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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Trading In Range Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Trading In Range Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar struggled to move above 1.2900-1.2910 against the Canadian Dollar, and declined.
    • – There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2835 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Ivey PMI for April 2018 was released by the Richard Ivey School of Business.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 60.2 as there was a sharp rise in the PMI to 71.5 (s.a.).

     

    Canada’s Ivey PMI

    Recently in Canada, the Ivey PMI for April 2018 was released by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The market was positioned for a rise from the last reading of 59.8 to 60.2.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 60.2 as there was a sharp rise in the PMI to 71.5 (s.a.). The employment index came in at 57.0, inventories index at 52.4 and Prices index at 67.8.

     

    The USD/CAD pair remained confined in a range above the 1.2800 support and it seems like it is preparing for the next move.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar made a few attempts to break the 1.2910-20 resistance area against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair failed to settle above 1.2910 and started a downside move from the 1.2917 swing high.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair declined and traded below the 1.2880 support level, but the decline was protected by the 1.2840 support. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2835 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.

     

    The pair may correct higher in the short term above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2917 high to 1.2839 low. However, the broad picture suggests that the pair is trading in a wide range above the 1.2800 support.

     

    On the downside, supports are at 1.2840, 1.2820 and 1.2800. On the flip side, resistances are at 1.2900, 1.2910 and 1.2920. A break on either end above 1.2920 or below 1.2800 could open the doors for the next move in the near term. The current price action is slightly bearish, suggesting a chance of a dip towards the 1.2800 support zone.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains Supported Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar bounced back from the 1.2530 support level against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2590 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (March 2018) was announced by the Bank of Canada.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was no change in the interest rates from 1.25%.

     

    BoC Interest Rate Decision

    Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (March 2018) was announced by the Bank of Canada. The market was positioned for no change in the interest rates from 1.25% in March 2018.

     

    However, the actual result was around the forecast as there was no change in the interest rates from 1.25%. The Bank Rate was kept at 1.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 1 per cent. The report added that:

     

    Inflation in Canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected. In Canada, GDP growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 per cent average growth in the first half of 2018.

     

    The USD/CAD pair moved higher after the report, but the upside was capped by the 1.2660 level.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar formed a decent support near the 1.2520-30 area against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair bounced sharply and traded above the 1.2550 and 1.2580 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2590 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD. The pair traded close to the 1.2660 level where it faced a strong selling interest.

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and testing the 1.2620 support along with the 38% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2548 low to 1.2659 high. However, there is a strong support at 1.2600 and the 50% Fib level of the stated wave.

     

    Therefore, if the pair corrects lower further, it is likely to find buyers near the 1.2600 level in the near term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains at Risk Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains at Risk Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar started a downside move from the 1.2750-60 resistance area against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2510 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Statistics Canada.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.4% as there was an increase of 0.7% in the CPI (MoM).

     

    Canadian CPI

    Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.4% in the CPI in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 0.4% as there was an increase of 0.7% in the CPI. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.7% in the CPI, more than the forecast of 1.4%. The report added that:

     

    Consumers paid 3.2% more for transportation in January, following a 4.9% increase in December. Growth in this index was moderated by the purchase of passenger vehicles index, which increased less on a year-over-year basis in January (+1.4%) than in December (+3.7%). Gasoline prices rose 7.8% in January, after a 12.2% gain in December.

     

    The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bearish zone and it may even break the 1.2600 support for more declines in the near term.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar traded higher this past week and moved above the 1.2700 handle against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair traded towards the 1.2750-60 resistance area where sellers defended further gains, and the pair started a downside move.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    A downside move was initiated and the pair traded below the 1.2700 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2510 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair traded as low as 1.2609 and corrected higher to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2757 high to 1.2609. It failed to move higher and it is currently declining.

     

    It seems like the pair may continue to decline and it could even break the 1.2609 low and 1.2600 for further slides in the near term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar is likely forming a short-term top near the 1.2685 level against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K.

     

    Canadian Net Employment Change

    Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for a change of 10K in Dec 2017 compared with the last change of 78.6K.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K. Moreover, the last reading was also revised down from 78.6K to -2.4K. More importantly, there was a rise in the employment rate from 5.7% to 5.9%. The report added that:

     

    Following two months of increases, employment fell by 88,000 in January. Part-time employment declined (-137,000), while full-time employment was up (+49,000). At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%.

     

    The USD/CAD pair spiked above the 1.2650 level, but it faced sellers near 1.2685 level and declined later.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar was in a major uptrend this past week as it moved above the 1.2600 level against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair gained traction and traded as high as 1.2685 where it faced a strong selling interest.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair started a downside move and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair traded below the 1.2560 support and is currently testing the 100 hourly simple moving average. It may soon test or even break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high at 1.2540.

