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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro to Surpass 1.1900 Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro gained bullish momentum this week and was able to move above the 1.1820 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0.

 

Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

Recently in the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline in the PMI from 58.5 to 58.3 in Nov 2017.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 58.3 as there was a rise in the PMI from 58.5 to 60.0. Moreover, the Euro Zone Composite Output Index was up from the last reading of 56.0 to 57.5 in Nov 2017. The report added:

 

The eurozone economy is showing signs of picking up momentum in the fourth quarter, with multi-year highs seen for all main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation in November.

 

The EUR/USD pair remains in a nice uptrend and it might continue to move higher towards 1.1900 in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a decent uptrend from the 1.1710 swing low against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a nice upside move and traded above the 1.1780 and 1.1820 resistance levels, and is currently placed well above 1.1840 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair was able to break a key bearish trend line at 1.1780 on the hourly chart, which has opened the doors for more gains. The pair traded as high as 1.1855 and is currently trading in a range. An ascending channel is forming with current support at 1.1850.

 

The pair is likely to accelerate higher and it will most likely test the 1.1900 level. On the downside, the channel support is also near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1735 low to 1.1865 high.

 

As long as the pair is above the 1.1820 support, it remains in an uptrend with next targets as 1.1900 and 1.1910.

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Gold Price Remains in Uptrend above $1285 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Remains in Uptrend above $1285 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price moved higher recently and traded above the $1285 resistance area against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1286.50 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Nov 18, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 240K, as there was a decline in claims to 239K.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Nov 18, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a decline in the claims from 249K to 240K.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 240K, as there was a decline in claims to 239K. On the other hand, the last reading was revised up from 249K to 252K. Therefore, the overall decrease was more than the market expected which is by 13K.

 

There was a correction initiated in gold price, but it remains supported above the $1285 and $1282 levels in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a nice upside move initiated from the $1274.46 low in Gold price against the US Dollar. The price gained a lot of momentum and was able to move above the $1285 resistance to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

During the upside, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1286.50 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The price traded as high as $1294.67 and is currently correcting lower. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.46 low to $1294.67 high.

 

There is a major support area near $1286 since it is close to the broken trend line and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.46 low to $1294.67 high.

 

As long as the price is above $1285, $1282 and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more gains in the short term toward $1295 or even $1300.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Move Above 0.7600 Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Move Above 0.7600 Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar is currently facing a major resistance near 0.7580-0.7600 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is an important bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7585 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done in Q3 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of -2.1% as there was an increase of 15.7% in Q3 2017.

Australia’s Construction Work Done

Recently in Australia, the Construction Work Done in Q3 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of 2.1% in the Construction Work Done in Q3 2017.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of -2.1% as there was an increase of 15.7% in Q3 2017. The last reading was also revised up from +9.3% to +9.8%. The report added that:

 

The trend estimate for total construction work done rose 0.6% in the September quarter 2017. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done rose 15.7% to $61,863.2m in the September quarter.

 

Overall, the AUD/USD pair is trading with a positive bias, but it has to break 0.7600 to move in the bullish zone.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar traded lower recently and tested the 0.7535-0.7540 support area against the US Dollar. Later, the AUD/USD pair started a consolidation and finally made an upside move towards the 0.7600 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair failed to move above the 0.7585-0.7600 resistance area and is current back below the 100 hourly SMA. It is currently trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7531 low to 0.7588 high.

 

An initial support on the downside is around 0.7560 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7531 low to 0.7588 high. As long as the pair is above the 0.7550-40 support, it might make another attempt to break the 0.7600 resistance.

 

Buyers need to push the pair above 0.7585 and 0.7600 in order to place AUD/USD in the bullish zone. The next stop could be near the 0.7640 level.

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EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

EUR/JPY Forecast – Can Euro Break This Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The Euro declined recently and traded below the 132.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index (MoM).

 

Japan’s All Industry Activity Index

Today in Japan, the All Industry Activity Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.4% in the index compared with the previous month.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of -0.4%, as there was a decline of 0.5% in the index. It was also well below the last increase of 0.1%. The Indices of Construction Industry Activity was down by 2.3% in Sep 2017, and the Indices of Industrial Production was down by 1%.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro started a major downside move from the 133.88 swing high against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair declined and broke a couple of important support levels such as 132.60 and 132.00. It even traded below the 131.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

The pair traded as low as 131.17 and later started an upside correction. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low. However, the broken support near 132.40-50 is now acting as a resistance. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 132.45 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.88 high to 131.17 low is near 132.55 and the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, there are many resistances on the upside for EUR/JPY and it won’t be easy for the pair to move past 132.60.

