GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold Gains Vs US Dollar?

GBP/USD Forecast – Can British Pound Hold Gains Vs US Dollar?

  • – The British Pound traded higher this past week and moved above 1.3800 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a short term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3840 on the hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.
  • – Recently in the UK, the Retail Sales report for Dec 2017 was released by the National Statistics.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of -0.6% as there was a decline in sales by 1.5% (MoM).

 

UK Retail Sales

Recently in the UK, the Retail Sales report for Dec 2017 was released by the National Statistics. The market was positioned for a decline of around 0.6% in Dec 2017 compared with the previous month.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of -0.6% as there was a decline in sales by 1.5%. In terms of the yearly change, there was an increase of 1.4% in sales, which was less than the forecast of 3.0%. However, it was around the last revised reading of 1.5%.

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently correcting lower, but it has to stay above the 1.3840 level to remain in the bullish zone.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a decent upside move and traded above 1.3800 and 1.3900 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.3944 before it started a downside correction from the mentioned level.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis British Pound US Dollar

 

The pair corrected lower and is currently trading below the 1.3900 level. It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3536 low to 1.3944 high. On the downside, there is a short term connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3840 on the hourly chart.

 

The trend line support at 1.3840 is also around the 100 hourly simple moving average. Therefore, the 1.3830-40 levels hold a lot of importance for the next move. A break below 1.3830 and the 100 hourly SMA could call for a test of the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3536 low to 1.3944 high at 1.3740.

 

On the upside, an initial resistance is at 1.3900. Above 1.3900, the pair may test the 1.3944 high.


Also published on Medium.

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