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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Is Likely To Recover Above 1.1420 Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Is Likely To Recover Above 1.1420 Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro recovered slightly after trading towards the 1.1300 level against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a short-term breakout pattern forming with resistance near 1.1405 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Housing Starts figure for July 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 1.260M as the Housing Starts came in at 1.168M (MoM).

US Housing Starts

Recently in the US, the Housing Starts figure for July 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce. The market was looking for a change from the last reading of 1.173M to 1.260M compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 1.260M as the Housing Starts came in at 1.168M. Moreover, the last reading was revised to 1.158M. Looking the Building Permits, there was a rise from the last revised reading of 1.292M to 1.311M.

 

The EUR/USD pair started a decent recovery recently and it managed to move above the 1.1340 and 1.1350 resistance levels.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro declined heavily during the past few days and traded below the 1.1450 support area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even traded below the 1.1380 and 1.1350 support levels to challenge the 1.1300 support.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.1300 and later started an upside correction. It gained traction and moved above the 1.1350 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. However, it found resistance near 1.1400 and later dropped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1300 low to 1.1408 high.

 

However, downsides were protected by the 1.1350 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1300 low to 1.1408 high. At the moment, it seems like there is a short-term breakout pattern forming with resistance near 1.1405 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

 

The pair is likely to gain momentum above 1.1400 for more gains in the near term. On the flip side, a downside break below 1.1350 could push the pair back in a bearish zone.

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GBP/USD Forecast –Can British Pound Recover Above 1.2740 Vs US Dollar?

GBP/USD Forecast –Can British Pound Recover Above 1.2740 Vs US Dollar?

  • – The British Pound declined heavily and traded towards the 1.2660 level against the US Dollar.
  • – To initiate a recovery, there was a break above a short-term contracting triangle at 1.2700 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the US, the Retail Sales report for July 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +0.1% as there was a rise of 0.5% in sales in July 2018 (MoM).

 

US Retail Sales

Recently in the US, the Retail Sales report for July 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was positioned for a rise of around 0.1% in sales in July 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of +0.1% as there was a rise of 0.5% in sales in July 2018. Looking at the Retail Sales ex Autos, there was a rise of 0.6%, more than the forecast of 0.3% and also more than the last revised reading of 0.2%.

 

However, the GBP/USD pair started an upside correction and it seems like the pair may perhaps move above the 1.2725 and 1.2740 resistance levels.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound fell sharply during the past few days from the 1.2950 swing high against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.2820, 1.2710 and 1.2680 support levels to move deep into the bearish zone.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair is trading well below the 100 hourly simple moving average and formed a low at 1.2661. It is currently correcting higher and moved above the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2827 high to 1.2611 low.

 

More importantly, there was a break above a short-term contracting triangle at 1.2700 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. The next resistance on the upside for buyers is near the 1.2740 level, which was a support earlier.

 

Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2827 high to 1.2611 low is positioned near the 1.2744 level. Therefore, it won’t be easy for GBP/USD to move above 1.2740-1.2744. Above this, the pair will most likely surge towards 1.2800. On the downside, supports are at 1.2700 and 1.2680.

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Gold Price Breaks Key Support Near $1,200 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Breaks Key Support Near $1,200 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price declined recently and broke the $1,200 support area against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a crucial bearish trend line formed with resistance at $1,192 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the hosing price index for July 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +5.5% as there was a rise in the HPI by 5.8%.

Chinese Housing Price Index

Recently in China, the hosing price index for July 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The market was looking for a rise of 5.5% in the index in July 2018 compared with the last rise of 5%.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of +5.5% as there was a rise in the HPI by 5.8%. Moreover, in Australia, the Wage Price Index for Q2 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The outcome was line with the forecast as there was a rise of 0.6% (QoQ).

 

Gold price is currently under a lot of pressure and it is likely to decline below the $1,185 support level in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price faced a solid resistance near the $1,218-1,220 zone recently against the US Dollar. The price started a major downside move, broke the $1,205 and $1,200 support levels, and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

An intermediate low was formed at $1,191 before the price corrected higher. However, it failed to break the $1,200 resistance and declined below the $1,190 support area. It also broke the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last wave from the $1,191 low to $1,198 high.

 

Therefore, there are chances of more losses below $1,188 in the near term. It could even break the 1.618 Fib extension level of the last wave from the $1,191 low to $1,198 high at $1,187.

 

On the upside, there is a crucial bearish trend line formed with resistance at $1,192 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. Only a break and close above the trend line, followed by a close above $1,200 could open the doors for a recovery.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

AUD/USD Forecast – Can Aussie Dollar Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Aussie Dollar declined heavily and traded towards the 0.7250 support against the US Dollar.
  • – Later, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7270 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
  • – Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for July 2018 was released.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 6 as there was a rise in the confidence index to 7.

