USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar to Decline Further Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The US Dollar is in a downtrend below the 106.50 pivot level against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for Feb 2018 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade deficit of -¥99.6B in Feb 2018.

 

The result was above the market forecast of -¥99.6B as there was a trade surplus of ¥3.4B. Moreover, the last reading was revised up to ¥-944.1B from ¥-943.4B. Looking at the Exports of goods and services in Feb 2018, there was a rise of 1.8%, which was less than the forecast of 1.9%. Moreover, the Imports of goods and services in Feb 2018 rose 18.5%, which was less than the forecast of 17.1%.

 

The USD/JPY remains in a downtrend and it seems like the pair may break the 105.60 support for more losses in the near term.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar was under a lot of pressure and started a downside move from well above the 106.50 level. The USD/JPY pair declined and moved below the 106.20 and 106.00 support levels to settle well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair recently traded as low as 105.59 before started an upside correction. It moved higher and broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low. However, the upside move was protected by the 106.20 level.

 

More importantly, there is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 106.10 on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. The recent upside move faced sellers near the channel resistance and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 106.40 high to 105.59 low.

 

It seems like the pair may continue to move down, and below 105.60, it could head towards the 105.00 handle in the near term.


Also published on Medium.

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