AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Approaching Crucial Break Vs US Dollar

  • – The Aussie Dollar is in an uptrend and it is currently above the 0.8040 support against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance at 0.8105 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • – Recently in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q4 2018 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of 0.7% as there was change of 0.6% in the CPI (QoQ).

Australia’s Consumer Price Index

Recently in Australia, the Consumer Price Index for Q4 2018 was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for a change of 0.7% in Q4 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of 0.7% as there was a change of 0.6% in the CPI (QoQ). In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.9%, less than the forecast of 2%, but more than the last increase of 1.8%. The report added that:

 

The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.7%), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.5%), and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.4%).

 

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a range above the 0.8040 support and is preparing for the next move in the near term.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move from the 0.7650 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair surged higher and broke many resistance levels such as 0.7800 and 0.7980 to settle above the 0.8000 level.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

 

A high was formed at 0.8135 from where a downside correction was initiated. The recently traded as low as 0.8045 and is currently trading in a range. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.8104 high to 0.8045 low.

 

At the moment, it seems like there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance at 0.8105 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The pair is currently struggling to break the 0.8080 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

A break above the 0.8080 resistance, followed by a clear break of 0.8105 is needed for more gains. On the downside, a break of the 0.8045 support could ignite a move towards 0.8000.


Also published on Medium.

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