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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined sharply recently and moved below the 1.3150 support against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 52.7 to 51.5.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6. Looking at the Composite Output Index, there was a sharp decline from 52.4 to 51.4 in September 2017, which is a new a three-month low. The report added that:

     

    The slowdown was driven by weaker increases in output at both manufacturing and services companies. A drop in the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index from 52.7 to 50.6 in September pointed to only a marginal increase in services activity that was the slowest for 21 months.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is favoring the US Dollar and that’s why the GBP/USD pair recoveries are likely to be capped by the 1.3150-1.3200 resistance levels.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remained under a lot of bearish pressure and recently moved below the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3150 support, settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average and traded as low as 1.3026.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting higher and just moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could continue to correct higher and may test another bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at 1.3105. However, the most important resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low at 1.3150.

     

    Any major upsides could face sellers on the topside near 1.3150 and 1.3180. Selling rallies remain a good deal as long as there is no daily close above 1.3200.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher this week and traded as high as 1.3328 against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K.

     

    UK’s Claimant Count Change

    Recently in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.6K in the Claimant Count.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K. The ILO Unemployment Rate also posted a decline in July 2017 (3M) from 4.4% to 4.3%. The report added that:

     

    There were 1.46 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 75,000 fewer than for February to April 2017 and 175,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might correct a few pips towards 1.3250-40 in the near term, but remains supported on the downside.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound is in a major uptrend as it traded above the 1.3250 level this week against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3300 handle today and traded as high as 1.3328 before facing tiny sell offers.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Moreover, the pair broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could correct further towards 1.3250, which is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Furthermore, there is a bullish trend line on the same chart at 1.3255.

     

    Therefore, an extension of the current correction is likely to find support near 1.3250. Only a close below the 1.3240 level would call for a test of the 1.3200 support. On the upside, the pair faces an immediate resistance at 1.3310, followed by the last high at 1.3328.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Bearish Within Range Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound traded in a range below the 1.2915 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B.

     

    UK’s Net Borrowing

    Recently in the UK, the Net Borrowing report for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for the Net Borrowing to post £-0.200B, compared with the last £-6.218B.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of £-0.200B, as the Net Borrowing came in at £-0.760B. On the other hand, the last reading was revised from £-6.218B to £5.673B. When we exclude public sector banks, the Public sector net borrowing declined by £27.0 billion to £45.1 billion. The report added that:

    Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,758.3 billion at the end of July 2017, equivalent to 87.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £143.9 billion (or 4.5 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on July 2016.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might recover a few pips in the near term, but the 1.2900-1.2915 levels are likely to prevent gains.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound mostly trading in an expanded range with a monster resistance near 1.2915 against the US Dollar. Recently, the GBP/USD pair traded close to the 1.2915 level where it faced sellers and moved down below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded below the 1.2880 support and formed a low at 1.2841. There is a chance of a minor correction towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low.

     

    However, there is a connecting bearish trend line at 1.2900, which is likely to act as a major hurdle. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2916 high to 1.2841 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average at 1.2878 is also a major resistance.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2900-10 levels with a stop above a crucial expanding triangle pattern with resistance near 1.2915 on the hourly chart.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined recently and moved below a key support of 1.2950 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6% (YoY).

     

    UK’s CPI

    Recently in the UK, the Consumer Price Index for July 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of 2.7% in the CPI compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of +2.7%, as there was an increase of 2.6%. In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.1%, whereas the forecast was 0%. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index posted an increase of 3.2% in July 2017 compared with the same month a year ago, which was more than the forecast of +3.1%. The report added that:

    Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.2% on the year to July 2017, from 3.3% in June 2017, which is a 0.5 percentage points decline from their recent peak of 3.7% in February and March 2017.

     

    Overall, the result was negative and could add further bearish pressure on GBP/USD, resulting in declines towards 1.2900.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound consolidated for a long time above the 1.2970 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair failed to hold the 1.2970-50 support area and declined sharply below the 1.2950 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2910 and currently attempting a recovery. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2950 and 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

     

    An initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low. However, the broken support near 1.2950 is a major resistance since it is also the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3030 high to 1.2910 low.

     

    Overall, selling rallies in the near term towards the 1.2950-70 level for a test of the 1.2900 handle.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher and moved above the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a monster bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 was released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of from the last revised reading of 54.2 to 55.1.

