GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Could Decline To 1.2825 Vs US Dollar

GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Could Decline To 1.2825 Vs US Dollar

  • – The British Pound formed a short-term top at 1.2931 and declined against the US Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2865 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the US, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for June 2018 was released by the Standard & Poor’s.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +6.5% as there was a rise in indices by 6.3% (YoY).

 

US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Recently in the US, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for June 2018 was released by the Standard & Poor’s. The market was positioned for a rise of around 6.5% in indices in June 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was below the market forecast of +6.5% as there was a rise in indices by 6.3%. This was also lower than the last reading of +6.5%. The report added that:

 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in June, down from 6.4% in the previous month.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure below the 1.2880 and 1.2900 support levels, and it could slide further towards 1.2840 and 1.2825.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound traded higher nicely above the 1.2880 and 1.2900 levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even traded above the 1.2920 level, but it struggled to move above the 1.2930 level and formed a top near the 1.2931 level.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair started a downside correction and the pair declined below the 1.2900 support. There was also a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2828 low to 1.2931 high.

 

There was also a break below the 1.2880 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair may correct a few pips in the near term, but the broken supports near the 1.2880 and 1.2900 levels are likely to act as resistances.

 

On the downside, the next major support is near the 1.2825 level, which is also the last swing low. An intermediate support is the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2828 low to 1.2931 high at 1.2852. Overall, the pair remains at a risk of a downside move towards the 1.2840 and 1.2825 levels.


Also published on Medium.

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