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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Correcting Lower Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound started a downside move after trading as high as 1.3540 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4.

     

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for a decline in the index from the last reading of 60.1 to 59.0 in Nov 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 59.0 as there was a decline in index from 60.1 to 57.4. Moreover, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was down by 0.8% to 61.4% from the October reading of 62.2%. The report added that:

     

    The New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.8 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in November to 55.3 percent from the October reading of 57.5 percent.

     

    Overall, the result was mixed, but failed to help GBP/USD, and the pair might continue to decline towards 1.3350 in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound had a good bullish run above the 1.3400 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair popped higher and broke a few important resistance levels such as 1.3480, 1.3500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3548 and later a downside correction was initiated. It is slowly moving lower and already broke the 1.3500 and 1.3480 support levels. It also cleared the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.3450 pivot area.

     

    It seems like the pair is following a major expanding triangle with resistance near 1.3490 on the hourly chart. An initial resistance on the upside is around the 1.3475 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It also coincides with the 61.8 % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3538 high to 1.3370 low.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure in the short term and it could even break the 1.3400 handle.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains in Uptrend above 1.3330 Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound is back in the bullish zone above the 1.3330 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017.

     

    British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index

    Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index for Nov 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.1% in the index in Nov 2017, similar to the last reading.

     

    The actual result was around the forecast as there was a decline in index by 0.1% in Nov 2017. Commenting on the same, the Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson OBE, stated:

     

    For the third consecutive month shop price inflation remained static, still teetering on the edge of a return to inflationary territory. November now marks the 55th consecutive month of deflation with the current rate the shallowest in the last four years.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may continue to move higher and it could even break 1.3400 for more gains in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound made good ground recently and settled above 1.3300 and 1.3330 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined sharply recently and traded close to the 1.3220 support where buyers appeared and pushed the pair back above 1.3300 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as high as 1.3385 and is currently consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345. Below 1.3345, the next major support is around 1.3330.

     

    Further to the downside, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3220 low to 1.3385 high at 1.3345 is at 1.3322 along with the 100 hourly simple moving average to act as a buy zone.

     

    On the upside, there is a crucial connecting trend line forming with resistance at 1.3390 on the hourly chart. A break above the 1.3390-1.3400 would open the doors for more gains in the short term.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

    • – The British Pound is slowly moving higher from the 1.3070 swing low against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B.

     

    US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

    Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $34.6B compared with the last $67.2B.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B. The last reading was also revised up from $67.2B to $73.2B. Moreover, the total Net TIC Flows posted a rise from the last revised reading of $130.2B to $51.3B. The report added that:

     

    The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $51.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private outflows were $17.3 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $34.0 billion.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair may find it very difficult to move above the 1.3200 resistance in the near term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after a major decline found support near 1.3070 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 1.3100 handle and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    At the moment, the pair is above 1.3150, but facing a monster bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart. The same trend line prevented gains on many occasions and now stopping a break above 1.3200. The pair is currently correcting lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high.

     

    On the downside, there is a connecting trend line support at 1.3150 along with the 100 hourly SMA. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high at 1.3160.

     

    As long as the pair is above the 1.3150 support and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be an attempt to move above 1.3200 in the near term.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Holding Uptrend Support Vs Japanese Yen

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Holding Uptrend Support Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The British Pound surged higher recently and moved above 151.00 against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at 151.20 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in Japan, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 44.0 as there was a rise from 43.9 to 44.5.

    Japan’s Consumer Confidence

    Today in Japan, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a minor rise in the index from the last reading of 43.9 to 44.0.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast of 44.0 as there was a rise from 43.9 to 44.5. Looking at the overall livelihood index, there was a rise from 42.5 to 43.0, and the income growth index was up from 41.8 to 42.5. The report added that:

     

    This survey was conducted on October 15th, 2017. It covered 8,400 households (Households of two or more persons are 5,712, One-person households are 2,688). The response rate was 69.7% (Households of two or more persons: 74.7%, One-person households: 59.3%).

