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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains at Risk Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains at Risk Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar made a short-term top near the 0.7810 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +6.7% as there was a rise in the GDP by 6.8% (YoY).

    China’s GDP

    Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a rise of 6.7% in GDP in Q1 2018 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +6.7% as there was a rise in the GDP by 6.8%. Looking at the quarterly change, there was a rise of 1.4% in the GDP, which was less than the forecast of 1.5%. Moreover, the Chinese Industrial output posted a rise of 6% in Feb 2018 (YoY), less than the forecast of 6.2%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently moving lower and it seems like it remains at a risk of a downside break below the 0.7750 support.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar traded nicely higher this past week and moved above 0.7750 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even traded above the 0.7800 handle, but it failed to hold gains above the stated level. A short-term top was formed at 0.7809 and the pair started a downside correction.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    It declined and traded towards the 0.7750 support, which prevented declines. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    The pair is currently holding the 0.7750-60 support, but there are a few bearish signs. To initiate an upside move, the pair has to move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7809 high to 0.7751 low.

     

    On the flip side, a break and close below the 0.7750 support may perhaps open the doors for a downside push in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar To Gain Traction Vs US Dollar?

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar To Gain Traction Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Aussie Dollar moved higher and traded above the 0.7700 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7695 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Retail Sales report for Feb 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise in the sales by 0.6% (MoM).

    Australia’s Retail Sales

    Recently in Australia, the Retail Sales report for Feb 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.3% in sales in Feb 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.3% as there was a rise in the sales by 0.6%. This was also better than the last reading of +0.1%. The report added:

     

    Online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in February 2018. In February 2017 online retail turnover contributed 3.6 per cent to total retail.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a positive zone and it may continue to rise in the near term towards 0.7730 and 0.7750.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support near the 0.7650 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move, traded above the 0.7680 and 0.7700 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7703 high to 0.7666 low. More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7695 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    The pair may soon break the 1.236 Fib extension of the last decline from the 0.7703 high to 0.7666 low. Above the 0.7715 level, the next target for buyers could be around the 0.7730 level, which is the 1.618 Fib extension of the last decline from the 0.7703 high to 0.7666 low.

     

    Overall, the pair remains supported for more gains and any dips towards 0.7700 and 0.7680 are likely to find buyers in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Bearish Trend Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Bearish Trend Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar declined heavily recently and moved below the 0.7750 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7710 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the House Price Index for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +3.9% as there was a rise in the index by 5% (YoY).

    Australia’s House Price Index

    Recently in Australia, the House Price Index for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a rise of 3.9% in the index in Q4 2017 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +3.9% as there was a rise in the index by 5%. Looking at the quarterly change, the market was looking for no change in the index in Q4 2017, but there was a rise of 1%, which was better than the last -0.2%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a range above 0.7680, but it remains at a risk of more losses in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar started a major downside move from well above 0.7880 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair tumbled and broke many support levels such as 0.7800, 0.7750 and 0.7720 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair traded as low as 0.7686 from where it started an upside correction. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7803 high to 0.7686 low. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7710 on the hourly chart.

     

    The pair must break the trend line and resistance near 0.7710 to start a fresh upside move. The next resistance could be near 0.7750 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7803 high to 0.7686 low.

     

    On the downside, the 0.7700 level is a short term support followed by the last swing low of 0.7686. A break below 0.7685 could trigger further losses in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Rise Further Vs US Dollar?

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Rise Further Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Aussie Dollar remained in an uptrend and it moved above 0.7840 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7865 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Home Loans figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.1% as there was a decline of 1.1% in loans in Jan 2018.

    Australia’s Home Loans

    Recently in Australia, the Home Loans figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.1% in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -0.1% as there was a decline of 1.1% in loans in Jan 2018. However, the current result was better than the last -2.3%. Moreover, the investment lending for homes came in at -1.1%, compared with the last -2.8%.

