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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound started a downside correction after trading as high as 1.4146 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018.

     

    UK Rightmove House Price

    Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% in the index in Feb 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018, which was similar to the last reading. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.5% in the index in Feb 2018, more than the last 1.1%. The report added:

     

    Average price of property coming to market is up 0.7% (+£2,067) this month on Rightmove, tracking over 90% of the UK property market, similar to the 0.6% rise at this time a year ago with virtually identical number of properties coming to market.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently holding the 1.4000 support, but it remains at a risk of a downside push in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made a nice upside move this past week and traded above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.4146 before it started a downside correction and traded below 1.4100.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair declined and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high. Moreover, there was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart.

     

    However, the downside move was protected by the 1.4000 support. The pair is currently trading above the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Below 1.4000, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high at 1.3973 is a nice support.

     

    Overall, the price action is positive as long as the pair is above 1.3970-1.4000. A break below 1.3970 could ignite more losses in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is under pressure and it recently broke the 1.4000 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018.

     

    UK RICS Housing Price Balance

    Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for a rise of 5% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the last reading of 8%.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018. This was similar to the last reading of 8%. The report added:

     

    In January, new buyer enquiries, instructions and sales all continued to drift lower, while the three month expectations for agreed sales points to a flat picture in the coming months.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure and it must stay above the 1.3850 support to avoid further declines.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a downside move from the 1.4280 swing high against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and steadily to move below the 1.4200 and 1.4100 support levels. More importantly, it traded below the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.3850 and is currently consolidating losses. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

     

    However, on the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. The pair struggle to break the 1.3900 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

     

    On the downside, the 1.3850 support holds a lot of importance, and the pair must stay above 1.3850 to avoid further declines. On the upside, a break and close above 1.3900 could decrease the bearish pressure.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Remain above 1.4080 Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Remain above 1.4080 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound made a nice upside move recently and it traded above 1.4300 against the US Dollar before starting a correction.
    • – There is a short term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.4175 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q4 2017 (prelim) was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.4% as the GDP grew by 0.5% (QoQ).

     

    UK Gross Domestic Product

    Recently in the UK, the Gross Domestic Product report for Q4 2017 (prelim) was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a growth of 0.4% in Q4 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 0.4% as the GDP grew by 0.5% (QoQ). In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 1.5% in the GDP, which was more than the forecast of 1.4%, but it was less than the last 1.7%.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is moving nicely in an uptrend with a major support on the downside around the 1.4080 level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound traded sharply higher this past week and traded above the 1.4300 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.4280 and 1.4300 resistances to trade as high as 1.4345.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    Later, a downside move was initiated, but the pair found support near 1.4080. At the moment, the pair is moving inside a range above the 1.4080 level and is currently showing a lot of positive signs. The recent low was 1.4108 and the pair is trading near the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair is currently attempting an upside break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.4286 high to 1.4108 low. On the upside, there is a short term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.4175 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line resistance is important along with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.4286 high to 1.4108 low. A break and close above 1.4175-1.4180 could ignite a fresh upside wave in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold Gains Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold Gains Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound traded higher this past week and moved above 1.3800 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a short term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3840 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the Retail Sales report for Dec 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.6% as there was a decline in sales by 1.5% (MoM).

     

    UK Retail Sales

    Recently in the UK, the Retail Sales report for Dec 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of around 0.6% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -0.6% as there was a decline in sales by 1.5%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 1.4% in sales, which was less than the forecast of 3.0%. However, it was around the last revised reading of 1.5%.

     

    The GBP/USD pair is currently correcting lower, but it has to stay above the 1.3840 level to remain in the bullish zone.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made a decent upside move and traded above 1.3800 and 1.3900 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.3944 before it started a downside correction from the mentioned level.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair corrected lower and is currently trading below the 1.3900 level. It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3536 low to 1.3944 high. On the downside, there is a short term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3840 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support at 1.3840 is also around the 100 hourly simple moving average. Therefore, the 1.3830-40 levels hold a lot of importance for the next move. A break below 1.3830 and the 100 hourly SMA could call for a test of the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3536 low to 1.3944 high at 1.3740.

     

    On the upside, an initial resistance is at 1.3900. Above 1.3900, the pair may test the 1.3944 high.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyes 1.3600 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyes 1.3600 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is moving higher and it may soon test the 1.3600 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3550 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Dec 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.5% as there was a decline in the index by 0.6% (YoY).

     

    British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Dec 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline of around 0.5% in Dec 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -0.5% as there was a decline in the index by 0.6%. It was also way below the last decline of 0.1%. Commenting on the report, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium, stated:

     

    After several months of shop prices teetering on the edge of inflation, December saw them retreat deeper into deflationary territory. Prices in December fell at the fastest rate since March this year when only last month we saw the shallowest rate of deflation for four years.

