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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downside Pressure Increases Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downside Pressure Increases Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro is under a lot of pressure and is currently well below 1.1820 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Nov 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $35.0B as there was a trade surplus of $40.21B.

    China’s Trade Balance

    Recently China, the Trade Balance report for Nov 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of around $35.0B in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $35.0B as there was a trade surplus of $40.21B, which was also better than the last revised surplus of $38.19B. Exports of goods and services in Nov 2017 were up by 10.3%, more than the last +6.1%. Imports of goods and services in Nov 2017 were up by 15.6%, more than the last +15.9%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair failed to take advantage and the risk sentiment is still favoring the greenback for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a new downside leg after failing to settle above the 1.1900 and 1.1920 levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved down below the 1.1840 and 1.1820 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.1761 and it seems like it is following a declining channel with resistance at 1.1800 on the hourly chart. A minor correction is underway and the pair is heading towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1814 high to 1.1761 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is around the 1.1800 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1814 high to 1.1761 low. It seems like a break above the channel resistance and 1.1820 won’t be easy for the Euro.

     

    As long as the pair is below 1.1820, it remains in a downtrend towards the next support at 1.1720 in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyes an Upside Break Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyes an Upside Break Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro remains in a bullish zone above the 1.1840 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a short-term bearish trend line at 1.1860 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Nov 2017 was released by ISM-Chicago, Inc.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 63.0 as the index came in at 63.9.

     

    Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

    Recently in the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Nov 2017 was released by ISM-Chicago, Inc. The market was positioned for a decline in the index from 66.2 to 63.0 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 63.0 as the index came in at 63.9. However, we cannot ignore the fact that there was a decline from the last reading of 66.2 to 63.9. The report added:

     

    Despite receding from October’s six-and-a-half year high, optimism among businesses recorded the fourth highest outturn this year. The Barometer has expanded for 21 straight months and is poised to see out 2017 in solid fashion.

     

    The EUR/USD pair might continue to move higher and it could soon break 1.1940 for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move from the 1.1808 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was seen consolidating above the 1.1800 handle for some time before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair above the 1.1840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line at 1.1860 on the hourly chart. The pair tested another bearish trend line at 1.1930 and is currently consolidating gains below the same trend line.

     

    On the downside, there is a decent support near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1808 low to 1.1936 high. A break above the trend line resistance is needed for buyers to take the pair towards 1.1960-70 in the near term.

     

    Should there be any correction from the current levels, the pair might find support near 1.1880 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro gained bullish momentum this week and was able to move above the 1.1820 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from 58.5 to 58.3 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0. Moreover, the Euro Zone Composite Output Index was up from the last reading of 56.0 to 57.5 in Nov 2017. The report added:

     

    The eurozone economy is showing signs of picking up momentum in the fourth quarter, with multi-year highs seen for all main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation in November.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in a nice uptrend and it might continue to move higher towards 1.1900 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a decent uptrend from the 1.1710 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a nice upside move and traded above the 1.1780 and 1.1820 resistance levels, and is currently placed well above 1.1840 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair was able to break a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart, which has opened the doors for more gains. The pair traded as high as 1.1855 and is currently trading in a range. An ascending channel is forming with current support at 1.1850.

     

    The pair is likely to accelerate higher and it will most likely test the 1.1900 level. On the downside, the channel support is also near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1735 low to 1.1865 high.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.1820 support, it remains in an uptrend with next targets as 1.1900 and 1.1910.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is in an uptrend above the 1.1750 support area against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production.

     

    US Industrial Production

    Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was positioned for a 0.5% rise in the Industrial Production in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production. It was even above the last revised reading of +0.4%. The report added:

     

    The index for utilities rose 2.0 percent, but mining output fell 1.3 percent, as Hurricane Nate caused a sharp but short-lived decline in oil and gas drilling and extraction.

     

    The EUR/USD corrected a few pips, but the overall trend is positive as long as the pair is above 1.1750.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro maintained a bid tone this week above 1.1700 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move and was able to move above the 1.1700 and 1.1750 resistance levels to close above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 1.1860 and later started a downside correction. It moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high. However, the downside move was limited by the 1.1760 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high.

     

    There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart, which is also positioned near the 100 hourly SMA. The pair is once again gaining momentum above 1.1780 and looks set to continue moving higher.

     

    Any dips from the current levels toward 1.1780 and 1.1760 can be seen as a buying opportunity in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is moving nicely and is currently above the 1.1600 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1615 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4th Nov 2017 were released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 231K, as claims posted were 239K.

     

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4th Nov 2017 were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a rise in the claims from the last reading of 229K to 231K.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 231K, as there was a rise in claims from 229K to 239K. The report added:

     

    The 4-week moving average was 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 232,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750.

     

    The EUR/USD gained traction lately and it seems like the pair might trade further above 1.1655 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded with a positive bias recently after trading as low as 1.1553 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move from 1.1553 and traded above the 1.1600 handle to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 1.1655 and is currently consolidating. On the downside, an initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1553 low to 1.1655 high. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1615 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1553 low to 1.1655 high. Therefore, there are chances of 1.1615 acting as a decent support and buy zone in the near term.

