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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    • – The Euro started a downside move and traded below the 1.2360 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4.

    German IFO Business Climate Index

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group. The market was looking for the index to decline from the last reading of 117.6 to 117.0 in Feb 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4. The German IFO Current Assessment index also posted a decline from the last revised reading of 127.8 to 126.3. Moreover, the IFO Expectations index fell from the last revised reading of 108.3 to 105.4.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is facing sellers after it broke the 1.2400 and 1.2360 support levels, which could increase pressure in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a fresh downside wave from well above the 1.2450 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below a couple of support levels such as 1.2400 and 1.2360 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2259. It started an upside correction and moved above the 1.2300 level. However, the pair is struggling to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2551 high to 1.2259 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line resistance near 1.2330 is also around the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, a break above the 1.2330 level won’t be easy for buyers.

     

    On the downside, the 1.2280 level is a decent support followed by 1.2250. Below 1.2250, the pair may retest the 1.2200 level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro made a nice upside move this week and traded above 1.2500 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B.

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was looking for the flows to be around $50.3B, down from the last $57.5B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B. Looking at the total Net TIC Flows, the market was looking for $-37.0B, but it came in at $-119.3B. This was also well below the last revised reading of $33.5B.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely above the 1.2500 support and it may continue to rise in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decline towards the 1.2260 level found support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move, traded above the 1.2350 and 1.2480 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.2500 level and traded as high as 1.2546 recently. It may correct a few pips in the near term, which an initial support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    However, the pair remains supported on the downside above 1.2500. There is also an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart. Below the channel support, the next major support is at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    On the upside, the pair may soon break the 1.2540-50 resistance area and trade towards 1.2600 in the near term, which is the next major resistance.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside wave and moved below the 1.2280 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018 (MoM).

    Chinese Consumer Price Index

    Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking for a rise of 0.6% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018. In terms of the yearly change, the Chinese CPI rose 1.5%, which was in line with the forecast, but it was below the last 1.8%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, and it seems like the pair could even break the 1.2200 support for more declines.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading above the 1.2500 level found sellers against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.2400 and 1.2320 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2211 low recently and is currently correcting higher. It already tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low. However, there was no follow through and the pair is now back below the 1.2270 support.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low is near the trend line resistance.

     

    Therefore, a break above the 1.2290 and 1.2300 levels won’t be easy. If EUR/USD fails to move higher, it could soon break the 1.2200 support area and decline further may be towards the 1.2150 level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Buy on Dips Near 1.2460 Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Buy on Dips Near 1.2460 Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro is in a major uptrend and it recently tested the 1.2500 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 1.2460 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 58.8 as the index came in at 59.1.

    US ISM Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released. The market was looking for a decrease in the index from the last reading of 59.7 to 58.8.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 58.8 as the index came in at 59.1. The last reading was revised down from 59.7 to 59.3. Thus, the overall decline was 0.2. The report added that:

     

    New Orders, Production, and Employment Continue Growing, Supplier Deliveries Slowing at Faster Rate, Backlog Growing Raw Materials Inventories Growing, Customers’ Inventories Too Low Prices Increasing at Faster Rate.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is well supported above the 1.2450-60 levels and it may continue to move higher in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move and traded above the 1.2450 resistance level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even traded above the 1.2500 level and is currently placed well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.2522 before it started a downside correction. It is currently testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2522 high. The current price action is positive as long as the pair is above 1.2450.

     

    On the downside, there is a crucial ascending channel forming with support at 1.2460 on the hourly chart. The channel support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2522 high. Therefore, the 1.2450-60 area is a major support and it can be seen as a buy zone.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.2450 level, dips remain supported. On the upside, an initial resistance is at 1.2500, followed by the 1.2520-30 resistance zone.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro bullish Above 1.2400 US dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro bullish Above 1.2400 US dollar?

    • – The Euro surged higher this week and traded above the 1.2500 resistance against the US Dollar before starting a correction.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with current support at 1.2405 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the number of New Home sales for Dec 2017 was released by the US Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -7.9% as there was a decline in sales by 9.3%.

    US New Home Sales

    Recently in the US, the number of New Home sales for Dec 2017 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for a decrease in sales by around 7.9% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -7.9% as there was a decline in sales by 9.3%. The last reading was also revised down from +17.5% to +15.0%. The report added that:

     

    This is 9.3 percent (±11.0 per cent)* below the revised November rate of 689,000, but is 14.1 percent (±13.0 percent) above the December 2016 estimate of 548,000. An estimated 608,000 new homes were sold in 2017. This is 8.3 percent (±4.1 percent) above the 2016 figure of 561,000.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in an uptrend as long as the 1.2400 support area is intact, and the pair may continue to move higher.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro surged higher this week and gained by more than 250 pips to trade above the 1.2500 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded above the 1.2400 and 1.2500 levels and is currently placed well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair formed a high at 1.2537 from where a sharp downside wave was initiated. However, the pair found support around the 1.2370-80 level and is currently holding ground. There is a major bullish trend line forming with current support at 1.2405 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is moving higher and is currently above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2537 high to 1.2365 low.

     

    The pair will most likely continue to move higher back towards 1.2500. Above the 1.2500 level, the pair may head towards the 1.2540 level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Break 1.2300 Vs US dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Break 1.2300 Vs US dollar?

    • – The Euro is in a major uptrend and is currently trading above 1.2220 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with current support at 1.2240 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending Jan 13, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 250K as there was a decline in claims from 261K to 220K.

