EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

EUR/USD Forecast – Can Euro Move Above This Vs US Dollar?

  • – The Euro is currently trading below 1.1950 against the US Dollar, and struggling to gain momentum.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor.
  • – The outcome was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sep 9, 2017) were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for an increase in the claims from the last reading of 298K to 300K for the week ending Sep 9, 2017.

 

The actual result was above the forecast of 300K, as there was a decline in claims from 298K to 284K. The 4-week moving average now stands at 263,250, which is around 13,000 more than the previous week’s unrevised average of 250,250. The report added that:

 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending September 2, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.

 

Moreover, the US CPI rate was also released, which exceeded forecast and came in at 1.9% (YoY), whereas the forecast was +1.8%.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro declined from the 1.2090 swing high against the US Dollar, and traded below the 1.2020 support area. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2000 level, 1.1950 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

It traded as low as 1.1837 from where it started a correction. The pair has already moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low. However, the pair faces many hurdles, including a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1920 on the hourly chart.

 

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1994 high to 1.1837 low is also acting as a resistance near 1.1920. Therefore, a break above 1.1920-1.1940 won’t be easy.

 

As long as the pair is below the 1.1940, sellers remain in control and there can be a retest of 1.1850 in the near term.

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