EUR/USD Forecast – Upsides in Euro Remains Capped Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Upsides in Euro Remains Capped Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro recovered slightly after trading as low as 1.1675 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1730 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Existing Home Sales report for April 2018 was released by the National Association of Realtors.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.2% as there was a decline in sales by 2.5% (MoM).

US Existing Home Sales

Recently in the US, the Existing Home Sales report for April 2018 was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was looking for a minor decline of around 0.2% in sales in April 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of -0.2% as there was a decline in sales by 2.5%. This was also a lot disappointing when compared to the last increase of 1.1%.  The report added:

 

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. With last month’s decline, sales are now 1.4 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for two straight months.

 

The EUR/USD pair recovered a few pips, but it found a strong resistance near the 1.1740 and 1.1750 resistance levels.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro declined heavily this week and settled below the 1.1780 support level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1700 support level and traded to a new weekly low near 1.1675 before buyers appeared.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

The pair started an upside correction and moved back above 1.1700. It also broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1829 high to 1.1675 low. However, the upside move was capped by a major bearish trend line with current resistance at 1.1730 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1829 high to 1.1675 low also acted as a strong barrier for buyers along with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

It seems like the pair may remain in a bearish zone as long as it is below the trend line, 1.1750, and the 100 hourly SMA. On the downside, the 1.1700 and 1.1675 levels are decent supports.


Also published on Medium.

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