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Gold Price Could Decline Below $1325 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Could Decline Below $1325 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price started a downside correction from the $1350 swing high against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1340 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Jan 2018 was released.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the index from 53.9 to 54.7.

 

China’s Caixin Services PMI

Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Jan 2018 was released. The market was slated for a rise in the PMI from the last reading of 53.9 to 54.0 in Jan 2018.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 54.0 as there was a rise in the index from 53.9 to 54.7. This was the third consecutive month of an impressive growth in the Chinese services sector. The report added that:

 

January survey data signalled accelerated rates of activity growth across both the manufacturing and service sectors in China. The steeper pace of expansion was registered by services companies, which saw the most marked increase in activity since May 2012.

 

However, gold was not impressed, and it seems like the price may decline below the $1325-27 support in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There were decent gains above $1350 recently in gold price against the US Dollar. However, the price started a downside wave and corrected in three waves towards $1325. It made an intermediate high at $1350 and traded below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

During the downside move, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1340 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The price traded as low as $1327.36 recently and later it corrected higher. It traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1350 high to $1327 low.

 

However, the price struggled to break the $1335-36 resistance and failed near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1350 high to $1327 low.

 

Overall, it seems like the price may resume its downside move and could correct further lower below the $1327-25 support area in the near term.

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Gold Price To Extend Correction Toward $1300 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price To Extend Correction Toward $1300 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price climbed higher toward $1325 before starting a correction against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major descending channel forming with resistance at $1315 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +1.9% as there was a rise in the index by 1.8% (YoY).

 

China’s Consumer Price Index

Recently in China, the Consumer Price Index for Dec 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The market was positioned for a rise of 1.9% in the CPI in Dec 2017 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of +1.9% as there was a rise in the index by 1.8%, but it was better than the last 1.7%. In terms of the monthly change, there was a rise of 0.3% in Dec 2017, which was lower than the forecast of 0.4%, but more than the last 0%.

 

Overall, gold price might correct a few pips in the short term, but it is likely to extend declines toward $1300 in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Recently, we saw a major upside move in gold price above the $1300 level against the US Dollar. The price gained a lot of momentum, settled above $1300 and traded towards the $1325 level where it faced sellers.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price is now well below the $1315 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1305 low to $1325 high. At the moment, it seems like there is a major descending channel forming with resistance at $1315 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

 

On the downside, the price could accelerate declines and it could even trade towards the 1.236 Fib extension of the last wave from the $1305 low to $1325 high, which is near $1305.

 

On the upside, any recovery is likely to face a strong selling interest near $1315 and $1320.

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Crude Oil Price Eyeing Further Gains Above $58.50 Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price Eyeing Further Gains Above $58.50 Vs US Dollar

  • – Crude oil price is in a decent uptrend above the $57.00 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There is an ascending channel forming with support at $57.75 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in the US, the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles figure (Dec 15, 2017) was released by the Energy Information Administration.
  • – As per the agency, the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles were down -6.495M compared with the forecast of -3.769M.

 

EIA Crude Oil Stockpiles Report

Recently in the US, the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report (Dec 15, 2017) was released by the Energy Information Administration. The market was looking for the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles to decline by around -3.769M compared with the last reading of -5.117M.

 

However, the actual result was better than the forecast, as the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles declined -6.495M, compared with the forecast of -3.769M. This reading was also better than the last -5.117M. Moreover, if we consider without the inclusion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the crude stocks were down to 436 million barrels, which was the lowest reading since Oct 2015.

 

It looks like a decent uptrend is forming for Crude oil price above the $57.50 level and it might continue to move higher in the near term.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

A support base was formed at $56.00 in Crude oil price against the US Dollar. The price started a nice upside move and moved above the $57.00 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

The price made a nice upside move and traded above the last swing high and the 1.236 Fib extension of the last drop from the $57.74 high to $56.84 low. It seems like there is an ascending channel forming with support at $57.75 on the hourly chart.

 

The channel support at $57.75 is also around the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, if the price moves down from the current levels, it will most likely find strong buying interest around $57.70.

 

On the upside, the price may test the 1.618 Fib extension of the last drop from the $57.74 high to $56.84 low at $58.30. Above $58.30, the price could even test the $58.50 level.

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Can Gold Price Break Past $1260 Vs US Dollar?

Can Gold Price Break Past $1260 Vs US Dollar?

  • – Gold price is gaining pace above $1250 against the US Dollar, but it is struggling to break the $1260 level.
  • – There is a crucial contracting triangle forming with support at $1252 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the hosing price index for Nov 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of +5.0% as there was a rise in the index by 5.1%.

