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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro likely made a short-term top near 1.1878 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1% (MoM).

     

    German CPI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in the CPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 1.8% in the CPI, and the actual was similar to the forecast and the last increase of 1.8%. The report added:

     

    Food prices in September 2017 rose 3.6% year on year, their increase being even larger than that of energy prices. In September 2017, above all edible fats and oils (+34.2%) were more expensive than a year earlier.

     

    The result was neutral, but might hold heavy losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1800 support in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro slowly and steadily moved higher and traded above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1840-1.1850 resistance before forming a short-term high at 1.1878.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently trading near another bullish trend line with support at 1.1840 on the same chart. If sellers succeed in breaking the second bullish trend line, there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high at 1.1817.

     

    Overall, the pair remains supported for more gains as long as there is no close below the 1.1800 support area.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro declined recently and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6% (MoM).

     

    German Factory Orders

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in orders by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 4.7% in orders, but the actual was +7.8%. It was also way higher than the last increase of +5%. The report added:

     

    In August 2017, domestic orders increased by 2.7% and foreign orders by 4.3% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 1.0%, new orders from other countries increased 7.7% compared to July 2017.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher towards 1.1730, but upsides are likely to remain capped.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined during the past few sessions after making a short-term top above 1.1770 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1740 and 1.1720 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.1685 and is currently attempting a short-term correction. On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is near 1.1740 and the 50% % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1750 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, it remains sell on rallies in the short term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently struggling to recover above 1.1800 against the US Dollar, and remains at risk.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8% (YoY).

     

    German Retail Sales

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in sales by 3.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.4% in sales, whereas the market was positioned for a 0.5% rise. The report added:

     

    According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in August 2017 was in real terms 2.8% and in nominal terms 4.7% larger than that in August 2016. The number of days open for sale was 27 in August 2017 and in August 2016.

     

    The result was negative and most likely to impact the EUR/USD pair and could push it below the 1.1750 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2000-1.1980 swing area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1860 and 1.1800 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1717 before starting a short-term correction. The pair has recovered and moved above the 1.1750 level. However, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2004 high to 1.1717 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart. The trend line resistance is just below the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.1800 level.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1800 level and the 100 hourly SMA, it might decline once again below 1.1750.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro after a sharp downside move towards the 1.1860 against the US Dollar found support.
    • – There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2. Moreover, the Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index surged to 56.7 from the last reading of 55.7, which is a 4-month high. Commenting on the same, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated:

     

    The eurozone economy ended the summer with a burst of activity, with the PMI signalling renewed impetus to already-impressive rates of growth of output, order books and employment during September.

     

    The result was positive, and would continue to help EUR/USD to remain above the 1.1950 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a test of the 1.2034 level against the US Dollar made a sharp downside move. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.2020 support and broke a major bullish trend line at 1.1990 on the hourly chart along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1860 from where it started a correction. The pair has recovered sharply and broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2034 high to 1.1860 low. There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a trend catalyst.

     

    On the upside, the most important resistance sits near 1.2000 and 1.2020. There is a chance of a reaction, but the overall trend is positive above 1.1970.

     

    As long as the pair is above 1.1970, one may consider buying in the short term, looking for a break above 1.2020.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently trading below 1.1950 against the US Dollar, and struggling to gain momentum.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K.

     

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for an increase in the claims from the last reading of 298K to 300K for the week ending Sep 9, 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K. The 4-week moving average now stands at 263,250, which is around 13,000 more than the previous week’s unrevised average of 250,250. The report added that:

     

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending September 2, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.

     

    Moreover, the US CPI rate was also released, which exceeded forecast and came in at 1.9% (YoY), whereas the forecast was +1.8%.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined from the 1.2090 swing high against the US Dollar, and traded below the 1.2020 support area. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2000 level, 1.1950 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1837 from where it started a correction. The pair has already moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low. However, the pair faces many hurdles, including a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low is also acting as a resistance near 1.1920. Therefore, a break above 1.1920-1.1940 won’t be easy.

     

    As long as the pair is below the 1.1940, sellers remain in control and there can be a retest of 1.1850 in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back above 1.2000 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back above 1.2000 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro once again grabbed bids and moved above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Trade Balance for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of €20.3B, as there was a trade surplus of €19.5B.

     

    German Trade Balance

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Trade Balance for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of €20.3B, compared with the last €21.2B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of €20.3B, as there was a trade surplus of €19.5B. Exports of goods and services in July 2017 were up by 0.2%, lower than the forecast of 1.25%, but more than the last revised -2.70%. Imports of goods and services in July 2017 were up by 2.2%, lower than the forecast of 2.8%, but more than the last revised -4.4%. The report added that:

    The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017. In July 2016, the surplus amounted to 19.1 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain in the bullish zone and dips towards 1.2000 are seen as buying opportunity.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a dip towards the 1.1820 against the US Dollar regained bids and was able to move higher. The EUR/USD pair made a nice upside move and traded above 1.1920, 1.2020 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    These are positive signs and means the pair is back in the bullish zone above 1.2000. It recently traded as high as 1.2093 where it faced sellers and currently correcting lower. It has moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1929 low to 1.2092 high.