     

    The AUD/USD pair was not affected after the result, but the upside move above the 0.7880 was paused and the pair starting trading in a range.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar is currently in a decent uptrend from the 0.7750 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded higher, broke the 0.7800 and 0.7840 resistance levels, and settled nicely above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair recently traded as high as 0.7883 and is currently correcting lower. On the downside, an initial buy zone is near a short-term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7865 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    Below the trend line, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7790 low to 0.7883 high is a short term support. However, the most important support is around 0.7835, which was a resistance earlier.

     

    Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7790 low to 0.7883 high is around 0.7835 to act as a support. On the upside, the pair has to break the 0.7885 and 0.7900 resistance levels to gain upside momentum.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Gain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Gain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar formed a major bottom near the 0.7710 level against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7750 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the RBA Interest Rate Decision March 2018 was announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • – The outcome was in line with the forecast as there was no change in rate from 1.5% in March 2018 by the RBA.

    RBA Interest Rate Decision

    Recently in Australia, the RBA Interest Rate Decision March 2018 was announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The market was positioned for no change in the interest rates in March 2018 from 1.5% by the RBA.

     

    The actual result was in line with the forecast as there was no change in rate from 1.5% in March 2018 by the RBA. Moreover, the Retail Sales for Jan 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was looking for a rise of 0.4% in Sales. However, the actual result was a bit lower, as there was a rise in sales by 0.1% in Jan 2018.

     

    The AUD/USD pair has moved into a positive zone and it may continue to rise further above 0.7800 in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar was in a major downtrend towards the 0.7700 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair formed a major bottom near the 0.7710 level and later it started an upside move from the 0.7712 low.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair traded higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7818 high to 0.7712 low. The upside move was positive as there was a close above the 0.7740 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7750 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The pair is now trading around the 0.7790 level. It must break the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7818 high to 0.7712 low to gain upside momentum.

     

    There can be a minor downside correction, but the overall bias is positive and the pair may soon move past 0.7800.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Decline Further Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar is currently under pressure and it recently declined below 0.7900 against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7880 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of -10.0% as there was a decline of 19.4% in the work done.

    Australia’s Construction Work Done

    Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done for Q4 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of around 10% in the work done in Q4 2017.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of -10.0% as there was a decline of 19.4% in the work done. Moreover, the Wage Price Index for Q4 2017 was also released today. It posted an increase of 0.6% (QoQ), more than the forecast of 0.5%. The report added that:

     

    The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.6% in the December quarter 2017. This continued the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years.

     

    The AUD/USD pair failed to move higher and it seems like there is a lot of pressure on the pair since it is below the 0.7900 level.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar after trading above the 0.7950 level found sellers against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair formed a top near the 0.7988 level and started a downside move. It declined and traded below the 0.7920 and 0.7900 support levels.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7772 low to 0.7988 high. It is now trading well below the 0.7880 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7880 on the hourly chart. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, it is likely to face sellers near 0.7880 and 0.7900.

     

    On the downside, the next major support is near the 0.7820 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7772 low to 0.7988 high.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support base at 0.7760 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018.

    Australia’s National Australia Bank Business Confidence

    Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the index from 11 to 10 in Jan 2018.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018. However, the last reading was revised down from 11 to 10. Moreover, the National Australia Bank Business Conditions index rose from the last reading of 13 to 19. Commenting on the report, the NAB Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, stated:

     

    The large rise in the NAB Monthly Business Survey business conditions index provides further confirmation of robust business activity in Australia. While the index can bounce around from month-to-month due to changes in seasonal patterns, conditions remain elevated on a trend basis.

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently gaining upside momentum and it seems like the pair could trade above the 0.7880 level in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7760 level after a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 0.7800 resistance to gain upside momentum in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    The pair also moved above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

     

    The pair is now placed nicely above the 0.7840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Once there is a break above 0.7880 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low, there could be more gains.

     

    On the downside, the 0.7840 and 0.7830 levels are decent support levels.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar is in an uptrend and it is currently above the 0.8040 support against the US Dollar.
    • – There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance at 0.8105 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q4 2018 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.7% as there was change of 0.6% in the CPI (QoQ).

