USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains at Risk Vs Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD Forecast – US Dollar Remains at Risk Vs Canadian Dollar

  • – The US Dollar started a downside move from the 1.2750-60 resistance area against the Canadian Dollar.
  • – There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2510 on the hourly chart of USD/CAD.
  • – Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Statistics Canada.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 0.4% as there was an increase of 0.7% in the CPI (MoM).

 

Canadian CPI

Recently in Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jan 2018 was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was positioned for a rise of 0.4% in the CPI in Jan 2018 compared with the previous month.

 

However, the actual result was above the forecast of 0.4% as there was an increase of 0.7% in the CPI. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.7% in the CPI, more than the forecast of 1.4%. The report added that:

 

Consumers paid 3.2% more for transportation in January, following a 4.9% increase in December. Growth in this index was moderated by the purchase of passenger vehicles index, which increased less on a year-over-year basis in January (+1.4%) than in December (+3.7%). Gasoline prices rose 7.8% in January, after a 12.2% gain in December.

 

The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bearish zone and it may even break the 1.2600 support for more declines in the near term.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar traded higher this past week and moved above the 1.2700 handle against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair traded towards the 1.2750-60 resistance area where sellers defended further gains, and the pair started a downside move.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis US Dollar Canadian Dollar

 

A downside move was initiated and the pair traded below the 1.2700 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.2510 on the hourly chart.

 

The pair traded as low as 1.2609 and corrected higher to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2757 high to 1.2609. It failed to move higher and it is currently declining.

 

It seems like the pair may continue to decline and it could even break the 1.2609 low and 1.2600 for further slides in the near term.


Also published on Medium.

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