 

In the short term, selling rallies can be opted near 132.45 and 132.60 as long as there is break and close above the 100 hourly SMA.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Remains Sell on Rallies Vs US Dollar

  • – The New Zealand Dollar declined recently and traded below 0.6800 against the US Dollar.
  • – There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 0.6845 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for Oct 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of -1% as there was a decline in the index by 1.1%.

 

New Zealand Food Price Index

Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for Oct 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a decline of 1% in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of -1% as there was a decline in the index by 1.1%. This was also well above the last decline of 0.2%. The report added that:

 

Butter prices led the way again – up 62 percent from the same time last year. Milk and cheese prices also increased (up 7.5 and 12 percent respectively) and had large contributions to the increase in food prices seen in the year to October 2017.

 

Overall, the NZD/USD pair is likely to correct higher in the near term, but it might face sellers near 0.6840-50.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar started a downside move from the 0.6980 resistance against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair declined heavily, traded below the 0.6900 and 0.6800 levels, and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 0.6780 and it is currently correcting higher. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6882 high to 0.6780 low. On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 0.6845 on the hourly chart.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6882 high to 0.6780 low near 0.6830 is also a major resistance for buyers in the short term.

 

Overall, if the pair continues to move higher, then it will most likely face sellers near the 0.7830 and 0.7845 resistance levels.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Gains Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro is in an uptrend above the 1.1750 support area against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production.

 

US Industrial Production

Recently in the US, the Industrial Production for Oct 2017 was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The market was positioned for a 0.5% rise in the Industrial Production in Oct 2017 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise of 0.9% in the Industrial Production. It was even above the last revised reading of +0.4%. The report added:

 

The index for utilities rose 2.0 percent, but mining output fell 1.3 percent, as Hurricane Nate caused a sharp but short-lived decline in oil and gas drilling and extraction.

 

The EUR/USD corrected a few pips, but the overall trend is positive as long as the pair is above 1.1750.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro maintained a bid tone this week above 1.1700 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started an upside move and was able to move above the 1.1700 and 1.1750 resistance levels to close above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair recently traded as high as 1.1860 and later started a downside correction. It moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high. However, the downside move was limited by the 1.1760 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1664 low to 1.1860 high.

 

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1755 on the hourly chart, which is also positioned near the 100 hourly SMA. The pair is once again gaining momentum above 1.1780 and looks set to continue moving higher.

 

Any dips from the current levels toward 1.1780 and 1.1760 can be seen as a buying opportunity in the near term.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Break 1.3200 Vs US Dollar?

  • – The British Pound is slowly moving higher from the 1.3070 swing low against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B.

 

US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Recently in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for Sep 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $34.6B compared with the last $67.2B.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of $34.6B as the net flows were $80.9B. The last reading was also revised up from $67.2B to $73.2B. Moreover, the total Net TIC Flows posted a rise from the last revised reading of $130.2B to $51.3B. The report added that:

 

The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $51.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private outflows were $17.3 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $34.0 billion.

 

Overall, the GBP/USD pair may find it very difficult to move above the 1.3200 resistance in the near term.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound after a major decline found support near 1.3070 against the US Dollar. Later, the GBP/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 1.3100 handle and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

At the moment, the pair is above 1.3150, but facing a monster bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 on the hourly chart. The same trend line prevented gains on many occasions and now stopping a break above 1.3200. The pair is currently correcting lower and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high.

 

On the downside, there is a connecting trend line support at 1.3150 along with the 100 hourly SMA. An intermediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3133 low to 1.3187 high at 1.3160.

 

As long as the pair is above the 1.3150 support and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be an attempt to move above 1.3200 in the near term.

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Market Update – November 15, 2017

Market Update – November 15, 2017

Slowly but surely, we get closer to the end of the year trading, with most of the price action surrounding the economic news. One such financial news was today’s CPI or inflation in the United States.

 

While the number was in line with expectations, 0.1%, the market chose to focus on the Core CPI (inflation excepting the food and energy prices). Although still in line with the expected value, 0.2%, it was a touch higher than the previous release.