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending Jan 13, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a decrease in claims from the last reading of 261K to 250K.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 250K as there was a decline in claims from 261K to 220K. On the other hand, the Counting Jobless Claims came in at 1.952M, a bit more than the forecast of 1.900M. The report added that:

     

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 6 was 1,952,000, an increase of 76,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

     

    The EUR/USD pair declined a few pips after the release, but the pair remained supported above the 1.2200-1.2240 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move and traded above the 1.2100 resistance level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained solid upside pace to clear the 1.2250 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The upside move was strong and the pair traded as high as 1.2322 before starting a downside correction. It traded as low as 1.2169 and is currently moving back higher. On the downside, a crucial bullish trend line is providing support at 1.2240 on the hourly chart.

     

    Recently, the pair broke a short-term connecting bearish trend line at 1.2240. Moreover, it broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2325 high to 1.2169 low. It has opened the doors for more gains in the near term above 1.2300.

     

    The pair will most likely break the 1.2300 resistance and gain pace towards 1.2325 as long as it is above the 1.2240 support area.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Breaks Key Resistance Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Breaks Key Resistance Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro made a nice upside move and broke the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1990 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Dec 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $37.00B as there was a trade surplus of $54.69B.

    China’s Trade Balance

    Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Dec 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of $37.00B compared with the last reading of $40.21B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $37.00B as there was a trade surplus of $54.69B. China’s Imports of goods and services in Dec 2017 increased by 4.5%, which was less than the forecast of 13.0%. Moreover, exports of goods and services in Dec 2017 increased by 10.9%, which was more than the forecast of 9.1%

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely in the bullish zone and the pair may continue to rise as long as above 1.2000.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a decent upside move from the 1.1928 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded higher and broke the 1.1950 and 1.1960 resistance levels. It initiated a nice uptrend and the pair was able to break the 1.2000 level.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1990 on the hourly chart. The pair is now well above the 1.2000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.2065 recently and it looks set for more gains.

     

    An initial support on the downside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1928 low to 1.2065 high.

     

    If the pair corrects lower from the current levels, it is likely to find support around 1.2020 and 1.2000. On the upside, a break above 1.2065 could push EUR/USD towards 1.2100.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – What’s Next for Euro When Market Reopens?

    EUR/USD Forecast – What’s Next for Euro When Market Reopens?

    • – The Euro is trading in the bullish zone above 1.1950 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two important bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1980 and 1.1920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Germany consumer price index preliminary reading for Dec 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +1.5% as there was a rise in the CPI by 1.7% (YoY).

    German CPI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Germany consumer price index preliminary reading for Dec 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was looking for an increase in the CPI by 1.5% in Dec 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +1.5% as there was a rise in the CPI by 1.7%. Looking at the monthly change, the CPI increased by 0.6%, which was better than the forecast of +0.5% and also above the last reading of +0.3%. The report added that:

     

    In December 2017, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.6% year on year and 0.8% on November 2017. On an annual average, the harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to be up 1.7% in 2017 as compared with a year earlier.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in a decent uptrend and it will most likely move above the 1.2000 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move recently above the 1.1900 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved above the 1.1940 and 1.1950 resistance levels and even traded a few pips above the 1.2000 handle this past week.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.2025 and is currently correcting lower. It has breached the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1922 low to 1.2025 high. On the downside, there are two important bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1980 and 1.1920 on the hourly chart.

     

    The first trend line is very important since it is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1922 low to 1.2025 high.

     

    Therefore, buying dips remain a good option when the market opens as long as EUR/USD is above the 1.1920 support level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Turned Bearish Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Turned Bearish Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro traded towards 1.1900 recently where it faced sellers against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 1.1865 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Gross Domestic Product Annualized reading for Q3 2017 was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +3.3% as there was a rise in the GDP by 3.2%.

    US GDP

    Recently in the US, the Gross Domestic Product Annualized reading for Q3 2017 was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market was looking for an increase in the GDP by 3.3% compared with the last reading of 3.3%.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +3.3% as there was a rise in the GDP by 3.2%. The Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Dec 16, 2017 was also released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for an increase from the last reading of 225K to 231K. However, the actual was again disappointing, as there was an increase in the claims from 225K to 245K.

     

    The EUR/USD pair faced a lot of sellers recently around 1.1900 and there are chances of it extending declines in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a nice uptrend from the 1.1750 low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved above the 1.1800 and 1.1850 resistance levels and even settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    However, the pair failed around the 1.1900 resistance and started a downside move. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1737 low to 1.1901 high. Moreover, there was a break below a crucial bullish trend line with support at 1.1865 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently under a bearish pressure and it recently found support around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1737 low to 1.1901 high. Moreover, the 100 hourly SMA also acted as a support at 1.1825.

     

    The pair is currently moving higher, but it may face sellers on the upside near a bearish trend line on the same chart at 1.1860.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently trading lower and is testing a major support near 1.1765 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1765 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Dec 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.9 to 55.0.

    US Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Dec 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was looking for an increase in the PMI in Dec 2017 from the last reading of 53.9 to 54.0.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the PMI from 53.9 to 55.0. On the other hand, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Dec 2017 (Prelim) was forecasted to increase from 54.5 to 55.0. However, the result was lower, as there was a decline from 54.5 to 52.4.

     

    The EUR/USD pair was seen trading lower recently from the 1.1860 swing high and is currently under a lot of pressure.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a decent upside move from the 1.1715 swing low and moved above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded above the 1.1840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average, but failed to gain traction above 1.1860.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair started a downside move and traded below the 1.1800 handle. The current decline is a bearish signal, but the pair is approaching a major support at 1.1765. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1765 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support and somehow the 100 hourly SMA is acting as a support above 1.1760. The pair is currently recovering, but facing sellers near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1862 high to 1.1763 low.

     

    Overall, the pair might recover in the near term above 1.1800, but it needs to stay above 1.1765 in order to avoid more declines.

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