     

    Overall, the GBP/JPY pair is likely to move higher as long as there is no break below the 151.00 support.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound started a nice upside move from the 149.00-149.20 support area against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair surged higher and broke a few key resistance levels such as 150.00, 150.40 and 151.00 and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The pair traded as high as 151.94 from where a minor correction was initiated. It declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 149.19 low to 151.94 high. However, the pair is currently holding a short-term bullish trend line with support at 151.20 on the hourly chart.

     

    The trend line support is important at 151.20. As long as the pair is above 151.20 and 151.00, it would resume its uptrend. A break of the 151.00 support would ignite a downside wave towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 149.19 low to 151.94 high near 150.55.

     

    On the upside, the 151.50 level is an initial resistance. Above 151.50, the pair might retest 151.90.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound after forming a bottom at 1.3060-80 against the US Dollar moved higher.
    • – There is a crucial ascending channel forming with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PM for Oct 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0.

     

    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 51.0 in Oct 2017.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast of 51.0, as there was no change in the PMI from 51.0. There was not much rise in the output, but the new orders growth was steady. The report added that:

     

    While new orders rose at a slightly quicker pace, production increased at the softest rate for four months. At the same time, companies continued to shed staff amid reports of company-downsizing policies and efforts to raise efficiency.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is positive and likely to keep GBP/USD above the 1.5250 support area in the short term.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound after tumbling towards the 1.3050 support against the US Dollar found support. The GBP/USD pair started an upside move from the 1.3080 swing low and moved above the 1.3100 handle. It also broke the 1.3180 resistance and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    It seems like the pair is following a crucial ascending channel with current support at 1.3260 on the hourly chart. The pair recently traded as high as 1.3291 before starting a short term correction. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    The downsides seem to be limited by the 1.3270 support and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3196 low to 1.3291 high.

     

    Overall, the pair remains in an uptrend as long as above 1.3250. It could soon move above the 1.3290 level to break the 1.3300 sell wall in the near term.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro at Risk of More Declines Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro at Risk of More Declines Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro started a new downside wave from the 0.9020 swing high against the British Pound.
    • – There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8900 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
    • – Recently in the Euro Area, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 (Prelim) was released by the European Commission.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of -1.1, as there was a rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.0.

     

    Euro Area Consumer Confidence

    Recently in the Euro Area, the Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 (Prelim) was released by the European Commission. The market was positioned for a minor rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.1.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of -1.1, as there was a rise in the index from -1.2 to -1.0. Looking at the European Union Consumer Confidence, there was no change in the index from -1.6 in Oct 2017 compared to September 2017.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair was not impressed and remains in the bearish zone below the 0.8920-00 resistance area.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro after a solid upside move above the 0.9000 handle found offers against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair traded as high as 0.9022 before starting a new downside wave. It declined and broke the 0.8950 support along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8856 low to 0.9022 high, which is a bearish signal in the short term. There was even a break below a short-term bullish trend line at 0.8970 on the hourly chart to ignite a downside wave.

     

    At the moment, the pair is attempting a close below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8856 low to 0.9022 high. Therefore, there are high chances of it moving back towards the last swing low of 0.8856.

     

    On the upside, there is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8900 on the hourly chart. Selling rallies in the short term can be opted with a stop above 0.8930.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound declined sharply recently and moved below the 1.3150 support against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6.

     

    China’s Caixin Services PMI

    Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 52.7 to 51.5.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6. Looking at the Composite Output Index, there was a sharp decline from 52.4 to 51.4 in September 2017, which is a new a three-month low. The report added that:

     

    The slowdown was driven by weaker increases in output at both manufacturing and services companies. A drop in the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index from 52.7 to 50.6 in September pointed to only a marginal increase in services activity that was the slowest for 21 months.

     

    Overall, the market sentiment is favoring the US Dollar and that’s why the GBP/USD pair recoveries are likely to be capped by the 1.3150-1.3200 resistance levels.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound remained under a lot of bearish pressure and recently moved below the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3150 support, settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average and traded as low as 1.3026.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting higher and just moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could continue to correct higher and may test another bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at 1.3105. However, the most important resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low at 1.3150.

     

    Any major upsides could face sellers on the topside near 1.3150 and 1.3180. Selling rallies remain a good deal as long as there is no daily close above 1.3200.

