was not affected much, as there was already a lot of impact due to Brexit.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis

    The GBP/USD pair was down by around 2000 pips during the past 24 hours, as it moved down from the 1.5000 high to 1.3220 low.

    During the downside move, the pair broke a lot of important support areas, including 1.4000 and 1.3800, and created a new low not seen in the past 25 years.

     

    GBP/USD Price Analysis

    The pair is currently recovering and trading near the 1.3700 levels. However, the current wave can be considered as a part of a correction, and once it completes the pair might head lower.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is strongly bearish for GBP/USD, which can take it further down.

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