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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro is in a downtrend and is trading below the 132.80 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production (MoM).

     

    Japan’s Industrial Production

    Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a rise of 2% compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 5.3%, which was less than the last +5.4%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization posted an increase of 3.3% in August 2017, which was more than the last decline of 1.8%.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair will most likely continue to move lower towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a decent rise above 133.00 against the Japanese Yen found sellers near 133.50. The EUR/JPY pair started a downside wave and broke a couple of important support levels such as 133.00 and 132.80.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    During the downside move, the pair also cleared a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was even a close below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high.

     

    At present, the pair is trading below the 132.25 support and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high. Therefore, there are chances of more declines in the near term, probably towards the last swing low of 131.85.

     

    On the upside, the broken support at 132.80 is now a major resistance along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro likely made a short-term top near 1.1878 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1% (MoM).

     

    German CPI

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in the CPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 1.8% in the CPI, and the actual was similar to the forecast and the last increase of 1.8%. The report added:

     

    Food prices in September 2017 rose 3.6% year on year, their increase being even larger than that of energy prices. In September 2017, above all edible fats and oils (+34.2%) were more expensive than a year earlier.

     

    The result was neutral, but might hold heavy losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1800 support in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro slowly and steadily moved higher and traded above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1840-1.1850 resistance before forming a short-term high at 1.1878.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair is currently trading near another bullish trend line with support at 1.1840 on the same chart. If sellers succeed in breaking the second bullish trend line, there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high at 1.1817.

     

    Overall, the pair remains supported for more gains as long as there is no close below the 1.1800 support area.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro declined recently and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6% (MoM).

     

    German Factory Orders

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in orders by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 4.7% in orders, but the actual was +7.8%. It was also way higher than the last increase of +5%. The report added:

     

    In August 2017, domestic orders increased by 2.7% and foreign orders by 4.3% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 1.0%, new orders from other countries increased 7.7% compared to July 2017.

     

    The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher towards 1.1730, but upsides are likely to remain capped.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined during the past few sessions after making a short-term top above 1.1770 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1740 and 1.1720 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.1685 and is currently attempting a short-term correction. On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low.

     

    However, the most important resistance is near 1.1740 and the 50% % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1750 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, it remains sell on rallies in the short term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently struggling to recover above 1.1800 against the US Dollar, and remains at risk.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8% (YoY).

     

    German Retail Sales

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in sales by 3.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.4% in sales, whereas the market was positioned for a 0.5% rise. The report added:

     

    According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in August 2017 was in real terms 2.8% and in nominal terms 4.7% larger than that in August 2016. The number of days open for sale was 27 in August 2017 and in August 2016.

     

    The result was negative and most likely to impact the EUR/USD pair and could push it below the 1.1750 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2000-1.1980 swing area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1860 and 1.1800 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1717 before starting a short-term correction. The pair has recovered and moved above the 1.1750 level. However, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2004 high to 1.1717 low is acting as a resistance.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart. The trend line resistance is just below the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.1800 level.

     

    Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1800 level and the 100 hourly SMA, it might decline once again below 1.1750.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro is under heavy selling pressure and already broke the 0.8800 support against the British Pound.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5.

     

    Italian Consumer Confidence

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the Confidence to 110.8.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5. All components registered an increase such as economic index was up from 129.3 to 143.9 and the personal index was up from 105.6 to 106.5. The report added that:

     

    The balance concerning expectations on unemployment fell from 30.5 to 11.7. The balance on inflation perceptions referring to the last 12 months decreased from -11.1 to -14.2 while the balance on inflation expectations for next 12 months grew from -9.5 to -3.8.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might continue to slide and could even break the 0.8754 low in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 0.8890 swing high against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8800 support zone and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.8754 from where a recovery was started. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high. However, the upside move was protected by the 0.8800 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, there are two bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart to act as a hurdle for more gains. An intermediate resistance is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might be considered as sell on rallies towards 0.8800-0.8820 as long as it is below 0.8840.

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  • EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The Euro faced heavy offers above the 134.30 level against the Japanese Yen and started a downside move.
    • – There was a break below two major bullish trend lines with support near 133.70 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for July 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was an increase of 0.8% in the index.

     

    Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index

    Today in Japan, the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for July 2017 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was an increase of 0.8% in the index. Looking at the Corporate Services Producer Price Index for all items excluding International transportation, there was an increase of 0.7% in July 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    Overall, the EUR/JPY pair under pressure and it is likely to decline further towards the 131.90-80 support levels.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a nice uptrend this past week and moved above the 134.00 handle against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded towards the 134.30-40 levels where it faced a key resistance, failed to break it and later started a downside move.

     

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

     

    The downside move was strong, as the pair broke two major bullish trend lines with support near 133.70 on the hourly chart. There was also a close below the 133.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    The pair traded as low as 131.91 and corrected towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 134.23 high to 131.91 low. The 132.40-50 levels are acting as a hurdle and preventing further recoveries.

