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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound started a downside move after trading as high as 1.3540 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for a decline in the index from the last reading of 60.1 to 59.0 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4. Moreover, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was down by 0.8% to 61.4% from the October reading of 62.2%. The report added that:

     

    The New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.8 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in November to 55.3 percent from the October reading of 57.5 percent.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, but failed to help GBP/USD, and the pair might continue to decline towards 1.3350 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound had a good bullish run above the 1.3400 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair popped higher and broke a few important resistance levels such as 1.3480, 1.3500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3548 and later a downside correction was initiated. It is slowly moving lower and already broke the 1.3500 and 1.3480 support levels. It also cleared the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.3450 pivot area.

     

    It seems like the pair is following a major expanding triangle with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart. An initial resistance on the upside is around the 1.3475 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It also coincides with the 61.8 % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3538 high to 1.3370 low.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure in the short term and it could even break the 1.3400 handle.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is back in the bullish zone above the 1.3330 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017.

     

    British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.1% in the index in Nov 2017, similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017. Commenting on the same, the Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson OBE, stated:

     

    For the third consecutive month shop price inflation remained static, still teetering on the edge of a return to inflationary territory. November now marks the 55th consecutive month of deflation with the current rate the shallowest in the last four years.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may continue to move higher and it could even break 1.3400 for more gains in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made good ground recently and settled above 1.3300 and 1.3330 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined sharply recently and traded close to the 1.3220 support where buyers appeared and pushed the pair back above 1.3300 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3385 and is currently consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345. Below 1.3345, the next major support is around 1.3330.

     

    Further to the downside, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345 is at 1.3322 along with the 100 hourly simple moving average to act as a buy zone.

     

    On the upside, there is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart. A break above the 1.3390-1.3400 would open the doors for more gains in the short term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is slowly moving higher from the 1.3070 swing low against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $34.6B compared with the last $67.2B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B. The last reading was also revised up from $67.2B to $73.2B. Moreover, the total Net TIC Flows posted a rise from the last revised reading of $130.2B to $51.3B. The report added that:

     

    The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $51.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private outflows were $17.3 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $34.0 billion.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may find it very difficult to move above the 1.3200 resistance in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after a major decline found support near 1.3070 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 1.3100 handle and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is above 1.3150, but facing a monster bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart. The same trend line prevented gains on many occasions and now stopping a break above 1.3200. The pair is currently correcting lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high.

     

    On the downside, there is a connecting trend line support at 1.3150 along with the 100 hourly SMA. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high at 1.3160.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.3150 support and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be an attempt to move above 1.3200 in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound after forming a bottom at 1.3060-80 against the US Dollar moved higher.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PM for Oct 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0.

     

    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 51.0 in Oct 2017.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0. There was not much rise in the output, but the new orders growth was steady. The report added that:

     

    While new orders rose at a slightly quicker pace, production increased at the softest rate for four months. At the same time, companies continued to shed staff amid reports of company-downsizing policies and efforts to raise efficiency.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is positive and likely to keep GBP/USD above the 1.5250 support area in the short term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after tumbling towards the 1.3050 support against the US Dollar found support. The GBP/USD pair started an upside move from the 1.3080 swing low and moved above the 1.3100 handle. It also broke the 1.3180 resistance and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    It seems like the pair is following a crucial ascending channel with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart. The pair recently traded as high as 1.3291 before starting a short term correction. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    The downsides seem to be limited by the 1.3270 support and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    Overall, the pair remains in an uptrend as long as above 1.3250. It could soon move above the 1.3290 level to break the 1.3300 sell wall in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined sharply recently and moved below the 1.3150 support against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 52.7 to 51.5.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6. Looking at the Composite Output Index, there was a sharp decline from 52.4 to 51.4 in September 2017, which is a new a three-month low. The report added that:

     

    The slowdown was driven by weaker increases in output at both manufacturing and services companies. A drop in the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index from 52.7 to 50.6 in September pointed to only a marginal increase in services activity that was the slowest for 21 months.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is favoring the US Dollar and that’s why the GBP/USD pair recoveries are likely to be capped by the 1.3150-1.3200 resistance levels.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remained under a lot of bearish pressure and recently moved below the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3150 support, settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average and traded as low as 1.3026.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting higher and just moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could continue to correct higher and may test another bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at 1.3105. However, the most important resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low at 1.3150.

     

    Any major upsides could face sellers on the topside near 1.3150 and 1.3180. Selling rallies remain a good deal as long as there is no daily close above 1.3200.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher this week and traded as high as 1.3328 against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K.

     

    UK’s Claimant Count Change

    Recently in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.6K in the Claimant Count.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K. The ILO Unemployment Rate also posted a decline in July 2017 (3M) from 4.4% to 4.3%. The report added that:

     

    There were 1.46 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 75,000 fewer than for February to April 2017 and 175,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might correct a few pips towards 1.3250-40 in the near term, but remains supported on the downside.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound is in a major uptrend as it traded above the 1.3250 level this week against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3300 handle today and traded as high as 1.3328 before facing tiny sell offers.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Moreover, the pair broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could correct further towards 1.3250, which is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Furthermore, there is a bullish trend line on the same chart at 1.3255.

