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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Moved Into Bearish Zone Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move and traded below 1.2360 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line at 1.2355 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for April 2018 was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 20.1 as there was a rise in the index from 22.3 to 23.2.

    Philadelphia Fed Survey

    Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for April 2018 was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The market was looking for a decline in the index from the last reading of 22.3 to 20.1 in April 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 20.1 as there was a rise in the index from 22.3 to 23.2. This means that there could be continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The report added that:

     

    Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases. The indexes for current new orders and shipments remained positive but fell 17 points and 9 points, respectively.

     

    The EUR/USD moved down and broke a major support area near 1.2360 to move into a bearish zone in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded nicely above the 1.2350 level this week against the US Dollar until it found sellers around the 1.2400 level. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.2360 support level, and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the downside move, there was a break below a key bullish trend line at 1.2355 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even traded below the 1.2340 level and moved to a new intraday low at 1.2329.

     

    It is currently consolidating losses above the 1.2330 level and is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2399 high to 1.2329 low. To the topside, the broken support at 1.2360 and the 100 hourly SMA are likely to act as major hurdles for buyers.

     

    On the downside, a break below the 1.2330 level could open the doors for further losses toward the 1.2300 level in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2340 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2340 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro declined after trading as high as 1.2395 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – China’s Trade Balance report for March 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $27.21B as there was a trade deficit of $-4.98B.

    China’s Trade Balance

    Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for March 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of $27.21B compared with the last surplus of $33.74B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $27.21B as there was a trade deficit of $-4.98B. Moreover, the last reading was revised from $33.74B to $33.75B. Imports of goods and services in March 2018 increased 14.4%, more than the forecast of 10%. Exports of goods and services in March 2018 decreased 2.7% compared with the forecast of +10%

     

    The EUR/USD is currently under pressure, but it may hold the 1.2320 support and it could trade higher in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro found a strong selling interest below the 1.2400 level against the US Dollar and started a downside move. The EUR/USD pair formed a top at 1.2395 and declined below 1.2360 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The downside move was sharp and the pair traded as low as 1.2299. Later, it found support and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2395 high to 1.2299 low.

     

    Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently moving higher, but it is struggling to break the 100 hourly SMA and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2395 high to 1.2299 low.

     

    The pair has to break the 1.2335 resistance and a bearish trend line at 1.2340 on the same chart to start an upside move. On the other hand, a break below the 1.2320 support could push EUR/USD below 1.2300.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Downtrend Below 1.2280 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Downtrend Below 1.2280 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2345 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2275 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $-56.8B as there was a trade deficit of $-57.6B.

    US Personal Income

    Recently in the US, the Trade Balance report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The market was looking for a trade deficit of $-56.8B similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $-56.8B as there was a trade deficit of $-57.6B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up from $-56.6B to $-56.7B. Overall, the result was neutral and did not impact the USD.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in a downtrend and it seems like the pair may continue to decline as long as it is below 1.2275.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro found sellers above the 1.2350 level against the US Dollar and started a downside move. The EUR/USD traded lower and declined below a few important support levels such as 1.2300 and 1.2280 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded close to the 1.2200 level and formed a low near 1.2217. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last downside move from the 1.2314 high to 1.2217 low.

     

    However, there are many barriers on the upside around 1.2300. There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2275 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last downside move from the 1.2314 high to 1.2217 low is at 1.2266.

     

    Therefore, if the pair moves higher, it is likely to face hurdles near the 1.2280 and 1.2300 levels. On the downside, the 1.2220 level is a decent support followed by the 1.2200 handle.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Regain Traction Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Regain Traction Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro traded as high as 1.2476 this week before moving lower against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2290 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Personal Income report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a rise in the personal income by 0.4%.

    US Personal Income

    Recently in the US, the Personal Income report for Feb 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. The market was looking for an increase of around 0.4% in income compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast as there was a rise in the personal income by 0.4%. This was also in line with the last reading of 0.4%. Looking at the personal spending, there was a rise of 0.2% in Feb 2018, which was similar to the forecast and the last reading.

     

    The EUR/USD pair may correct lower in the short term, but the 1.2290-1.2300 area is likely to hold losses.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded above the 1.2400 earlier this week against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD even traded above the 1.2450 level and formed a high near 1.2476 before starting a downside correction.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair moved down and broke the 1.2450 support. It also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2239 low to 1.2476 high. However, there are many supports on the downside such as 1.2300.

     

    There is also a major connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2290 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD. Above the trend line, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2239 low to 1.2476 high is at 1.2325.

     

    On the upside, a break above the 1.2450 and 1.2470 levels is needed for a push above the 1.2500 level in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Supported Above 1.2300 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Supported Above 1.2300 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro declined recently, but it held the 1.2300 support level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2315 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March 2018 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 55.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 55.3 to 55.7 in March 2018.

    US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March 2018 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was looking for a minor rise in the PMI from 55.3 to 55.5 in March 2018.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 55.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 55.3 to 55.7 in March 2018. On the other hand, the US Composite PMI Output Index was down from the last reading of 55.8 to 54.3.

     

    The EUR/USD pair managed to hold a major support near 1.2300-1.2310 and it seems like it may rise in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside correction after trading as high as 1.2388 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD declined and broke the 1.2350 and 1.2320 support levels.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    However, the downside move was protected by the 1.2300-10 support area and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair is currently moving higher and it has breached the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2388 high to 1.2284 low.

     

    On the downside, there is a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2315 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is struggling to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2388 high to 1.2284 low at 1.2335.

