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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downside Pressure Increases Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downside Pressure Increases Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro is under a lot of pressure and is currently well below 1.1820 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Nov 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $35.0B as there was a trade surplus of $40.21B.

    China’s Trade Balance

    Recently China, the Trade Balance report for Nov 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of around $35.0B in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $35.0B as there was a trade surplus of $40.21B, which was also better than the last revised surplus of $38.19B. Exports of goods and services in Nov 2017 were up by 10.3%, more than the last +6.1%. Imports of goods and services in Nov 2017 were up by 15.6%, more than the last +15.9%.

     

    The EUR/USD pair failed to take advantage and the risk sentiment is still favoring the greenback for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a new downside leg after failing to settle above the 1.1900 and 1.1920 levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair moved down below the 1.1840 and 1.1820 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as low as 1.1761 and it seems like it is following a declining channel with resistance at 1.1800 on the hourly chart. A minor correction is underway and the pair is heading towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1814 high to 1.1761 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is around the 1.1800 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1814 high to 1.1761 low. It seems like a break above the channel resistance and 1.1820 won’t be easy for the Euro.

     

    As long as the pair is below 1.1820, it remains in a downtrend towards the next support at 1.1720 in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyes an Upside Break Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyes an Upside Break Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro remains in a bullish zone above the 1.1840 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a short-term bearish trend line at 1.1860 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Nov 2017 was released by ISM-Chicago, Inc.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 63.0 as the index came in at 63.9.

     

    Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

    Recently in the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Nov 2017 was released by ISM-Chicago, Inc. The market was positioned for a decline in the index from 66.2 to 63.0 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 63.0 as the index came in at 63.9. However, we cannot ignore the fact that there was a decline from the last reading of 66.2 to 63.9. The report added:

     

    Despite receding from October’s six-and-a-half year high, optimism among businesses recorded the fourth highest outturn this year. The Barometer has expanded for 21 straight months and is poised to see out 2017 in solid fashion.

     

    The EUR/USD pair might continue to move higher and it could soon break 1.1940 for more gains in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move from the 1.1808 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was seen consolidating above the 1.1800 handle for some time before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair above the 1.1840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line at 1.1860 on the hourly chart. The pair tested another bearish trend line at 1.1930 and is currently consolidating gains below the same trend line.

     

    On the downside, there is a decent support near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1808 low to 1.1936 high. A break above the trend line resistance is needed for buyers to take the pair towards 1.1960-70 in the near term.

     

    Should there be any correction from the current levels, the pair might find support near 1.1880 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Bounce Back Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro to Bounce Back Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 133.25 swing high against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 132.75 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Oct 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017 (MoM).

     

    German Import Price Index

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Oct 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was around the forecast as there was a rise in the index by 0.6% in Oct 2017. However, it was below the last increase of 0.9%. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise in the index by 2.6% in Oct 2017, less than the last +3.0%.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice upside move and traded above the 133.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded as high as 133.25 and later started a downside move. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.22 low to 133.25 high.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 132.75 on the hourly chart. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.22 low to 133.25 high. However, the downside move was prevented by the 132.10 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair is currently recovering and it broke a bearish trend line at 132.25 on the same chart. It needs to gain momentum above the 132.50 level to recover further in the near term.

     

    Overall, the pair might continue to move higher towards 132.50-60 as long as it is positioned above the 132.00 handle and the 100 hourly SMA. The next major resistance above 132.60 is at 132.85.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro gained bullish momentum this week and was able to move above the 1.1820 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from 58.5 to 58.3 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0. Moreover, the Euro Zone Composite Output Index was up from the last reading of 56.0 to 57.5 in Nov 2017. The report added:

     

    The eurozone economy is showing signs of picking up momentum in the fourth quarter, with multi-year highs seen for all main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation in November.

     

    The EUR/USD pair remains in a nice uptrend and it might continue to move higher towards 1.1900 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a decent uptrend from the 1.1710 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a nice upside move and traded above the 1.1780 and 1.1820 resistance levels, and is currently placed well above 1.1840 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair was able to break a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart, which has opened the doors for more gains. The pair traded as high as 1.1855 and is currently trading in a range. An ascending channel is forming with current support at 1.1850.

     

    The pair is likely to accelerate higher and it will most likely test the 1.1900 level. On the downside, the channel support is also near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1735 low to 1.1865 high.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.1820 support, it remains in an uptrend with next targets as 1.1900 and 1.1910.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro declined recently and traded below the 132.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index (MoM).

     

    Japan’s All Industry Activity Index

    Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.4% in the index compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index. It was also well below the last increase of 0.1%. The Indices of Construction Industry Activity was down by 2.3% in Sep 2017, and the Indices of Industrial Production was down by 1%.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a major downside move from the 133.88 swing high against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair declined and broke a couple of important support levels such as 132.60 and 132.00. It even traded below the 131.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 131.17 and later started an upside correction. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low. However, the broken support near 132.40-50 is now acting as a resistance. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low is near 132.55 and the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, there are many resistances on the upside for EUR/JPY and it won’t be easy for the pair to move past 132.60.

     

    In the short term, selling rallies can be opted near 132.45 and 132.60 as long as there is break and close above the 100 hourly SMA.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is in an uptrend above the 1.1750 support area against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production.