     

    UK’s Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the UK, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 was released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a no change in the PMI from the last reading of 54.3.

     

    However, the actual result was positive, as there was an increase to 55.1. The last reading was revised down from 54.3 to 54.2. There was a strong performance, which boosted the new orders in July 2017. The report added that:

    The rate of expansion in new orders accelerated during July. However, the improvement in the pace of increase was still among the slowest registered over the past year. This was despite a significant boost from the trend in new export business, as foreign demand rose at the second-strongest rate in the series history, beaten only by that recorded in April 2010.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which may continue to help the GBP/USD pair for more gains towards 1.3250 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remains in a solid uptrend and moved above the 1.3150 and 1.3200 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded to a new monthly high of 1.3239 recently where sellers protected more gains.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is following an ascending channel pattern with support at 1.3210 on the hourly chart. The channel support is also near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3096 low to 1.3239 high.

     

    Moreover, on the downside, there is a monster bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3096 low to 1.3239 high is also around 1.3165.

     

    So, if the pair corrects lower, the channel support at 1.3210 and then the 1.3180-65 area may act as a strong support levels.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

    GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

    • – The British Pound is moving lower and positioned below the 1.2940-20 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published.
    • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales (YoY).

     

    UK’s Consumer Credit

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.5% in the sales in June 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales. It was a lot more compared with the last decline of 0.4%. When we consider the total basis, there was an increase of 0.2% in the sales, which was same as in June 2016. The report added that:

    Over the three months to June, food sales increased 3.6 per cent on a like-for-like basis and 4.7 per cent on a total basis. This is the strongest 3-month average since February 2012, and pulls the 12-month total average growth to 2.5 per cent, the highest since December 2013.

     

    Overall, the result was positive, which may push the GBP/USD pair higher, but it is likely to remain capped by 1.2920-40.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a downside move from well above 1.3000 and traded below 1.2980 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and moved below the 1.2950, 1.2940 and 1.2920 support level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2854 recently and currently consolidating. Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is following a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900. At the moment, buyers are attempting a close above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

     

    Above the channel resistance, the 100 hourly simple moving average is a major hurdle at 1.2918. It also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

     

    There is also a bearish trend line on the upside at 1.2940, waiting to act as a barrier if the pair jumps higher in the near term. Overall, there can be corrections in GBP/USD, but upsides could be limited by 1.2920-40.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Buy on Dips Near 1.2930

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Buy on Dips Near 1.2930

    • The British Pound remained in an uptrend against the US Dollar and moved above 1.2900 handle.
    • There is a crucial bullish trend line with support at 1.2930 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • Today in the UK, the Consumer Credit for May 2017 was released by the Bank of England.
    • The outcome was positive, as the Credit came in at £1.732B, more than the forecast of £1.400B.

     

    UK’s Consumer Credit

    Recently in the UK, the Consumer Credit for May 2017 was released by the Bank of England. The market was positioned for the credit to be £1.400B in May 2017, compared with the last £1.525B.

     

    However, the actual result was positive, as the Credit came in at £1.732B, more than the forecast of £1.400B. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down from £1.525B to £1.483B. The report added that “Broad money increased by £8.1 billion in May.  While the 12-month growth rate for broad money overall has been at around the current level since November 2016, the growth in households’ money has continued to weaken and private non-financial corporations’ (PNFCs’) has strengthened”.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, and if GBP/USD trades lower in the near term, it may find support around the 1.2930-20 levels.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound maintained a decent uptrend and moved above 1.2850 and 1.2900 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.3007 where it faced sellers and currently correcting lower below the 1.2980 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is trading well with an initial support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2793 low to 1.3007 high. However, the most important support is near 1.2930. There is a crucial bullish trend line with support at 1.2930 forming on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2793 low to 1.3007 high.

     

    So, if the pair moves down, buyers are likely to emerge near 1.2930-20. Buying dips remains a good option in the near term. Only a break and close below 1.2900 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2793 low to 1.3007 high might call for more corrections.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Range Moves Head of Break in Pound to Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – Range Moves Head of Break in Pound to Dollar

    • – The British Pound after a decline towards 1.2650 found support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a contracting triangle pattern with resistance at 1.2800 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Today in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for June 2017 was released, which posted a decline of 0.4% (MoM).