     

    A successful close above the 1.2335 and 1.2340 levels could open the doors for more gains in the near term. The next major upside resistance could at 1.2360, followed by the last swing high at 1.2388. On the downside, the 1.2310 and 1.2300 levels are important supports.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Bearish Below 1.2330 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Bearish Below 1.2330 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro failed to move above the 1.2400 level and declined sharply against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.2365 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Jan 2018 released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $35.9B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $62.1B.

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Jan 2018 released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was looking the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $35.9B compared with last reading of $27.3B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $35.9B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $62.1B. However, the last reading was revised down from $27.3B to $23.3B. Looking at the total Net TIC Flows, the market was expecting $43.1B, but it came in at $119.7B.

     

    The EUR/USD pair seems to be in a bearish zone and it could decline further below 1.2300 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a positive zone earlier this week and traded above the 1.2350 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD even traded a few pips above the 1.2400 level, but it could not gain upside momentum and declined.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair fell and traded below the 1.2380 and 1.2360 support level. There was also a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.2365 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is now trading well below the 1.2350 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    A low was formed recently at 1.2294 and the pair is currently consolidating. An initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2383 high to 1.2294 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance on the upside is near 1.2340, which was a support earlier. On the downside, a close below the 1.2300 level could ignite more losses back towards the 1.2250 level in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2280 US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2280 US Dollar?

    • – The Euro formed a short-term top near 1.2440 and declined against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2370 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Feb 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.8% as there was a rise of 1.2% in the CPI (MoM) in Feb 2018.

    China’s Consumer Price Index

    Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Feb 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking a rise of around 0.8% in the CPI in Feb 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.8% as there was a rise of 1.2% in the CPI (MoM) in Feb 2018. The yearly change was +2.9%, which was more than the forecast of +2.5% and it is also more than the last reading of +1.5%.

     

    The market sentiment is currently positive, but the EUR/USD pair remains at a risk of more declines below the 1.2280 level.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded higher this week and moved above the 1.2300 handle against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD traded high as 1.2446 before it faced sellers and started a downside move. It declined and traded below the 1.2380 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the downside, the pair broke the 1.2350 support and 1.2300. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2370 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair traded as low as 1.2294 and it is currently consolidating losses.

     

    On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2446 high to 1.2294 low. However, the most important hurdle is near the 1.2370 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2446 high to 1.2294 low.

     

    On the downside, the pair may soon break the 1.2294 low and it could even break the 1.2280 level in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Runs Into Crucial Resistance Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Runs Into Crucial Resistance Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro formed a support base near 1.2150 and recovered sharply against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2200 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2018 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 55.9 as the PMI posted a decline from the last reading of 55.9 to 55.3.

    US Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2018 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was looking for the PMI to remain stable around the 55.9 level.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 55.9 as the PMI posted a decline from the last reading of 55.9 to 55.3. The report added that:

     

    February survey data signalled one of the strongest improvements in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector seen over the past three years, led by a sharp expansion in new orders. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures intensified with rates of both input and output price inflation reaching multi-year highs.

     

    However, the EUR/USD pair gained traction and started an upside move above the 1.2200 level after the release.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a major decline found support around the 1.2150 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD formed a base around 1.2150, started an upside move, and broke the 1.2200 resistance to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair also broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2346 high to 1.2154 low. Moreover, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2200 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    The pair is now trading in a bullish zone and above 1.2250. However, it is facing a major resistance zone near 1.2280. There could be a minor downside reaction, but the pair remains supported above 1.2250 and the 100 hourly SMA.

     

    Overall, the pair may continue to move higher, and it could break the 1.2280 resistance level. It seems like the pair may even break the 1.2300 level to retest the last swing high near 1.2346.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Decline Below 1.2250 Vs US dollar?

    • – The Euro started a downside move and traded below the 1.2360 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4.

    German IFO Business Climate Index

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German business sentiment index for Feb 2018 was released by the CESifo Group. The market was looking for the index to decline from the last reading of 117.6 to 117.0 in Feb 2018.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 117.0 as the index declined from the last reading of 117.6 to 115.4. The German IFO Current Assessment index also posted a decline from the last revised reading of 127.8 to 126.3. Moreover, the IFO Expectations index fell from the last revised reading of 108.3 to 105.4.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is facing sellers after it broke the 1.2400 and 1.2360 support levels, which could increase pressure in the short term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a fresh downside wave from well above the 1.2450 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below a couple of support levels such as 1.2400 and 1.2360 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.2259. It started an upside correction and moved above the 1.2300 level. However, the pair is struggling to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2551 high to 1.2259 low.

     

    More importantly, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2330 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line resistance near 1.2330 is also around the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, a break above the 1.2330 level won’t be easy for buyers.

     

    On the downside, the 1.2280 level is a decent support followed by 1.2250. Below 1.2250, the pair may retest the 1.2200 level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

    • – The Euro made a nice upside move this week and traded above 1.2500 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B.

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was looking for the flows to be around $50.3B, down from the last $57.5B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B. Looking at the total Net TIC Flows, the market was looking for $-37.0B, but it came in at $-119.3B. This was also well below the last revised reading of $33.5B.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely above the 1.2500 support and it may continue to rise in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decline towards the 1.2260 level found support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move, traded above the 1.2350 and 1.2480 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.2500 level and traded as high as 1.2546 recently. It may correct a few pips in the near term, which an initial support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    However, the pair remains supported on the downside above 1.2500. There is also an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart. Below the channel support, the next major support is at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

     

    On the upside, the pair may soon break the 1.2540-50 resistance area and trade towards 1.2600 in the near term, which is the next major resistance.

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