NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Remains On Top Vs Dollar

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Remains On Top Vs Dollar

  • – The New Zealand Dollar moved higher against the US Dollar, and currently well above the 0.7010 resistance.
  • – There is a monster bullish trend line with support at 0.7020 formed on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
  • – The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (March 23, 2017) was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in which the central bank announced no change in rate from 1.75%.

 

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Today during the Asian session, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (March 23, 2017) was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The market was not expecting any reduction in rates from 1.75%, and the result was the same.

 

The outcome was positive, as helped the New Zealand Dollar to remain above the 0.7000 handle against the US Dollar. A few key points from the official release – “Global headline inflation has increased, partly due to a rise in commodity prices, although oil prices have fallen more recently”, “Quarterly GDP was weaker than expected in the December quarter, but some of this is considered to be due to temporary factors” and “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.”

 

Overall, the New Zealand Dollar remains supported for more gains above the 0.7050 level in the near term with a chance of a move towards 0.7100.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar managed to stay in the bullish trend with a move above 0.7010 against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair was successful in breaking the 100 hourly simple moving average at 0.7030, resulting in a positive bias.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand US Dollar

 

The pair is trading above the 0.7010 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there is a monster bullish trend line with support at 0.7020 formed on the hourly chart. So, we can say that the pair is well above the 0.7010-0.7020 support area, and looking to extend gains.

 

It is already above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7072 high to 0.7025 low. So, there is a chance of it moving higher towards a bearish trend line at 0.7060 on the same chart. A break above it could ignite a move towards the 0.7083 level. It represents the 1.236 extension of the last drop from the 0.7072 high to 0.7025 low.

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USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar To Extend Declines Vs Swiss Franc

  • – The US Dollar fell sharply against the Swiss Franc recently after clearing the 1.0060 support area.
  • – The USD/CHF pair broke a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0080 on the 4-hours chart.
  • – The Swiss Trade Balance for Feb 2017 released by the Federal Customs Administration posted a trade surplus of 3.11B, less than the forecast of 3.850B.

 

Swiss Trade Balance

Today in Switzerland, the Trade Balance for Feb 2017 was released by the Federal Customs Administration. The market was expecting the balance amount between import and export to post a surplus of 3.850B in Feb 2017, compared with the previous 4.73B.

 

The outcome a bit lower than the forecast, as the Swiss trade surplus in Feb 2017 was 3.11B. The last reading was revised to 4.83B. The Swiss Exports of goods and services in Feb 2017 declined by 2.2%, compared with the last -3.6%. Moreover, the Swiss Imports of goods and services in Feb 2017 increased 2.9%, compared with the last -3.9%.

 

Overall, the result neutral, and might not have a negative impact on the Swiss franc, which means USD/CHF might continue heading lower towards 0.9920.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar was under a lot of bearish pressure recently against the Swiss Franc, as it moved below 1.00. Earlier, the USD/CHF failed to hold an important support area near 1.0060. It resulted in a sharp drop of more than 100 pips.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis Dollar Franc

 

During the downside move, the pair broke a major bullish trend line with support at 1.0080 on the 4-hours chart. It also moved below the 100 simple moving average on the same chart at 1.0085. It traded as low as 0.9942 from where it recovered. However, the recovery failed near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0170 high to 0.9942 low.

 

The pair is once again moving down, and might retest the recent low of 0.9942. And, if the US Dollar sellers remain in action, there is even a chance of a break below 0.9940 for a move towards 0.9920 or 0.9900. On the upside, the 1.00 is the most important resistance area where sellers might appear.

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EUR/GBP Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs British Pound?

EUR/GBP Forecast – Can Euro Hold This Vs British Pound?

