USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

  • – The US Dollar after a solid run towards 1.3500 against the Canadian Dollar found resistance.
  • – The USD/CAD pair is moving down, and broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart.
  • – Later today, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada, which is expected to rise by 1.8% (YoY).

 

Canadian Consumer Price Index

Today in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada. The market is positioned for an increase of 1.8% in the CPI in March 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The forecast of +1.8% is lower compared to the last +2%. However, when we look at the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index in Canada, the forecast is of +0.4% in March 2017. This is better compared with the last +0.2%. I think the market is positioned for better results.

 

And, considering the fact that the market is expecting an improvement, there is selling interest noted in USD/CAD, as the pair broke a few supports at 1.3480.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar surged higher this week against the Canadian Dollar, and moved above 1.3350 and 1.3450. The USD/CAD pair even broke the 1.236 extension of the last fall from the 1.3410 high to 1.3260 low, which is a positive sign.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Canadian Dollar

 

The USD/CAD pair recently traded close to the 1.3500 resistance where it faced sellers and moved down. During the downside move, the pair broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is approaching the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high.

 

We need to see if the pair can hold the stated fib level at 1.3454 or not. A break below may call for more declines towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high at 1.3427. Today’s Canadian CPI release may be a game changer. We should keep a close eye on 1.3420 as a support, and 1.3500 as a crucial resistance.

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