USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Could Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen

  • – The US Dollar traded towards 107.00 before starting a downside move against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan.
  • – The outcome was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%.

 

Japan’s Monetary Base

Recently in Japan, the Monetary Base report for March 2018 was released by the Bank of Japan. The market was positioned for a rise of 9.6% in the Monetary Base in March 2018 compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The result was below the market forecast of +9.6% as there was a rise in the base by 9.1%. This was also below the last increase of 9.4%. The overall result was positive, but it missed the expectation.

 

The USD/JPY pair is currently correcting higher, but it will most likely face resistance on the upside near the 106.20-25 area.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar traded higher this past week and moved above the 106.50 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded towards the 107.00 level where it faced selling interest, and later a downside move was initiated.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair declined and traded below the 106.50 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 105.65 and it is currently correcting higher. At the moment, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is acting as a resistance.

 

More importantly, there is a declining and expanding triangle forming with resistance near 106.25 on the hourly chart. Below the triangle resistance, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.44 high to 105.65 low is at 106.14 to act as a hurdle.

 

If the pair corrects further higher, it is likely to face sellers on the upside near the 106.20-25 levels. On the downside, a break below the 105.80 support may call for a retest of 105.65. Below 106.65, the pair may even test the 105.20 level.


Also published on Medium.

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