     

    However, there was no negative impact on the GBP/USD pair and it seems like the pair might continue to move higher towards 1.3600.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a decent upside move from the 1.3480 swing low against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair made good ground and was able to trade above the 1.3550 resistance, and also closed above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is now above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3612 high to 1.3494 low. It is following a crucial bullish trend line with support at 1.3550 on the hourly chart. The same trend line around 1.3550 is close to the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    At the moment, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3612 high to 1.3494 low. A break and close above the 1.3560-70 levels could open the doors for a move towards 1.3600.

     

    On the downside, the 1.3550 and 1.3540 are major supports and buy zones in the short term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Looks Set to Break 1.3500 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Looks Set to Break 1.3500 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is gaining upside momentum above the 1.3400 handle against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above two important bearish trend lines at 1.3350 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the Consumer Price Index for Nov 2017 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.4% (MoM) in Nov 2017.

     

    US CPI and Fed Rate Decision

    Recently in the US, the Consumer Price Index for Nov 2017 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.4% in the index in Nov 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.4% (MoM) in Nov 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 2.2%, which was again in line with the forecast.

     

    In another release, the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates from 1.25% to 1.50%. The market turned green and most pairs made an upside move including GBP/USD.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound formed a good support near the 1.3300-1.3305 levels against the US Dollar, and started an upside move. The GBP/USD pair made good ground and was able to move above the 1.3400 handle and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, the pair was able to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3519 high to 1.3302 low. Moreover, there was a break above two important bearish trend lines at 1.3350 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is now placed well in the bullish zone and is eyeing further gains above 1.3450. At the moment, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3519 high to 1.3302 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    Once there is a break above the 1.3450 level, there can be an upside move towards the 1.3500 level in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound started a downside move after trading as high as 1.3540 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for a decline in the index from the last reading of 60.1 to 59.0 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4. Moreover, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was down by 0.8% to 61.4% from the October reading of 62.2%. The report added that:

     

    The New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.8 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in November to 55.3 percent from the October reading of 57.5 percent.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, but failed to help GBP/USD, and the pair might continue to decline towards 1.3350 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound had a good bullish run above the 1.3400 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair popped higher and broke a few important resistance levels such as 1.3480, 1.3500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3548 and later a downside correction was initiated. It is slowly moving lower and already broke the 1.3500 and 1.3480 support levels. It also cleared the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.3450 pivot area.

     

    It seems like the pair is following a major expanding triangle with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart. An initial resistance on the upside is around the 1.3475 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It also coincides with the 61.8 % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3538 high to 1.3370 low.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure in the short term and it could even break the 1.3400 handle.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is back in the bullish zone above the 1.3330 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017.

     

    British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.1% in the index in Nov 2017, similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017. Commenting on the same, the Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson OBE, stated:

     

    For the third consecutive month shop price inflation remained static, still teetering on the edge of a return to inflationary territory. November now marks the 55th consecutive month of deflation with the current rate the shallowest in the last four years.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may continue to move higher and it could even break 1.3400 for more gains in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made good ground recently and settled above 1.3300 and 1.3330 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined sharply recently and traded close to the 1.3220 support where buyers appeared and pushed the pair back above 1.3300 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3385 and is currently consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345. Below 1.3345, the next major support is around 1.3330.

     

    Further to the downside, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345 is at 1.3322 along with the 100 hourly simple moving average to act as a buy zone.

     

    On the upside, there is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart. A break above the 1.3390-1.3400 would open the doors for more gains in the short term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is slowly moving higher from the 1.3070 swing low against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $34.6B compared with the last $67.2B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B. The last reading was also revised up from $67.2B to $73.2B. Moreover, the total Net TIC Flows posted a rise from the last revised reading of $130.2B to $51.3B. The report added that:

     

    The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $51.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private outflows were $17.3 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $34.0 billion.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may find it very difficult to move above the 1.3200 resistance in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after a major decline found support near 1.3070 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 1.3100 handle and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is above 1.3150, but facing a monster bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart. The same trend line prevented gains on many occasions and now stopping a break above 1.3200. The pair is currently correcting lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high.

     

    On the downside, there is a connecting trend line support at 1.3150 along with the 100 hourly SMA. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high at 1.3160.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.3150 support and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be an attempt to move above 1.3200 in the near term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound after forming a bottom at 1.3060-80 against the US Dollar moved higher.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PM for Oct 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0.

     

    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 51.0 in Oct 2017.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0. There was not much rise in the output, but the new orders growth was steady. The report added that:

     

    While new orders rose at a slightly quicker pace, production increased at the softest rate for four months. At the same time, companies continued to shed staff amid reports of company-downsizing policies and efforts to raise efficiency.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is positive and likely to keep GBP/USD above the 1.5250 support area in the short term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after tumbling towards the 1.3050 support against the US Dollar found support. The GBP/USD pair started an upside move from the 1.3080 swing low and moved above the 1.3100 handle. It also broke the 1.3180 resistance and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    It seems like the pair is following a crucial ascending channel with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart. The pair recently traded as high as 1.3291 before starting a short term correction. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    The downsides seem to be limited by the 1.3270 support and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    Overall, the pair remains in an uptrend as long as above 1.3250. It could soon move above the 1.3290 level to break the 1.3300 sell wall in the near term.

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