    Australia’s Consumer Price Index

    Recently in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q4 2018 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.7% in Q4 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

     

    The actual result was below the forecast of 0.7% as there was a change of 0.6% in the CPI (QoQ). In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.9%, less than the forecast of 2%, but more than the last increase of 1.8%. The report added that:

     

    The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.7%), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.5%), and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.4%).

     

    The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a range above the 0.8040 support and is preparing for the next move in the near term.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move from the 0.7650 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair surged higher and broke many resistance levels such as 0.7800 and 0.7980 to settle above the 0.8000 level.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    A high was formed at 0.8135 from where a downside correction was initiated. The recently traded as low as 0.8045 and is currently trading in a range. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8104 high to 0.8045 low.

     

    At the moment, it seems like there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance at 0.8105 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The pair is currently struggling to break the 0.8080 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    A break above the 0.8080 resistance, followed by a clear break of 0.8105 is needed for more gains. On the downside, a break of the 0.8045 support could ignite a move towards 0.8000.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Hold 0.7940 Support Vs US Dollar?

    AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Hold 0.7940 Support Vs US Dollar?

    • – The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move and traded as high as 0.8023 against the US Dollar.
    • – Later, there was a downside move below an ascending channel with support at 0.7970 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Employment Change figure for Dec 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of 9.0K as there was change of 34.7K in Dec 2017.

    Australia’s Employment Change

    Recently in Australia, the Employment Change figure for Dec 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 9.0K in Dec 2017 compared with the last 61.6K.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of 9.0K as there was change of 34.7K in Dec 2017. The last reading was also revised up to 63.6K. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in Dec 2017 was up from 5.4% to 5.5%. The report added that:

     

    Unemployment increased 20,500 to 730,600. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 9,900 to 501,800 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 10,600 to 228,800.

     

    The AUD/USD pair was seen trading a few pips down and it is currently trading near a major support area at 0.7940.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar started a decent upside move from the 0.7847 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair climbed higher and broke the 0.7900 and 0.7940 resistance levels. The upside move was strong as there was a break above the 0.8000 level as well.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    A high was formed at 0.8023 from where a downside correction was initiated. The pair moved down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7847 low to 0.8023 high.

     

    During the downside, the pair broke an ascending channel with support at 0.7970 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is trading near a major support at 0.7940 and the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7847 low to 0.8023 high.

     

    Therefore, the 0.7940 support holds a lot of importance. The pair must stay above 0.7940 to avoid declines in the near term.

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  • AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Placed in Bullish Zone Vs US Dollar

    AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Placed in Bullish Zone Vs US Dollar

    • – The Aussie Dollar recently gained upside momentum and moved above 0.7850 against the US Dollar.
    • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7850 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • – Recently in Australia, the Retail Sales for Nov 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
    • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.4% as there was an increase in sales by 1.2% (MoM).

    Australia’s Retail Sales

    Recently in Australia, the Retail Sales for Nov 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of 0.4% in sales compared with the previous month.

     

    The actual result was above the forecast of +0.4% as there was an increase in sales by 1.2%. The actual was also above the last increase of 0.5%. The report added that:

     

    There were rises for clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.6 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaways (0.4 per cent). Department stores fell (-1.1 per cent) whilst food was unchanged in November 2017.

     

    The AUD/USD pair remains nicely placed in the bullish zone above 0.7850 and it looks set for more gains.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar formed a short-term bottom at 0.7805-10 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair made a nice upside move, traded above the 0.7850 and 0.7870 resistance levels, and closed above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

     

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

     

    During the upside move, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7850 on the hourly chart. The pair traded as high as 0.7881 before correcting lower. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7809 low to 0.7881 high.

     

    However, the downside move was protected by the broken bearish trend line at 0.7850. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7809 low to 0.7881 high also acted as a support area.

     

    Overall, it seems like the pair remains in the bullish zone above 0.7850 and the 100 hourly SMA. It will most likely resume its uptrend and it could move back above the 0.7880 level to challenge the 0.7900 handle.

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