     

    On the downside, there are two bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1929 low to 1.2092 high at 1.2011.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.2000 handle and the trend lines it remains in the bullish zone and can be bought on dips.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Retest 1.1820 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Retest 1.1820 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2069-70 swing high against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was no change in the PMI from 57.4.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4.

     

    The actual result was expected, as there was no change in the PMI from 57.4. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index on the other hand posted a decline from the last reading of 59.4 to 59.3. The German PMI report added that:

    German manufacturing posted a stronger performance in August following July’s slight loss of momentum, according to the latest PMI® survey data from IHS Markit and BME. Overall operating conditions improved at a pace close to the six-year highs seen in May and June. Output, new orders and new export business all rose more sharply than in July, with the latter expanding at the fastest rate since May 2010.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair is likely to decline in the near term and could even retest the 1.1820 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a super uptrend and traded above the 1.2050 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a top near 1.2069-70 and later started correcting lower. It declined below the 1.2000 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is following a declining path and a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1890 on the hourly chart. It recently traded as low as 1.1821 and started correcting above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2069 high to 1.1821 low.

     

    However, the upside move was protected by the trend line resistance and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2069 high to 1.1821 low.

     

    As long as there is no close above the trend line resistance and 1.1900, the pair might continue to decline in the near term. A close above 1.1900 could take EUR/USD towards 1.1950.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Testing Crucial Support Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Testing Crucial Support Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro struggled to move above the 1.1820-30 levels against the US Dollar and moved down.
    • – There is a monster support confluence area forming near two bullish trend lines at 1.1775 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for August 2017 was released by the CESifo Group.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was a minor decline from 116.0 to 115.9.

     

    German Business Climate Index

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for August 2017 was released by the CESifo Group. The market was positioned for a decline in the index from the last reading of 116.0 to 115.5.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there was a minor decline from 116.0 to 115.9. On the other hand, the German IFO Expectations in August 2017 rose from the last reading of 107.3 to 107.9. However, the German IFO Current Assessment posted a decline from the last revised reading of 125.5 to 124.6.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair is likely to hold the 1.1775 support area and might trade in a range in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro remains in a decent uptrend above the 1.1750 support area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair recently made a couple of attempts to settle above the 1.1820-30 levels, but it failed to gains momentum to trade towards 1.1850.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    A bearish trend line on the hourly chart at 1.1820 is preventing gains in the pair and pushed it down on a couple of occasions. On the downside, there is a monster support confluence area forming near two bullish trend lines at 1.1775 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    The pair recently tested the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1738 low to 1.1823 high. The trend lines support near 1.1775-80 is holding very well and preventing declines in the near term.

     

    As long as the pair is above 1.1770 and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it is likely to continue trading higher.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Declining Path Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Declining Path Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro is slowly and steadily moving lower towards 1.16800 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1760 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Current Account figure for June 2017 was released by European Central Bank.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast, as there was a trade surplus of €21.2B, less than the forecast of €27.3B.

     

    Euro Zone Current Account

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Current Account figure for June 2017 was released by European Central Bank. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of €27.3B (seasonally adjusted).

     

    The actual result was below the forecast, as there was a trade surplus of €21.2B, less than the forecast of €27.3B. It was also a lot less than the last €30.5B. Looking at the cumulated current account on the year-over-year basis, there was a trade surplus of €336.5 billion. The report added that:

    This development was due to decreases in the surpluses for goods (from €369.0 billion to €341.1 billion) and services (from €63.3 billion to €46.5 billion), and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €120.0 billion to €144.8 billion).

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair may find it very difficult to break the 1.1750-60 resistance area in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading towards the 1.1850 level against the US Dollar faced offers and started declining. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.1820 support, which increased the bearish pressure and pushed the pair below the 1.1800 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It seems like the pair is following a declining pattern with resistance near 1.1780 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1760 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    On the downside, an initial support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1661 low to 1.1758 high. However, the most important support is near 1.1680, which protected losses on many occasions earlier.

     

    Overall, selling rallies close to the 1.1760-80 levels remain a good option with a stop above 1.1800 in the short term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 1.1800 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 1.1800 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro traded lower recently and broke the 1.1780-1.1800 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1775 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Germany consumer price index for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was an increase of 0.4% in the CPI (MoM).

     

    German CPI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Germany consumer price index for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.4% in the CPI compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was an increase of 0.4% in the CPI. In terms of the yearly change, the German CPI rose 1.7%, similar to the forecast and the last reading. The Harmonized CPI also remained at 1.5% (YoY). The report added that:

    Energy prices were up by 0.9% in July 2017 year on year. The rise in energy prices was thus considerably smaller than the overall rise in prices. In June 2017, Energy prices had still been on the level of June 2016.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair may continue to trade in a range above 1.1725 before making an upside break attempt.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downtrend this week and broke a few key support levels such as 1.1880, 1.1840 and 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1688 before starting a correction above the 1.1700 level.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair managed to move above the 1.1715 support area, but facing sellers near 1.1780. There is a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1775 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    On the downside, an initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1703 low to 1.1784 high. At the moment, the pair is trading just below the trend line resistance of 1.1775 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    So, there is a chance of a minor downside move towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1703 low to 1.1784 high at 1.1740. As long as the pair is above the 1.1700-10 levels, it may attempt a break above 1.1780-1.1800 in the near term.

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