     

    Any corrections from the current levels toward the 1.1615 level can be considered as a buying opportunity, however, the pair needs to stay above the 1.1600 handle.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro fell sharply towards 1.1570 against the US Dollar before starting a short-term correction.
    • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.1635 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Oct 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 50.8 as there was a rise in the PMI from 50.6 to 51.2.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a rise in the PMI from the last reading of 50.6 to 50.8 in Oct 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 50.8 as there was a rise from 50.6 to 51.2 in the Caixin Services PMI. On the other hand, the Composite Output index fell from the last reading of 51.4 to 51.0. The report added:

     

    The softer increase in overall output was largely driven by a further slowdown in manufacturing production growth. Output at Chinese goods producers rose at only a marginal pace that was the weakest since June.

     

    The market sentiment improved after the result, and that’s why there are chances of further recoveries in EUR/USD, depending on how today’s US nonfarm payrolls come out.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro faced a lot of selling pressure this past week and declined below 1.1680 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1573 and later started a slow and steady upside correction above the 1.1600 handle.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1573 low, and also managed to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair seems to be following an ascending channel with support at 1.1635 on the hourly chart.

     

    At present, the Euro buyers are struggling to clear the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1573 low. It would need a close above 1.1700 for buyers to move back in control.

     

    Any dips from the current levels toward the 1.1630 level can be seen as a buying opportunity, but traders need to be very careful heading into the all-important US NFP Oct’s release today.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Nosedives Vs US Dollar Post ECB

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Nosedives Vs US Dollar Post ECB

    • – The Euro declined sharply and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar after the ECB interest rate decision.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1770 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Sep 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise in the index by 0.9% (MoM).

     

    German Import Price Index

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Sep 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in the price index by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of +0.4%, as there was a rise in the index by 0.9%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for an increase of 2.6% in the import price index in Sep 2017, and the actual was once again better as there was a rise of 3.0%. It was also higher compared with the last +2.1%.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher in the short term, but upsides are likely to be capped by the 1.1700 handle.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading towards the 1.1830 level found sellers and a bearish trend line against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move and traded below the 1.1800 support area. The downside move gained traction after the ECB interest rate decision, and the pair tumbled below 1.1750.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1770 on the hourly chart. It traded as low as 1.1624 and is current consolidating losses. On the upside, an initial hurdle is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1624 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is close to the 1.1700 handle and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1624 low.

     

    Therefore, any major rallies in the short term towards 1.1700 can be considered as selling opportunity.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro faced sellers near 1.1855 against the US Dollar recently and corrected lower.
    • – There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.1850 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Producer Price Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.1%, as there was a rise in the PPI by 0.3% (MoM).

     

    German CPI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Producer Price Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in the PPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of +0.1%, as there was a rise in the PPI by 0.3%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for an increase of 2.9% in the PPI in Sep 2017, and the actual was again better as there was a rise of 3.1%. It was also better than the last +2.6%. The report added:

     

    Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.4%, prices of intermediate goods by 3.6%. Energy prices rose by 4.6%, though the development of prices of the different energy carriers diverged.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1840-50 resistance area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro recovered well from the 1.1730 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace recently and traded above the 1.1800 and 1.1840 resistance levels. However, the upside move was capped by the 1.1850-60 levels.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1729 low to 1.1857 high. It seems like there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.1850 on the hourly chart.

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near the triangle support and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1729 low to 1.1857 high. It remains in the bullish zone as long as above 1.1800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There can be more gains in the short term, but buyers need to push the pair above the 1.1850 resistance to avoid any declines going forward.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro declined recently and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6% (MoM).

     

    German Factory Orders

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in orders by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 4.7% in orders, but the actual was +7.8%. It was also way higher than the last increase of +5%. The report added:

     

    In August 2017, domestic orders increased by 2.7% and foreign orders by 4.3% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 1.0%, new orders from other countries increased 7.7% compared to July 2017.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher towards 1.1730, but upsides are likely to remain capped.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined during the past few sessions after making a short-term top above 1.1770 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1740 and 1.1720 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.1685 and is currently attempting a short-term correction. On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is near 1.1740 and the 50% % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1750 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, it remains sell on rallies in the short term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro after a sharp downside move towards the 1.1860 against the US Dollar found support.
    • – There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2. Moreover, the Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index surged to 56.7 from the last reading of 55.7, which is a 4-month high. Commenting on the same, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated:

     

    The eurozone economy ended the summer with a burst of activity, with the PMI signalling renewed impetus to already-impressive rates of growth of output, order books and employment during September.

     

    The result was positive, and would continue to help EUR/USD to remain above the 1.1950 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a test of the 1.2034 level against the US Dollar made a sharp downside move. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.2020 support and broke a major bullish trend line at 1.1990 on the hourly chart along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1860 from where it started a correction. The pair has recovered sharply and broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2034 high to 1.1860 low. There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a trend catalyst.

     

    On the upside, the most important resistance sits near 1.2000 and 1.2020. There is a chance of a reaction, but the overall trend is positive above 1.1970.

     

    As long as the pair is above 1.1970, one may consider buying in the short term, looking for a break above 1.2020.

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