     

    Below 1.2540, the pair may decline further and it could retest the 1.2500 support area. On the upside, the 1.2580 and 1.2600 levels are important resistances for an upward move.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Tumbles Vs Canadian Dollar Post BoC

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Tumbles Vs Canadian Dollar Post BoC

    • – The US Dollar fell sharply below the 1.2350 support against the Canadian Dollar.
    • – There is a major descending channel pattern with resistance near 1.2350 forming on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (Sep 2017) was announced by the Bank of Canada.
    • – The central bank opted to increase the interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00%, whereas the market was not expecting any increase.

     

    BoC Interest Rate Decision

    Recently in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (Sep 2017) was announced by the Bank of Canada. The market was positioned for no change in the interest rates in Sep 2017 from the last 0.75%.

     

    However, the central bank opted to increase the interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00%. As per the central bank statement, there was a strong recovery and pick up in the economic data, which made them to form a view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. The report added that:

    Given the stronger-than-expected economic performance, Governing Council judges that today’s removal of some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus in place is warranted.

     

    The USD/CAD pair dropped immediately and broke a few support levels like 1.2300, and looks set to decline further.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar started a major downtrend from the 1.2660 high against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair traded lower by more than 200 pips and broke many support levels such as 1.2450, 1.2400 and 1.2300.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair even moved below the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 1.2200 handle. A low was formed at 1.2135 from where the pair started a recovery. It has already moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2414 high to 1.2135 low.

     

    It seems like the pair is facing resistance near 1.2240 and consolidating losses at the moment. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2414 high to 1.2135 low at 1.2242 is also acting as a barrier for buyers.

     

    Moreover, there is a major descending channel pattern with resistance near 1.2350 forming on the hourly chart of USD/CAD. As long as the pair is below the 1.2350-1.2400 resistance, it would continue to decline in the near term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Could Extend Declines Vs Canadian Dollar

    • The US Dollar moved down and traded below a major support area at 1.3200-10 against the Canadian Dollar.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3220 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • Recently in the US, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June 2017 released by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond posted a rise from 1 to 7.

     

    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June 2017 was released by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The market was positioned for an increase from the last reading of 1 to 4 in June 2017.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase from 1 to 7. The report added that “Among the indexes for expected activity, only two fell: the capital expenditures index declined from 34 in May to 26 in June and the expected shipments metric inched down from 39 to 38.”

     

    The impact on the USD/CAD pair was minimal, and it looks like USD/CAD may soon break 1.3140 for further declines in the near term.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar after trading a few pips above the 1.3300 handle against the Canadian Dollar faced sellers and moved down. The downside move was strong, as the USD/CAD pair broke a major support area near 1.3200-20 on the hourly chart.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair even moved very far from the 1.3200 support and the 100 simple moving average to trade as low as 1.3146. The pair recently corrected higher and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3259 high to 1.3146 low.

     

    The upside move was protected by support turned resistance near 1.3220 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3259 high to 1.3146 low. The pair is once again heading lower and may soon retest the last swing low of 1.3146.

     

    On the upside, the 1.3220-00 levels may continue to prevent gains along with the 100 hourly SMA. Moreover, there a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3220 forming on the hourly chart, which can be seen as a sell zone in the short term.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Reaching Important Support Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Reaching Important Support Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar struggled lately against the Canadian Dollar, and declined below 1.3460.
    • – There is a major contracting triangle pattern formed with support at 1.3430 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
    • – Recently in Canada, the Ivey PMI (s.a.) for May 2017 released by the Richard Ivey School of Business posted a decline from 62.4 to 53.8.

     

    Canada’s Ivey PMI

    Recently in Canada, the Ivey PMI (s.a.) for May 2017 was released by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The market was positioned for a minor decrease from the last reading of 62.4 to 62.0.

     

    However, the actual result was disappointing, as there was a decline to 53.8, and Ivey PMI just managed to post an expansion. The Ivey Employment Index was down from the last reading of 53.7 to 50.4, and Prices Index was down to 51.3 from 70.9. On the other hand, the Ivey Inventories Index posted a rise from 46.5 to 56.5.

     

    The result was not what the market expected, which means there is a chance of a bounce towards 1.3455 in USD/CAD in the near term.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar maintained a bearish bias against the Canadian Dollar and traded below the 1.3480 and 1.3460 support levels. The USD/CAD pair even moved below the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards the 1.3435 support zone.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    At present the pair is following a major declining contracting triangle pattern formed with support at 1.3430 on the hourly chart. There is a crucial support area near 1.3430-40, which stopped downsides earlier as well. The pair is currently recovering, and attempting a close above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3486 high to 1.3435 low.

     

    It won’t be easy for buyers to push the pair above the contracting triangle resistance at 1.3460. It also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3486 high to 1.3435 low. However, the 1.3430 support holds the key. As long as there is no break below 1.3420-00, the pair may attempt an upside break above the 1.3460 resistance to start a substantial recovery towards 1.3500.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

    • – The US Dollar after a solid run towards 1.3500 against the Canadian Dollar found resistance.
    • – The USD/CAD pair is moving down, and broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart.
    • – Later today, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada, which is expected to rise by 1.8% (YoY).

