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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains In Downtrend Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains In Downtrend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie dollar made a downside move below 0.7500 against the US Dollar.
    • – The AUD/USD pair is currently following a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7520 on the hourly chart.
    • – Earlier today, the Australian Home Loans figure for Feb 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a decline of 0.5%.

     

    Australian Home Loans

    Today in Australia, the Home Loans figure for Feb 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for the number of home loans in Feb 2017 to increase by roughly 0.2%, compared with the last +0.5%.

     

    However, the outcome was below the forecast, as the Home Loans declined by 0.5% in Feb 2017. The last reading was also revised down from +0.5% to +0.4%. Overall, the result was negative, and increased bearish pressure on AUD/USD. The report stated that the “trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.7% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.2%”.

     

    In short, the AUD/USD has no reason to recover, and it may extend its decline below the 0.7480 level.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie dollar remained in a heavy downtrend with a move below 0.7520 against the US Dollar. There is a monster trend line resistance formed at 0.7520 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a downtrend catalyst. As long as the AUD/USD pair is below 0.7520-0.7540, it may continue to decline in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

     

    On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7562 high to 0.7477 low. However, the most important one is near the trend line resistance above 0.7500. The same area also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7562 high to 0.7477 low.

     

    On the downside, an initial support is around the recent low of 0.7480. A break below it could spark more losses towards the 0.7450 level, followed by a test of the 0.7420 level if the Aussie dollar sellers remain in control.

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  • AUD/USD – Aussie Dollar Reaching Crucial Juncture Vs Dollar

    AUD/USD – Aussie Dollar Reaching Crucial Juncture Vs Dollar

    • – The Aussie dollar managed to slowly move higher against the US Dollar after trading as low as 0.7310 in Nov 2016.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of AUD/USD with support on the downside at 0.7430.
    • – Today, Australian Home Loans released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a decrease of 0.8% in Oct 2016.

     

    Australian Home Loans and Chinese CPI

    Today, Australia saw the release of the Home Loans by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting a decline of 1% in the number of home loans in Oct 2016.

     

    However, the result was a bit better, as there was a decline of 0.8%. The report added that the “trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.3%. Investment housing commitments rose 1.5%, while owner occupied housing commitments fell 0.5%”.

     

    Moreover, there was a major release in China today, as the Consumer Price Index was reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China for Nov 2016. The market was aligned for an increase of 2.2% in the CPI in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

     

    However, the result was above the forecast, as there was a rise of 2.3% in the Chinese CPI in Nov 2016. The Aussie dollar managed to gain a few bids, and may look to gain traction in the near term following a positive release in China.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie slowly and steadily moved higher against the US Dollar after trading as low as 0.7310 in Nov 2016. There is a nice trend developing with support on the downside in the form of a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar

     

    The trend line support is also aligned with the 100 simple moving average (H4), calling for an upside move. However, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7777 high to 0.7310 low is acting as a resistance near 0.7480-0.7500.

     

    A break above the stated resistance area is needed for the AUD/USD pair to ignite further gains in the short term. On the downside, the 0.7420 level is a major support.

     

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