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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Downsides Limited Below 112.70 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar traded higher and moved above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B.

 

Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥559.8B, compared with the last surplus of ¥112.3B.

 

The outcome was above the forecast of ¥559.8B as there was a trade surplus of ¥670.2B. Exports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 14.1%, less than the forecast of 14.9%. Imports of goods and services in Sep 2017 rose 12%, less than the forecast of 15%.

 

Overall, the USD/JPY pair might correct a few pips in the near term, but remains supported above 112.70.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar gained decent upside momentum this week and traded above the 112.50 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.08 and is currently correcting lower towards 112.80-70.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 112.70 on the hourly chart.

 

The trend line support is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.12 low to 113.08 high. Therefore, if the pair continues to moves down, there are chances of it finding bids near the 112.80-70 levels.

 

On the upside, the 113.00 handle is an initial resistance followed by the last swing high of 113.08. A close above 113.80 could take the pair towards the next resistance at 113.50. Overall, buying dips in the near term towards the 112.80-70 levels can be considered with a stop below the trend line support.

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Gold Price Remains Sell on Rallies Near $1295 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Remains Sell on Rallies Near $1295 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price traded lower recently and broke the $1295 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1296 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in the US, NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 64, as there was a rise from 64 to 68.

 

US NAHB Housing Market Index

Recently in the US, NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct 2017 was released by the National Association of Home Builders. The market was positioned for no change in the index from the last reading of 64.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 64, as there was a rise from 64 to 68. It is the highest reading since May 2017 and all three HMI components posted gains in October 2017. Commenting on the same, the NAHB Chairman, Granger MacDonald, stated:

 

This month’s report shows that home builders are rebounding from the initial shock of the hurricanes. However, builders need to be mindful of long-term repercussions from the storms, such as intensified material price increases and labor shortages.

 

The overall result was positive and impacted Gold price below the $1300 handle.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a steady rise in Gold price from the $1280 swing low against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $1305 before facing strong offers. Later, the price started a downside moved and traded below the $1300 support zone.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The decline was important since the price broke the $1298 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1296 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

 

These are negative signs in the short term since the price is now below $1295. It traded as low as $1281.36 recently and currently correcting higher. At the moment, the price is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1305.90 high to $1281.36 low.

 

On the upside, the broken support near $1295-96 might now act as a strong resistance and a sell zone in the near term.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Remains in Uptrend Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar recently traded as high as 0.7897 against the US Dollar before starting a correction.
  • – There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7825 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Recently in Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales report for Sep 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +0.2%, as there was a decline in sales by 0.5% (MoM).

Australia’s New Motor Vehicle Sales

Recently in Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales report for Sep 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of around 0.2% in sales compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of +0.2%, as there was a decline in sales by 0.5%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a decline of 0.8% in sales, which was disappointing compared with the last increase of 1.7%. The report added that:

 

When comparing national trend estimates for September 2017 with August 2017, sales for other vehicles increased by 0.7%. By contrast, Passenger vehicles and Sports utility vehicles decreased by 1.0% and 0.1% respectively.

 

Overall, the AUD/USD pair might correct a few pips toward 0.7820, but it remains in an uptrend as long as above 0.7800.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar gained momentum recently and moved above the 0.7850 resistance against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7897 against the US Dollar before starting a correction.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair traded lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7770 low to 0.7897 high. However, the downside move was protected by the 0.7835 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7770 low to 0.7897 high also stopped further declines. On the downside, there is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7825 on the hourly chart, which remains a key barrier for more declines in AUD/USD.

 

Overall, buying dips can be considered toward 0.7825-20 as long as there is no break below the trend line support.

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EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro To Retest 131.80 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The Euro is in a downtrend and is trading below the 132.80 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production (MoM).

 

Japan’s Industrial Production

Today in Japan, the Industrial Production for August 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a rise of 2% compared with the previous month.

 

However, the actual result was above the forecast of +2%, as there was an increase of 2.1% in the production. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 5.3%, which was less than the last +5.4%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization posted an increase of 3.3% in August 2017, which was more than the last decline of 1.8%.