 

Because this is the preferred measure for inflation hat the Fed uses, the tick higher was enough for dollar bulls to show their teeth.

 

The best currency pair that expressed that bullishness was the USDCAD. It jumped to almost 1.28 on robust U.S. data, considering that the Retail Sales in the U.S. came out on the strong side too.

 

All eyes this Friday will be on the Canadian inflation data. If it fails to meet consensus, the pair may try for the magical 1.30 round number.

 

Euro on the Move

 

Despite everything mentioned above, the Euro was the star of the week. On every currency pair, crosses or the EURUSD major, the Euro made significant advances.

 

The commodity currencies were the ones to suffer the most against the common one. The EURCAD and EURAUD rose a couple or more big figures.

 

EURUSD topped around 1.1860, completely retracing the bearish move caused by the previous ECB meeting.

 

Moreover, the EURJPY tries to break higher, with all eyes being in the 134.50 area. A clean break there opens the gates to nothing but 140.

 

The Eurozone economies look better than ever after the 2008 financial crises. With Paris building a strong economic environment and Brexit driving companies out of the City of London, the perspective looks even brighter.

 

Recently, Airbus of France won over fifty billion Euros in orders from a middle-east investor, and this should put a floor on any possible Euro selling until the end of the year and the start of the new one.

 

Conclusion

 

With uncertainties in the U.S. regarding the new Fed Chairman and the tax reform plan, the obvious place to park the money for the rest of the year and the start of the new one seems to be Eurozone.

 

Among all the Euro pairs, the crosses, especially the commodity ones, appear to be the ones that have the most potential.

 

End of year flows are expected any moment now, with few critical economic events ahead.

 

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Crude Oil Price Breaks Key Support at $56.40 Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price Breaks Key Support at $56.40 Vs US Dollar

  • – Crude oil price after a nice upside move faced sellers at $58.00 against the US Dollar and started a downside move.
  • – There was a break below a major descending channel with support at $56.40 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report in the week to Nov. 10 was released.
  • – According to the report, there was a rise in the crude oil inventories by 6.5 million barrels.

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report in the week to Nov. 10 was released. The market was positioned for a decrease in the crude oil inventories by around 1 million barrels.

 

However, the actual result was disappointing, as the report pointed a rise in the crude oil inventories by 6.5 million barrels. Most analysts were not expecting a rise in the crude oil inventories by 2 million barrels.

 

Overall, there was an increase in selling pressure on oil price and it moved below the $56.00 support area.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

There was a good upside wave in crude oil price during the past few days above $55.00 against the US Dollar. However, the price failed to move above the $58.00 level and faced a lot of offers, prompting a downside reaction.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

The price started a downside move and traded below the $57.00 support. The most important thing was a break below a major descending channel with support at $56.40 on the hourly chart, which has opened the doors for more losses.

 

The price recently traded below the 100 hourly simple moving average and formed a low at $54.99. It is currently correcting higher with an initial resistance around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $57.32 high to $54.99 low.

 

There are many hurdles on the upside like $56.00 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $57.32 high to $54.99 low at $56.16 where sellers would appear. Therefore, any major corrections toward $56.00 are likely to face offers in the near term.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Break This Vs US Dollar?

AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Break This Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Aussie Dollar traded lower recently and moved below the 0.7650 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7640 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Oct 2017 was released.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 7 as the National Australia Bank Business Confidence came in at 8.

Australia’s National Australia Bank Business Confidence

Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for Oct 2017 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the index from the last reading of 7.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 7 as the National Australia Bank Business Confidence came in at 8. The last reading was also revised up from 7 to 8. Looking at the National Australia Bank Business Conditions index, there was a sharp rise from the last reading of 14 to 21.

 

Overall, the AUD/USD pair attempt an upside break above the 0.7640 level if it manages to stay above the 0.7610-0.7600 support.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar started a new downside wave from the 0.7694 swing high against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair moved below the 0.7660 and 0.7650 support levels and is currently trading well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 0.7608 from where a correction was initiated. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7694 high to 0.7608 low, and attempting an upside break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7640 on the hourly chart.

 

A close above the trend line resistance and the 0.7650 level could trigger more gains. The 0.7650 level is also around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7694 high to 0.7608 low. Above 0.7650, the 100 hourly SMA is near 0.7660 to act as a hurdle.

 

Overall, there is a chance of AUD/USD breaking the 0.7640 level, but it is facing many resistances on the upside.

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