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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Testing Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Testing Key Support Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar is in a major uptrend and it recently traded above 113.00 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a short-term bearish trend line formed with resistance near 112.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of ¥534.2B as there was a trade surplus of ¥721.4B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥534.2B compared with the last reading of ¥578.3B.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of ¥534.2B as there was a trade surplus of ¥721.4B. The last reading was also revised up from ¥578.3B to ¥580.5B. Imports of goods and services in June 2018 increased 2.5% (YoY), less than the forecast of 5.3%. Exports of goods and services in June 2018 increased 6.7% (YoY), less than the forecast of 7.0%.

 

The USD/JPY pair is currently correcting lower is trading near a major support area at 112.65 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar climbed higher recently and broke the 112.80 and 113.00 resistances against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 113.13 before sellers appeared. The pair started a downside correction and moved below the 112.80 support area.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

During the decline, the pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.21 low to 113.13 high. However, the pair reached as crucial support area near 112.65 and the 100 hourly SMA.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 112.21 low to 113.13 high is acting as a support near the 112.67 level. Below this, the next key support is near the 112.55 level, which was a resistance earlier.

 

On the upside, there is a short-term bearish trend line formed with resistance near 112.75 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. A break above this could open the doors for a fresh upward move towards the 113.00 level in the near term.

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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Drops Sharply Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Drops Sharply Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound failed to move above the 1.3270 resistance and declined sharply against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the US, the Total Net TIC Flows report for May 2018 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of $52.3B as the Total Net TIC Flows came in at $69.9B.

 

US Total Net TIC Flows

Recently in the US, the Total Net TIC Flows report for May 2018 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was positioned for the Total Net TIC Flows to be $52.3B, less than the last $138.7B.

 

The actual was above the forecast of $52.3B as the Total Net TIC Flows came in at $69.9B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up from $138.7B to $233.1B. Looking at the Net Long-Term TIC Flow, there was a decline from the last revised reading of $94.0B to $45.6B.

 

The GBP/USD pair recently made a sharp downside move and broke a few important supports to move into a bearish zone below 1.3200.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound was placed nicely above the 1.3250 level earlier this week against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair faced a strong resistance zone near 1.3270-80, which resulted in a sharp decline below the 1.3200 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

Moreover, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3150 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. It even broke the 1.3100 support area and traded as low as 1.3070. It corrected higher and is currently trading near the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3268 high to 1.3070 low.

 

The pair may perhaps correct a few pips towards the 1.3140 level where it is likely to face sellers. Above this, the next resistance is near 1.3190 and the 50% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3268 high to 1.3070 low.

 

Overall, the pair has moved into a bearish zone below 1.3200, and any corrections from the current levels are likely to face sellers near 1.3140 and 1.3190.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Surging Higher Vs US Dollar

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Surging Higher Vs US Dollar

  • – The New Zealand Dollar found a strong buying interest near 0.6755 against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6760 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index for Q2 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.5% (QoQ) as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.4%.

 

New Zealand Consumer Price Index

Today in New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index for Q2 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.5% in the CPI in Q2 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of +0.5% (QoQ) as there was a rise in the CPI by 0.4%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.5% in the CPI, which was less than the forecast of 1.6%, but a lot more than the last 1.1%. The report added that:

 

The largest contributor to inflation was higher prices for housing and household utilities, up 0.9 percent this quarter, and 3.1 percent in the year to June 2018.

 

The NZD/USD pair gained bullish momentum above the 0.6800 level and it seems like the pair may accelerate gains in the near term.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar formed a solid support base above the 0.6750 level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD jumped sharply higher, broke the 0.6760, 0.6780 and 0.6800 resistances, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

During the upside move, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6760 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair. The pair also moved above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6856 high to 0.6725 low.

 

It has opened the doors for more gains and the pair could surge towards the 0.6850 level in the short term since it is about to settle above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6856 high to 0.6725 low.

 

Overall, the market sentiment is bullish and dips in NZD/USD are likely to find support near 0.6800 and 0.6780.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Facing Key Resistance Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Facing Key Resistance Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar recovered nicely from the 0.7365 swing low against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 0.7430 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
  • – Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +1.6% as there was a rise in the Chinese GDP by 1.8% (QoQ).