 

Caixin Hosing Price Index

Recently in China, the hosing price index for Nov 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a rise in the index by 5% compared with the last increase of 5.4%.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of +5.0% as there was a rise in the index by 5.1%. However, it was slightly less than the last increase of 5.4%. In Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Nov 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. It posted a trade surplus of ¥113.4B, whereas the market was looking for a trade deficit of ¥-54.9B.

 

Overall, the result was positive for the market sentiment, but gold price has to stay above $1250 to gain upside momentum.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

After forming a low above the $1235 level, Gold price started an upside move against the US Dollar. The price was able to move above the $1240 and $1250 resistance levels, and closed above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price traded above the $1260 level, but failed to holds gains and started a downside move. The price declined and traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1236.41 low to $1261.76 high.

 

At the moment, it seems like there is a crucial contracting triangle forming with support at $1252 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The price is holding the $1250 support and remains supported above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1236.41 low to $1261.76 high.

 

As long as the price stays above the $1250-52 levels, there are chances of more gains in the near term above $1260.

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Gold Price in Trouble below $1280 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price in Trouble below $1280 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price is currently under a bearish pressure below the $1280 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1278-1280 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Nov 2017 was released.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 51.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 51.2 to 51.9.

 

Caixin China Services PMI

Recently in China, the Caixin Services PMI for Nov 2017 was released. The market was positioned for a rise in the PMI from the last reading of 51.2 to 51.5.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 51.5 as there was a rise in the PMI from 51.2 to 51.9. Moreover, the Composite Output index increased from the last reading of 51.0 to 51.6. The report stated:

 

Data broken down by sector indicated that business activity growth improved across both the manufacturing and service sectors during November. In the manufacturing sector, the pace of increase picked up from October’s four-month low, but remained moderate overall.

 

Overall, the result was positive, but gold price is struggling to hold the $1270-1272 support area.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a slow and steady decline in Gold price from the $1295-1296 swing high against the US Dollar. The price declined below a couple of important support levels such as $1288, $1282 and $1280 to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

There was even a break below the $1275 level and the price traded as low as $127096. At the moment, the price is consolidating above the $1270 level with an initial resistance around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1289.16 high to $1270.96 low.

 

Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1278-1280 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The trend line resistance is near the 100 hourly SMA and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1289.16 high to $1270.96 low.

 

Therefore, it won’t be easy for buyers to break the $1280 resistance and gain strength above the 100 hourly SMA. On the downside, a break below $1270 could ignite more declines in the near term.

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Gold Price Remains in Uptrend above $1285 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Remains in Uptrend above $1285 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price moved higher recently and traded above the $1285 resistance area against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1286.50 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Nov 18, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 240K, as there was a decline in claims to 239K.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Nov 18, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a decline in the claims from 249K to 240K.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 240K, as there was a decline in claims to 239K. On the other hand, the last reading was revised up from 249K to 252K. Therefore, the overall decrease was more than the market expected which is by 13K.

 

There was a correction initiated in gold price, but it remains supported above the $1285 and $1282 levels in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There was a nice upside move initiated from the $1274.46 low in Gold price against the US Dollar. The price gained a lot of momentum and was able to move above the $1285 resistance to settle above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

During the upside, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1286.50 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD. The price traded as high as $1294.67 and is currently correcting lower. It is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.46 low to $1294.67 high.

 

There is a major support area near $1286 since it is close to the broken trend line and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1274.46 low to $1294.67 high.

 

As long as the price is above $1285, $1282 and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be more gains in the short term toward $1295 or even $1300.

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Crude Oil Price Breaks Key Support at $56.40 Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price Breaks Key Support at $56.40 Vs US Dollar

  • – Crude oil price after a nice upside move faced sellers at $58.00 against the US Dollar and started a downside move.
  • – There was a break below a major descending channel with support at $56.40 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report in the week to Nov. 10 was released.
  • – According to the report, there was a rise in the crude oil inventories by 6.5 million barrels.

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Recently in the US, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report in the week to Nov. 10 was released. The market was positioned for a decrease in the crude oil inventories by around 1 million barrels.

 

However, the actual result was disappointing, as the report pointed a rise in the crude oil inventories by 6.5 million barrels. Most analysts were not expecting a rise in the crude oil inventories by 2 million barrels.

 

Overall, there was an increase in selling pressure on oil price and it moved below the $56.00 support area.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

There was a good upside wave in crude oil price during the past few days above $55.00 against the US Dollar. However, the price failed to move above the $58.00 level and faced a lot of offers, prompting a downside reaction.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

The price started a downside move and traded below the $57.00 support. The most important thing was a break below a major descending channel with support at $56.40 on the hourly chart, which has opened the doors for more losses.