Australia’s National Australia Bank Business Confidence

Recently in Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence for July 2018 was released. The market was positioned for no change in the National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index from the last reading of 6.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 6 as there was a rise in the confidence index to 7. However, the National Australia Bank Business Conditions index posted a decline from the last reading of 15 to 12, whereas the market was looking for no change.

 

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating above the 0.7250 support area and it could correct higher towards 0.7300-0.7320 in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar was under a lot of pressure this past week after forming a top near the 0.7410 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair declined heavily, broke the 0.7350, 0.7320 and 0.7280 support levels, and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair found support above the 0.7250 level and it later started consolidating losses. It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7270 on the hourly chart. However, there was no momentum above the 0.7290-0.7300 zone.

 

An initial resistance is the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7452 high to 0.7256 low. A push above the 0.7310-20 zone could open the doors for a larger upward move towards the 0.7350 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7452 high to 0.7256 low.

 

On the other hand, if the pair fails to hold the 0.7250-55 support area, it may perhaps decline towards the 0.7220 support level in the near term.

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NZD/USD Forecast – Can New Zealand Dollar Recover Above 0.6600 Vs US Dollar?

NZD/USD Forecast – Can New Zealand Dollar Recover Above 0.6600 Vs US Dollar?

  • – The New Zealand Dollar declined heavily and broke the 0.6620 support area against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major declining channel formed with resistance near 0.6590 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for July 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the index by 0.7%.

 

New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI)

Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for July 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.6% in the FPI in July 2018, more than the last +0.5%.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of +0.6% as there was a rise in the index by 0.7%. The report added that:

 

Vegetable prices rose 9.2 percent in the month, with higher prices for fresh lettuce (up 77 percent), tomatoes (up 30 percent), and broccoli (up 24 percent) making the largest contributions. After adjusting for seasonal effects, vegetable prices rose 3.8 percent.

 

The NZD/USD pair is currently attempting a recovery, but it won’t be easy for buyers to clear the 0.6590 and 0.6600 resistance levels.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar was under a lot of pressure this past week as it fell sharply from the 0.6740 swing high against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair declined, broke many support levels like 0.6680, 0.6620 and 0.6600, and also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 0.6561 and it is currently correcting higher. It broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6616 high to 0.6561 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 0.6590-0.6600 resistance zone.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.6616 high to 0.6561 low acted as a resistance. More importantly, there is a major declining channel formed with resistance near 0.6590 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.

 

Therefore, the pair must break the 0.6590 and 0.6600 resistance levels to stage a decent recovery in the near term. On the downside, a break below the 0.6560 support could push NZD/USD towards 0.6525.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains At Risk of More Declines Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Remains At Risk of More Declines Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro failed to move past the 1.1615-20 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1602 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Producer Price Index for July 2018 was released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +0.2% as there was no change in the PPI in July 2018 (MoM).

US Producer Price Index

Recently in the US, the Producer Price Index for July 2018 was released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor. The market was looking for a rise of 0.2% in the PPI in July 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of +0.2 as there was no change in the PPI in July 2018. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 3.3% in the PPI, which was less than the forecast of +3.4% and also below the last +3.4%.

 

The EUR/USD pair started a minor upside move after trading as low as 1.1515, but it is likely to face many hurdles on the upside.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro faced a lot of sellers near the 1.1615-20 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started declining and broke many support levels such as 1.1600, 1.1580 and 1.1540 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

During the decline, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1602 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair traded as low as 1.1515 and it is currently correcting higher towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1618 high to 1.1515 low.

 

On the upside, there are many resistances near the 1.1555 level. There is also a bearish trend line in place near 1.1552, which coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1618 high to 1.1515 low.

 

Therefore, if the pair corrects higher, it is likely to face sellers near the 1.1540 and 1.1550 levels. On the downside, the 1.1520 and 1.1515 are supports, below which, the price could test the 1.1500 level.

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GBP/USD Forecast –British Pound Recovery Faces Hurdles Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast –British Pound Recovery Faces Hurdles Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound tumbled recently and broke the 1.2920 support area against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 1.2935 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance for July 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
  • – The outcome was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 4% in the RICS Housing Price Balance.

 

UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Recently in the UK, the RICS Housing Price Balance for July 2018 was released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market was positioned for a rise of around 4% in the RICS Housing Price Balance.

 

The actual was around the market forecast, as there was a rise of 4% in the RICS Housing Price Balance. The current reading was also above the last revised reading of 3% (up from 2%). The report added that:

 

Lettings data continues to underline the impact of tax changes on supply of property to rent. Sales market remains broadly flat at the national level.

