NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar To Resume Downtrend Vs US Dollar?

NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar To Resume Downtrend Vs US Dollar?

  • – The New Zealand Dollar recently traded as low as 0.6848 against the US Dollar.
  • – The NZD/USD pair recovered, but facing a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6880 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Trade Balance for March 2017 (MoM) released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a trade surplus of $332M.

 

New Zealand Trade Balance

Today in New Zealand, the Trade Balance for March 2017 (MoM) was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of around $200M in March 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

However, the result better, as the New Zealand Trade Balance posted a surplus of $332M. Looking at the yearly change, there was a trade deficit of $-3.67B in March 2017, which was a bit lower than the last revised deficit of $-3.81B. The report stated that “Exports to China in the March 2017 month were valued at $1.1 billion, up $326 million (43 percent). Milk powder, butter and cheese (dairy), and lamb led the rise. Dairy rose $114 million and lamb rose $57 million”.

 

Overall, the NZD/USD pair may find it tough to move past the 0.6880 and 0.6900 resistance levels in the near term.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar was under a lot of pressure lately, as it tumbled below the 0.6900 support against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair traded as low as 0.6848 before it started a recovery. It managed to move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6967 high to 0.6848 low.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

However, the upside move was contained by the 0.6880 and 0.6900 resistance levels. There is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6880 on the hourly chart, which is acting as a strong barrier and preventing further gains.

 

Moreover, the pair is also struggling to move above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6967 high to 0.6848 low. So, there is a chance that the pair may move down once again to retest 0.6850. On the other hand, if NZD/USD manages to settle above 0.6900, it could open the doors for further upsides in the near term.

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EUR/USD – Can Euro Hold Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD – Can Euro Hold Bullish Trend Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro moved down towards 1.0855 against the US Dollar before starting a recovery.
  • – The EUR/USD pair is about to break a contracting triangle pattern with support at 1.0900 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in the Euro Zone, the German GfK Consumer Confidence for May 2017 posted an increase from 9.8 to 10.2.

 

German GfK Consumer Confidence

Today in the Euro Zone, German GfK Consumer Confidence for May 2017 was published. The market was positioned for the Confidence index to increase from the last reading of 9.8 to 9.9.

 

However, the result better, as the German GfK Consumer Confidence managed to post an increase to 10.2 in May 2017. It was a positive sign, and the report stated that “increasing economic optimism as well as a more moderate increase in prices mean that the income prospects of German citizens, which were already at a high level, have increased even further’. The income expectation indicator also posted a rise of 14.1 points, and currently stands at 57.5 points, which is brilliant.

 

Overall, the EUR/USD pair is currently not gaining traction, which means there can be a minor decline to 1.0880 before the pair recovers.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro recently dipped below 1.0900 and traded as low as 1.0854 against the US Dollar. Later, the EUR/USD pair found support and moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0950 high to 1.0854 low.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded higher and tested the 1.0900 resistance area where it faced offers. The pair also failed to break the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0950 high to 1.0854 low. At the moment, there is a contracting triangle pattern with support at 1.0900 formed on the hourly chart.

 

The pair is currently struggling to clear the 1.0910 resistance area. So, there is a chance of a minor dip towards 1.0880 before the pair can resume the uptrend. On the upside, the next hurdle could be at the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0950 high to 1.0854 low at 1.0927. The overall trend is positive, but the pair needs to gain momentum above 1.0910 for more gains.

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USD/JPY – US Dollar To Correct Lower Vs Japanese Yen?

USD/JPY – US Dollar To Correct Lower Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The US Dollar enjoyed heavy gains against the Japanese Yen, and settled above 111.00.
  • – The USD/JPY pair is currently facing a major connecting bearish trend line at 111.50 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Feb 2017 (MoM) released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry posted an increase of 0.7%.

 

Japanese All Industry Activity Index

Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Feb 2017 (MoM) was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for the index to increase by roughly 0.5% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

However, the result better, as the All Industry Activity Index managed to post an increase of 0.7% in Feb 2017, which was also a lot more considering the last +0.1%. On the other hand, in the US, the number of New Home sales in March 2017 (MoM) released by the US Census Bureau posted a rise of 5.8%, which was a lot more than the forecast of -0.5%.

