EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro To Decline Below 1.1750 Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro is currently struggling to recover above 1.1800 against the US Dollar, and remains at risk.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8% (YoY).

 

German Retail Sales

Recently in the Euro Zone, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was positioned for a rise in sales by 3.2% compared with the same month a year ago.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of +3.2%, as there was a rise in the sales by +2.8%. Looking at the monthly change, there was a decline of 0.4% in sales, whereas the market was positioned for a 0.5% rise. The report added:

 

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in August 2017 was in real terms 2.8% and in nominal terms 4.7% larger than that in August 2016. The number of days open for sale was 27 in August 2017 and in August 2016.

 

The result was negative and most likely to impact the EUR/USD pair and could push it below the 1.1750 level in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a downside move from the 1.2000-1.1980 swing area against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.1860 and 1.1800 support levels and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

It traded as low as 1.1717 before starting a short-term correction. The pair has recovered and moved above the 1.1750 level. However, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2004 high to 1.1717 low is acting as a resistance.

 

On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1785 on the hourly chart. The trend line resistance is just below the 100 hourly SMA and the 1.1800 level.

 

Therefore, as long as the pair is below the 1.1800 level and the 100 hourly SMA, it might decline once again below 1.1750.

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