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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro started an upside correction after trading as low as 1.1507 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1550 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise of 0.1% in the HPI (MoM).

    US Housing Price Index

    Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.3% in the Housing Price Index in April 2018, compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise of 0.1% in the HPI. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June 2018 was also released. It posted a decline from the last reading of 34.4 to 19.9.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher and it seems like it may perhaps move above the 1.1640 resistance zone in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined heavily from well above the 1.1850 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many supports on the way down such as 1.1640 and 1.1550 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded close to the 1.1500 level and formed a low at 1.1507. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1851 high to 1.1507 low.

     

    More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1550 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently trading above the 100 hourly SMA, but it is facing a major barrier near the 1.1640 level.

     

    The 1.1640 level was a support earlier and now it coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1851 high to 1.1507 low. Therefore, a break above the 1.1640 resistance may perhaps open the doors for more gains in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Might Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Might Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro traded towards the 1.1840 level recently before correcting lower against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a major ascending channel with support at 1.1810 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit report for April 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
    • – The outcome was below the market forecast of $13.75B as the Consumer Credit change came in at $9.26B.

    US Consumer Credit Change

    Recently in the US, the Consumer Credit report for April 2018 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was looking for a change in the credit by $13.75B, more than the last change of $11.62B.

     

    The actual result was below the market forecast of $13.75B as the Consumer Credit change came in at $9.26B. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims also posted a decline from the last revised reading of 223K to 222K for the week ending June 2.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently correcting lower and it may decline further towards the 1.1760 and 1.1750 levels in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro gained traction this week from the 1.1650 low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved higher and traded above a couple of important resistance levels such as 1.1700 and 1.1750 to place itself well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 1.1800 level and traded as high as 1.1838. Later, a downside correction was initiated and the pair declined below the 1.1820 and 1.1800 levels. There was also a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1714 low to 1.1838 high.

     

    More importantly, there was a break below a major ascending channel with support at 1.1810 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. At the moment, it seems like the price may continue to decline towards the 1.1770-60 support zone in the near term.

     

    On the downside, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1714 low to 1.1838 high could act as a support around 1.1770. Below this, the next support sits around the 1.1740 and 1.1730 levels.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break 1.1740 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Break 1.1740 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro jumped from the 1.1525 support area and moved above 1.1650 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Personal Income report for April 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 0.3% in the personal income (MoM).

    US Personal Income

    Recently in the US, the Personal Income report for April 2018 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.3% in the personal income in April 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was around the market forecast as there was a rise of 0.3% in the personal income. Looking at the Personal spending, there was a rise of 0.6%, more than the forecast of 0.4% and above the previous revised reading of +0.5%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair gained traction recently and moved above the 1.1650 resistance level with a positive bias.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined sharply this past week and traded below the 1.1550 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD traded close to the 1.1500 level and a low was formed around 1.1520. Later, the pair formed a base and started a sharp upside move above 1.1550.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair gained bullish momentum and broke many resistances such as 1.1600 and 1.1650. It even traded above the 1.1700 level, but the upside move was capped by the 1.1725 resistance. It is currently correcting lower and already traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1593 low to 1.1725 high once.

     

    However, the downside move was protected by the 1.1650 support and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1593 low to 1.1725 high. There is also a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    Overall, the pair remains in a nice uptrend above 1.1650, but it has to break the 1.1725 and 1.1740 resistance levels to accelerate further higher.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 128.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Recover Above 128.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro remained in a downtrend and it recently traded close to the 127.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major expanding triangle forming with current resistance at 128.30 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the CSPI by 0.9% (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.6% in the index in April 2018, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the CSPI by 0.9%. This was also above the increase of 0.5%. Moreover, the Services Producer Price Index excluding International transportation climbed around 0.8% from the previous year.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is currently correcting higher, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break the 128.30 and 128.50 resistance levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined and remained in a major downtrend from the 131.40 resistance against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke a few important support levels such as 131.00, 130.00 and 129.00 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded close to the 127.00 level and a low was formed at 127.14. Later, an upside correction was initiated and the pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 131.34 high to 127.14 low.

     

    The pair is currently testing a major expanding triangle with current resistance at 128.30 on the hourly chart. A break above the triangle resistance, followed by a break above 128.50 is needed for more gains in the near term.

     

    The next hurdle above 128.50 is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 131.34 high to 127.14 low at 129.24. On the downside, supports are at 127.80 and 127.50.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Upsides in Euro Remains Capped Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Upsides in Euro Remains Capped Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro recovered slightly after trading as low as 1.1675 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1730 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Existing Home Sales report for April 2018 was released by the National Association of Realtors.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.2% as there was a decline in sales by 2.5% (MoM).

    US Existing Home Sales

    Recently in the US, the Existing Home Sales report for April 2018 was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was looking for a minor decline of around 0.2% in sales in April 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -0.2% as there was a decline in sales by 2.5%. This was also a lot disappointing when compared to the last increase of 1.1%.  The report added:

     

    Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. With last month’s decline, sales are now 1.4 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for two straight months.

     

    The EUR/USD pair recovered a few pips, but it found a strong resistance near the 1.1740 and 1.1750 resistance levels.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined heavily this week and settled below the 1.1780 support level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1700 support level and traded to a new weekly low near 1.1675 before buyers appeared.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair started an upside correction and moved back above 1.1700. It also broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1829 high to 1.1675 low. However, the upside move was capped by a major bearish trend line with current resistance at 1.1730 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1829 high to 1.1675 low also acted as a strong barrier for buyers along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    It seems like the pair may remain in a bearish zone as long as it is below the trend line, 1.1750, and the 100 hourly SMA. On the downside, the 1.1700 and 1.1675 levels are decent supports.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro declined sharply this week and traded below 1.1850 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1790 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey Index was released for May 2018.
    • – The outcome was better than the forecast of 21.0 as there was a rise in the index to 34.4.