 

Overall, the EUR/JPY pair will most likely continue to move lower towards the last swing low of 131.85.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro after a decent rise above 133.00 against the Japanese Yen found sellers near 133.50. The EUR/JPY pair started a downside wave and broke a couple of important support levels such as 133.00 and 132.80.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

During the downside move, the pair also cleared a major bullish trend line with support near 132.85 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was even a close below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high.

 

At present, the pair is trading below the 132.25 support and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.85 low to 133.49 high. Therefore, there are chances of more declines in the near term, probably towards the last swing low of 131.85.

 

On the upside, the broken support at 132.80 is now a major resistance along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro likely made a short-term top near 1.1878 against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
  • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1% (MoM).

 

German CPI

Recently in the Euro Zone, the German consumer price index for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in the CPI by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 1.8% in the CPI, and the actual was similar to the forecast and the last increase of 1.8%. The report added:

 

Food prices in September 2017 rose 3.6% year on year, their increase being even larger than that of energy prices. In September 2017, above all edible fats and oils (+34.2%) were more expensive than a year earlier.

 

The result was neutral, but might hold heavy losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1800 support in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro slowly and steadily moved higher and traded above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1840-1.1850 resistance before forming a short-term high at 1.1878.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair is currently correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high. During the downside move, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1850 on the hourly chart.

 

The pair is currently trading near another bullish trend line with support at 1.1840 on the same chart. If sellers succeed in breaking the second bullish trend line, there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1719 low to 1.1878 high at 1.1817.

 

Overall, the pair remains supported for more gains as long as there is no close below the 1.1800 support area.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Moved Back In Bullish Zone Vs US Dollar?

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Moved Back In Bullish Zone Vs US Dollar?

  • – The New Zealand Dollar after consolidating above the 0.7055-60 support against the US Dollar started an upside move.
  • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7075 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.5%, as there was a decline in the index by 0.2% (MoM).

 

New Zealand Food Price Index

Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for Sep 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for an increase of around 0.5% in the index compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 0.5%, as there was a decline in the index by 0.2%. It was disappointing compared with the last increase of +0.6%. The report added that:

 

The average price of $5.39 for a cheapest available 500g block was up 51 cents on July and up $2.07 (62 percent) on August 2016. The annual butter price increase is the largest in percentage terms since 2010.

 

Overall, the NZD/USD pair might extend the recent gains if buyers are able to push the pair above the 0.7120 resistance.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar after a sharp decline from the 0.7200-0.7210 swing high against the US Dollar found support above 0.70501. The NZD/USD pair consolidated for some time above the 0.7055-60 support before forming a base for an upside move.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair started trading higher and broke a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7075 on the hourly chart. Buyers also succeeded in clearing the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7204 high to 0.7056 low.

 

At the moment, the pair is trading near a connecting resistance trend line at 0.7115, which is close to the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7204 high to 0.7056 low.

 

A successful close above the trend line resistance and 0.7120 would open the doors for more gains in the near term, probably towards 0.7150-60.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Struggling To Break 112.60-70 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar traded above the 111.70 resistance recently against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 38% as there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%.

 

Japanese Machine Tool Orders

Today in Japan, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders report for Sep 2017 was released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders” Association. The market was positioned for a rise of around 38% compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The outcome was above the forecast of 38% since there was a rise in the orders by 45.3%. It was also above the last +36.3%. Earlier, the Machinery new orders figure for August 2017 posted a rise of 4.4% compared with the same month a year ago. It was above the forecast of 0.8% and a lot better than the last decline of 7.5%.

 

Overall, the USD/JPY pair might continue to struggle in the short term and could even retest the 112.00 support area.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar recently attempted a break of the 112.80 resistance against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair failed to gain momentum and started a downside move below the 112.60 level.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair declined and traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 112.50 on the hourly chart. A low was formed at 111.97 before the pair started a correction. It recovered well and traded above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low.