China’s Gross Domestic Product

Recently in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a rise in the GDP by 1.6% in Q2 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of +1.6% as there was a rise in the Chinese GDP by 1.8%. Considering the yearly change, there was a rise of 6.7% in the GDP, which was in line with the forecast, but less than the last reading of +6.8%.

 

The AUD/USD pair is placed in a bullish zone, but it has to break the 0.7430-35 resistance zone to accelerate gains in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar started a decent upside move from the 0.7360 low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded above the 0.7400 level to move into a bullish zone. An intermediate low was formed at 0.7367 and the pair is currently trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The recent upside move faced a strong resistance near the 0.7435 level. There is also a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 0.7430 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair. The pair is currently correcting lower and it already broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7367 low to 0.7435 high.

 

However, there are many supports on the downside, starting with 0.7410 and the 100 hourly SMA. Below this, the 0.7400 level is a key support along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7367 low to 0.7435 high.

 

As long as the pair is above the 0.7400 support area, it could make an upside move above 0.7430 resistance in the near term. If not, it could retest the 0.7365 low.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Extend Losses Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Could Extend Losses Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro remained in a bearish zone below the 1.1700 level against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance at 1.1672 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending July 07, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of 225K as there was a decline in claims from the last revised reading of 232K to 214K.

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending July 07, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a decline in claims from the last reading of 231K to 225K.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of 225K as there was a decline in claims from the last revised reading of 232K to 214K. Considering at the 4-week moving average, there was a decrease of 1,750 to 223,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 224,750.

 

The EUR/USD pair was under pressure and it seems like there are chances of more losses towards the 1.1620 level in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a major downside move from well above the 1.1740 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1700 and 1.1675 support levels to settle well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.1649 and later it started an upside correction. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1758 high to 1.1649 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 1.1700 resistance.

 

Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1758 high to 1.1649 low also acted as a resistance. Additionally, there is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance at 1.1672 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

 

Therefore, if the pair fails to move above the 1.1675 and 1.1700 resistance levels, there is a risk of a downside break towards the 1.1620 support in the near term. Below 1.1620, the next supports sits at 1.1600.

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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Could Decline Further Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Could Decline Further Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound failed to break the 1.3280-1.3300 resistance area and declined against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.3225 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance report for June 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of -2% as there was a rise in the RICS Housing Price by 2% in June 2018.

 

UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance report for June 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for a decline of around 2% the RICS Housing Price in June 2018.

 

The actual was above the forecast of -2% as there was a rise in the RICS Housing Price by 2% in June 2018. It was also better when compared with the last decline of -3%. The report added that:

 

Activity indicators suggest subdued picture in the market will persist, improvement in new properties coming to the market likely to be very short-lived, and rent expectations consistent with the lack of new supply.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently under bearish pressure and it seems like the pair could extend losses towards the 1.3160 level in the near term.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started an upside correction from the 1.3189 low against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded above the 1.3250 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 1.3280-1.3300 zone.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

As a result, the pair declined sharply and broke the 1.3250 support and the 100 hourly SMA. The pair also broke the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3189 low to 1.3300 high. It is currently trading near the 1.3289 swing low and it remains at a risk of more losses.

 

A downside break could push the pair towards the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last wave from the 1.3189 low to 1.3300 high at 1.3162. Below this, the pair may perhaps test the 1.3150 level.

 

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3220 resistance, above which, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.3225 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Gaining Momentum Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Gaining Momentum Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar is placed in a bullish trend above the 110.80 support area against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a key bullish trend line formed with support at 110.85 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Machinery New Orders figure for May 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +8.6% as there was a rise in orders by 16.5% (YoY).

 

Japan’s Machinery New Orders

Recently in Japan, the Machinery New Orders figure for May 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for a rise of around 8.6% in orders in May 2018 compared with the last same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of +8.6% as there was a rise in orders by 16.5%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 3.7% in orders, which was less than the forecast of -5.5%. However, it was well below the last reading of +10.1%.

 

The USD/JPY pair is moving higher and it seems like the pair may perhaps continue to move higher above the 111.20 level in the near term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a nice upside move from the 110.40 swing low against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair jumped above the 110.80 and 111.00 resistance levels to move into a bullish zone above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair traded as high as 111.35 before starting a downside correction. It declined and tested the 110.80 support area where buyers appeared. It again started moving higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.35 high to 110.76 low.