     

    Canadian Consumer Price Index

    Today in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada. The market is positioned for an increase of 1.8% in the CPI in March 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

     

    The forecast of +1.8% is lower compared to the last +2%. However, when we look at the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index in Canada, the forecast is of +0.4% in March 2017. This is better compared with the last +0.2%. I think the market is positioned for better results.

     

    And, considering the fact that the market is expecting an improvement, there is selling interest noted in USD/CAD, as the pair broke a few supports at 1.3480.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar surged higher this week against the Canadian Dollar, and moved above 1.3350 and 1.3450. The USD/CAD pair even broke the 1.236 extension of the last fall from the 1.3410 high to 1.3260 low, which is a positive sign.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Canadian Dollar

     

    The USD/CAD pair recently traded close to the 1.3500 resistance where it faced sellers and moved down. During the downside move, the pair broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is approaching the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high.

     

    We need to see if the pair can hold the stated fib level at 1.3454 or not. A break below may call for more declines towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high at 1.3427. Today’s Canadian CPI release may be a game changer. We should keep a close eye on 1.3420 as a support, and 1.3500 as a crucial resistance.

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  • USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar In Trouble Vs Canadian Dollar

    USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar In Trouble Vs Canadian Dollar

    • – The US Dollar declined this week vs the Canadian dollar and moved below 1.3100 support.
    • – There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of USD/CAD with support at 1.2960.
    • – Today’s US nonfarm payrolls release by the US Department of Labor might impact the USD/CAD pair since it is approaching a break with resistance at 1.3050.

     

    US Non-farm Productivity and NFP

    Recently, the Non-farm Productivity, which shows the output per Hour of labor worked was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting an increase of 1% (preliminary) in the Non-farm Productivity in Q4 2016, compared with the previous quarter.

     

    However, the result was better, as there was a rise of 1.3% in Q4 2016. The last reading was also revised up from 3.1% to 3.5%. Moreover, the report added that “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.3-percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2016”. So, overall, the result was positive. Today, there is a major release, as the US nonfarm payrolls report will be published by the US Department of Labor.

     

    The market is looking for a stable reading of 175K, up from the last 156K. A positive outcome may help USD/CAD in breaking the 1.3050 resistance, else there can be a downside break as well.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar faced a lot of selling pressure against the Canadian dollar this week, and traded towards 1.2960. The USD/CAD somehow recovered from 1.2968, but currently finding sellers near 1.3030.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

     

    The pair is facing resistance mainly near a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with hurdle at 1.3030-1.3050. Since the pair broke the last swing low of 1.3018, there are chances of the pair heading towards the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 1.3018 low to 1.3387 high.

     

    So, there is a possibility of the pair finding sellers and moving down towards 1.2950-1.2930. Only a break and close above the 1.3050 resistance may open the doors for more gains. The next resistance in that case would be near 1.3100, coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (H4).

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  • USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Eyes Canadian CPI For The Next Move

    USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Eyes Canadian CPI For The Next Move

    • – The US Dollar is currently in a recovery mode versus the Canadian dollar, and trading above 1.3100.
    • – There is a monster triangle pattern formed on the weekly chart of USD/CAD, which may provide us the next move either above 1.33 or below 1.30.
    • – Today, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released by the Statistics Canada, which may spark the next move in CAD.

     

    Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    The Canadian dollar is waiting for a major break versus the US Dollar, which may be ignited with today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, published by the Statistics Canada.

     

    The market is prepared for a rise of 1.5% in the price movements by the comparison between the retail prices in Sep 2016, compared with Sep 2015. In terms of the monthly change, the CPI is forecasted to increase by 0.2%, compared with the last decline of 0.2%. Moreover, the Canadian Retail Sales report will also be published today, and the market is aligned for an improvement in the retail sector.

     

    It would be interesting to see how the outcome shapes up. If at all, there is a disappointing result, the CAD may face sellers, and it would give an opportunity to the USD/CAD buyers to take it above the 1.3300 handle.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US dollar is slowly moving higher versus the Canadian dollar, especially after trading below 1.2500 in May 2016. The USD/CAD pair slowly climbed above the 1.3000 handle and gained pace.

     

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis Canadian Dollar

     

    However, any major recovery in the pair won’t be easy. There is a monster resistance formed on the upside, as there is a critical triangle pattern formed on the weekly chart. The pair failed on many occasions to clear the triangle resistance, and may continue to face offers.

     

    However, there are high chances of the pair breaking higher, and moving towards the 1.3500 level in the medium term. It would need the US dollar strength, and a few bad reports in Canada. As stated, today we have the Canadian CPI, and it could well be the first one to start a break move in the USD/CAD pair.

     

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