 

However, a bearish trend line at 112.60 prevented gains along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 112.82 high to 111.97 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is at 112.62 to act as a major hurdle for buyers.

 

As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 112.60 and the 100 hourly SMA, there is a chance of USD/JPY retesting the 112.00 support area.

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USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Trading Near Crucial Support Vs Swiss Franc

  • – The US Dollar started a correction after trading close to the 0.9840 level against the Swiss Franc.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart of USD/CHF.
  • – Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
  • – The outcome was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1% (MoM).

 

Swiss Unemployment Rate

Today in Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate for Sep 2017 was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The market was not looking for any change in the unemployment rate from 3.2% compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was better than the forecast, as there was a decline in the rate from 3.2% to 3.1%. Looking at the Youth unemployment (15 to 24 year olds), there was a decline of -5.6%, and the number of unemployed 50 fell by around 0.5%. The report added that:

 

133,169 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAV), 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9’506 persons (-6.7%).

 

The USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a major support at 0.9770, which holds the key for the next move in the near term.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remains in a nice uptrend above 0.9720 against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair recently traded above the 0.9800 handle and posted a high at 0.9836. Later, a correction was initiated from the mentioned high and the pair moved below the 0.9800 handle.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

 

There was a break below the 23.36% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. However, pair is now trading near a major support area at 0.9770 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

There is also a major bullish trend line with support at 0.9770 on the hourly chart aligned with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9711 low to 0.9836 high. Therefore, the mentioned trend line support at 0.9770 holds a lot of importance for the next move.

 

If the pair holds above 0.9770 and breaks a connecting bearish trend line at 0.9790, there can be more upsides. Alternatively, a downside break of 0.9770 could push USD/CHF towards 0.9720.

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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound declined sharply recently and moved below the 1.3150 support against the US Dollar.
  • – The GBP/USD pair recently broke a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6.

 

China’s Caixin Services PMI

Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Sep 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 52.7 to 51.5.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of 51.5, as there was a decline in the PMI from 52.7 to 50.6. Looking at the Composite Output Index, there was a sharp decline from 52.4 to 51.4 in September 2017, which is a new a three-month low. The report added that:

 

The slowdown was driven by weaker increases in output at both manufacturing and services companies. A drop in the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index from 52.7 to 50.6 in September pointed to only a marginal increase in services activity that was the slowest for 21 months.

 

Overall, the market sentiment is favoring the US Dollar and that’s why the GBP/USD pair recoveries are likely to be capped by the 1.3150-1.3200 resistance levels.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained under a lot of bearish pressure and recently moved below the 1.3200 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3150 support, settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average and traded as low as 1.3026.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair is currently correcting higher and just moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3055 on the hourly chart.

 

It seems like the pair could continue to correct higher and may test another bearish trend line on the same chart with resistance at 1.3105. However, the most important resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3291 high to 1.3026 low at 1.3150.

 

Any major upsides could face sellers on the topside near 1.3150 and 1.3180. Selling rallies remain a good deal as long as there is no daily close above 1.3200.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies Near 1.1740 Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro declined recently and moved below the 1.1750 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6% (MoM).

 

German Factory Orders

Recently in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders report for August 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was positioned for a rise in orders by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of +0.7%, as there was a rise in orders by +3.6%. Looking at the yearly change, the market was looking for a rise of 4.7% in orders, but the actual was +7.8%. It was also way higher than the last increase of +5%. The report added:

 

In August 2017, domestic orders increased by 2.7% and foreign orders by 4.3% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 1.0%, new orders from other countries increased 7.7% compared to July 2017.

 

The result was positive and might push the EUR/USD pair higher towards 1.1730, but upsides are likely to remain capped.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro declined during the past few sessions after making a short-term top above 1.1770 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1740 and 1.1720 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.1685 and is currently attempting a short-term correction. On the upside, an initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low.

 

However, the most important resistance is near 1.1740 and the 50% % Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.7786 high to 1.1685 low. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1750 on the hourly chart.

 

Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1750 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, it remains sell on rallies in the short term.

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