EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Declining Path Vs US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Following Declining Path Vs US Dollar

  • – The Euro is slowly and steadily moving lower towards 1.16800 against the US Dollar.
  • – There is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1760 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • – Today in the Euro Zone, the Current Account figure for June 2017 was released by European Central Bank.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast, as there was a trade surplus of €21.2B, less than the forecast of €27.3B.

 

Euro Zone Current Account

Today in the Euro Zone, the Current Account figure for June 2017 was released by European Central Bank. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of €27.3B (seasonally adjusted).

 

The actual result was below the forecast, as there was a trade surplus of €21.2B, less than the forecast of €27.3B. It was also a lot less than the last €30.5B. Looking at the cumulated current account on the year-over-year basis, there was a trade surplus of €336.5 billion. The report added that:

This development was due to decreases in the surpluses for goods (from €369.0 billion to €341.1 billion) and services (from €63.3 billion to €46.5 billion), and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €120.0 billion to €144.8 billion).

 

Overall, the EUR/USD pair may find it very difficult to break the 1.1750-60 resistance area in the near term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro after trading towards the 1.1850 level against the US Dollar faced offers and started declining. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.1820 support, which increased the bearish pressure and pushed the pair below the 1.1800 support area.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

 

It seems like the pair is following a declining pattern with resistance near 1.1780 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1760 forming on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

 

On the downside, an initial support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1661 low to 1.1758 high. However, the most important support is near 1.1680, which protected losses on many occasions earlier.

 

Overall, selling rallies close to the 1.1760-80 levels remain a good option with a stop above 1.1800 in the short term.

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