EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Dollar Remains Elevated Above 1.0650

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Dollar Remains Elevated Above 1.0650

  • – The Euro after trading towards 1.0600 against the US Dollar found support and moved higher.
  • – There is a crucial contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD, which acted as a support near 1.0600, and has resistance near 1.0740.
  • – Earlier today, the German Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a rise of 0.4% in Dec 2016, same as the forecast of +0.4%.

 

German Producer Price Index and Chinese GDP

Today, the German Producer Price Index report was published by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The expectation was a 0.4% rise in the index in Dec 2016, compared with the previous month.

 

The result was as forecasted, and even the yearly change was in line with the market expectation of a 1% rise in Dec 2016, compared with Dec 2015. Earlier today, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report was published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

 

The market was aligned for an increase of 6.7% in the GDP in Q4 2016, but it posted 6.8%. So, the market sentiment improved post the result, which means there is a chance of the EUR/USD pair gaining bids in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro is an uptrend against the US dollar, and the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD clearly highlights the same, as the pair is above the 1.0600 support area. There was a dip recently from the 1.0715 high, but the stated support acted as a barrier and prevented a downside move near 1.0600.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently moving higher, and already broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.0718 high to 1.0588 low. So, there is a chance of the pair trading close to the full high of 1.0718 or 1.0700.

 

There is a crucial contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart with support near 1.0600 and resistance near 1.0740. It would be interesting to see whether the pair keeps rising and tests the highlighted triangle resistance near 1.0740.

 

The same triangle resistance also coincides with the 1.236 extension of the last decline from the 1.0718 high to 1.0588 low. So, it may act as a critical resistance area.

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EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Pound Turned Bearish Below 0.8720

EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Pound Turned Bearish Below 0.8720

  • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8851 against the British Pound faced strong offers.
  • – The EUR/GBP pair moved down, broke the 0.8750 support and a bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart.
  • – Earlier today, the UK Claimant Count Change reported by the National Statistics posted a change of -10.1 in Dec 2016, better than the forecast of +5K.

 

UK Employment Report

Today, the UK saw the release of the employment figures by the National Statistics. The expectation was a chance of 5K in the Claimant Count Change in Dec 2016, and the unemployment rate was forecasted to remain at 4.8%.

 

However, the result was better than the forecast, as the change was -10.1K in Dec 2016, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.8%. The report added that “There were 31.80 million people in work, little changed compared with June to August 2016 but 294,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 23.25 million people working full-time, 209,000 more than for a year earlier“.

 

Overall, the result was better than the market forecast, which may help the British Pound in gaining bids. It means the EUR/GBP pair recent break may put further pressure on buyers as long as the pair is below 0.8750.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro gained a lot earlier this week against the British Pound, and traded past the 0.8800 level. However, it faced strong selling interest near 0.8850, which resulted in a sharp downside move recently.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

 

The EUR/GBP pair moved down, and broke a few key support levels. First, there was a close below 0.8800, then there was a break below the 0.8750 support along with a bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart.

 

There was also a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8451 low to 0.8851 high. However, the pair just managed to hold the downside near 0.8600, and the 100 simple moving average (H4).

 

It is currently moving back higher, but most likely to face sellers near the broken support levels like 0.8700 and 0.8750. The highlighted trend line was clearly a major support, and a break below it can be seen as a bearish drift.

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USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

USD/JPY Analysis – Dollar To Yen Face Bears and More Downsides

  • – The US Dollar declined recently against the Japanese yen, and even traded below the 115.00 support area.
  • – There is a crucial bearish trend line on the upside at 115.40-155.60 on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.
  • – Earlier today, the Japanese New Machinery orders, released by the Cabinet Office posted an increase of 10.4% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

 

Japanese New Machinery Orders

There were no major economic releases in the US lately, and none lined up today due to Martin L. King’s Birthday bank holiday. In Japan today, the New Machinery orders figure was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was expecting an increase of 8.1% in Nov 2016, compared with Nov 2015.

 

However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was an increase of 10.4% in the total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decrease of 5.1%, which missed the mark when compared with the forecast of -1.7%.

