USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

USD/JPY Forecast – Can US Dollar Recover Vs Japanese Yen?

  • – The US Dollar recently traded lower to test the 111.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • – There is a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair.
  • – Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
  • – The outcome was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B.

 

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance

Today in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total for June 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was expecting a trade surplus of ¥439.8B compared with the last deficit of ¥203.4B.

 

The actual result was below the forecast of ¥484.7B, as the trade surplus was ¥439.8B, and the last reading was revised up from ¥203.4B to ¥204.2B. Imports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 15.5%, more than the forecast of 14.6%. Exports of goods and services in June 2017 were up by 9.7%, more than the forecast of 9.5%.

 

Overall, the USD/JPY pair has a chance to recover in the short term, but it faces resistances such as 112.30 and 112.80 on the upside.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar declined during the past few days and traded below the 112.80 and 112.30 support levels against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair even broke the 112.00 handle and the 100 hourly simple moving average to trade towards 111.50.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

 

The pair after trading as low as 111.54 started a recovery and broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at 111.85 forming on the hourly chart. It is currently attempting a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low.

 

The pair faces a monster hurdle on the upside near 112.30. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.57 high to 111.54 low along with the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned at 112.30.

 

Above 112.30, the next hurdle is at 112.80, which was a support earlier and now a resistance. So, if the pair has to continue higher, it has to break 112.30 and 112.80 for sustained gains.

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