  • – The Euro after failing near the 0.8788 level against the British Pound moved down.
  • – The EUR/GBP pair is currently trading near a bullish trend line with support at 0.8650 on the 4-hours chart.
  • – The German Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a rise of 0.2% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

German Producer Price Index

Today in the Euro Zone, the German Producer Price Index for Feb 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was expecting the average changes in prices in the German primary markets to increase by +0.2% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

The outcome in line with the forecast, as the German Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in Feb 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 3.1% in Feb 2017, compared with Feb 2016. It was more than the forecast of +2.9%, and more than the last +2.4%. The report mentioned that “Energy prices increased by 5.4%, though prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of petroleum products increased by 22.7%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 7.5%’.

 

Overall, the result was better for the Euro, which may help EUR/GBP in gaining bids near 0.8650 in the short term.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The British Pound struggled a lot against the Euro, as EUR/GBP climbed above a couple of important resistances like 0.8600 and 0.8700. The pair traded towards 0.8800, but failed to break the 0.8788 level. There were two attempts to clear 0.8788, but the Euro buyers failed to surpass it.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

 

As a result, there was a downside move, and the pair moved below 0.8750. Later, it broke a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 0.8720. And, finally there was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8402 low to 0.8788 high.

 

At the moment, the pair is trading near a bullish trend line with support at 0.8650 on the 4-hours chart. The same trend line is also above the 100 hourly simple moving average at 0.8640. So, we can say that the pair is trading above a major support at 0.8650-0.8640. It might bounce or break it for more losses.

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GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Looking To Gain Traction Vs Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Looking To Gain Traction Vs Dollar

  • – The British Pound after a nasty decline found support near 1.2140 against the US Dollar.
  • – The GBP/USD pair is currently recovering, and facing a major resistance trend line at 1.2180 on the hourly chart.
  • – The UK’s Trade Balance figure for Jan 2017 released by National Statistics posted a trade deficit of £-2.447B, less than the forecast of £-2.50B.

 

UK Trade Balance

Today in the UK, the Trade Balance figure for Jan 2017 was released by National Statistics. The market was expecting the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services to be £-2.50B in Jan 2017.

 

The outcome was better than the forecast, as the UK’s Trade Balance posted a trade deficit of £-2.447B. The good trade balance was also above the forecast with deficit of £-10.833B in Jan 2017. The report mentioned that “Between the 3 months to October 2016 and the 3 months to January 2017, the total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed by £4.7 billion to £6.4 billion”. In another release, the UK Industrial Production released by the National Statistics posted a rise of 3.2% in Jan 2017, compared with Jan 2016. It was a point lower than the forecast of 3.3%.

 

It looks like the British Pound is attempting a recovery, but might struggle to break the trend line resistance near 1.2180.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound struggled a lot lately and moved below 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair fell towards 1.2140 where it found support and started a consolidation. The pair traded in a range for some before moving higher.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis Pound US Dollar

 

It already made an attempt to settle above the 1.2200 handle, but failed. There was also a failure near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2300 high to 1.2133 low. At the moment, the pair is struggling to clear a major resistance trend line at 1.2180 on the hourly chart.

 

If there is a break above 1.2180, the pair might test the second trend line resistance at 1.2195, which also coincides with the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the other hand, if the pair fails once again, there can be a retest of 1.2140.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Likely Heading Towards 0.7480

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Likely Heading Towards 0.7480

  • – The Aussie dollar was under heavy pressure with a break below 0.7540 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7580 on the 4-hours chart of AUD/USD.
  • – The Chinese Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China posted a decline of 0.2% in Feb 2017, compared with the +0.6% forecast.

 

Chinese Consumer Price Index

Today in China, the Consumer Price Index for Feb 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was expecting the Chinese Consumer Price Index to increase by 0.6% in Feb 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

The outcome was well below the forecast, as the Chinese Consumer Price Index registered a decline of 0.2% in Feb 2017, which was also lower than the last +1%. In terms of the yearly change, the CPI increased 0.8% in Feb 2017, compared with the same month a year ago. It was also disappointing, as the market was aligned for a 1.7% rise.

