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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Upsides Remain Limited Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Upsides Remain Limited Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound declined heavily recently and moved below 1.3400 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance at 1.3420 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May 2018 (prelim) released by the Markit Economics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 56.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 56.5 to 56.6.

 

US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

Recently in the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May 2018 (prelim) released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for no change in the PMI from the last reading of 56.5.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 56.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 56.5 to 56.6. Moreover, the Flash U.S. Composite Output Index increased from the last reading of 54.9 to 55.7, and the U.S. Services Business Activity Index climbed to 55.7 from 54.6.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently correcting higher, but upsides are likely to be capped by the 1.2400 and 1.2420 resistance levels.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound was under a lot of pressure this week as it started a major downside move from well above 1.2500 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair tumbled and declined below the 1.2450 and 1.2400 support levels, and it even settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.3304 and it is currently correcting higher. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3491 high to 1.3304 low. However, there are many resistances on the upside near 1.2400.

 

An initial resistance is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.3491 high to 1.3304 low at 1.3398. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line formed with resistance at 1.3420 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

 

Therefore, if the pair moves higher from the current levels, it is likely to find sellers on the upside near 1.3400 and 1.3420.

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Crude Oil Price Approaching Crucial Support Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price Approaching Crucial Support Vs US Dollar

  • – Crude oil price traded as high as $72.83 before correcting lower against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a crucial bullish trend line formed with support near $71.60 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock figure for the week ending May 18, 2018 was released.
  • – As per the report, there was a drop in the crude oil inventories by 1.300 million barrels.

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock figure for the week ending May 18, 2018 was released. The market was positioned for a decline in the crude oil inventories by around 0.80 million barrels.

 

However, the actual result was positive as there was a drop in the crude oil inventories by 1.300 million barrels. Looking at the gasoline stockpiles, there was a rise in inventories by around 980,000 barrels, and inventories of distillates saw a draw of 1.3 million barrels.

 

There was a downside move in crude oil price, but it seems like the price is approaching a crucial support above $71.40-50.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

There were further gains in crude oil price above the $70.00 level against the US Dollar. The price traded above the $71.00 and $72.00 resistance levels. The upside move was positive as the price traded close to the $73.00 level and formed a high near $72.83.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

A downside correction was initiated recently and the price moved below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $71.27 low to $72.83 high. Sellers even managed to push the price below the $72.00 support area and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

At the moment, the price is trading just below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $71.27 low to $72.83 high. On the downside, there is a crucial bullish trend line formed with support near $71.60 on the hourly chart.

 

Therefore, if the price corrects lower, it is likely to find support near the $71.60 and $71.50 levels. Should there be a downside break below $71.50, the price could correct further towards the $71.00 level.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Correcting Lower Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Correcting Lower Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar started a downside correction after trading towards 111.40 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a declining channel in place with resistance at 111.00 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of ¥405.6B as the trade surplus was ¥626.0B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for April 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥405.6B in April 2018, compared with the last ¥797.3B.

 

The actual result was above the market forecast of ¥405.6B as the trade surplus was ¥626.0B. Looking at the Imports of goods and services, there was an increase of 5.9%, less than the forecast of +9.6% (YoY). Exports of goods and services rose 7.8%, less than the market expectation of +8.1%.

 

The USD/JPY pair seems to be correcting lower towards the 110.60 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar gained a lot of traction during the past few days and moved above the 110.00 and 110.50 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 111.00 level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair traded as high as 111.39 before starting a downside correction. It moved down and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.60 low to 111.39 high. There was even a close below the 111.00 support level.

 

There is also a declining channel in place with resistance at 111.00 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The pair may continue to trade towards the 110.70 support, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 110.60 low to 111.39 high, and the 100 hourly SMA.

 

However, the most important support is near the last swing low of 110.60. Therefore, any further declines in USD/JPY are likely to find supports on the downside near 110.70 and 110.60.

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NZD/USD Forecast – Can New Zealand Dollar Hold This Support Vs US Dollar?

NZD/USD Forecast – Can New Zealand Dollar Hold This Support Vs US Dollar?

  • – The New Zealand Dollar struggled to move above the 0.6935 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 0.6885 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Retail Sales report for Q1 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +1.0% as sales increased only 0.1% in Q1 2018.