 

The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend and it seems like the current correction wave could face a lot of sellers on the upside near 1.2900 and 1.2920.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound declined heavily from well above the 1.3000 handle against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.2950, 1.2920 and 1.2900 support levels to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.2851 and it is currently correcting higher. It recovered above the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2959 high to 1.2851 low. There was also a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2875.

 

It seems like the pair may perhaps correct above the 1.2890 level in the near term. However, it is likely to face a lot of sellers near the 1.2900 and 1.2920 levels. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2959 high to 1.2851 low is also at 1.2905.

 

Finally, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 1.2935 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, recoveries are likely to face many hurdles on the upside near 1.2900 and 1.2920.

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Gold Price Could Break Higher Toward $1,220 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Could Break Higher Toward $1,220 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price is slowly recovering and is currently trading above $1,205 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at $1,214 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for July 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of $39.33B as there was a trade surplus of $28.05B (YoY).

Chinese Trade Balance

Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for July 2018 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was looking for a trade surplus of $39.33B in July 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of $39.33B as there was a trade surplus of $28.05B (YoY). Imports of goods and services in July 2018 increased 20.9% (YoY), more than the forecast of +6.9%. Exports of goods and services in July 2018 increased 12.2% (YoY), more than the forecast of +10.0%.

 

Gold price is slowly recovering, but it must break the $1,214-1,215 resistance area to gain upside momentum in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

After a major dip, gold price formed a decent support near the $1,202 level and recovered against the US Dollar. The price started moving higher, traded above $1,210 and later formed an intermediate low near the $1,207 level.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price recently broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,216 high to $1,208 low. It is also trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average and $1,210. Therefore, the price may continue to move higher above the $1,212 level in the near term.

 

However, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at $1,214 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The price must break the trend line resistance and $1,215 to gain upside momentum in the near term.

 

Above $1,215, the price may perhaps move above towards the $1,220 level. On the flip side, if there is a downside correction, the price will most likely find support near the $1,210 and $1,208 levels.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Facing Key Resistances Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Facing Key Resistances Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar tested the 111.10-15 support zone and recovered against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.55 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Overall Household Spending for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -1.6% as there was a 1.2% decline (YoY) in the spending.

 

Japan’s Overall Household Spending

Recently in Japan, the Overall Household Spending for June 2018 was released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The market was positioned for a decline of around 1.6% in the spending compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of -1.6% as there was a 1.2% decline (YoY) in the spending. This was also better than the last decline of 3.9%. Moreover, the labor cash earnings in June 2018 increased 3.6% (YoY), more than the market forecast of 1.7%.

 

The USD/JPY pair is currently recovering, but it is facing a tough hurdle near the 111.40 and 111.55 levels.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar declined recently and broke the 111.80 support level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 111.50 support and traded as towards the 111.10-15 support zone where buyers appeared.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair started an upside move and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.87 high to 110.11 low. However, the upside move was capped by the 111.50 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the same decline.

 

It seems like there is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near 111.35 on the hourly chart. Above this, the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned near the 111.55 level. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line formed with resistance near 111.55 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.

 

Therefore, if the pair moves further higher, it is likely to face a strong resistance near 111.50-55. Above this, the pair may well rise towards the 112.00 level. On the flip side, if there is a downside move, the pair could revisit the 111.10 support area.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Facing Tough Challenge Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Facing Tough Challenge Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar recovered recently and tested a key resistance at 0.7410 against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7370 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
  • – Recently in Australia, the TD Securities Inflation report for July 2018 was released by The University of Melbourne – Faculty of Economics and Commerce.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0% (MoM) as there was a rise in the TD Securities Inflation by 0.1%.

Australia’s TD Securities Inflation

Recently in Australia, the TD Securities Inflation report for July 2018 was released by The University of Melbourne – Faculty of Economics and Commerce. The market was positioned for no change in the TD Securities Inflation compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 0% (MoM) as there was a rise in the TD Securities Inflation by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 2%, similar to the last reading.

 

The AUD/USD pair is currently struggling to move above the 0.7400 and 0.7410 resistance levels, which could result in a downside move.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a decent support near the 0.7345 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 0.7360 and 0.7380 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7440 high to 0.7348 low. Moreover, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7370 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.

 

However, the pair struggled to clear the 0.7400 and 0.7410 resistance levels. There was also no close above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7440 high to 0.7348 low.

 

At the moment, the pair is struggling to close above the 100 hourly SMA, and is trading near the 0.7395 level. It seems like the pair may correct lower towards the broken resistance at 0.7375. Dips in AUD/USD remains supported near 0.7375 and 0.7360, but it has to break the 0.7400 barrier for more gains.

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