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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downsides Limited Below 1.0760 Vs USD

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Downsides Limited Below 1.0760 Vs USD

    • – The Euro made a nice move towards 1.0800 against the US Dollar recently.
    • – The EUR/USD pair during the upside broke a resistance near 1.0720 and a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
    • – Today, the Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted a rise from 55.1 to 55.2 in Jan 2017.

     

    Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figure for Jan 2017 was released by the Markit Economics. The market was aligned for no change from the last reading of 55.1 this month.

     

    However, the result was better, as there was a rise from the last reading of 55.1 to 55.2 in Jan 2017. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on the other hand, posted a decline from 56.5 to 56.4 in Jan 2017. The report on the Euro Zone MPMI mentioned that the “start of 2017 saw a marked improvement in business conditions at eurozone manufacturers. Output growth held steady at December’s 32-month record, underpinned by the strongest inflows of new business and the fastest job creation since the first half of 2011”.

     

    Overall, the results were stable, which means any corrections from the current levels in EUR/USD towards 1.0760 may find support on the downside.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro moved higher recently against the US Dollar and traded as high as 1.0812 where it found sellers. During the upside move, there was a break above a couple of major resistances like 1.0720 and 1.0750. There was also a break above a bearish trend line at 1.0750 on the 4-hours chart.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower, and about to test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0618 low to 1.0812 high. The 1.0766 level is a major support area since it acted as a resistance earlier, and might now stop the downside move below 1.0750.

     

    If at all, the downside move is extended, there is a chance of a move towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0618 low to 1.0812 high at 1.0715. Overall, the pair remains supported on the downside near levels like 1.0765, 1.0750 and 1.0720.

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  • EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Dollar Remains Elevated Above 1.0650

    EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Dollar Remains Elevated Above 1.0650

    • – The Euro after trading towards 1.0600 against the US Dollar found support and moved higher.
    • – There is a crucial contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD, which acted as a support near 1.0600, and has resistance near 1.0740.
    • – Earlier today, the German Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a rise of 0.4% in Dec 2016, same as the forecast of +0.4%.

     

    German Producer Price Index and Chinese GDP

    Today, the German Producer Price Index report was published by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The expectation was a 0.4% rise in the index in Dec 2016, compared with the previous month.

     

    The result was as forecasted, and even the yearly change was in line with the market expectation of a 1% rise in Dec 2016, compared with Dec 2015. Earlier today, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report was published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

     

    The market was aligned for an increase of 6.7% in the GDP in Q4 2016, but it posted 6.8%. So, the market sentiment improved post the result, which means there is a chance of the EUR/USD pair gaining bids in the near term.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro is an uptrend against the US dollar, and the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD clearly highlights the same, as the pair is above the 1.0600 support area. There was a dip recently from the 1.0715 high, but the stated support acted as a barrier and prevented a downside move near 1.0600.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

     

    The EUR/USD pair is currently moving higher, and already broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0718 high to 1.0588 low. So, there is a chance of the pair trading close to the full high of 1.0718 or 1.0700.

     

    There is a crucial contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with support near 1.0600 and resistance near 1.0740. It would be interesting to see whether the pair keeps rising and tests the highlighted triangle resistance near 1.0740.

     

    The same triangle resistance also coincides with the 1.236 extension of the last decline from the 1.0718 high to 1.0588 low. So, it may act as a critical resistance area.

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  • USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

    USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

    • – The US Dollar declined recently against the Japanese yen, and even traded below the 115.00 support area.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line on the upside at 115.40-155.60 on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.
    • – Earlier today, the Japanese New Machinery orders, released by the Cabinet Office posted an increase of 10.4% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

     

    Japanese New Machinery Orders

    There were no major economic releases in the US lately, and none lined up today due to Martin L. King’s Birthday bank holiday. In Japan today, the New Machinery orders figure was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was expecting an increase of 8.1% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

     

    However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was an increase of 10.4% in the total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decrease of 5.1%, which missed the mark when compared with the forecast of -1.7%.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, but there was not major impact on the Japanese yen. It continued to gain traction vs the US Dollar, and was seen trading towards 114.00.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar struggled a lot lately against the Japanese yen, as it fell below the 116.00 and 115.00 support area. The most important thing was a break below the 115.30 support area, which later acted as a resistance and prevented an upside move.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

     

    The pair already tested the 1.618 extension of the last wave from the 115.06 low to 117.54 high, but there is no sign of a major recovery. There are many hurdles on the way up like near 115.40-155.60 in the form of a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.

     

    Furthermore, an initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low. However, the most important hurdle is near 115.30, coinciding with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low.

     

    In short, the pair looks like heading lower, and may head towards 113.60 once again.

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  • EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

    EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

    • – The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar from the 1.0400 low, and moved towards 1.0600.
    • – The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a major resistance near 1.0600 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart.
    • – In the Euro Zone today, the German Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted an increase of 3.2% in Nov 2016.

     

    German Retail Sales

    In the Euro Zone today, the Retail Sales figure, which is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland for Nov 2016.

     

    The market was expecting no major increase in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the result was positive, as there was a rise of 3.2%, which was a lot more than the last decline of -0.8% (revised). In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 2.5%, which was disappointing. The report added that the “estimation is based on data for the first eleven months of 2016. In this period retail turnover was in real terms 1.9% and in nominal terms 2.2% larger than that in the corresponding period of the previous year”.

     

    Overall, the result was not impressive enough to lift the Euro further against the US Dollar, as it continued to face sellers near 1.0620.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded positively recently against the US Dollar after forming a bottom near 1.0339. The EUR/USD pair moved higher, and broke the 100 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart for a move above 1.0500.

     

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

     

    The pair is currently facing a major hurdle near 1.0600-20 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart. The trend lines are important, as a break above them may open the doors for an upside move towards 1.0700.

     

    I think there is a chance that the pair may correct towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0339 low to 1.0614 high where it may find support. Overall, the trend is positive for the Euro and any major dips from the current levels may find support near 1.0550 and 1.0520.

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  • USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

    USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

    • – The US Dollar after a decline towards the 116.04 level against the Japanese yen started correcting higher.
    • – The USD/JPY pair is currently moving higher, but facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.
    • – This week in Japan, the National Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Bureau posted an increase of 0.5% in Nov 2016 (YoY).

     

    Japanese National Consumer Price Index

    This week in Japan, there were a few important economic releases. The most important one was the National Consumer Price Index by the Statistics Bureau. The market was not expecting any major increase above 0.2% in the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services in Nov 2016 (YoY).

     

    However, the result was better compared with the forecast, as there was a rise of 0.5%. However, when we have a look at the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, there was no chance in the index. The last reading was +0.5%. So, we can say that the result was mixed, but the Japanese yen gained traction during the past few days.

     

    There can be a correction phase initiated in Japanese yen, but the USD/JPY pair is currently facing sellers near 116.85-90. So, it would be interesting to see how the pair will trade in the short term.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The US dollar made a downside move recently against the Japanese yen to break the 117.00 support area. The USD/JPY pair during the downside also broke a bullish trend line at 117.70 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

     

    The pair traded as low as 116.04 where it found buyers and started correcting higher. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. However, the pair is facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.

     

    The stated level was a support earlier, and now acting as a resistance. The same level also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. There are already two rejections near the same area, and the pair may soon attempt a break above it. If the bulls succeed, there can be a move towards 117.20. Else, there can be a downside move back towards 116.45.

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