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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro at Risk of More Declines Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro at Risk of More Declines Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro started a new downside wave from the 0.9020 swing high against the British Pound.
    • – There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8900 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
    • – Recently in the Euro Area, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 (Prelim) was released by the European Commission.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of -1.1, as there was a rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.0.

     

    Euro Area Consumer Confidence

    Recently in the Euro Area, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 (Prelim) was released by the European Commission. The market was positioned for a minor rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of -1.1, as there was a rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.0. Looking at the European Union Consumer Confidence, there was no change in the index from -1.6 in Oct 2017 compared to September 2017.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair was not impressed and remains in the bearish zone below the 0.8920-00 resistance area.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a solid upside move above the 0.9000 handle found offers against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair traded as high as 0.9022 before starting a new downside wave. It declined and broke the 0.8950 support along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8856 low to 0.9022 high, which is a bearish signal in the short term. There was even a break below a short-term bullish trend line at 0.8970 on the hourly chart to ignite a downside wave.

     

    At the moment, the pair is attempting a close below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8856 low to 0.9022 high. Therefore, there are high chances of it moving back towards the last swing low of 0.8856.

     

    On the upside, there is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8900 on the hourly chart. Selling rallies in the short term can be opted with a stop above 0.8930.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro is under heavy selling pressure and already broke the 0.8800 support against the British Pound.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5.

     

    Italian Consumer Confidence

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the Confidence to 110.8.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5. All components registered an increase such as economic index was up from 129.3 to 143.9 and the personal index was up from 105.6 to 106.5. The report added that:

     

    The balance concerning expectations on unemployment fell from 30.5 to 11.7. The balance on inflation perceptions referring to the last 12 months decreased from -11.1 to -14.2 while the balance on inflation expectations for next 12 months grew from -9.5 to -3.8.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might continue to slide and could even break the 0.8754 low in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 0.8890 swing high against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8800 support zone and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.8754 from where a recovery was started. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high. However, the upside move was protected by the 0.8800 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, there are two bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart to act as a hurdle for more gains. An intermediate resistance is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might be considered as sell on rallies towards 0.8800-0.8820 as long as it is below 0.8840.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Major Correction Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Major Correction Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro after a nasty ride towards 0.9300-0.9310 made a top against the British Pound.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair broke a major connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.9095 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the French Nonfarm Payrolls for Q2 2017 report was released by INSEE.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of +0.5%, as there was a rise in payrolls by 0.4% (QoQ).

     

    French Nonfarm Payrolls

    Today in the Euro Zone, the French Nonfarm Payrolls for Q2 2017 report was released by INSEE. The market was positioned for an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of +0.5%, as there was a rise in payrolls by 0.4%. Looking at the net payroll job creation, there was an increase of 0.3% to 81,400, which makes it the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. The report added that:

     

    The payroll employment increased by 76,800 in the private sector and by 4,600 in the public sector. Year on year, it rose by 303,500 net jobs (that is +1.2%): 276,300 jobs were created in the private sector and 27,200 jobs in the public service.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might continue to decline and could even break the 0.9060 support to test the 0.9040 level.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a super uptrend and traded above the 0.9280 resistance against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair traded well above the 0.9300 handle before it faced strong offers and started a downside move.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    There downside move was strong, as the pair broke many supports like 0.9250, 9200, 9180 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair recently cleared a crucial pivot zone at 0.9130 and the 0.9110 swing low.

     

    It seems like the pair might soon test the 1.618 Fib extension of the last wave from the 0.9117 low to 0.9202 high at 0.9064 low. If sellers remain in control, there can be even be a test of the 0.9040 support area.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair has started a major downside correction and could even test the 0.9000 handle in the near term.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Upside Break above 0.9220 Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Upside Break above 0.9220 Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro after trading as low as 0.9149 against the British Pound started an upside move.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair is currently attempting an upside break above a major bearish trend line at 0.9215 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for August 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast, as there was a rise in sales by 1.3% (YoY).

     

    BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales

    Today in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for August 2017 was released. The market was positioned for an increase in sales by around 1% compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast, as there was a rise in sales by 1.3%, which was even higher by the last reading of 0.9%. The Total Retail Sales were up by 2.4% in August 2017 compared with the same month a year ago. Commenting on the sales figures, the Chief Executive, BRC, Helen Dickinson OBE, stated:

    August provided a welcome pick-up in retail sales across channels, with Non-Food returning to growth as shoppers’ attentions turned to homewares, autumn clothing ranges and the new school term.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair remains in the bullish zone and looking to gain momentum for a rise above 0.9220 in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro after trading a few pips above the 0.9300 handle against the British Pound started a correction. The EUR/GBP pair traded as low as 0.9149 and then started moving higher. It has already traded above the 0.9180 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    There was even a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9306 high to 0.9149 low. On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line at 0.9215 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a barrier for buyers.