     

    The pair is again moving lower and likely to gain pace towards 132.00. It might even break the 132.00 support and trade towards the recent low of 131.91. A break of 131.91 could take the pair towards the 131.80 level.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro after a sharp downside move towards the 1.1860 against the US Dollar found support.
    • – There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2. Moreover, the Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index surged to 56.7 from the last reading of 55.7, which is a 4-month high. Commenting on the same, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated:

     

    The eurozone economy ended the summer with a burst of activity, with the PMI signalling renewed impetus to already-impressive rates of growth of output, order books and employment during September.

     

    The result was positive, and would continue to help EUR/USD to remain above the 1.1950 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a test of the 1.2034 level against the US Dollar made a sharp downside move. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.2020 support and broke a major bullish trend line at 1.1990 on the hourly chart along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1860 from where it started a correction. The pair has recovered sharply and broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2034 high to 1.1860 low. There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a trend catalyst.

     

    On the upside, the most important resistance sits near 1.2000 and 1.2020. There is a chance of a reaction, but the overall trend is positive above 1.1970.

     

    As long as the pair is above 1.1970, one may consider buying in the short term, looking for a break above 1.2020.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

    EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Euro is currently trading below 1.1950 against the US Dollar, and struggling to gain momentum.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K.

     

    US Initial Jobless Claims

    Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for an increase in the claims from the last reading of 298K to 300K for the week ending Sep 9, 2017.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K. The 4-week moving average now stands at 263,250, which is around 13,000 more than the previous week’s unrevised average of 250,250. The report added that:

     

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending September 2, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.

     

    Moreover, the US CPI rate was also released, which exceeded forecast and came in at 1.9% (YoY), whereas the forecast was +1.8%.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro declined from the 1.2090 swing high against the US Dollar, and traded below the 1.2020 support area. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2000 level, 1.1950 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1837 from where it started a correction. The pair has already moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low. However, the pair faces many hurdles, including a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low is also acting as a resistance near 1.1920. Therefore, a break above 1.1920-1.1940 won’t be easy.

     

    As long as the pair is below the 1.1940, sellers remain in control and there can be a retest of 1.1850 in the near term.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Major Correction Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Major Correction Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro after a nasty ride towards 0.9300-0.9310 made a top against the British Pound.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair broke a major connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.9095 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the French Nonfarm Payrolls for Q2 2017 report was released by INSEE.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +0.5%, as there was a rise in payrolls by 0.4% (QoQ).

     

    French Nonfarm Payrolls

    Today in the Euro Zone, the French Nonfarm Payrolls for Q2 2017 report was released by INSEE. The market was positioned for an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +0.5%, as there was a rise in payrolls by 0.4%. Looking at the net payroll job creation, there was an increase of 0.3% to 81,400, which makes it the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. The report added that:

     

    The payroll employment increased by 76,800 in the private sector and by 4,600 in the public sector. Year on year, it rose by 303,500 net jobs (that is +1.2%): 276,300 jobs were created in the private sector and 27,200 jobs in the public service.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might continue to decline and could even break the 0.9060 support to test the 0.9040 level.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a super uptrend and traded above the 0.9280 resistance against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair traded well above the 0.9300 handle before it faced strong offers and started a downside move.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    There downside move was strong, as the pair broke many supports like 0.9250, 9200, 9180 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair recently cleared a crucial pivot zone at 0.9130 and the 0.9110 swing low.

     

    It seems like the pair might soon test the 1.618 Fib extension of the last wave from the 0.9117 low to 0.9202 high at 0.9064 low. If sellers remain in control, there can be even be a test of the 0.9040 support area.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair has started a major downside correction and could even test the 0.9000 handle in the near term.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back above 1.2000 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back above 1.2000 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro once again grabbed bids and moved above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
    • – There are two bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Trade Balance for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of €20.3B, as there was a trade surplus of €19.5B.

     

    German Trade Balance

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Trade Balance for July 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of €20.3B, compared with the last €21.2B.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of €20.3B, as there was a trade surplus of €19.5B. Exports of goods and services in July 2017 were up by 0.2%, lower than the forecast of 1.25%, but more than the last revised -2.70%. Imports of goods and services in July 2017 were up by 2.2%, lower than the forecast of 2.8%, but more than the last revised -4.4%. The report added that:

    The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017. In July 2016, the surplus amounted to 19.1 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain in the bullish zone and dips towards 1.2000 are seen as buying opportunity.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a dip towards the 1.1820 against the US Dollar regained bids and was able to move higher. The EUR/USD pair made a nice upside move and traded above 1.1920, 1.2020 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    These are positive signs and means the pair is back in the bullish zone above 1.2000. It recently traded as high as 1.2093 where it faced sellers and currently correcting lower. It has moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1929 low to 1.2092 high.

     

    On the downside, there are two bullish trend lines forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1929 low to 1.2092 high at 1.2011.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.2000 handle and the trend lines it remains in the bullish zone and can be bought on dips.

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