 

The result was discouraging, and weighed on the Aussie dollar, and AUD/USD extended its decline below the 0.7530 support area.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

It is a clear downtrend in the Aussie dollar since there was a break below the 0.7600 handle against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair declined heavily and broke the 0.7580, 0.7550 and 0.7530 support levels, igniting a solid downside move.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

 

The pair has already broken the last swing low at 0.7542. It also cleared the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 0.7542 low to 0.7632 high. So, there are chances of more declines in the near term.

 

If there is a break below the 0.7500 handle, the pair could easily test the 1.618 extension of the last wave from the 0.7542 low to 0.7632 high. In that case, the 0.7480 support may come into play and try to prevent downsides. On the upside, the last swing low at 0.7540 is now a resistance zone. If there is a recovery in AUD/USD, then the 0.7540 and 0.7560 levels might act as a hurdle for buyers in the short term.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Under Significant Pressure

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Under Significant Pressure

  • – New Zealand Dollar was crushed recently against the US Dollar for a move below 0.7000.
  • – The NZD/USD pair is following a monster descending channel pattern with resistance at 0.6970 on the hourly chart.
  • – The New Zealand Manufacturing sales, released by Statistics New Zealand posted a decline of 1.8% in Q4 2016, compared with the last +2.1%.

 

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales

Today in New Zealand, the Manufacturing sales report for Q4 2016 was released by Statistics New Zealand. The market was expecting the volume of the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities to increase by around 1% in Q4 2016.

 

The outcome was well below the market expectation, as the New Zealand Manufacturing sales registered a decline of 1.8% in Q4 2016. The report added that the “volume of meat and dairy product manufacturing fell in the December 2016 quarter, although sales values rose due to higher prices”. In China today, the trade balance figures for Feb 2017 were released. They also failed to impress with a trade deficit of -60.4B CNY, compared with the last surplus of 354.5B CNY.

 

Overall, the New Zealand dollar is likely to remain under bearish pressure, and could trade towards 0.6900 against the US Dollar in the near term.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

There was a solid downside move in New Zealand dollar, as it tumbled below 0.7040 and 0.7000 support levels vs the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair is under heavy pressure, and following a monster descending channel pattern with resistance at 0.6970 on the hourly chart.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand US Dollar

 

The pair is currently attempting a recovery from the 0.6935 low, but likely to face sellers near the 0.6970 or 0.6960 level. The same level also coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7045 high to 0.6934 low.

 

No doubt, the pair remains at a risk of more downside, and it could trade close to the 0.6900 level. The current descending channel clearly highlights the bearish pressure, and a break below 0.7000 could spark further downsides. If you are a seller, look to sell rallies, but protect it when there is a change in the trend or RSI moves back above the 50 level.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely To Break Down Vs Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Likely To Break Down Vs Dollar

  • – There Euro was seen struggling to clear a major resistance near 1.0630 against the US Dollar.
  • – The EUR/USD pair is currently attempting a break below a crucial bullish trend line at 1.0585 on the hourly chart.
  • – The German Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank posted a decline of 7.4% in Jan 2017 (MoM), compared with the -2.7% forecast.

 

German Factory Orders

Today in the Euro Zone, the German Factory orders for Jan 2017 was released by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The market was expecting the shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders to decline by around 2.7% in Jan 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

The outcome was well below the forecast, as the German Factory orders posted a decline of 7.4% in Jan 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a decrease of 0.8% in Jan 2017, which was a lot lower compared with the last increase of 8% (revised). In Italy today, the Producer Price Index for Jan 2017 (MoM) was released by the National Institute of Statistics. The result was around the forecast, as the Producer Price Index posted a rise of 1% in Jan 2017, compared with the previous month.

 

Overall, the Euro has hardly any reason to remain supported, which means the EUR/USD pair could trade towards 1.0550 in the short term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

There was a rise in the Euro towards 1.0630-1.0640 against the US Dollar where it found resistance. The stated resistance near 1.0630 acted as a barrier on many occasions. It prevented gains once again in EUR/USD and pushed the pair back below 1.0600.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair also moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0494 low to 1.0639 high. At the moment, it is attempting a break below a crucial bullish trend line at 1.0585 on the hourly chart.