     

    The pair needs a close above the trend line resistance at 0.9215 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9306 high to 0.9149 low at 0.9227 to gain traction.

     

    Therefore, a proper close above 0.9220-0.9230 would open the doors for further gains may be towards 0.9300 in the near term.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Correcting Lower Towards 0.8920 Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Correcting Lower Towards 0.8920 Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8994 against the British Pound started a downside move.
    • – There are two important bullish trend lines with support near 0.8910 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/GBP.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 (Preliminary) was released by the Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast, as there was a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 56.8.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 (Preliminary) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.2.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast, as there was a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 56.8. Moreover, the headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI was down for the second time and now sits at 55.8. The report added that:

    Despite coming off recent highs, the index remained at an elevated level by historical standards and signaled one of the strongest expansions seen over the past six years.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair may correct a few pips towards 0.8820-10, but likely to gain bids on the downside.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro was in a solid uptrend from the 0.8700 swing low against the British Pound and traded above the 0.8800 handle. The uptrend in the EUR/GBP pair was such that the pair even traded close to the 0.9000 handle.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    A high was formed near 0.8994 where the pair faced strong offers and a correction wave was initiated. The pair is now below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8833 low to 0.8994 high.

     

    On the downside, there are two important bullish trend lines with support near 0.8910 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/GBP along with the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, the 0.8915 level is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8833 low to 0.8994 high.

     

    So, if the pair continues to move down, there can be strong buy zones near 0.8825, 0.8820 and 0.8810 in the short term.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Forming Double Top Vs British Pound?

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Forming Double Top Vs British Pound?

    • – The Euro jumped higher after testing an important support area at 0.8660 against the British Pound.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair is currently following a nice bullish trend line at 0.8725 on the hourly chart.
    • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the CPI for May 2017 released by the Eurostat posted an increase of 1.4% (YoY), less than the forecast of 1.5% (Preliminary).

     

    Euro Zone CPI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Preliminary CPI for May 2017 was released by the Eurostat. The market was positioned for an increase of 1.5% in the CPI in May 2017 (Preliminary), compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast, as the Euro Zone CPI increased 1.4%. On the other hand, the Core Euro Zone CPI came in at 1%, just as the market expected. The report stated that “energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (4.6%, compared with 7.6% in April), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.5%, stable compared with April), services (1.3%, compared with 1.8% in April) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with April).”

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair may find it difficult to hold gains above 0.8700, but the 0.8720 support holds the key in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro after testing the 0.8750 resistance once against the British Pound moved down sharply. However, the EUR/GBP pair managed to hold losses below the 0.8660 support and started recovering.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair moved up and broke the 0.8680 resistance along with the 100 hourly simple moving average. The upside move was such that the pair retested the 0.8750 resistance, which is once again acting as a barrier for further gains.

     

    On the downside, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8655 low to 0.8754 high can be seen as a major support. It also coincides with a nice bullish trend line at 0.8725 on the hourly chart. As long as the pair is above the trend line support at 0.8720, there is a chance of a break of 0.8750. On the other hand, a break below 0.8700 could increase the chances of a double top pattern, which may take the EUR/GBP pair well below 0.8660.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Trend Overwhelmingly Bullish Vs Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Trend Overwhelmingly Bullish Vs Pound

    • – The Euro soared higher and moved above the 0.8530 resistance area against the British Pound.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair recently broke a major ascending channel at 0.8525 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Economic Sentiment for May 2017 published by the ZEW posted a rise from 19.5 to 20.6.

     

    German Economic Sentiment Indicator

    In the Euro Zone today, the German Economic Sentiment for May 2017 was published by the ZEW. The market was positioned for the Index to post an increase from 19.5 to 22.0.

     

    However, the result was a bit on the lower side, as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment posted a rise from 19.5 to 20.6. On the other hand, the Current Situation indicator posted a rise from 80.1 to 83.9, more than the forecast of 82.0. The report added that “Taken together, the assessment of the current situation and the economic sentiment show a positive outlook for the German economic growth in the coming six months.”

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair is gaining pace and may continue to post further upsides towards 0.8600 in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro surged higher and was able to break many hurdles like 0.8500 and 0.8530 against the British Pound. The EURGBP pair after trading towards 0.8400 formed a base and started a solid upside move with good momentum.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair climbed and broke the 100 hourly simple moving average at 0.8420 to initiate the trend. It also formed major ascending channel on the hourly chart, and later cleared it at 0.8525 to open the doors for more gains.

     

    The pair recently tested the 0.8565 resistance and faced offers. So, there is a chance of a minor dip towards the broken channel support at 0.8540 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8457 low to 0.8566 high. If the correction extends, then the pair may test the 0.8510 support zone.It also represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8457 low to 0.8566 high.

