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GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Retain Upside Momentum Vs US Dollar?

  • – The British Pound started a downside correction after trading as high as 1.4146 against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018.

 

UK Rightmove House Price

Recently in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index for Feb 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.7% in the index in Feb 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 0.7%% as the index rose 0.8% (MoM) in Feb 2018, which was similar to the last reading. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.5% in the index in Feb 2018, more than the last 1.1%. The report added:

 

Average price of property coming to market is up 0.7% (+£2,067) this month on Rightmove, tracking over 90% of the UK property market, similar to the 0.6% rise at this time a year ago with virtually identical number of properties coming to market.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently holding the 1.4000 support, but it remains at a risk of a downside push in the near term.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a nice upside move this past week and traded above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.4146 before it started a downside correction and traded below 1.4100.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair declined and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high. Moreover, there was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.4085 on the hourly chart.

 

However, the downside move was protected by the 1.4000 support. The pair is currently trading above the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Below 1.4000, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3799 low to 1.4146 high at 1.3973 is a nice support.

 

Overall, the price action is positive as long as the pair is above 1.3970-1.4000. A break below 1.3970 could ignite more losses in the near term.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro in Major Uptrend Vs US dollar

  • – The Euro made a nice upside move this week and traded above 1.2500 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B.

US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec 2017 were released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was looking for the flows to be around $50.3B, down from the last $57.5B.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of $50.3B as the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $27.3B. Looking at the total Net TIC Flows, the market was looking for $-37.0B, but it came in at $-119.3B. This was also well below the last revised reading of $33.5B.

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently placed nicely above the 1.2500 support and it may continue to rise in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro after a decline towards the 1.2260 level found support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move, traded above the 1.2350 and 1.2480 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair even broke the 1.2500 level and traded as high as 1.2546 recently. It may correct a few pips in the near term, which an initial support around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

 

However, the pair remains supported on the downside above 1.2500. There is also an ascending channel forming with support at 1.2505 on the hourly chart. Below the channel support, the next major support is at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2384 low to 1.2546 high.

 

On the upside, the pair may soon break the 1.2540-50 resistance area and trade towards 1.2600 in the near term, which is the next major resistance.

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EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro In Downtrend Below 134.00 Vs Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro In Downtrend Below 134.00 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The Euro is following a downtrend and is currently trading below 134.00 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a declining channel forming with resistance at 133.10 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Machinery New Orders report for Dec 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +2.2% as there was a decline in order by 5% (YoY).

 

Japan’s Machinery New Orders

Today in Japan, the Machinery New Orders report for Dec 2017 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was looking for a 2.2% rise in orders in Dec 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of +2.2% as there was a decline in order by 5% (YoY). It was well below the last increase of 4.1%. Moreover, the monthly change posted a decline of 11.9%, whereas the market was looking for -2.3%. This was a lot worse compared with the last increase of 5.7%.

 

The EUR/JPY pair may correct a few pips in the short term, but it remains in a downtrend below the 133.40 resistance.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro started a downside move from well above 134.50 and declined by more than 100 pips recently against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair faced a lot of selling pressure and moved below the 134.00 and 133.80 support levels.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

The pair is now trading below the 133.50 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 131.59 and recovered recently. However, the upside move was capped by 133.30 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Moreover, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at 133.10 on the hourly chart. On the downside, an initial support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 131.59 low to 133.38 high.

 

There are chances of a couple of swing moves in EUR/JPY around 133.00 in the near term. Once there is a close above the 133.50 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, the pair could gain upside momentum.

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GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Decline Below 148.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Decline Below 148.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The British Pound is under a lot of pressure and it recently declined below 149.00 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 149.30 and 149.80 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Cabinet Office.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.2% as there was a rise in the GDP by 0.1% in Q4 2017.

Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

Today in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.2% in the GDP in Q4 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of 0.2% as there was a rise in the GDP by 0.1% in Q4 2017. This was well below the last reading of 0.6%. In terms of the yearly change, the preliminary reading suggests a rise of 0.5% in the GDP, less than the forecast of 0.9%.