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  • GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Extend Its Decline Vs Japanese Yen

    GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Extend Its Decline Vs Japanese Yen

    • – The British Pound is under bearish pressure and recently broke the 150.40 support against the Japanese Yen.
    • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 150.30 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
    • – Today in the UK, the PMI Construction for Sep 2017 was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 50.8 as there was a decline from 51.1 to 48.1.

     

    UK’s Construction PMI

    Today in the UK, the PMI Construction for Sep 2017 was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a minor decline from the last reading of 51.1 to 50.8.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 50.8, as there was a decline from 51.1 to 48.1. The PMI registered a contraction in Sep 2017 the business activity fell for the first time in 13 months. The report added that:

     

    September data revealed a difficult month for the UK construction sector, as a sustained drop in new work led to the first reduction in overall business activity since August 2016. Survey respondents attributed the drop in workloads to fragile confidence and subdued risk appetite among clients, especially in the commercial building sector.

     

    Overall, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to decline and it could even break the recent low of 149.27 in the near term.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound faced a lot of selling pressure recently and started a downside move from the 151.60 swing high against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair declined and broke a few important support levels like 151.20, 151.00 and 150.40.

     

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

     

    The pair even traded below the 150.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 149.27 from where a recovery was initiated. The pair moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 150.95 high to 129.27 low.

     

    However, there is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at 150.30 on the hourly chart.  The pair is currently struggling to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 150.95 high to 129.27 low.

     

    Therefore, there are high chances that the GBP/JPY pair would break the trend line support at 149.80 support and decline back towards the 149.30 zone.

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  • EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Eyes Further Losses Vs British Pound

    • – The Euro is under heavy selling pressure and already broke the 0.8800 support against the British Pound.
    • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
    • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5.

     

    Italian Consumer Confidence

    Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Confidence for Sep 2017 was released by the Istat. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the Confidence to 110.8.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 110.8, as there was a rise in the index from 111.2 (revised) to 115.5. All components registered an increase such as economic index was up from 129.3 to 143.9 and the personal index was up from 105.6 to 106.5. The report added that:

     

    The balance concerning expectations on unemployment fell from 30.5 to 11.7. The balance on inflation perceptions referring to the last 12 months decreased from -11.1 to -14.2 while the balance on inflation expectations for next 12 months grew from -9.5 to -3.8.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might continue to slide and could even break the 0.8754 low in the near term.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a downside move from the 0.8890 swing high against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8800 support zone and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.8754 from where a recovery was started. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high. However, the upside move was protected by the 0.8800 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    Moreover, there are two bearish trend lines with resistance at 0.8800 and 0.8820 on the hourly chart to act as a hurdle for more gains. An intermediate resistance is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.8884 high to 0.8741 high.

     

    Overall, the EUR/GBP pair might be considered as sell on rallies towards 0.8800-0.8820 as long as it is below 0.8840.

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  • GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Downsides Remain Supported Vs US Dollar

    • – The British Pound surged higher this week and traded as high as 1.3328 against the US Dollar.
    • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.
    • – Today in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K.

     

    UK’s Claimant Count Change

    Recently in the UK, the Claimant Count Change for August 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.6K in the Claimant Count.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast 0.6K, as the change was -2.8K. The ILO Unemployment Rate also posted a decline in July 2017 (3M) from 4.4% to 4.3%. The report added that:

     

    There were 1.46 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 75,000 fewer than for February to April 2017 and 175,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

     

    Overall, the GBP/USD pair might correct a few pips towards 1.3250-40 in the near term, but remains supported on the downside.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound is in a major uptrend as it traded above the 1.3250 level this week against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3300 handle today and traded as high as 1.3328 before facing tiny sell offers.

     

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

     

    The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Moreover, the pair broke an ascending channel with support at 1.3310 on the hourly chart.

     

    It seems like the pair could correct further towards 1.3250, which is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3160 low to 1.3328 high. Furthermore, there is a bullish trend line on the same chart at 1.3255.

     

    Therefore, an extension of the current correction is likely to find support near 1.3250. Only a close below the 1.3240 level would call for a test of the 1.3200 support. On the upside, the pair faces an immediate resistance at 1.3310, followed by the last high at 1.3328.

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