 

Overall, the result was mixed, but there was not major impact on the Japanese yen. It continued to gain traction vs the US Dollar, and was seen trading towards 114.00.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar struggled a lot lately against the Japanese yen, as it fell below the 116.00 and 115.00 support area. The most important thing was a break below the 115.30 support area, which later acted as a resistance and prevented an upside move.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

 

The pair already tested the 1.618 extension of the last wave from the 115.06 low to 117.54 high, but there is no sign of a major recovery. There are many hurdles on the way up like near 115.40-155.60 in the form of a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.

 

Furthermore, an initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low. However, the most important hurdle is near 115.30, coinciding with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 116.68 high to 113.61 low.

 

In short, the pair looks like heading lower, and may head towards 113.60 once again.

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EUR/AUD Analysis – Euro To Aussie Dollar Heading Towards Support

EUR/AUD Analysis – Euro To Aussie Dollar Heading Towards Support

  • – The Euro declined heavily against the Aussie dollar recently, and moved below the 1.4300 support area.
  • – There are two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart of EUR/AUD, acting as a resistance on the upside near 1.4260-1.4300.
  • – Earlier today, the German wholesale price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted an increase of 1.2% in Dec 2016, compared with Nov 2016.

 

German Wholesale Price Index

There was no major economic release in the Euro Area today. The only one to note was the German wholesale price Index by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was not expecting a rise of more than 0.5% in Dec 2016, compared with Nov 2016.

 

However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was a rise of 1.2% in the German wholesale price Index. Looking at the yearly change, there was a 2.6% rise in the index in Dec 2016, compared with the same month a year ago. The report also added that the “index of selling prices in wholesale trade was down 1.0% on an annual average in 2016 from the preceding year”.

 

Overall, the outcome was above the expectation, and it gives a chance to the Euro buyers to take the EUR/AUD higher for a recover towards 1.4220.

 

EUR/AUD Technical Analysis

The Euro faced a lot of selling pressure against the Aussie dollar during the past few days, as it moved below a couple of important support levels like 1.4400 and 1.4300. The EUR/AUD pair currently looks like in a downtrend with two bearish trend line as resistance on the 4-hours chart near 1.4260-1.4300.

 

EUR/AUD Analysis – Euro To Aussie Dollar

 

The pair already broke the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.4090 low to 1.4720 high. So, there is a chance of a full test of the last swing low near 1.4100.

 

The highlighted support area is very important. It acted as a barrier earlier, and may produce a bounce once again from 1.4100. The H4 RSI has also reached the oversold readings, which means the EUR/AUD pair may sooner or later attempt to recover.

 

On the upside, an initial resistance is near 1.4200, followed by the highlighted bearish trend lines.

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GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

GBP/JPY Analysis – Pound To Yen May Continue To Struggle

  • – The British Pound declined recently towards 140.00 against the Japanese yen.
  • – The GBP/JPY pair after finding support started a recovery, but faced sellers near 141.20.
  • – In the UK, the Industrial Production released by the National Statistics posted a rise of 2% in Nov 2016, more than the forecast of 0.6%.

 

UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production

In the UK today, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures were released by the National Statistics. The market was aligned for an increase of 0.6% in the Industrial Production in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago.

 

However, the result was better than the forecast, as there was a rise of 2% in the UK Industrial Production. Similarly, the UK Manufacturing Production posted a rise of 1.2% in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago, better than the forecast of 0.4%. The report mentioned that the “increase in production was due to an increase in mining and quarrying output following the end of a maintenance period in the oil and gas industry and an increase in manufacturing”.

 

 

Overall, the result was positive, but seems like the GBP buyers are not impressed, and as a result, the GBP/JPY pair may continue to decline back towards 140.00.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

The British Pound was under a lot of bearish pressure against the Japanese yen recently, as it fell close to the 140.00 handle. The GBP/JPY pair somehow managed to find support near the stated level, and started correcting higher.

 

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis Pound Yen

 

The pair moved higher, and broke the 141.00 resistance area. However, it failed to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 144.04 high to 140.17 low. There was no H4 close above the stated fib level.