 

The GBP/JPY pair is currently declining, but there could be a minor upside correction towards the 149.30 and 149.80 resistance levels.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh downside move from well above the 154.00 level against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair declined, broke the 152.00 and 150.00 support levels, and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

 

The fell below the 149.00 support as well and traded as low as 148.70 recently. It seems like the pair could decline further towards the 1.236 Fib extension of the last wave from the 148.91 low to 150.82 high at 148.46. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistances at 149.30 and 149.80 on the hourly chart.

 

If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, the 149.30 and 149.80 resistance levels are likely to act as a strong barrier.

 

Overall, the pair decline below 148.50 and if sellers remains in control, it could even test the 1.618 Fib extension of the last wave from the 148.91 low to 150.82 high at 147.73.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Poised to Gain Further Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support base at 0.7760 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018.

Australia’s National Australia Bank Business Confidence

Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Jan 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a minor decline in the index from 11 to 10 in Jan 2018.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 10 as there was a rise in the index to 12 in Jan 2018. However, the last reading was revised down from 11 to 10. Moreover, the National Australia Bank Business Conditions index rose from the last reading of 13 to 19. Commenting on the report, the NAB Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, stated:

 

The large rise in the NAB Monthly Business Survey business conditions index provides further confirmation of robust business activity in Australia. While the index can bounce around from month-to-month due to changes in seasonal patterns, conditions remain elevated on a trend basis.

 

The AUD/USD pair is currently gaining upside momentum and it seems like the pair could trade above the 0.7880 level in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7760 level after a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 0.7800 resistance to gain upside momentum in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair also moved above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7810 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

 

The pair is now placed nicely above the 0.7840 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Once there is a break above 0.7880 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7909 high to 0.7759 low, there could be more gains.

 

On the downside, the 0.7840 and 0.7830 levels are decent support levels.

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USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Canadian Dollar

  • – The US Dollar is likely forming a short-term top near the 1.2685 level against the Canadian Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
  • – Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K.

 

Canadian Net Employment Change

Recently in Canada, the Net Employment Change in Dec 2017 was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for a change of 10K in Dec 2017 compared with the last change of 78.6K.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of 10.0K as the change in employment was -88.0K. Moreover, the last reading was also revised down from 78.6K to -2.4K. More importantly, there was a rise in the employment rate from 5.7% to 5.9%. The report added that:

 

Following two months of increases, employment fell by 88,000 in January. Part-time employment declined (-137,000), while full-time employment was up (+49,000). At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%.

 

The USD/CAD pair spiked above the 1.2650 level, but it faced sellers near 1.2685 level and declined later.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar was in a major uptrend this past week as it moved above the 1.2600 level against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair gained traction and traded as high as 1.2685 where it faced a strong selling interest.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

 

The pair started a downside move and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high. Moreover, there was a break below a key expanding triangle support at 1.2575 on the hourly chart.

 

The pair traded below the 1.2560 support and is currently testing the 100 hourly simple moving average. It may soon test or even break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2397 low to 1.2685 high at 1.2540.

 

Below 1.2540, the pair may decline further and it could retest the 1.2500 support area. On the upside, the 1.2580 and 1.2600 levels are important resistances for an upward move.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Decline Further Vs US dollar

  • – The Euro started a downside wave and moved below the 1.2280 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018 (MoM).

Chinese Consumer Price Index

Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Jan 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking for a rise of 0.6% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 0.7% as the index increased by 0.6% in Jan 2018. In terms of the yearly change, the Chinese CPI rose 1.5%, which was in line with the forecast, but it was below the last 1.8%.

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, and it seems like the pair could even break the 1.2200 support for more declines.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro after trading above the 1.2500 level found sellers against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a downside move, broke the 1.2400 and 1.2320 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.2211 low recently and is currently correcting higher. It already tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low. However, there was no follow through and the pair is now back below the 1.2270 support.