     

    US Industrial Production

    Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was positioned for a 0.5% rise in the Industrial Production in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production. It was even above the last revised reading of +0.4%. The report added:

     

    The index for utilities rose 2.0 percent, but mining output fell 1.3 percent, as Hurricane Nate caused a sharp but short-lived decline in oil and gas drilling and extraction.

     

    The EUR/USD corrected a few pips, but the overall trend is positive as long as the pair is above 1.1750.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro maintained a bid tone this week above 1.1700 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move and was able to move above the 1.1700 and 1.1750 resistance levels to close above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 1.1860 and later started a downside correction. It moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high. However, the downside move was limited by the 1.1760 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high.

     

    There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart, which is also positioned near the 100 hourly SMA. The pair is once again gaining momentum above 1.1780 and looks set to continue moving higher.

     

    Any dips from the current levels toward 1.1780 and 1.1760 can be seen as a buying opportunity in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is moving nicely and is currently above the 1.1600 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1615 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4th Nov 2017 were released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 231K, as claims posted were 239K.

     

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4th Nov 2017 were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a rise in the claims from the last reading of 229K to 231K.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 231K, as there was a rise in claims from 229K to 239K. The report added:

     

    The 4-week moving average was 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 232,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750.

     

    The EUR/USD gained traction lately and it seems like the pair might trade further above 1.1655 in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded with a positive bias recently after trading as low as 1.1553 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move from 1.1553 and traded above the 1.1600 handle to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 1.1655 and is currently consolidating. On the downside, an initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1553 low to 1.1655 high. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1615 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1553 low to 1.1655 high. Therefore, there are chances of 1.1615 acting as a decent support and buy zone in the near term.

     

    Any corrections from the current levels toward the 1.1615 level can be considered as a buying opportunity, however, the pair needs to stay above the 1.1600 handle.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs Japanese Yen?

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs Japanese Yen?

    • – The Euro declined recently, but found support near 132.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 132.10 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Labor Cash Earnings report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5%, as there was an increase of 0.9% in the Labor Cash Earnings (YoY).

     

    Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings

    Today in Japan, the Labor Cash Earnings report for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.5% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +0.5%, as there was an increase of 0.9% in the Labor Cash Earnings in Sep 2017. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down from 0.7% to 0.9%.

     

    Later today, the Euro Zone’s retail sales figure for Sep 2017 will be released. An increase of more than 1% in sales (MoM) could help the Euro and EUR/JPY pair in gaining momentum in the near term.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro failed to break an important resistance area near 133.10-133.12 against the Japanese Yen and started a downside move. The EUR/JPY pair declined and broke a few important supports like 132.40-50 and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded towards 132.00 where buyers appeared. Moreover, a major bullish trend line with support near 132.10 on the hourly chart also protected further losses. It is currently recovering and trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.12 high to 131.99 low.

     

    On the upside, there is a major resistance near the 132.40 level followed by the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.12 high to 131.99 low at 132.56. The 100 hourly simple moving average is also at 132.65 to act as a resistance.

     

    Therefore, the pair might correct higher, but it will most likely face heavy sell offers near the 132.50 and 132.60 levels.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro fell sharply towards 1.1570 against the US Dollar before starting a short-term correction.
    • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.1635 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Oct 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 50.8 as there was a rise in the PMI from 50.6 to 51.2.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a rise in the PMI from the last reading of 50.6 to 50.8 in Oct 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 50.8 as there was a rise from 50.6 to 51.2 in the Caixin Services PMI. On the other hand, the Composite Output index fell from the last reading of 51.4 to 51.0. The report added:

     

    The softer increase in overall output was largely driven by a further slowdown in manufacturing production growth. Output at Chinese goods producers rose at only a marginal pace that was the weakest since June.

     

    The market sentiment improved after the result, and that’s why there are chances of further recoveries in EUR/USD, depending on how today’s US nonfarm payrolls come out.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro faced a lot of selling pressure this past week and declined below 1.1680 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1573 and later started a slow and steady upside correction above the 1.1600 handle.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1573 low, and also managed to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair seems to be following an ascending channel with support at 1.1635 on the hourly chart.

     

    At present, the Euro buyers are struggling to clear the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1573 low. It would need a close above 1.1700 for buyers to move back in control.

     

    Any dips from the current levels toward the 1.1630 level can be seen as a buying opportunity, but traders need to be very careful heading into the all-important US NFP Oct’s release today.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Nosedives Vs US Dollar Post ECB

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Nosedives Vs US Dollar Post ECB

    • – The Euro declined sharply and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar after the ECB interest rate decision.
    • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1770 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Sep 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.4%, as there was a rise in the index by 0.9% (MoM).

     

    German Import Price Index

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Import price index for Sep 2017 was released by Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in the price index by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of +0.4%, as there was a rise in the index by 0.9%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for an increase of 2.6% in the import price index in Sep 2017, and the actual was once again better as there was a rise of 3.0%. It was also higher compared with the last +2.1%.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher in the short term, but upsides are likely to be capped by the 1.1700 handle.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading towards the 1.1830 level found sellers and a bearish trend line against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move and traded below the 1.1800 support area. The downside move gained traction after the ECB interest rate decision, and the pair tumbled below 1.1750.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1770 on the hourly chart. It traded as low as 1.1624 and is current consolidating losses. On the upside, an initial hurdle is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1624 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is close to the 1.1700 handle and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1624 low.

     

    Therefore, any major rallies in the short term towards 1.1700 can be considered as selling opportunity.

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