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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Turned Bearish Vs US Dollar?

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Turned Bearish Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Aussie Dollar after failing to stay above 0.8000 against the US Dollar started moving lower.
    • – There was a break below two major bullish trend lines with supports at 0.7990 and 0.7950 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Today in Australia, the trade balance report for June 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 1,800M, as there was a trade surplus of 856M.

     

    Australia’s Trade Balance

    Today in Australia, the trade balance report for June 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of 1,800M compared with the last 2,471.

     

    However, the actual result was below the forecast of 1,800M, as there was a trade surplus of 856M. Imports of goods and services for June 2017 were up by 2%, which was more than the last 1%. Exports of goods and services for June 2017 were down by 1%, compared with the last +9%. The report stated that:

    In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $439m (1%) to $31,779m. Non-rural goods fell $740m (4%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (4%). Non-monetary gold rose $406m (27%) and rural goods rose $26m (1%). Services credits fell $129m (2%).

     

    Overall, the AUD/USD pair may extend its declines and remains sell on rallies near 0.7950-70 in the short term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move this past week and traded above 0.8060 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair formed a high near 0.8065 before it started a downside correction towards 0.8000.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The Aussie Dollar buyers fought hard to prevent declines below 0.8000, but eventually failed. There was a break and close below the 0.8000 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    During the downside move, the pair broke two major bullish trend lines with supports at 0.7990 and 0.7950 on the hourly chart. It traded as low as 0.7913 and currently attempting a correction.

     

    The broken trend line at 0.7950 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7992 high to 0.7913 low might act as a resistance for more gains in the near term for AUD/USD.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar remains under bearish pressure below 0.7640 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7640 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Today in Australia, the trade balance figure for May 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a trade surplus of 2,471M, better than the forecast.

     

    Australia’s Trade Balance

    Today in Australia, the trade balance figure for May 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of 1,100M in May 2017, compared with the last 555M.

     

    However, the actual result was above the forecast, as the trade surplus was 2,471M. However, the last reading was revised down from 555M to 90K. The report added that:

    The seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $2,578m (9%) to $32,781m. Non-rural goods rose $2,333m (13%), rural goods rose $118m (3%) and non-monetary gold rose $42m (3%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $27m. Services credits rose $84m (1%).

     

    Overall, the AUD/USD pair may correct a few pips higher in the near term, but likely to face sellers near 0.7620-40.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar struggled a lot during this week and after trading as high as 0.7708 against the US Dollar, there was a downside wave. The AUD/USD pair moved down and broke a few important supports such as the 0.7680 and 0.7640.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.7570 from where a correction wave was initiated. The pair is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7682 high to 0.7570 low. However, there is a crucial resistance forming on the upside near 0.7620 and 0.7640.

     

    The 0.7640 level was a support earlier, and now it might prevent gains. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7640 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The same 0.7640 level also coincide with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    So, selling rallies near 0.7620-40 might be considered with a stop above the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, a short-term support is at 0.7580-70.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

    • – The Aussie dollar recently struggled and moved towards 0.7635 against the US Dollar.
    • – The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7685 support and a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
    • – Australia’s trade balance for Jan 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a trade surplus of 1,302M, less than the forecast of 3,800M.

     

    Australian Trade Balance

    Earlier today in Australia, the trade balance for Jan 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting the difference in the value of imports and exports to post a surplus of 3,800M in Jan 2017.

     

    However, the result was on the lower side, as the trade surplus was 1,302M. The last trade surplus was revised to 3,334M. Imports rose 4% and exports declined by 3% in Jan 2017. The report added that the seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $945m (3%) to $31,796m. Non-monetary gold fell $671m (39%) and non-rural goods fell $403m (2%). Rural goods rose $57m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (17%). Services credits rose $72m (1%)”.

     

    The result failed to help the Aussie dollar, and increased bearish pressure on AUDUSD, resulting in a dip towards 0.7650. More losses are likely if the pressure remains intact around 0.7650 and 0.7665.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie dollar failed near 0.7740 recently against the US Dollar and made a downside move. It broke the 0.7685 support area and also moved below the 100 simple moving average (H4).

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

     

    Also, there was a break below a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 0.7688, igniting a downside move. He AUD/USD pair traded as low as 0.7636 where it found buyers. Now, there is a connecting bearish trend line formed with resistance at 0.7675.

     

    The 0.7675 resistance also coincides with the 100 simple moving average and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7740 high to 0.7636 low. It looks like any corrections from the current levels towards 0.7680 may find sellers. On the downside, a break below 0.7636 could open the doors for a test of 0.7610 and 0.7600 in the short term.

     

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