GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Regain Traction Vs Japanese Yen

GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound To Regain Traction Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The British Pound is following a bullish pattern and remains supported at 145.40 against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a contracting triangle pattern forming with resistance at 146.40-50 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.
  • – Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (July 28) figure was released by Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was below the last reading of ¥377.0B (revised) and posted ¥292.4B.

 

Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks

Today in Japan, the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (July 28) figure was released by Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a minor rise from the last reading of ¥341.0B.

 

However, the actual result was neutral, as the Foreign investment in Japan stocks (July 28) came in at ¥292.4B, down from the last reading. The last reading was revised up from ¥341.0B to ¥377.0B. When we look at the foreign bond investment, there was an increase from the last revised reading of ¥946.7B to ¥1,178.6B.

 

Overall, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to move higher and might test the 146.20 and 146.40 levels in the near term.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

The British Pound remains in a nice uptrend and recently traded towards 146.50 against the Japanese Yen where it faced sellers. There was a downside correction initiated in GBP/JPY from the 146.41 high and the pair moved towards 145.50.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis British Pound Japanese Yen

 

The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 144.46 low to 146.41 high. However, the downside move was protected by a major support area near 145.50-40. It also represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 144.46 low to 146.41 high.

 

Moreover, there is a contracting triangle pattern forming with resistance at 146.40-50 on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY. There are chances that the pair may resume the trend and could soon break the 146.00 initial resistance.

 

On the upside, the most important resistance is near 146.40. A successful close above 146.50 would lift the market sentiment in the near term. On the downside, the most important support and buy zone remains near 145.60-50.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Looks Set To Decline Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Looks Set To Decline Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar recently struggled and broke the 0.7930 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 0.7920 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Today in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q2 2017 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 2.2%, as there was a rise of 1.9% in the CPI (YoY).

 

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Today in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q2 2017 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for the CPI to rise by 2.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of 2.2%, as there was a rise of 1.9% in the CPI, even down from the last reading of 2.1%. In terms of the quarterly change, there was an increase of 0.2%, which was below the forecast of 0.4%. The report stated that:

The most significant price rises this quarter are medical and hospital services (+4.1%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.9%), tobacco (+1.0%) and beer (+1.0%).

 

Overall, the AUD/USD pair may continue to move down and could even break the 0.7890 support for a move towards 0.7860.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar recently traded towards 0.7980-90 against the US Dollar where it faced sellers. There were more than two attempts by the AUD/USD pair to test the 0.8000 level, but the pair failed to gain bullish momentum and declined.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair moved lower and cleared a major bullish trend line with support at 0.7920 on the hourly chart. There was even a break below the 0.7910 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average, and the pair traded as low as 0.7891 today.

 

It is currently correcting higher, but facing sellers near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7969 high to 0.7891 low. The broken support trend line near 0.7920 is also acting as a hurdle for more gains.

 

So, there is a chance of sellers gaining momentum in the short term and taking the pair back towards 0.7890 or even below 0.7880.

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EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Correcting Lower Towards 0.8920 Vs British Pound

EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro Correcting Lower Towards 0.8920 Vs British Pound

  • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8994 against the British Pound started a downside move.
  • – There are two important bullish trend lines with support near 0.8910 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/GBP.
  • – Today in the Euro Zone, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 (Preliminary) was released by the Markit Economics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast, as there was a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 56.8.

 

Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

Today in the Euro Zone, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2017 (Preliminary) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was positioned for a decline from the last reading of 57.4 to 57.2.

 

The actual result was below the forecast, as there was a decline in the PMI from the last reading of 57.4 to 56.8. Moreover, the headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI was down for the second time and now sits at 55.8. The report added that:

Despite coming off recent highs, the index remained at an elevated level by historical standards and signaled one of the strongest expansions seen over the past six years.

 

Overall, the EUR/GBP pair may correct a few pips towards 0.8820-10, but likely to gain bids on the downside.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro was in a solid uptrend from the 0.8700 swing low against the British Pound and traded above the 0.8800 handle. The uptrend in the EUR/GBP pair was such that the pair even traded close to the 0.9000 handle.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro British Pound

 

A high was formed near 0.8994 where the pair faced strong offers and a correction wave was initiated. The pair is now below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8833 low to 0.8994 high.

 

On the downside, there are two important bullish trend lines with support near 0.8910 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/GBP along with the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, the 0.8915 level is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8833 low to 0.8994 high.

 

So, if the pair continues to move down, there can be strong buy zones near 0.8825, 0.8820 and 0.8810 in the short term.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Consolidating Gains Above 1.1620 Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Consolidating Gains Above 1.1620 Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro surged higher recently and cleared the 1.1600 handle against the US Dollar.
  • – A descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.1515 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD was cleared for an upside move.
  • – Today in the Euro Zone, the current account figure of Greece for May 2017 was released by the Bank of Greece.
  • – The outcome was around the forecast, as there was a trade deficit of €-0.582B (YoY), a bit more than the last €-0.462B.