 

New Zealand Retail Sales

Today in New Zealand, the Retail Sales report for Q1 2018 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a rise of around 1% in sales in Q1 2018, compared with the previous quarter.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of +1.0% as sales increased only 0.1% in Q1 2018. It was also well below the last revised reading of +1.4%. Looking at the Retail Sales ex Autos figure, there was a rise of 0.6%, less than the last +1.8%. The report added that:

 

Electrical and electronic goods had the largest dollar volume increase in this series, up 5.4 percent. Trends for the sales volume in this industry have been rising over the past 10 years; coincidently price changes in this industry have generally fallen over the same period.

 

The NZD/USD pair declined and is currently trading near a major support area around 0.6880-90, which holds the key for the next move.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar managed to start an upside move from the 0.6855 low against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair gained traction, moved above the 0.6880 and 0.6900 resistance levels, and also settled above 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

However, the pair failed to move above the $0.7935-40 resistance area. Later, it corrected lower and moved below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6871 low to 0.6932 high.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

On the downside, there are many supports around the 0.6880 level. There is also a major bullish trend line in place with support at 0.6885 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6871 low to 0.6932 high is at 0.6894.

 

Lastly, the 100 hourly SMA is positioned near 0.6890 to act as a strong support. Therefore, as long as the pair is above the 0.6880 support and the 100 hourly SMA, it could bounce back above 0.6900. On the flip side, below 0.6880, the pair might retest 0.6850.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Correct Higher Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro declined sharply this week and traded below 1.1850 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a key contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1790 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey Index was released for May 2018.
  • – The outcome was better than the forecast of 21.0 as there was a rise in the index to 34.4.

US Philadelphia Fed Survey

Recently in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Survey Index was released for May 2018. The market was looking for a minor decline from the last reading of 23.2 to 21.0 in May 2018.

 

The actual result was better than the forecast of 21.0 as there was a rise in the index to 34.4. There were more than 43% of the manufacturers who reported gains in overall activity in May 2018. The report added:

 

Both current new orders and shipments indexes improved this month, increasing 22 points and 2 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes remained positive, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders.

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating around the 1.1800 level and it seems like it may correct a few pips higher in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro faced a lot of selling interest this week and declined below 1.1900 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair tumbled and even broke the 1.1850 support level to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

There was even a spike below the 1.1800 support, and a low was formed at 1.1763. Later, the pair started an upside correction and moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1763 low.

 

However, the upside move was capped by the 1.1830 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1763 low. There was a minor downside reaction, and at the moment, the pair is consolidating around 1.1800. More importantly, there is a key contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1790 on the hourly chart.

 

In the short term, it seems like the pair may break the 1.1810 resistance and correct higher. The next hurdles on the upside for buyers are near 1.1830, 1.1840 and 1.1850.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar may Trade Further Higher Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar may Trade Further Higher Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar gained upside momentum and moved above the 0.7500 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – The AUD/USD pair is currently testing a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7545 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in Australia, the Employment Change for April 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 20K as there was a change of 22.6K in the employment.

Australia’s Employment Change

Recently in Australia, the Employment Change for April 2018 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 20K in the employment compared with the last reading of 4.9K.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 20K as there was a change of 22.6K in the employment. However, the unemployment rate posted a rise from the last reading of 5.5% to 5.6%. The report stated that:

 

Unemployment increased 10,600 to 741,000. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 17,100 to 506,100 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 27,600 to 234,900.

 

The AUD/USD pair spiked higher above 0.7520 and it seems like the pair may continue to move higher in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar found strong buying interest near the 0.7440 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started an upside move and traded above the 0.7460 and 0.7500 resistance levels to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair also moved above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7566 high to 0.7447 low. At the moment, the AUD/USD pair is currently testing a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7545 on the hourly chart.

 

The pair has to break the trend line resistance, and settle above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7566 high to 0.7447 low for more gains.

 

A successful close above 0.7545 and 0.7550 could clear the path for a push towards the 0.7580 and 0.7600 resistance levels. On the downside, supports are seen at 0.7520 and 0.7500 where buyers are likely to protect declines.

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Remains in Uptrend above 110.00 Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Remains in Uptrend above 110.00 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar placed nicely in a bullish zone above the 110.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 110.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of 0% (QoQ) (Prelim) as there was a decline in the GDP by 0.2%.

 

Japan’s Gross Domestic Product

Recently in Japan, the Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2018 was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was positioned for no change in the GDP in Q1 2018 compared with the previous quarter.

