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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Back in Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro after a sharp downside move towards the 1.1860 against the US Dollar found support.
    • – There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

    Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Prelim) for Sep 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 57.1, as there was a rise in the PMI from 57.4 to 58.2. Moreover, the Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index surged to 56.7 from the last reading of 55.7, which is a 4-month high. Commenting on the same, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, stated:

     

    The eurozone economy ended the summer with a burst of activity, with the PMI signalling renewed impetus to already-impressive rates of growth of output, order books and employment during September.

     

    The result was positive, and would continue to help EUR/USD to remain above the 1.1950 support area.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a test of the 1.2034 level against the US Dollar made a sharp downside move. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.2020 support and broke a major bullish trend line at 1.1990 on the hourly chart along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    It traded as low as 1.1860 from where it started a correction. The pair has recovered sharply and broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2034 high to 1.1860 low. There is a monster ascending channel forming with support at 1.1970 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a trend catalyst.

     

    On the upside, the most important resistance sits near 1.2000 and 1.2020. There is a chance of a reaction, but the overall trend is positive above 1.1970.

     

    As long as the pair is above 1.1970, one may consider buying in the short term, looking for a break above 1.2020.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Retest 1.1820 Vs US Dollar

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Retest 1.1820 Vs US Dollar

    • – The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2069-70 swing high against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was no change in the PMI from 57.4.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4.

     

    The actual result was expected, as there was no change in the PMI from 57.4. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index on the other hand posted a decline from the last reading of 59.4 to 59.3. The German PMI report added that:

    German manufacturing posted a stronger performance in August following July’s slight loss of momentum, according to the latest PMI® survey data from IHS Markit and BME. Overall operating conditions improved at a pace close to the six-year highs seen in May and June. Output, new orders and new export business all rose more sharply than in July, with the latter expanding at the fastest rate since May 2010.

     

    Overall, the EUR/USD pair is likely to decline in the near term and could even retest the 1.1820 level in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a super uptrend and traded above the 1.2050 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a top near 1.2069-70 and later started correcting lower. It declined below the 1.2000 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is following a declining path and a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1890 on the hourly chart. It recently traded as low as 1.1821 and started correcting above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2069 high to 1.1821 low.

     

    However, the upside move was protected by the trend line resistance and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2069 high to 1.1821 low.

     

    As long as there is no close above the trend line resistance and 1.1900, the pair might continue to decline in the near term. A close above 1.1900 could take EUR/USD towards 1.1950.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downsides Limited Below 1.0760 Vs USD

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downsides Limited Below 1.0760 Vs USD

    • – The Euro made a nice move towards 1.0800 against the US Dollar recently.
    • – The EUR/USD pair during the upside broke a resistance near 1.0720 and a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
    • – Today, the Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted a rise from 55.1 to 55.2 in Jan 2017.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figure for Jan 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was aligned for no change from the last reading of 55.1 this month.

     

    However, the result was better, as there was a rise from the last reading of 55.1 to 55.2 in Jan 2017. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on the other hand, posted a decline from 56.5 to 56.4 in Jan 2017. The report on the Euro Zone MPMI mentioned that the “start of 2017 saw a marked improvement in business conditions at eurozone manufacturers. Output growth held steady at December’s 32-month record, underpinned by the strongest inflows of new business and the fastest job creation since the first half of 2011”.

     

    Overall, the results were stable, which means any corrections from the current levels in EUR/USD towards 1.0760 may find support on the downside.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro moved higher recently against the US Dollar and traded as high as 1.0812 where it found sellers. During the upside move, there was a break above a couple of major resistances like 1.0720 and 1.0750. There was also a break above a bearish trend line at 1.0750 on the 4-hours chart.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower, and about to test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0618 low to 1.0812 high. The 1.0766 level is a major support area since it acted as a resistance earlier, and might now stop the downside move below 1.0750.

     

    If at all, the downside move is extended, there is a chance of a move towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0618 low to 1.0812 high at 1.0715. Overall, the pair remains supported on the downside near levels like 1.0765, 1.0750 and 1.0720.

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  • EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

    EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

    • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8667 against the British Pound found sellers, and moved down.
    • – The EUR/GBP moved down sharply, and broke a major support trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart.
    • – The Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    The markets are mostly closed today, so there is no major release. In the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by the Markit Economics.

     

    The market was expecting no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016. The result was in line with the forecast, as there was no increase from the last reading of 54.9. Commenting on the report, the Chief Business Economist at HIS, Chris Williamson, stated “Eurozone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production. Policymakers will be doubly-pleased to see the manufacturing sector’s improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures”.

     

     

    There was no negative market sentiment for the Euro, so there is a chance that the shared currency may bounce back from the 0.8500 support against the British Pound.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro made a nice attempt to break the 0.8680 barrier against the British Pound, but failed near 0.8660. The EUR/GBP pair started moving down, and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

     

    The pair recently traded below a major bullish trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart. However, the pair is currently finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

     

    So, there is a chance that the recent break is false, and the pair may bounce back from the 0.8500 support. The EUR/GBP pair is also above the 100 simple moving average (H4 chart), which is a positive sign. If at all there are more declines, then the pair can test the 0.8460 support area in the short term. The H4 RSI has moved below the 50 level, calling for a bearish break.

     

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  • EURUSD – Euro Heading Towards A Major Break?

    EURUSD – Euro Heading Towards A Major Break?

    • Euro after a brutal fall against the US Dollar after the Brexit outcome found support near 1.0900.
    • There is currently a contracting triangle pattern forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD, which may ignite the next break in the near term.
    • The Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted a rise from the last reading of 52.6 to 52.8 in June 2016.

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector was reported by the Markit Economics.

     

    The market was not expecting any change in the PMI from 52.6 in June 2016. However, the result was a bit better, as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased from 52.6 to 52.8 in June 2016.

     

    The report released by the Markit Economics, stated “recovery in the eurozone manufacturing sector gathered momentum in June. Growth of both production and new orders accelerated to the fastest in the year so far, taking the respective rates of expansion during the second quarter as a whole a tick above those achieved in quarter one”.

     

    In short, there is a reason for the Euro to gain pace in the short term versus the US Dollar.

     

    EUR/USD Price Analysis

    The EUR/USD fell sharply after the UK exit news from the European Union, and traded as low as 1.0911 against the US dollar.

    EUR/USD Price Analysis

    However, it started to recover and slowly retraced higher. The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1426 high to 1.0911 low, and currently finding sellers around the 38.2% Fib level of the same wave.

     

    The most important point is that there is a contracting triangle pattern forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD, which may play a major role in the short term.

     

    The pair is also above the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is a bullish sign and might push it higher moving ahead.

     

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