     

    Therefore, an extension of the current correction is likely to find support near 1.3250. Only a close below the 1.3240 level would call for a test of the 1.3200 support. On the upside, the pair faces an immediate resistance at 1.3310, followed by the last high at 1.3328.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound traded in a range below the 1.2915 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B.

     

    UK’s Net Borrowing

    Recently in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for the Net Borrowing to post £-0.200B, compared with the last £-6.218B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B. On the other hand, the last reading was revised from £-6.218B to £5.673B. When we exclude public sector banks, the Public sector net borrowing declined by £27.0 billion to £45.1 billion. The report added that:

    Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,758.3 billion at the end of July 2017, equivalent to 87.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £143.9 billion (or 4.5 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on July 2016.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might recover a few pips in the near term, but the 1.2900-1.2915 levels are likely to prevent gains.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound mostly trading in an expanded range with a monster resistance near 1.2915 against the US Dollar. Recently, the GBP/USD pair traded close to the 1.2915 level where it faced sellers and moved down below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded below the 1.2880 support and formed a low at 1.2841. There is a chance of a minor correction towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low.

     

    However, there is a connecting bearish trend line at 1.2900, which is likely to act as a major hurdle. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average at 1.2878 is also a major resistance.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2900-10 levels with a stop above a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 on the hourly chart.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined recently and moved below a key support of 1.2950 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6% (YoY).

     

    UK’s CPI

    Recently in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of 2.7% in the CPI compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6%. In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.1%, whereas the forecast was 0%. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index posted an increase of 3.2% in July 2017 compared with the same month a year ago, which was more than the forecast of +3.1%. The report added that:

    Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.2% on the year to July 2017, from 3.3% in June 2017, which is a 0.5 percentage points decline from their recent peak of 3.7% in February and March 2017.

     

    Overall, the result was negative and could add further bearish pressure on GBP/USD, resulting in declines towards 1.2900.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound consolidated for a long time above the 1.2970 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair failed to hold the 1.2970-50 support area and declined sharply below the 1.2950 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2910 and currently attempting a recovery. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

     

    An initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low. However, the broken support near 1.2950 is a major resistance since it is also the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2950-70 level for a test of the 1.2900 handle.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher and moved above the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a monster bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 was released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of from the last revised reading of 54.2 to 55.1.

     

    UK’s Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the UK, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 was released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a no change in the PMI from the last reading of 54.3.

     

    However, the actual result was positive, as there was an increase to 55.1. The last reading was revised down from 54.3 to 54.2. There was a strong performance, which boosted the new orders in July 2017. The report added that:

    The rate of expansion in new orders accelerated during July. However, the improvement in the pace of increase was still among the slowest registered over the past year. This was despite a significant boost from the trend in new export business, as foreign demand rose at the second-strongest rate in the series history, beaten only by that recorded in April 2010.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which may continue to help the GBP/USD pair for more gains towards 1.3250 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remains in a solid uptrend and moved above the 1.3150 and 1.3200 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded to a new monthly high of 1.3239 recently where sellers protected more gains.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is following an ascending channel pattern with support at 1.3210 on the hourly chart. The channel support is also near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3096 low to 1.3239 high.

     

    Moreover, on the downside, there is a monster bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3096 low to 1.3239 high is also around 1.3165.

     

    So, if the pair corrects lower, the channel support at 1.3210 and then the 1.3180-65 area may act as a strong support levels.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

    GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

    • – The British Pound is moving lower and positioned below the 1.2940-20 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published.
    • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales (YoY).

     

    UK’s Consumer Credit

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.5% in the sales in June 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales. It was a lot more compared with the last decline of 0.4%. When we consider the total basis, there was an increase of 0.2% in the sales, which was same as in June 2016. The report added that:

    Over the three months to June, food sales increased 3.6 per cent on a like-for-like basis and 4.7 per cent on a total basis. This is the strongest 3-month average since February 2012, and pulls the 12-month total average growth to 2.5 per cent, the highest since December 2013.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which may push the GBP/USD pair higher, but it is likely to remain capped by 1.2920-40.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a downside move from well above 1.3000 and traded below 1.2980 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and moved below the 1.2950, 1.2940 and 1.2920 support level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2854 recently and currently consolidating. Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is following a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900. At the moment, buyers are attempting a close above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

     

    Above the channel resistance, the 100 hourly simple moving average is a major hurdle at 1.2918. It also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

     

    There is also a bearish trend line on the upside at 1.2940, waiting to act as a barrier if the pair jumps higher in the near term. Overall, there can be corrections in GBP/USD, but upsides could be limited by 1.2920-40.

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