 

Greece Current Account

Recently in the Euro Zone, the current account figure of Greece for May 2017 was released by the Bank of Greece. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of €-0.50B compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was around the forecast, as there was a trade deficit of €-0.582B (YoY), a bit more than the last €-0.462B. One important point to note was an increase of more than 15% in non-oil exports of goods and there was a rise of 17.5% in oil exports. The report added that:

A €145 million rise in the surplus of the services balance is for the most part due to a 40.4% rise in net – mainly sea – transport receipts, as well as to higher net travel and other services receipts. In May 2017, non-residents’ arrivals and the corresponding receipts showed an increase of 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.

 

Overall, the EUR/USD pair may correct a few pips from the current levels, but more likely to find support near 1.1620-1.1600.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro this week surged higher and broke the 1.1550 and 1.1600 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded as high as 1.1676 recently and currently consolidating in a range above the 1.1640 level.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

To initiate the upside move, there was a break above a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.1515 on the hourly chart and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now forming an ascending channel or a flag pattern with support at 1.1630 and resistance near 1.1670.

 

An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1478 low to 1.1676 high, which is also near the channel support.

 

So, if the pair dips from the current levels, it may find support near 1.1630 for another ride above the 1.1670 level in the near term.

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USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The US Dollar recently traded lower to test the 111.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was expecting a trade surplus of ¥439.8B compared with the last deficit of ¥203.4B.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B, and the last reading was revised up from ¥203.4B to ¥204.2B. Imports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 15.5%, more than the forecast of 14.6%. Exports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 9.7%, more than the forecast of 9.5%.

 

Overall, the USD/JPY pair has a chance to recover in the short term, but it faces resistances such as 112.30 and 112.80 on the upside.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar declined during the past few days and traded below the 112.80 and 112.30 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 112.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards 111.50.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair after trading as low as 111.54 started a recovery and broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart. It is currently attempting a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low.

 

The pair faces a monster hurdle on the upside near 112.30. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned at 112.30.

 

Above 112.30, the next hurdle is at 112.80, which was a support earlier and now a resistance. So, if the pair has to continue higher, it has to break 112.30 and 112.80 for sustained gains.

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USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Recovery Won’t Be Easy Vs Swiss Franc

  • – The US Dollar stated a downtrend after trading close to 0.9699 against the Swiss Franc.
  • – There is a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
  • – Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B.

 

US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Today in the US, the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May 2017 was released by the US Department of Treasury. The market was expecting the Net Long-Term TIC Flows to be around $20.3B, compared with the last $1.8B.

 

The actual result was above the forecast, as the net flows were $91.9B, more than the expectation of $20.3B. The last reading was also revised up from $1.8B to $9.7B.  On the other hand, the total Net TIC Flows were down from the last revised reading of $74.4B to $57.3B. The report added that:

The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $57.3 billion.  Of this, net foreign private inflows were $87.2 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $29.9 billion.

 

Overall, the USD/CHF may continue to move higher, but it is facing a major resistance zone near 0.9560-70.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar struggled to break above the 0.9690-0.9700 levels against the Swiss Franc and moved down. During the downside move, the USD/CHF pair broke the 100 hourly simple moving average and a bullish trend line at 0.9650 on the hourly chart.

 

USD/CHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

 

The pair traded as low as 0.9523 and currently correcting higher. It has managed to move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low.

 

However, there are many hurdles on the upside such as 0.9565 and 0.9580. There is also a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9565 on the hourly chart. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9632 high to 0.9523 low is also near the trend line.

 

So, if the pair continues to move higher, it may face resistance near 0.9565 and 0.9570. Selling rallies can be considered as long as the pair is below the trend line resistance at 0.9570.

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AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar in Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar in Monstrous Uptrend Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar gained massively recently and traded above 0.7800 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.7790 forming on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Today in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of 6.9% (YoY), more than the forecast of 6.8%.

 

Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Today in China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for the GDP to grow by 6.8% in Q2 2017 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

 

However, the actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase of 6.9%, which was similar to the last reading. In terms of the quarterly change, there was an increase of 1.7%, which was in line with forecast, but more than the last +1.3%. Looking at the urban investment figure, there was a rise of 8.6% in June 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.

 

Overall, the AUD/USD pair may correct a few pips lower, but remains supported near 0.7790-80 in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar after consolidating near 0.7550-70 against the US Dollar for some time formed a base and moved higher. The upside move was solid, as the AUD/USD pair managed to break a few important hurdles like 0.7625 and 0.7680.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair traded sharply higher by more than 150 pips and moved past 0.7800. A new monthly high was formed at 0.7833 where the pair faced offers. It is currently correcting lower and trading just above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7713 low to 0.7833 high.