 

So, it looks like there is hardly any reason for the USD/JPY pair to move below 111.00, but it might correct a few pips lower in the near term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar opened with a gap up to 110.25 against the Japanese Yen, and continued to move higher. The USD/JPY did not move down to fill the gap below 109.50. It traded past 110.70 resistance and even broke the 111.00 handle to register healthy gains.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

At the moment, the pair is facing a major hurdle above 111.40, as there is connecting bearish trend line at 111.50 on the hourly chart. It is preventing gains, and it looks like the pair may correct below 111.30 in the near term.

 

On the downside, an initial support is around a short-term bullish trend line at 111.20. A break below it could lead the pair towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.59 low to 111.50 high. Any further declines should be limited, and in the worst case, the pair may even test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.59 low to 111.50 high at 110.32.

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Market Update – April 25, 2017

Market Update – April 25, 2017

The Forex market opened mixed after the first round of the French presidential elections. A worse case scenario for the Euro and for the European project has been avoided.

 

Mr. Macron and Mrs. LePen will meet in the second round, two weeks from now, and Macron is favorite. It is still early and it is a long shot, but markets reacted with a relief rally.

 

Euro opened higher with a gap on all the currency pairs. EURUSD opened above 1.09, EURJPY well above 120, only to mention two of the most important Euro pairs. The other risk-on pairs followed suit, like the USDJPY that gapped higher as well.

 

While the majority of the gaps are still open at the time this update is written, we should focus on the events ahead of us to see how to position next. The U.S. dollar is key in the days ahead.

 

Friday we’ll see the U.S. GDP being released. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker points to a lower release, but nothing can be ruled out when it comes to how the market is going to move. Remember last time the Fed hiked rates? The dollar sold on the news.

 

Until the GDP in the US, the ECB (European Central Bank) is meeting on Thursday. While the improvements in the European economies are obvious, there is not enough for the ECB to be hawkish.

 

Core inflation slipped this month to 1.5% and it is not in line with the long-term ECB expectations. If the ECB will set the tone for a monetary policy shift, this will be seen in June. Until then, expect dovishness from Draghi and Co.

 

What next? Trump’s administration announced that this Wednesday it will release the tax cuts plan. Corporate taxes are about to be slashed to 15%. This would be a big boost for the U.S. economy and it could trigger a massive dollar buying frenzy.

 

Such a move, combined with another stimulus, will see the economy overheating. This will lead to the Fed hiking faster than intended, even if the hikes will be for the wrong reason. In the end, the interest rate differential is the only thing that matter in Forex trading.

 

Until we’ll know more about Trump’s administration plans, we’re bound in ranging markets. USDCAD and EURUSD are ranging for more than a year now, while USDCHF is doing the same. Positioning for the break is key moving forward.

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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Consolidating Gains Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Consolidating Gains Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound after a nice upside drift towards 1.2900 against the US Dollar found resistance.
  • – The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating gains, and trading in a channel with resistance at 1.2830 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today, the UK’s Net Borrowing for March 2017 released by the National Statistics posted £4.365B, a lot more than the forecast of £1.500B.

 

UK’s Net Borrowing

Today in the UK, the Net Borrowing for March 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a reading of £1.500B in March 2017, compared with the last £1.100B.

 

However, the result was on the lower side, as the Net Borrowing stood at £4.365B, a lot more than the forecast of £1.500B. On the other hand, the last reading was revised down from £1.100B to £-0.656B. So, the overall decline was a lot more. The report highlighted that “Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £20.0 billion to £52.0 billion in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), compared with the financial year ending March 2016; this is the lowest net borrowing since the financial year ending March 2008”.

 

There was no major move in British Pound and GBP/USD, but the pair may surge higher once more towards 1.2900.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound gained traction lately and moved above the 1.2760 and 1.2800 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.2905 before starting a minor downside move.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair moved down below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2514 low to 1.2905 high. However, the downside was limited, as the pair found support at 1.2760 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2514 low to 1.2905 high also prevented the downside move and held losses. At the moment, the pair is mostly consolidating gains, and trading in a channel with resistance at 1.2830 on the hourly chart. Once the consolidation completes, there is a chance of GBP/USD breaking the 1.2830 resistance for a move towards 1.2880 or 1.2900.