    US Philadelphia Fed Survey

    Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey Index was released for May 2018. The market was looking for a minor decline from the last reading of 23.2 to 21.0 in May 2018.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast of 21.0 as there was a rise in the index to 34.4. There were more than 43% of the manufacturers who reported gains in overall activity in May 2018. The report added:

     

    Both current new orders and shipments indexes improved this month, increasing 22 points and 2 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes remained positive, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating around the 1.1800 level and it seems like it may correct a few pips higher in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro faced a lot of selling interest this week and declined below 1.1900 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair tumbled and even broke the 1.1850 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    There was even a spike below the 1.1800 support, and a low was formed at 1.1763. Later, the pair started an upside correction and moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1763 low.

     

    However, the upside move was capped by the 1.1830 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1763 low. There was a minor downside reaction, and at the moment, the pair is consolidating around 1.1800. More importantly, there is a key contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1790 on the hourly chart.

     

    In the short term, it seems like the pair may break the 1.1810 resistance and correct higher. The next hurdles on the upside for buyers are near 1.1830, 1.1840 and 1.1850.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro started a nice upside move and traded above the 130.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1% (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

    Today in Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.1% in the index in April 2018, compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 2% in the index, which was same as the forecast, but less than the last +2.1%.

     

    The EUR/JPY pair is currently moving higher and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00 in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined below 130.00 this past week against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded as low as 129.20 before buyers appeared and protected more declines. The pair started an upside move and traded above the 129.50 and 130.00 resistance levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    It settled above the 130.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a minor downside correction once, but a key bullish trend line with current support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY prevented declines.

     

    The pair is now trading higher and is currently above the last swing high at 130.75. It means it may test the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low.

     

    The overall bias is very positive and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00. It could even test the 1.618 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low at 131.23. On the downside, supports are at 130.40 and the 100 hourly SMA.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely to Recover Further Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely to Recover Further Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro found support near 1.1820 after declining heavily against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 05, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was better than the forecast of 218K as there was no change in claims from 211K.

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 05, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a rise in claims from the last reading of 211K to 218K.

     

    The actual result was better than the forecast of 218K as there was no change in claims from 211K. Looking at the Counting Jobless Claims, it came in at 1.790M, more than the forecast of 1.778M, and also more than the last 1.760M.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently moving higher and it seems like it may recover further above 1.1920 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined heavily during the past few days from well above 1.2000 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded below a few support levels such as 1.1950 and 1.1900, and it even settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair found support near the 1.1820 level and started an upside move. It broke the 1.1850 resistance level and even cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the hourly chart.

     

    The upside move was strong as the pair even traded above the 1.1900 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It traded as high as 1.1947 before correcting lower. However, there is a major support near the 1.1900 level and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1822 low to 1.1947 high.

     

    There can be a minor downside reaction in EUR/USD in the short term but the pair remains supported above 1.1880-1.1900. On the upside, a break above 1.1920 and 1.1940 is needed for more gains towards 1.2000 in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2020 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Recover above 1.2020 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro declined further this week and traded towards 1.1940 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1980 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April 2018 was released by Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 54.4 as there was a rise in in the PMI from 54.4 to 54.6.

    US Services PMI

    Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April 2018 was released by Markit Economics. The market was looking for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 54.4 in April 2018.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 54.4 as there was a rise in in the PMI from 54.4 to 54.6. There was a decent rise in new orders pace. The report added:

     

    April survey data indicated a strong expansion in business activity across the U.S. service sector. However, although the rate of growth accelerated, it remained below the series’ long-run average. Meanwhile, the upturn in new business quickened to a sharp rate that was the fastest since March 2015.

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher, but it is likely to face a strong resistance near the 1.2020 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro was under a lot of pressure this week and declined below the 1.2000 support level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even declined below the 1.1960 support and settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.1937 before buyers appeared. At the moment, the pair is correcting higher and moved above the 1.1950 level. More importantly, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1980 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

     

    The pair also succeeded in moving past the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2138 high to 1.1937 low. However, there are many barriers on the upside around the 1.2020 level for the Euro buyers.

     

    If the pair continues to correct higher, it may face sellers near the 1.2020 level, 100 hourly SMA, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2138 high to 1.1937 low at 1.2038.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Bearish Below 1.2180 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Bearish Below 1.2180 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro declined recently and broke a major support at 1.2200 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two important bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2180 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Durable Goods Orders report for March 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +1.6% as there was a rise in orders by +2.6%.

    US Durable Goods Orders

    Recently in the US, the Durable Goods Orders report for March 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for a rise of 1.6% in orders in March 2018 compared with the last +3.1%.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +1.6% as there was a rise in orders by +2.6%. Moreover, the last reading was also revised up from +3.1% to +3.5%. On the other hand, the Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation was flat in March 2018, whereas the market was looking for a rise of 0.5%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remained in a bearish zone and it seems like the pair may decline further below 1.2090 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro faced a lot of selling pressure recently against the US Dollar, which resulted in a decline below the 1.2200 support area. The EUR/USD pair declined sharply and broke the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels to settle well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2095 and it is currently consolidating losses around the 1.2100 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2209 high to 1.2095 low.

     

    Moreover, there are two important bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2180 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The first trend is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2209 high to 1.2095 low.

     

    Therefore, a recovery towards the 1.2160 and 1.2180 resistance levels may face sellers in the near term. On the downside, a break below 1.2095 may call for more losses towards 1.2060.

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