NZD/USD Forecast – New Zealand Dollar To Decline Further Vs US Dollar
- – The New Zealand Dollar started a fresh downside wave from the 0.7345 swing high against the US Dollar.
- – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7315 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.
- – Today in New Zealand, the Trade balance report for Jan 2018 was released by Statistics New Zealand.
- – The outcome was below the market forecast of $-2.711B as there was a trade deficit of $-3.220B (YoY).
New Zealand Trade Balance
Today in New Zealand, the Trade balance report for Jan 2018 was released by Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for a trade deficit of $-2.711B in Jan 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.
The actual result was below the market forecast of $-2.711B as there was a trade deficit of $-3.220B. This was also above the last deficit of $-2.880B. The report added that:
Goods exports rose $373 million (9.5 percent) to $4.3 billion in January 2018. This was a new high for a January month, exceeding the previous high of $4.1 billion in January 2014. This record follows on from the all-time high of $5.5 billion for December 2017.
The NZD/USD pair seems to be struggling to hold the 0.7270 support and it could decline further in the near term.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar remained under a bearish pressure since the last week, and moved below 0.7380 against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair is currently under a lot of pressure and it recently broke the 0.7300 support to settle below the 100 hourly simple moving average.
The pair is now well below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7270 low to 0.7344 high. It has opened the doors for more losses and the pair may soon break the 0.7270 low to decline further.
The next stop could be the 1.236 Fib extension of the last wave from the 0.7270 low to 0.7344 high at 0.7252. On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7315 on the hourly chart.
Therefore, if the pair starts an upside correction, it is likely to face a lot of sellers around the 0.7300 and 0.7315 levels. On the downside, a break below the 0.7270 support could push the pair towards 0.7250 and 0.7220.
Also published on Medium.