     

    UK’s Rightmove House Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for June 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a minor decline of 0.1% in the HPI compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was on the lower side, as the decline was 0.4% (MoM). Looking at the yearly change, the forecast was an increase of 2% in June 2017 compared with June 2016. The actual was on the lower side, as the increase was +1.8% only.

     

    Overall, the result was below the forecast, but there was no negative impact on the GBP/USD pair, as it remained above the 1.2750 support.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound was under pressure this past week, as it remained below the 1.2800 resistance against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair was seen trading towards 1.2650 where it found buyers and started an upside move.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair corrected well, and moved above the 1.2700 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as high as 1.2804 where it faced a trend line resistance. It moved down and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2691 low to 1.2804 high.

     

    On the downside, the 100 hourly simple moving average is a major support at 1.2750. It also coincide with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2691 low to 1.2804 high. It seems like there is a contracting triangle pattern with resistance at 1.2800 forming on the hourly chart. The pair may consolidate for some time inside the triangle with support at 1.2750 and 1.2735. Once it succeeds in a break and close above 1.2800, there can be more upsides towards the 1.2850 in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Steady Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound In Steady Uptrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound managed to stay above the 1.2930 support area against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major ascending channel pattern with support at 1.2910 formed on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance survey for May 2017 released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors posted an increase of 17%.

     

    RICS Housing Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance survey for May 2017 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for an increase of 20% in May 2017, compared with the previous rise of 22%.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast, the increase was 17% in May 2017. The impact of the release was not negative for the British Pound and GB/USD. The report stated that “Demand slips and new instructions from sellers decline further in May. Agreed sales continue to drop. National price growth eases and expectations remain subdued”.

     

    It looks like the GBP/USD pair is likely to head higher in the near term as long as it remains above the 1.2900 handle.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound suffered losses towards 1.2760 against the US Dollar before finding support and recovering above the 1.2850 level. The GBP/USD pair moved higher and traded above the 1.2900 handle to register a steady uptrend.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At present the pair is following a major ascending channel pattern with support at 1.2910 on the hourly chart. On the downside, the 100 hourly simple moving average is also near 1.2900. So, overall the trend is bullish and losses near 1.2920-00 remains supported. An immediate support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2871 low to 1.2968 high.

     

    The next major support on the downside is at 1.2920, which coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2871 low to 1.2968 high. As long as the pair is following the highlighted channel support, there are chances of more gains above 1.2950. The pair could even break 1.3000 if buyers remain in action. Above 1.3000, the next hurdle is around the 1.3050 level.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Soars Post UK’s Retail Sales

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Soars Post UK’s Retail Sales

    • – The British Pound gained momentum today, and moved above the 1.30 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair broke a major connecting resistance trend line at 1.3000 to open the doors for more upsides.
    • – Today in the UK, the Retail Sales Change for April 2017 (MoM) released by the National Statistics posted an increase of 2.3%.

     

    UK Retail Sales

    In the UK today, the Retail Sales Change for April 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for the Retail Sales to increase by 1% in April 2017, compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the result was well above the forecast, as the UK’s Retail Sales increased 2.3%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 4% in April 2017, more than the forecast of 2%. The report highlighted that “In April 2017, the quantity bought in the retail industry increased by 2.3% compared with March 2017 and by 4.0% compared with April 2016. The underlying pattern, as measured by the 3 month on 3 month estimate, showed a slight increase in April 2017 following a short period of contraction, increasing by 0.3%”.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may continue to gain momentum and could trade towards 1.3080 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound was slowly moving higher and after the release of the UK Retail Sales of April 2017, there was an increase in the momentum and it broke the 1.30 resistance against the US Dollar. The GBPUSD traded as high as 1.3044 where there was a minor selling pressure.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, the pair broke a major connecting resistance trend line at 1.3000 on the hourly chart. If the pair corrects lower, it may find support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2936 low to 1.3044 high.

     

    However, the same broken trend line and 1.3000 handle may act as a strong support on the downside. And, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2936 low to 1.3044 high is at 1.3003. So, we have many support levels near 1.30, waiting to act as a barrier for sellers if the pair moves down in the near term.

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