 

If there is a close below the trend line support or 1.0580, there is a chance of a move towards 1.0550. The pair may even test the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0494 low to 1.0639 high or the 100 hourly simple moving average around 1.0550. Overall, the pair remains at a risk of a breakdown in the near term.

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USD/JPY Forecast – Dollar To Yen Bullish Trend Exhausted

USD/JPY Forecast – Dollar To Yen Bullish Trend Exhausted

  • – The US Dollar after trading as high as 114.58 against the Japanese yen found resistance.
  • – The USD/JPY trend looks exhausted, as it broke a support trend line at 114.40 on the hourly chart.
  • – The Japanese Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2017 released by Markit Economics posted a decline from 51.9 to 51.3.

 

Japanese Services PMI

Earlier today in Japan, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Feb 2017 was released by Markit Economics. The market was expecting no major decline in the PMI from 51.9 in Feb 2017.

 

The outcome was neutral, as there was a minor decline from the last PMI reading to 51.3 in Feb 2017. Commenting on the Services PMI, an economist at HIS Markit, Samuel Agass, stated “Japan’s service sector continued to grow during February, albeit at the weakest pace for four months. However, this did not stop firms from adding to their headcounts at the quickest extent since May 2013”. The Japanese CPI reading was also published today, which posted a good increase of 0.4% in Jan 2017 (YoY), more than the last +0.3%.

 

The Japanese yen seems to be gaining ground after the release, and already moved higher by around 20 pips against the US Dollar.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar was seen gaining pace this week, as it traded above 114.50 against the Japanese yen and traded as high as 114.58. The USD/JPY pair later started correcting lower, and moved below a support trend line at 114.40 on the hourly chart.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

 

It looks like the pair broke an ascending channel, and might be heading towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.68 low to 114.58 high. However, there is a major support on the downside at 113.60.

 

The 113.60 support was a resistance earlier, and might act as a support going forward. It also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 111.68 low to 114.58 high. Overall, it looks like the USD/JPY pair is under a correction mode, and might trade towards 113.60 where the USD bulls could appear again to protect losses.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

  • – The Aussie dollar recently struggled and moved towards 0.7635 against the US Dollar.
  • – The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7685 support and a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
  • – Australia’s trade balance for Jan 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a trade surplus of 1,302M, less than the forecast of 3,800M.

 

Australian Trade Balance

Earlier today in Australia, the trade balance for Jan 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting the difference in the value of imports and exports to post a surplus of 3,800M in Jan 2017.

 

However, the result was on the lower side, as the trade surplus was 1,302M. The last trade surplus was revised to 3,334M. Imports rose 4% and exports declined by 3% in Jan 2017. The report added that the seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $945m (3%) to $31,796m. Non-monetary gold fell $671m (39%) and non-rural goods fell $403m (2%). Rural goods rose $57m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (17%). Services credits rose $72m (1%)”.

 

The result failed to help the Aussie dollar, and increased bearish pressure on AUDUSD, resulting in a dip towards 0.7650. More losses are likely if the pressure remains intact around 0.7650 and 0.7665.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar failed near 0.7740 recently against the US Dollar and made a downside move. It broke the 0.7685 support area and also moved below the 100 simple moving average (H4).

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

 

Also, there was a break below a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 0.7688, igniting a downside move. He AUD/USD pair traded as low as 0.7636 where it found buyers. Now, there is a connecting bearish trend line formed with resistance at 0.7675.

 

The 0.7675 resistance also coincides with the 100 simple moving average and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7740 high to 0.7636 low. It looks like any corrections from the current levels towards 0.7680 may find sellers. On the downside, a break below 0.7636 could open the doors for a test of 0.7610 and 0.7600 in the short term.

 

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