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EUR/AUD Forecast – Euro To Capitalize Versus Aussie Dollar

EUR/AUD Forecast – Euro To Capitalize Versus Aussie Dollar

  • – The Euro opened with a gap up, considering bullish sentiment building around French Elections.
  • – The EUR/AUD opened near 1.4440, and then started forming a descending channel on the hourly chart.
  • – Today, the German IFO Expectations for April 2017 released by the CESifo Group posted a decline from 105.7 to 105.2.

 

German IFO Expectations

Today in the Euro Zone, the German IFO Expectations for April 2017 was released by the CESifo Group. The market was positioned for an increase of from the last reading of 105.7 to 106.00 in April 2017.

 

However, the result was on the lower side, as there was a decline in the German IFO Expectations from 105.7 to 105.2. On the other hand, the IFO Current Assessment index posted an increase from the last revised reading of 119.5 to 121.1. The last but not the least, the German business sentiment index posted a rise from the previous revised reading of 112.4 to 112.9 in April 2017. It was high than the forecast of 112.5.

 

So, there is overall positive sentiment for the EUR/AUD pair, which could lead it higher towards the 1.4400 level.

 

EUR/AUD Technical Analysis

The Euro gained heavily today, as the market was bullish on the French election results. All the Euro pairs opened with a gap up, including EUR/AUD, trading above the 1.4400 level. The pair traded as high as 1.4439 from where a correction was initiated.

 

EUR/AUD Technical Analysis Euro Aussie Dollar

 

Later, the pair traded lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.4167 low to 1.4439 high. At the moment, the pair has formed a descending channel on the hourly chart with resistance at 1.4375.

 

The pair is bouncing from the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.4167 low to 1.4439 high. However, it needs to break the channel resistance at 1.4375 in order to challenge the 1.4400 level once again. On the downside, the 1.4300 level is the most important support, followed by the 1.4280 area. At the moment, there looks no possibility of the EUR/AUD pair closing the opening gap at 1.4200 in the near term.

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USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Topping Ahead of Canada’s CPI Release

  • – The US Dollar after a solid run towards 1.3500 against the Canadian Dollar found resistance.
  • – The USD/CAD pair is moving down, and broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart.
  • – Later today, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada, which is expected to rise by 1.8% (YoY).

 

Canadian Consumer Price Index

Today in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2017 will be released by the Statistics Canada. The market is positioned for an increase of 1.8% in the CPI in March 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The forecast of +1.8% is lower compared to the last +2%. However, when we look at the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index in Canada, the forecast is of +0.4% in March 2017. This is better compared with the last +0.2%. I think the market is positioned for better results.

 

And, considering the fact that the market is expecting an improvement, there is selling interest noted in USD/CAD, as the pair broke a few supports at 1.3480.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar surged higher this week against the Canadian Dollar, and moved above 1.3350 and 1.3450. The USD/CAD pair even broke the 1.236 extension of the last fall from the 1.3410 high to 1.3260 low, which is a positive sign.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Canadian Dollar

 

The USD/CAD pair recently traded close to the 1.3500 resistance where it faced sellers and moved down. During the downside move, the pair broke two important bullish trend line with support at 1.3480 on the hourly chart. At the moment, the pair is approaching the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high.

 

We need to see if the pair can hold the stated fib level at 1.3454 or not. A break below may call for more declines towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3313 low to 1.3498 high at 1.3427. Today’s Canadian CPI release may be a game changer. We should keep a close eye on 1.3420 as a support, and 1.3500 as a crucial resistance.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Eyeing To Capitalize On Gains

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Eyeing To Capitalize On Gains

  • – The Aussie Dollar recently moved higher and broke the 0.7500 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7515 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Earlier today in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Q1 2017 was released, which posted an increase from 5 to 6.

 

National Australia Bank Business Confidence

Today in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Q1 2017 was released. The market was expecting the NAB Index to remain stable near 5 in Q1 2017, compared with the previous quarter.

 

The outcome was better than the forecast, as Q1 2017 National Australia Bank Business Confidence posted a rise from 5 to 6. Also, the economic releases in New Zealand were positive today. Like, the Consumer Price Index for Q1 2017 posted a rise of 2.2% (YoY), which was more than the forecast of 2.0%.