 

It looks like the pair is struggling during the current recovery wave and may decline back towards 140.00. Even if it manages to move further higher, there are a couple of bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart, waiting to act as a resistance near 142.00. Overall, the trend is bearish in GBP/JPY, and any major rallies may be seen as selling opportunities.

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Gold Price – Chances of More Upsides Emerge Vs US Dollar

Gold Price – Chances of More Upsides Emerge Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price was recently seen trading higher vs the US Dollar for a move past $1165.
  • – There was a break above a bearish trend line on the daily chart of Gold price at $1135.
  • – In the US, the recent nonfarm payrolls release by the US Department of Labor was disappointing, as it came in at 156K vs the 178K forecast.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls

In the US this past Friday, there was a major release, as the nonfarm payrolls report was published by the US Department of Labor. The forecast was 178K in Dec 2016, compared with the last 178K.

 

However, the result was on the lower side, as the US NFP came in at 156K. It was even counted less, as the last reading was revised up from 178K to 204K. Overall, there was a difference of around 50K in Dec 2016. The report added that the “number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million in December and accounted for 24.2 percent of the unemployed. In 2016, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 263,000“.

 

 

In short, the result failed to push the price of Gold down, which means there are chances of upsides in the near term towards $1200.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a recovery from the $1122 low against the US Dollar, and moved above $1150. The price during the recent upside move broke a bearish trend line on the daily chart at $1135, which opened the doors for more gains.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1352 high to $1122 low where it is facing resistance. However, there is a shift in the technical indicators towards north, suggesting an upside move above $1180.

 

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1352 high to $1122 low. A bearish trend line is also positioned near the same fib level at $1237. However, there are many intermediate resistances before that like $1200, and it won’t be easy for Gold buyers to break these levels.

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EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

EUR/USD – Can Euro Break This Resistance Vs Dollar?

  • – The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar from the 1.0400 low, and moved towards 1.0600.
  • – The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a major resistance near 1.0600 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart.
  • – In the Euro Zone today, the German Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted an increase of 3.2% in Nov 2016.

 

German Retail Sales

In the Euro Zone today, the Retail Sales figure, which is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland for Nov 2016.

 

The market was expecting no major increase in Nov 2016, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the result was positive, as there was a rise of 3.2%, which was a lot more than the last decline of -0.8% (revised). In terms of the monthly change, there was a decline of 2.5%, which was disappointing. The report added that the “estimation is based on data for the first eleven months of 2016. In this period retail turnover was in real terms 1.9% and in nominal terms 2.2% larger than that in the corresponding period of the previous year”.

 

Overall, the result was not impressive enough to lift the Euro further against the US Dollar, as it continued to face sellers near 1.0620.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro traded positively recently against the US Dollar after forming a bottom near 1.0339. The EUR/USD pair moved higher, and broke the 100 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart for a move above 1.0500.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro Dollar

 

The pair is currently facing a major hurdle near 1.0600-20 formed with two bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart. The trend lines are important, as a break above them may open the doors for an upside move towards 1.0700.

 

I think there is a chance that the pair may correct towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0339 low to 1.0614 high where it may find support. Overall, the trend is positive for the Euro and any major dips from the current levels may find support near 1.0550 and 1.0520.

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GBP/USD – Double Bottom In Making For British Pound

GBP/USD – Double Bottom In Making For British Pound

  • – The British Pound recently traded near 1.2200 twice against the US Dollar, but failed to break it.
  • – It looks like a double bottom pattern is forming near 1.2200, looking at the 4-hours chart of GBP/USD.
  • – In the UK, the PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics posted an increase from 52.8 to 54.2 in Dec 2016.

 

UK Construction PMI

In the UK today, the PMI Construction that shows business conditions in the UK construction sector was released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics.