 

On the downside, there is a crucial bullish trend line with support at 0.7790 forming on the hourly chart. The same trend line is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7713 low to 0.7833 high.

 

So, buying dips near the trend line support at 0.7800-7790 might be considered in the short term as long as there is no close below it.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Descending Channel Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Descending Channel Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro after trading close to the 1.1500 level against the US Dollar found sellers and moved down.
  • – The EUR/USD pair is currently following a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.1425 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Price Index for June 2017 was released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.1% in the CPI (MoM).

 

Italy’s Consumer Price Index

Recently in the Euro Zone, the Italian Consumer Price Index for June 2017 was released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of 0.1% in the CPI compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.1% in the CPI. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.2%, which was again in line with the market forecast. The report added that:

In June, the lower growth of the annual rate of change of All items index was mainly due to the prices of Unprocessed food (+1.4%, from +3.8% in May) and Non-regulated energy products (+2.9%, from +6.8% in the previous month), partly offset by the increase of the prices of Services related to transport (+4.1% from +3.2% in May).

 

Overall, the EUR/USD pair may continue to move down as long as it is below the 1.1425-40 resistance zone.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro this week broke the 1.1425 resistance to challenge the 1.1500 level against the US Dollar. However, it traded as high as 1.1489, and later started correcting lower. The EUR/USD broke the 1.1460 and 1.1440 support levels during the downside move.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair even traded below the 1.1425 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at 1.1371 from where it recovered. However, there is a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.1425 forming on the hourly chart.

 

It is protecting gains on the upside along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1455 high to 1.1371 low. The 100 hourly simple moving average is also at 1.1420.

 

Overall, it would be very tough for buyers to break 1.1425-40 in the short term and there are chances of more declines towards 1.1380.

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NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Gaining Momentum Vs US Dollar

NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Gaining Momentum Vs US Dollar

  • – The New Zealand Dollar after a sharp decline towards 0.7200 against the US Dollar found support.
  • – The NZDUSD pair gained pace and managed to break a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7265 on the hourly chart.
  • – Today in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for June 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 1%, as there was a rise of 0.2% in the index.

 

New Zealand Food Price Index

Today in in New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) for June 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was aligned for an increase of around 1% compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was on the lower side, as the index rose 0.2% in June 2017. The main contributors to the rise were avocados and soft drinks. As per the report, the average price for a 200g avocado was up from $3.38 in May 2017 to $4.52 in June 2017. Commenting on the data release, the consumer prices manager, Matthew Haigh, stated:

Avocado prices tend to peak in the winter before falling in spring as new fruit become available. Prices are back near the record level in June last year.

 

Overall, the NZD/USD may correct further a few pips, but it is well supported above the 0.7270 area in the short term.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar was in deep trouble earlier this week, as it traded below the 0.7240-30 support area against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair traded as low as 0.7201 where buyers appeared and pushed the pair higher.

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

 

The pair recovered very well during the past 3-4 sessions, and traded above the 0.7230 resistance area. There was also a break above the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7307 high to 0.7201 low.

 

Recently, the pair also broke a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7265 on the hourly chart, and traded as high as 0.7297 where sellers appeared. A correction started, but the pair found support near a bullish trend line at 0.7245.

 

The pair is back moving higher, and it may soon break the 0.7290-0.7300 resistance zone for further gains. The next stop could be 0.7315.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

GBP/USD Forecast – Cable Following a Bearish Path Below 1.2920

  • – The British Pound is moving lower and positioned below the 1.2940-20 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • – Today in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published.
  • – The outcome was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales (YoY).

 

UK’s Consumer Credit

Recently in the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales for June 2017 was published. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.5% in the sales in June 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

However, the actual result was positive, as there was an increase of 1.2% in the Retail Sales. It was a lot more compared with the last decline of 0.4%. When we consider the total basis, there was an increase of 0.2% in the sales, which was same as in June 2016. The report added that:

Over the three months to June, food sales increased 3.6 per cent on a like-for-like basis and 4.7 per cent on a total basis. This is the strongest 3-month average since February 2012, and pulls the 12-month total average growth to 2.5 per cent, the highest since December 2013.

 

Overall, the result was positive, which may push the GBP/USD pair higher, but it is likely to remain capped by 1.2920-40.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a downside move from well above 1.3000 and traded below 1.2980 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined slowly and moved below the 1.2950, 1.2940 and 1.2920 support level.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair traded as low as 1.2854 recently and currently consolidating. Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is following a descending channel pattern with resistance at 1.2900. At the moment, buyers are attempting a close above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

 

Above the channel resistance, the 100 hourly simple moving average is a major hurdle at 1.2918. It also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2983 high to 1.2854 low.

 

There is also a bearish trend line on the upside at 1.2940, waiting to act as a barrier if the pair jumps higher in the near term. Overall, there can be corrections in GBP/USD, but upsides could be limited by 1.2920-40.

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