 

Overall, the market sentiment improved a bit for the NZD and AUD, which means AUD/USD may trade further higher above 0.7530.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar decline may have come to an end at 0.7490 against the US Dollar, as it started recovering. It has already moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last fall from the 0.7562 high to 0.7491 low.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

 

The AUD/USD pair also moved past a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7515 on the hourly chart. However, it failed to break the 50% Fib retracement level of the last fall from the 0.7562 high to 0.7491 low. It started a downside move, but the same broken trend line is now acting as a support at 0.7515.

 

As long as the pair is above 0.7500, there are chances of it moving higher towards 0.7530 or even 0.7550. On the downside, a close below 0.7500 may again put the Aussie under bearish pressure for more declines in the near term towards 0.7460. The hourly RSI has just managed to move above 50, which means AUDUSD could hold the 0.7515 support if buyers remain in action. Buying dips may be considered as along as the pair is above 0.7500.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Looks Primed for Gains Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Looks Primed for Gains Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro bounced sharply this week against the US Dollar, and traded above 1.0700.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0690 formed on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Earlier today, the Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat for March 2017 (YoY) posted a rise of 1.5%.

 

Euro Zone CPI

Today in the Euro Zone, the Consumer Price Index for March 2017 was released by the Eurostat. The market was positioned for the price of goods and services to increase by 1.5% in March 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The outcome was in line with the forecast, as the Euro Zone CPI increased 1.5%. In terms of the monthly change, the CPI rose 0.8%, which was a lot more than the last +0.4%. The report added that the “lowest annual rates were registered in Romania (0.4%), Ireland and the Netherlands (both 0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Latvia (3.3%), Lithuania (3.2%) and Estonia (3.0%). Compared with February 2017, annual inflation fell in seventeen Member States, remained stable in six and rose in five“.

 

Overall, the result was positive, and may help the EUR/USD in trading above the 1.0700 handle in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a decent recovery after finding buyers around the 1.0610 and 1.0620 support levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD bounced back and moved above the 1.0670 resistance area. There was even a break above the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 1.0677 high to 1.0602 low.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair recently traded as high as 1.0736 where it faced resistance and currently moving lower. An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0634 low to 1.0736 high. Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0690 formed on the hourly chart.

 

The same trend line also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0634 low to 1.0736 high. So, if the pair corrects lower in the near term, it is likely to find support around the 1.0680 and 1.0670 levels.

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USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Struggle To Recover Vs Swiss Franc Continues

USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Struggle To Recover Vs Swiss Franc Continues

  • – The US Dollar after declining as low as 1.0007 against the Swiss Franc started a recovery, but struggled near 1.0040 and 1.0060.
  • – There are two bearish trend lines with resistance at 1.0040 on the hourly chart of USD/CHF, acting as a hurdle for an upside move.
  • – Earlier today, the US total Net TIC Flows for Feb 2017 released by the US Department of Treasury posted $19.3B, compared with the last revised reading of $121.2B.

 

US Total Net TIC Flows

Today in the US, the total Net TIC Flows for Feb 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for a reading of around $80-$85B in Feb 2017, compared with the last $110.4B.

 

The outcome was on the lower side, as total Net TIC Flows came in at $19.3B. The last reading was revised up from $110.4B to $121.2B. On the other hand, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $53.4B, compared with the last revised reading of $5.9B. The report added that “Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in February; net purchases were $35.9 billion.  Net purchases by private foreign investors were $41.1 billion, while net sales by foreign official institutions were $5.2 billion”.

 

Overall, the US Dollar is struggling, and it looks like it won’t be easy for USD/CHF to gain pace above the 1.0040 and 1.0060 resistance levels.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar recently fell close to the 1.00 handle against the Swiss Franc, and traded as low as 1.0007. Later, the USD/CHF pair started a recovery, and moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0089 high to 1.0007 low.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

 

However, the recovery could not last long, as the pair faced sellers near two bearish trend lines with resistance at 1.0040 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0089 high to 1.0007 low also acted as a resistance at 1.0058 and prevented further gains.

 

At the moment, the pair is slowly moving down along with the trend lines and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the current trend continues, there is a chance of USD/CHF retesting the last swing low of 1.0010.

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