 

The result was below the market forecast of 0% (QoQ) (Prelim) as there was a decline in the GDP by 0.2%. In terms of the yearly change, Japan’s GDP declined by 0.6% (Prelim), which was below the forecast of 0%.

 

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a positive bias above the 110.00 level and it may continue to move higher in the near term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar formed a support base near the 109.30 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started an upside move and traded above the 109.50 and 110.00 resistance levels. It even settled above 110.00 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair traded as high as 110.45 before it faced sellers. It started a downside correction and declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.81 low to 110.45 high. However, there are many supports on the downside above 110.00.

 

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 110.20 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 109.81 low to 110.45 high is currently acting as a support near 110.20.

 

Therefore, as long as the pair is above 110.00, it remains in an uptrend. On the upside, an initial resistance is at 110.45, followed by the 110.80 level. On the downside, supports are at 110.20, 110.00 and 109.80.

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Gold Price Could Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Could Correct Lower Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price is currently correcting lower and is trading below the $1,318 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a short-term contracting triangle pattern with support at $1,317 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Retail Sales report for March 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +10% as there was a rise in sales by 9.4%.

China’s Retail Sales

Recently in China, the Retail Sales report for March 2018 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was looking for a rise in sales by 10% in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of +10% as there was a rise in sales by 9.4%. Looking at the Industrial production, there was a rise by 7% in the production, more than the forecast of +6.3%. On the other hand, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at 7%, less than the forecast of 7.4%.

 

At the moment, Gold price is trading in a bearish zone and it could continue to decline towards the $1,310 and $1,305 support levels.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a decent upside move above the $1,320 level in gold price against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $1,325 before starting a downside correction. It declined and traded below the $1,320 support level to start a downside correction.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,304 low to $1,325 high. More importantly, there was a break below a short-term contracting triangle pattern with support at $1,317 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

 

Sellers pushed the price below $1,315 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It seems like the price may decline further and it could even break the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,304 low to $1,325 high.

 

On the downside, the next major supports are near the $1,310 and $1,305 levels. Below this last, the price could even test the $1,300 handle.

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EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Looks Set to Break 131.00 Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The Euro started a nice upside move and traded above the 130.00 level against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
  • – The outcome was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1% (MoM).

 

Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

Today in Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for April 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was looking for a rise of around 0.1% in the index in April 2018, compared with the previous month.

 

However, the actual result was around the market forecast as there was a rise in the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index by 0.1%. Looking at the yearly change, there was a rise of 2% in the index, which was same as the forecast, but less than the last +2.1%.

 

The EUR/JPY pair is currently moving higher and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00 in the near term.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro declined below 130.00 this past week against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair traded as low as 129.20 before buyers appeared and protected more declines. The pair started an upside move and traded above the 129.50 and 130.00 resistance levels.

 

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis Euro Japanese Yen

 

It settled above the 130.00 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a minor downside correction once, but a key bullish trend line with current support at 130.40 on the hourly chart of EUR/JPY prevented declines.

 

The pair is now trading higher and is currently above the last swing high at 130.75. It means it may test the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low.

 

The overall bias is very positive and it seems like the pair may rise further above 131.00. It could even test the 1.618 Fib extension level of the last correction from the 130.76 high to 129.99 low at 131.23. On the downside, supports are at 130.40 and the 100 hourly SMA.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely to Recover Further Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely to Recover Further Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro found support near 1.1820 after declining heavily against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 05, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was better than the forecast of 218K as there was no change in claims from 211K.

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 05, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a rise in claims from the last reading of 211K to 218K.

 

The actual result was better than the forecast of 218K as there was no change in claims from 211K. Looking at the Counting Jobless Claims, it came in at 1.790M, more than the forecast of 1.778M, and also more than the last 1.760M.

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently moving higher and it seems like it may recover further above 1.1920 in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro declined heavily during the past few days from well above 1.2000 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded below a few support levels such as 1.1950 and 1.1900, and it even settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair found support near the 1.1820 level and started an upside move. It broke the 1.1850 resistance level and even cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the hourly chart.

 

The upside move was strong as the pair even traded above the 1.1900 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It traded as high as 1.1947 before correcting lower. However, there is a major support near the 1.1900 level and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1822 low to 1.1947 high.

 

There can be a minor downside reaction in EUR/USD in the short term but the pair remains supported above 1.1880-1.1900. On the upside, a break above 1.1920 and 1.1940 is needed for more gains towards 1.2000 in the near term.

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