 

On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with current resistance at 1.2290 on the hourly chart. The 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2405 high to 1.2217 low is near the trend line resistance.

 

Therefore, a break above the 1.2290 and 1.2300 levels won’t be easy. If EUR/USD fails to move higher, it could soon break the 1.2200 support area and decline further may be towards the 1.2150 level.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold This Vs US Dollar?

  • – The British Pound is under pressure and it recently broke the 1.4000 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018.

 

UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance figure for Jan 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for a rise of 5% in the index in Jan 2018 compared with the last reading of 8%.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 5% as the RICS Housing Price increased by 8% in Jan 2018. This was similar to the last reading of 8%. The report added:

 

In January, new buyer enquiries, instructions and sales all continued to drift lower, while the three month expectations for agreed sales points to a flat picture in the coming months.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure and it must stay above the 1.3850 support to avoid further declines.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a downside move from the 1.4280 swing high against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and steadily to move below the 1.4200 and 1.4100 support levels. More importantly, it traded below the 1.4000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.3850 and is currently consolidating losses. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

 

However, on the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.3880-1.3900 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. The pair struggle to break the 1.3900 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3993 high to 1.3850 low.

 

On the downside, the 1.3850 support holds a lot of importance, and the pair must stay above 1.3850 to avoid further declines. On the upside, a break and close above 1.3900 could decrease the bearish pressure.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Facing Major Resistance Vs US Dollar

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Facing Major Resistance Vs US Dollar

  • – The New Zealand Dollar faced a lot of sellers near the 0.7340-50 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7350 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Employment Change report for Q4 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 0.2% as there was a change of 0.5%, but less than the last 2.2%.

 

New Zealand Employment Change

Today in New Zealand, the Employment Change report for Q4 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a change of 0.2% in Q4 217 compared with the last change of 2.2%.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of 0.2% as there was a change of 0.5%, but less than the last 2.2%. The unemployment rate dropped from the last reading of 4.6% to 4.5%. The report added that:

 

The unemployment rate for the December 2017 quarter remains considerably above New Zealand’s lowest unemployment rate, which was 3.3 percent, recorded a decade ago in the December 2007 quarter, immediately before the global financial crisis.

 

The NZD/USD pair failed to move above the 0.7340 and 0.7350 resistance levels, and started a downside move.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar started a fresh upside wave from the 0.7256 low against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair traded above the 0.7280 and 0.7300 resistance levels to gain decent upside momentum.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis, New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair even moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7405 high to 0.7256 low. However, the upside move was capped by a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7350 on the hourly chart.

 

Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7405 high to 0.7256 low also acted as a resistance and prevented gains above the 0.7350 level. The pair is once again moving lower and is currently trading below the 0.7320 level.

 

If the pair fails to move higher above the 0.7340 and 0.7350 resistance levels, it remains at a risk of more declines below the 0.7300 level and towards 0.7260.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline below 108.50 Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The US Dollar started to decline from the 110.25 high and moved below 109.00 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9.

 

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Recently in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan 2018 was released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was positioned for the index to increase from 55.9 to 56.5.

 

The result was above the market forecast of 56.5, but there was an increase from the last revised reading of 56.0 to 59.9. The last reading was revised up from 55.9 to 56.0. The report added that:

 

This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January.

 

The USD/JPY pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it seems like it could extend declines below 108.50 in the near term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar traded above the 110.00 level this past week against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 110.43 and later it started a downside wave. An intermediate high was formed at 110.26 from where the pair crashed below 109.00.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

During the downside, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 109.70 on the hourly chart. The pair broke the 109.00 and 108.80 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 108.53 and it currently remains at a risk of more declines.

 

An initial resistance on the upside is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 110.26 high to 108.53 low. It seems like the pair may extend declines and it could even break the 108.50 support.

 

On the upside, the pair faces important resistances near the 109.00 and 109.20 levels.

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