     

    So, the overall trend remains bullish for EUR/GBP and it may head higher towards 0.8580-0.8600.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Broke Major Support Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Broke Major Support Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro after trading a few pips above 0.8500 against the British Pound failed and moved down.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair traded lower and broke a major bullish trend line at 0.8455 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders for March 2017 (MoM) released by the Deutsche Bundesbank posted a rise of 1%, more than the forecast of 0.8%.

     

    German Factory Orders

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders for March 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for the factory orders to increase by 0.8% in March 2017, compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the result was a lot better than the market forecast, as the factory orders posted an increase of 1%. The last reading was also revised up from 3.4% to 3.5%. When we look at the yearly change in the factory orders, then there was a rise of 2.4%, which was less than the last revised reading of 4.7%. The report stated that the “domestic orders decreased by 3.8% while foreign orders increased by 4.8% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 6.8% on the previous month, new orders from other countries increased 3.5% compared to February 2017”.

     

    Overall, the result was above the forecast, but the Euro may remain under pressure, and EUR/GBP could further decline towards 0.8420 in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro slowly moved higher and traded towards 0.8508 against the British Pound. There was no proper close above 0.8500 in EUR/GBP, resulting in a downside move. The pair traded lower and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8404 low to 0.8508 high.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The downside was extended, as the pair fell below the 100 hourly simple moving average, and also broke a major bullish trend line at 0.8455 on the hourly chart. Later, it also cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8404 low to 0.8508 high.

     

    Clearly, the pair is under pressure, and may continue to decline towards 0.8420. If there is a correction from the current levels, the EUR/GBP pair may face resistance near 0.8455 or 0.8460. On the downside, a close below 0.8440 might take the pair towards 0.8420 or 0.8400.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs British Pound?

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs British Pound?

    • – The Euro after failing near the 0.8788 level against the British Pound moved down.
    • – The EUR/GBP pair is currently trading near a bullish trend line with support at 0.8650 on the 4-hours chart.
    • – The German Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a rise of 0.2% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

     

    German Producer Price Index

    Today in the Euro Zone, the German Producer Price Index for Feb 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was expecting the average changes in prices in the German primary markets to increase by +0.2% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

     

    The outcome in line with the forecast, as the German Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in Feb 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 3.1% in Feb 2017, compared with Feb 2016. It was more than the forecast of +2.9%, and more than the last +2.4%. The report mentioned that “Energy prices increased by 5.4%, though prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of petroleum products increased by 22.7%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 7.5%’.

     

    Overall, the result was better for the Euro, which may help EUR/GBP in gaining bids near 0.8650 in the short term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The British Pound struggled a lot against the Euro, as EUR/GBP climbed above a couple of important resistances like 0.8600 and 0.8700. The pair traded towards 0.8800, but failed to break the 0.8788 level. There were two attempts to clear 0.8788, but the Euro buyers failed to surpass it.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

     

    As a result, there was a downside move, and the pair moved below 0.8750. Later, it broke a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 0.8720. And, finally there was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8402 low to 0.8788 high.

     

    At the moment, the pair is trading near a bullish trend line with support at 0.8650 on the 4-hours chart. The same trend line is also above the 100 hourly simple moving average at 0.8640. So, we can say that the pair is trading above a major support at 0.8650-0.8640. It might bounce or break it for more losses.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Continue Higher Vs Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Continue Higher Vs Pound

    • – The Euro gained heavy bids against the British Pound during the past few days and moved above 0.8500.
    • – There was a break above 0.8450 and a major bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of EUR/GBP.
    • – The Euro Zone Services sentiment indicator for Feb 2017 released by European Commission posted a rise from the last revised reading of 12.8 to 13.8.

     

    Euro Zone Services Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence

    In the Euro Zone, the Services sentiment index and the consumer confidence for Feb 2017 were released by European Commission. The forecast was no change in the Services sentiment index from 13.5 in Jan 2017.

     

    However, the result was on the higher side, as the Services sentiment index rose from the last revised reading of 12.8 to 13.8. On the other hand, the consumer confidence remained stable at -6.2. Earlier, the Euro Zone’s M3 Money Support report for Jan 2017 was released by the European Central Bank. The result was also positive, as there was an increase of 4.9% in Jan 2017 (YoY), more than the forecast of 4.8%.

     

    Overall, the Euro has few reasons to decline, which is why the EUR/GBP pair remains buy on dips near 0.8475.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro had a decent upside run against the British Pound during the past few days, as it moved above 0.8450 and 0.8500. During the upside move, the EUR/GBP pair managed to clear 0.8450 and a major bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart. The pair traded as high as 0.8533 where it found resistance, and started a downside move.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

     

    The highlighted resistance area near 0.8530 is important, since it acted as a pivot area earlier. So, there is a chance of a short-term correction. An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8421 low to 0.8533 high.

     

    However, the most important support on the downside is near 0.8464, as it coincides with the 100 simple moving average (H4). It also overlaps with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8421 low to 0.8533 high. Overall, if the pair corrects lower, the levels like 0.8480 and 0.8460 might act as a strong buy zone.

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