 

The price recently traded below the 100 hourly simple moving average and formed a low at $54.99. It is currently correcting higher with an initial resistance around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $57.32 high to $54.99 low.

 

There are many hurdles on the upside like $56.00 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $57.32 high to $54.99 low at $56.16 where sellers would appear. Therefore, any major corrections toward $56.00 are likely to face offers in the near term.

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Gold Price Remains Supported Above $1275 Vs US Dollar

Gold Price Remains Supported Above $1275 Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price is trading higher, but upsides are capped by the $1282 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $1275 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Oct 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of $39.50B, as there was a trade surplus of $38.20B.

 

China’s Trade Balance

Recently in China, the Trade Balance report for Oct 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of $39.50B compared with the previous $28.47B.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of $39.50B, as there was a trade surplus of $38.20B. The last reading was revised up from $28.47B to $28.61B. Exports of goods and services in Oct 2017 rose 6.9%, which was less than the forecast of 7.2% (YoY). Imports of goods and services in Oct 2017 rose 17.2%, which was more than the forecast of 16% (YoY).

 

The overall result was positive and better than the last time, and might help Gold in moving above the $1282 level in the near term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

There were a couple of rejections in Gold price near the $1282 level against the US Dollar. The price struggled to settle above the $1282 level and started a downside move. It traded towards the $1271 level recently and found strong bids.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price is currently moving higher and trading above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1282.86 high to $1271.81 low. Buyers succeeded in pushing the price above the $1275 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

However, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1282.86 high to $1271.81 low is acting as a resistance and preventing further gains. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $1275 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.

 

As long as the price is above $1275 and the 100 hourly SMA, there can be an upside move back toward $1282 or higher.

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Gold Price To Overtake $1280 Once Again Vs US Dollar

Gold Price To Overtake $1280 Once Again Vs US Dollar

  • – Gold price after a downside move found support near $1264 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1280 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD.
  • – Recently in China, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Oct 2017 was released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 52.0, as there was a decline from 52.4 to 51.6.

 

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI

Recently in China, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Oct 2017 was released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The market was positioned for a minor decline from the last reading of 52.4 to 52.0.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 52.0, as there was a decline from 52.4 to 51.6. Looking at the official non-manufacturing PMI, the market was looking for a decline to 55.0 from 55.4 in Oct 2017. However, the official non-manufacturing PMI declined from 55.4 to 54.3.

 

The overall result was neutral and gold price is likely to remain in the positive zone above $1272 in the short term.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This past week, there was a decline in Gold price from well above $1282 towards $1264 against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1270 support and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade as low as $1263.57.

 

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

The price formed a base near $1264 and later started an upside correction. It traded above the $1272 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1282.45 high to $1263.57 low.

 

The price is now well above $1275 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, buyers need to break a major bearish trend line with resistance at $1280 on the hourly chart of gold versus the USD to gain bullish traction and challenge the $1285 resistance.

 

On the downside, there is a connecting bullish trend line with support at $1275, which can be seen as a buy zone along with the 100 hourly SMA.

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Crude Oil Price To Continue Higher Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price To Continue Higher Vs US Dollar

  • – Crude oil price made a nice upside move recently and traded above $51.50 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near $52.40 on the hourly chart.
  • – Recently in China, the hosing price index for Sep 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +8%, as there was an increase of 6.3% in the index.

 

China’s Hosing Price Index

Recently in China, the hosing price index for Sep 2017 was released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for an increase of 8% compared with the last increase of 8.3%.

 

However, the actual result was below the forecast of +8%, as there was an increase of 6.3% in the index. It had a slight negative impact on the market sentiment. Moreover, the recent Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Sep 2017 posted a rise of 0.2% compared with the previous month, which was in line with the forecast.

 

It seems like crude oil price remains supported on the downside and it might look to break the $52.40-50 resistance for more gains.

 

Oil Price Technical Analysis

There was a minor dip in oil prices this past week towards the $51.00 support against the US Dollar. The price traded as low as $50.90 and later started an upside correction. It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.54 high to $50.90 low.

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

The upside move was strong since the price was able to break the $51.50 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was even a close above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.54 high to $50.90 low, which is a positive sign.

 

On the upside, there is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near $52.40 on the hourly chart. At present, the price is trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.54 high to $50.90 low.

 

Therefore, there is a chance of a minor dip before the price makes an attempt to break the $52.40-50 resistance in the near term. Buying dips can be opted as long as the price is above $52.00 and the 100 hourly SMA.

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