 

The market was expecting no change from the last reading of 52.8 in Dec 2016. The result was better than the forecast, as there was an increase from 52.8 to 54.2 in Dec 2016. Commenting on the report, the Senior Economist at IHS Markit and author of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Tim Moore, stated “December’s survey data confirmed a solid rebound in UK construction output during the final quarter of 2016. All three main areas of construction activity have started to recover from last summer’s soft patch, but in each case growth remains much weaker than the cyclical peaks seen in 2014”.

 

 

Overall, the market trend and sentiment are positive for the British Pound, which may lift it towards 1.2300 against the US Dollar.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a couple of downside moves, and tested the 1.2200 support area. The stated level acted as a barrier and prevented downside moves on more than two occasions. So, there is a chance that the GBP/USD is forming a double bottom pattern near the same area.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis Pound Dollar

 

The pair is already trading higher, and broke a bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 1.2250. Moreover, the pair is also above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2387 high to 1.2200 low.

 

So, there is a chance that the pair may head towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2387 high to 1.2200 low at 1.2293. If the British Pound buyers remain in charge and the double bottom pattern plays well, there can be more upsides with a possible test of 1.2300-10.

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EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

EUR/GBP – Is This Bearish Break For Euro To Pound?

  • – The Euro after trading as high as 0.8667 against the British Pound found sellers, and moved down.
  • – The EUR/GBP moved down sharply, and broke a major support trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart.
  • – The Euro Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016.

 

Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

The markets are mostly closed today, so there is no major release. In the Euro Zone, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by the Markit Economics.

 

The market was expecting no change from the last reading of 54.9 in Dec 2016. The result was in line with the forecast, as there was no increase from the last reading of 54.9. Commenting on the report, the Chief Business Economist at HIS, Chris Williamson, stated “Eurozone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production. Policymakers will be doubly-pleased to see the manufacturing sector’s improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures”.

 

 

There was no negative market sentiment for the Euro, so there is a chance that the shared currency may bounce back from the 0.8500 support against the British Pound.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro made a nice attempt to break the 0.8680 barrier against the British Pound, but failed near 0.8660. The EUR/GBP pair started moving down, and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

 

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis Euro Pound

 

The pair recently traded below a major bullish trend line at 0.8520 on the 4-hours chart. However, the pair is currently finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8331 low to 0.8667 high.

 

So, there is a chance that the recent break is false, and the pair may bounce back from the 0.8500 support. The EUR/GBP pair is also above the 100 simple moving average (H4 chart), which is a positive sign. If at all there are more declines, then the pair can test the 0.8460 support area in the short term. The H4 RSI has moved below the 50 level, calling for a bearish break.

 

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USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

USD/JPY – Dollar Facing Crucial Resistance at 116.85-90 Vs Yen

  • – The US Dollar after a decline towards the 116.04 level against the Japanese yen started correcting higher.
  • – The USD/JPY pair is currently moving higher, but facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.
  • – This week in Japan, the National Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Bureau posted an increase of 0.5% in Nov 2016 (YoY).

 

Japanese National Consumer Price Index

This week in Japan, there were a few important economic releases. The most important one was the National Consumer Price Index by the Statistics Bureau. The market was not expecting any major increase above 0.2% in the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services in Nov 2016 (YoY).

 

However, the result was better compared with the forecast, as there was a rise of 0.5%. However, when we have a look at the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, there was no chance in the index. The last reading was +0.5%. So, we can say that the result was mixed, but the Japanese yen gained traction during the past few days.

 

There can be a correction phase initiated in Japanese yen, but the USD/JPY pair is currently facing sellers near 116.85-90. So, it would be interesting to see how the pair will trade in the short term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar made a downside move recently against the Japanese yen to break the 117.00 support area. The USD/JPY pair during the downside also broke a bullish trend line at 117.70 on the hourly chart.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis Dollar Yen

 

The pair traded as low as 116.04 where it found buyers and started correcting higher. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. However, the pair is facing a major resistance near 116.85-90.

 

The stated level was a support earlier, and now acting as a resistance. The same level also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 117.80 high to 116.04 low. There are already two rejections near the same area, and the pair may soon attempt a break above it. If the bulls succeed, there can be a move towards 117.20. Else, there can be a downside move back towards 116.45.

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