 

The pair is placed nicely in a bullish zone and it seems like it could move above the 111.20 level soon to retest the 111.35 high. Above this, the pair will most likely test 111.50. An initial resistance sits around the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.35 high to 110.76 low at 111.21.

 

On the downside, the pair remains supported near the 111.00 level and a key bullish trend line with support at 110.85 on the hourly chart.

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Gold Price Could Resume Upside Above $1,260 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Could Resume Upside Above $1,260 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price traded as high as $1,265 before starting a downside correction against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at $1,255 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for June 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0% as there was a decline in the CPI in June 2018 by 0.1%.

Chinese CPI

Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for June 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking for no change in the CPI in June 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 0% as there was a decline in the CPI in June 2018 by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.9% in the CPI, more than the last +1.8%. On the positive side, the Producer Price Index in June 2018 rose 4.7% (YoY), more than the forecast of +4.5%.

 

Gold price is currently correcting lower, but it remains well supported above the $1,255 and $1,252 levels.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a decent upside wave in gold price from the $1,251 low against the US Dollar. The price traded higher and broke the $1,258 and $1,260 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price traded as high as $1,265 and later it started a downside correction. It moved down and broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,251 low to $1,265 high. However, declines were protected by the $1,255-1,256 support zone.

 

There is also a major bullish trend line in place with support at $1,255 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The same trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,251 low to $1,265 high.

 

Therefore, it seems like the price remains well supported above the $1,255 level. A break above the $1,260 level could open the doors for an upside move towards $1,265.

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EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Could Surged Above 130.00 Vs Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Could Surged Above 130.00 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The Euro is trading with a bullish bias and is placed nicely above the 129.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a crucial bullish pattern formed with support at 129.75 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Current Account report for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of ¥1,240B as there was a trade surplus of ¥1,938B.

 

Japan’s Current Account

Today in Japan, the Current Account report for May 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was looking for a trade surplus of around ¥1,240B in May 2018 compared with the last reading of ¥1,845B.

 

However, the actual result was above the market forecast of ¥1,240B as there was a trade surplus of ¥1,938B. It was also above the last reading of ¥1,845B. Moreover, the Bank lending figure for June 2018 (YoY) was, released by Bank of Japan. It posted an increase of 2.2%, more than the last 2.0%.

 

The EUR/JPY pair is currently positioned in the bullish zone and it seems like it may continue to move higher above 130.00 and 130.15 in the near term.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a decent support base above the 128.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair started an upside move, traded above the 129.00 and 129.50 resistance levels, and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

The pair is currently trading above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 129.96 high to 129.60 low. It indicates that the pair may perhaps continue to move higher above the 129.96 high in the near term.

 

The next stop could be the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last decline from the 129.96 high to 129.60 low at 130.04. Above this, the pair could even trade towards the 130.20 level and the 1.618 Fib extension level of the same decline.

 

Moreover, there is a crucial bullish pattern formed with support at 129.75 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY. Therefore, dips remain well supported above the 129.75 and 129.60 levels in the near term.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Upsides Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Eyeing Further Upsides Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro traded higher this week and settled above the 1.1650 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a key contracting triangle in place with support at 1.1675 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending July 01, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 225K as there was a rise in claims from the last revised reading of 228K to 231K.

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending July 01, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a rise in claims from the last reading of 218K to 220K.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of 225K as there was a rise in claims from the last revised reading of 228K to 231K. Looking at the 4-week moving average, there was an increase of 2,250 to 224,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 222,250.

 

The EUR/USD pair remained in a bullish zone and it seems like the pair may continue to trade higher above the 1.1700 level in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a decent support base below the 1.1620 level and moved higher against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair climbed above the 1.1650 and 1.1700 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded as high as 1.1719 before it started a downside correction. It declined and broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1630 low to 1.1719 high. However, the decline was protected by the 1.1670-75 support area.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1630 low to 1.1719 high also acted as a support. At the moment, it seems like there is a key contracting triangle in place with support at 1.1675 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

 

As long as the pair is holding the 1.1675 support, it remains in a bullish zone and it could continue to move higher above the 1.1700 and 1.1720 levels.

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